Industry research firm Gartner just released its latest data on mobile phone sales for the first quarter of 2012. There are some interesting points to be pulled out of this report that I wanted to address. We have to work through a bit of data first, but we'll bring it back to BlackBerry very quick.
Samsung dominates Android. Gartner's data says that Korea-based Samsung shipped over 40% of all Android handsets last quarter. So that still leaves 60% of the market to other vendors, right? Yes, but according to Gartner none of these other vendors make up more than 10% of Android volume. None.
In terms of handset brands, Samsung is also now the #1 phone maker in the world, ahead of Nokia.
Nokia may have the #2 position in the market, but we need to remember that most of Nokia's volume is based on the dying Symbian OS. Very little is based on its Windows-powered future at this point. So, considering that we're looking at the death of the dumphone over the next few years, let's look at smartphone vendors and volumes.
Samsung is the #1 player, having shipped 38 million smartphones. Most of these are Android powered, with a smaller number of Bada OS phones.
Here's how smartphone market share looks, by vendor, based on the Gartner data:
- Samsung with 26% market share
- Apple with 23%
- BlackBerry with 7%
What does this data mean to BlackBerry?
Back in late Feb, I wrote a post about how we'll know if RIM/BlackBerry is successful. In that article I suggested that, as the mobile phone market moves purely to smartphones, BlackBerry could go from 3% market share to over 5%. I said they've got a shot at being the #4 player behind Samsung, Apple and Nokia (not necessarily in that order).
Take a look at what's happening to Nokia. Their Symbian business is falling apart. Sure, they have a Windows Phone strategy, but it's still early days and unclear how much market share it will earn them. What if Windows Phone doesn't stem the bleeding fast enough? Nokia could ultimately drop below RIM's market share. If RIM executes well on BlackBerry 10, they could actually be the #3 mobile phone vendor worldwide.
The Gartner data also reinforces how smart RIM was NOT to take the "easy solution" and adopt Android. So far there is only one winner in the Android camp, and it just so happens to be a Korean giant who controls a good chunk of its own supply chain. Going head to head with Samsung, using the same OS, is a tough battle. And if you chose to compete at the low end, you're fighting the Chinese giants, Huawei and ZTE.
Conclusion: Android is no place to be for RIM.
So RIM has chosen the tough path of BlackBerry 10. And from what we saw at BlackBerry World 2012 earlier this month, it's looking good. They need to ship (or they're toast), but this battle isn't over yet. You can't call it over when Nokia is still the #2 mobile phone company in the world on an aging system like Symbian.
As long as we get a decent quality release of BB10 from RIM this year, I think the company has a very good shot at being the #3 or #4 mobile phone vendor as the adoption of smartphones approaches the vast majority of all mobile phone sales.
Source: Gartner
Reader comments
Gartner data proves Android is no place to be for BlackBerry
thing is nokia, huawei, lg, zte provides phones very very cheap..RIM to be back on feet need to have an attractive OS on the cheap devices too..and btw not giving os 10 to latest phones is bad for them..they loose customers..well its up to them..i have a bold 9900 and previous 9700..but i am not a fanboy,and i dont feel pitty for any of samsung,rim,apple.RIM did mistake by not give update and they will pay it.
RIM can continue to offer BB7 devices whose cost is low and getting lower, featuring the compelling RIM-only features that are being integrated into BB10.
RIM's competitive advantage is their infrastructure. Only time will tell if BB10 is ALSO a competitive advantage: that will only come with adoption of the platform by users which in turn comes from developer support (that's both RIM and third-party developers).
RIM's infrastructure gives it significant value add for carriers. The idea of leveraging the infrastructure on other platforms is interesting... it may both undermine their handheld OS platform, and bolster it: if your friends have all moved on from BB, but you still LOVE your BB, but then all your friends could use BBM, wouldn't that keep you on BB? But likewise, there may be users who are only staying on BB because their friends are on BBM, and "can't" move away.
But here's the interesting thing: RIM can control the traffic on their network such that only devices running on specific networks i.e. US networks on US soil can use BBM... so in countries where they don't have these market-share issues, they can allow BBM on Android or iOS, but prohibit it in other markets. That's the power of the RIM network, which is a huge advantage for them.
Even if RIM did adopt Android, they could make it so only RIM-made Android devices had BBM support, but my experience with PlayBook OS 2.0 really convinces me that BB10 is already superior to Android and if RIM does't drop the ball, will retain it's superiority.
Android is a dog's breakfast, and only by having a single centralized oversight body like iOS has will it ever stand a chance at providing a superior user experience... and centralized oversight is absolutely the opposite of Android. But you have to take the bad (it's a MESS) with the good (FREEDOM! Terrible, Terrible FREEDOM!).
Android UI is to iOS UI as MySpace UI is (was) to FaceBook UI: initial enthusiasm devolves into entropy, vs. Simple / clean / consistent. Entropy has already hit Android UI, it's just a matter of degrees 'til it gets so bad people stampede for the door.
From where I sit, BB10 will fall nicely in the middle. I just hope that the PTB at RIM can nuance their management of App World: shut out the dreck / shovelware, allow freedom /innovation, but still try (gently) to "entice" or "foster" App UI consistency and adherence to good UI design principles. Apple goes overboard (well, not judging by the success of their platform!) and Android is too laissez-faire. Let Baby Bear run App World, while Papa is running App Store and Mamma is running Play.
What people are failing to realize is that while all of these vendors are selling android devices, their margins are continuing to shrink. For instance, ZTE and Huawei have noticed SIGNIFICANT drops in revenue since last year.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/25/us-zte-earns-idUSBRE83O0EB2012...
25% and over 50% respectively. Samsung and Apple control the smartphone market, pure and simple. They are taking the VAST majority of profits from it.
99% of profits is being captured by Samsung and Apple. Obviously these other manufacturers are not benefiting as well as hoped from Android. Is it a source of profit? Yes absolutely. People are buying Android devices in droves. But the problem is, there are dozens of Android devices, and similarly to google play, particular manufacturers can be lost in the noise.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57427811-37/apple-samsung-put-hammerlo...
RIM is doing the right thing by putting their bets on BB10. They are a small manufacturer (by comparison) and have to offer value added services that android simply cant provide (security being the best) to differentiate themselves from the pack.
From " How to lie with statistics " by Durrel Huff :
"What comes full of virtue from the statistician's desk may find itself twisted, exaggerated, oversimplified and destorted - through- selection by salesman, journalist, or advertising copywriter."
To qoute Mark Twain : " There are three kinds of lies : lies, damned lies , and statistics ".
If I would ever leave BB, I would choose only from two phones: iPhone and Samsung Galaxy III s. No Motorola, HTC, LG, etc. Definitely no Nokia - Symbian or Windows.
I think that, besides Samsung, all the other manufacturers using Android have lost the bet. Android is for them just a possibility not to die, by saving R&D costs for their own OS and marketing costs. But, on the long run, we'll see Samsung rule even more the Android market and see LG and Sony (and maybe Motorola and HTC) lose more market share. Huawei and LTZ (or whatever the name) will have limited impact, for low-end phones.
Nokia has also lost the bet. It's out of my options. Hell, it's even out of my mother's options: when her contract expires, she will probably buy an Android phone. I bet it's out of almost anybody's options. Windows Phone will not help them, their phones are not "Wow".
Therefore, I think Chris is right: on the long run, RIM may find themselves competing only with Samsung and Apple (in terms of shipped/sold phones). And if they make it right with BB10 phones (not only with the OS, but also with the marketing and helping OS 5-7 users to switch to BB10 faster), they will stay at no. 3 and more above Nokia or the other Android phones manufacturers.
But this means that BB10 phones will need to be "Wow"
I assume most the people who think RIM is dying are from north america. but, if one travells to south asia/south east asia, and not to mention the Africas and SA, he would have a different opinion. RIM surely is not dyin. yes, they might not be making as much money as Apple or samsung but they surely are not dyin. from where i come, India, people have no clue abt BB10. even with the current outdate OS BB is a huge brand here and they are actually selling well. RIM's decission to open 15 or more big stores in india recently is a testimony of how well the company is doing here. BB is a rage in Indonesia. these r just few examples. world has moved on beyond the US. raising middle class and spending in asia will be a huge impact on all consumer goods.
People who own the stock, in my opinion shouldnt panic now as i think this is the bottom for the stock. i would recommend averaging here at this level if one bought at higher levels. RIM stock should be treated as a long term play and not for short term trading. BB10 is surely going to put RIM back on the map in North America. RIM doesnt want to be No 1 in smart phone market. they know their customer base and they are going hard at that segment. and the smartphone market or mobile computing as thor would call it is big enough for RIM to have a decent market share and still not compete head on with apple or android.
and pls people who troll get out of here. we dont need your sad opinions. this is a BB fan site and we dont need people like you here.
Chris,
btw i think the article was great and had a clear logic in what u were tryin to say. i dont know abt others but i completely agree with it. not adopting to android was a smart move by RIM. they are the masters of their own destiny and dont depend on google or MS like samsung and nokia. Thor said it in his first interview "its only us and the other fruit company who have their own OS"
"People who own the stock, in my opinion shouldnt panic now as i think this is the bottom for the stock. i would recommend averaging here at this level if one bought at higher levels. RIM stock should be treated as a long term play and not for short term trading."
I have to strongly disagree with your premise. A simple look at the charts show that RIMM has lost 90% of its value and the investor has every right to panic, as well as the institutional investor.
"Finding the total percentage gain or loss on a portfolio requires a few simple calculations. First, you should understand how percentage gains or losses are found on an individual security. To find the net gain or loss, subtract the purchase price from the current price and divide the difference by the purchase prices of the asset. For example, if you buy a stock today for $50 and tomorrow it is worth $52, your percentage gain is 4% ( ($52 - $50)/$50 )."
Link: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer/07/portfolio_calculations.asp
So let's do the math for a stock holder since at least 2008. A long play for sure. To be conservative let's pick a lower 'high' point.
(120-11)/120 = 91% LOSS stock value for those that are long.
So folks the Investors of all sizes have good reason to be VERY skeptical of RIMM and it future performance.
Look at this chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/lookup;_ylc=X3oDMTFyZGprc2s3BGtleXcDUklNTQRtaWQ...
The short term EMA crossed over back in lat Jan. 2011. It has been on a downward slide ever since. These are facts folks not emotional RIMM doom & gloom. A one day snapshot shows (http://finance.yahoo.com/lookup;_ylc=X3oDMTFyZGprc2s3BGtleXcDUklNTQRtaWQ...) a downward trend still and reflects an upward tick towards the end of the day. That is not a trend to buy but showing market volume.
The BB has to beat Android argument is a straw man. BB should focus on just producing a quality product on time and meet its marketing target dates, product target dates and delivery a quality product out the chute the FIRST time. If they stumble third time may be the charm as they proceed to join Atari.
Look at their customer base and work on picking up a few percentage points of the market. They have new management. As posted earlier and I agree, this will take time. Q4 12' sales will have to reveal their numbers by Q1 of 13'. The stock value should hold from its present bleeding at that time and maybe a long term play should be a target of climbing back up to maybe $15-$18 a share. If the stock holder never sold and owned stock at the $50+ valuation then I am sorry for your loss having had the same experience it really sucks. It becomes an emotionally charged topic. Taking one's own advice is difficult but at this time I would hold on for the ride. Watch when the short term EMA crosses over the long term EMA and you should see an upward trend and the end of the bottom for RIMM.
Until one faces the reality of how much RIMM has actually pissed away on their own stock value you will never grasp how badly the management team has blown so many opportunities. The CEO and the executive team should have been fired by the board of director and the stock holders. Since apathy grips this nation the stock holders sat aside and watched as their investments vaporized.
For this I have no sympathy for the investor(s). When I read and watch how it all has slide down the porcelain vortex the word malfeasance comes to mind.
No company has ever recovered from a 90% drop in share value as far as I am aware of.
Thanks to Gardner for expressing in cold hard numbers what we already knew: RIM adopting android wasn't just throwing in the towel.... It's suicide.
This wole blackberry situation is eerily similar to Palm a few years so. Bb10 = WebOS I'm afraid
Not even close to palm. Keep the doom and gloom off this place.
How is it not close? 2 companies who each, at one point, completely dominated their market segment. They each became almost obsolete by tech standards, and each made one last ditch effort to get back in the game. Each showed off a marvellous, advanced mobile OS. It wasn't enough to save Palm, and it won't be enough to save RIM. They've got to do something more.
Poor BlackBerry fans, they want to see the brand beat the sheep and the droids. That is not going to happen anytime soon.
On the positive side, It's still good to see that RIM stayed true to what it is, instead of adopting Android.
What the editor of this article seems to be missing, is that RIM is already competing with low end Android makers by introducing entry level smartphones, which is a good opportunity, IMO. However, I don't see this strategy as sustainable in the long term, as these entry level models are still based on the aged BB OS. Probably they just want to squeeze all the juice they can get from BB OS before it's phased out, hopefully by then, RIM will still be in the market.
Even if bb10 comes out. There will be a forth entry to support, more revenue, more sales, awesomeness, ya see? :D
I'm on Android for the simple reason that RIMM couldn't keep up with Apple and Samsung... in both hardware and software. Software wise I believe blackberry 10 has the potential to indeed leapfrog the competition, hardware wise... we'll just have to wait and see (dual-core or quad-core?, battery life, quality camera, mics and speakers, etc).
If they deliver on both hardware and software, marketing will be the key. Winning back ex-blackberry users isn't going to be easy...
Good Read ..... hell ... I would love to have 5% of the world market .... nothing is wrong with that!
Plus software revenue ....
RIM is far from dead. It has plenty of subscribers/(loyal) customers to survive at 3rd or 4th place. They are the underdog now. Which means the real focus for failure should now be on the big guys. The Android apps are largely filled with ads and security is becoming a real mess. Not even sure if grouping everything up under one large "Android" umbrella is even very useful. Samsung manufactures hardware-phones, laptops, tvs amongst various other things. As for Apple, I hate to say it, but with Jobs no longer around, the company is already declining. The adapter switch for the iPhone 5 will be it first big mistake. Watch...
Institutions are selling RIMM as quickly as they can get rid of it. It's a toxic stock right now hovering around $11,
Many of us can remeber the glory days of years gone by, unfortunately the new administration are a bunch of technocrats who say the right thing but unfortunately have been unable to execute.
The carnage continues,
Unable to execute? Do you have a playbook?? How long have jim and mike been gone? Seriously... Is anyone even going to give these guys a chance to actually deliver? Or do you guys just want them out of the picture before they've even had a decent shot at delivering???
ps. "RIM is known for blah bla blah blah blah and they always blah ba blah..." yeah, that was then, this is now. Let's just wait and see. OK?
Table 2 proves Chris' points. Symbian is a dying OS, and the drop from 2011 to 2012 for Symbian was a much larger percent than the reduction of RIM sales in that period. Symbian will continue to die, and RIM will grow starting with BB10 release. Windoze will be in the noise range as an unproven system. Even the wildly fanatical Paul Thurrott of Windows Weekly podcast is talking about the potential failure of Windows on the cell platform.
RIM still has to deliver a fine set of BB10 devices with a strong ecosystem, on time, but it looks like both of these success factors are being developed aggressively and RIM is committed to this delivery. Stock price will follow the successful delivery.
RIM ROLLS OVER TROLLS...
The game changer for RIM needs to come from a partnership for content.
Enter Facebook. With 900 million subscribers and the backing of wall street, a partnership will shine 900 million lights on RIM.
The major points not addressed are: Samsung is vulnerable as they do not own their own proprietary software to make the machines run. also, there is a great deal of fluidity in these numbers. What a difference a year makes. There phones are being practically given away which drives down the profit margin. Now that Google has their business and is the sole supplier, lets see how long it takes for the license fees start getting jacked up and how Samsung will deal with that. They can sell ten times the number of phones, but if their profit margin is 1/10th then the companies are equally profitable. Apple and BB own that cost. Google is going to make a move to leverage their OS to make it more profitable.
Excellent points, thank you :)
The way I look at it, all those bitching in the comments here right now are like me before BB10 was announced; they're on another platform just waiting for BB10 to come out so they can come back to the fold. They are frustrated and just want BB10 now! So whatever they say, just look at them, smile, and then nod. :)
Users Need bb10 to hit the stores. Got tired of Android, it is unelegant OS, messy app environment, etc, etc complete mess to be honest!
Never cared about bb, but fell in love with PB simplicity and elegance once I compared with android tabs. I have PB for a bit more than one month, and after the experience stopped using my Android OS phone.
RIM took the bold road. RIM needs to take Nokia failed experience seriously with the lessons learned from project MeeGo.
I KNOW this is challenging for BB but after three months of using the PB I would really like to see a 8.5" PB.
It's a real pain to use the 7" for analyzing financials. and help us out with a scroll bar for heaven's sake so I can quit 'accidental' hitting all those freaking ads!
Oh wait that's why BB is sucking hind teat....oh never mind.... nice to day dream though....
If RIM sells 9.9M in the first quarter that should be a success given that any BlackBerry fan is waiting for BB10.
lol, blackberry is #7 but nope,
1. samsung
2. apple
3. blackberry
I think this is a bit biased? lol
RIM is actually #4 (Table 2), but Chris is praying that Symbian will further declide below RIM.... (he needs to make sure his shares keep some value)
yes the key word is "praying" just what I'm currently doing exactly. LOL.
again table 2 is not showing manufacturers...in table 2 even operating system called "Research in Motion" is going away...
What's really striking in this report is the magnitude of the missed opportunity RIM has engineered for itself. RIM sells 15M handsets in a typical good quarter, and yet we see 429M units being bought worldwide. If RIM had only maintained market share, the stock would be trading at $200 a share.
It only reinforces the reasons for Mike and Jim to step down and marketplace "hole" RIM will have to dig its way out of.
....and it all comes down to BB10.......!!!
I wonder if they've thought of a plan "B" ?
don't get confused with 419M mobile devices versus 144M smartphones.... RIM only plays in the smartphone market.
and the Play Book is NOT part of the data?
There is one excellent opportunity for RIM.
It looks like Samsung is the go-to brand for android. This means companies like HTC can license BB10 in China.
Going to happen at all.
Who is "Other" in the list? They make-up a large chunk.
Also, market share is volatile. With a great product BB10 can take market share from the low selling android brands.
This list also shows feature phones. BB10 will take some of that pie.
I can see BB10 quickly at 10%...
"Other" is mainly the Chinese market and as soon as they are represented and reported better, they will take over some traditional names. RIM will be lucky if they are #3 next year.
Hmmm... strange that Chris showed table 1 (ALL mobile devices) for his article instead of table 2 (ONLY smartphones) which is the real market RIM is in but shows a weaker viewpoint. Not very objective reporting.
problem is table #2 does it break it down by manufacturers, you seem to miss the fact that article is saying there is only 1 android manufacturer that is doing well while all the rest are struggling.
Wow the article really sounds like someone from Blackberry itself had written it. Great job!
BB currently appear to be selling at about 10 million units per quarter. Hopefully BB10 handsets will start to hit the sell numbers in the Q4 of this year and the transition over to BB10 from existing BBOS5/6/7 users is complete in 18 to 24 months. When BB10 launches and new (and returning adopters) looking for something different pickup BB10 they will be MOST welcome at this time!! If RIM can continue to be profitable AND app developers make money selling their wares then RIM will do well and win back marketshare. However I think the next 2 quarters could be very bleak from an investor/financial/stock price perspective.
/Device agnosticism or bust!
Hey Chris, you can also mention that $RIMM is trading at $11 and now has a market cap of 'just' $6B
Still trying to mislead readers into buying this piece of garbage?!?
I know you're getting paid to do it, but your act is getting old already.
Did you miss the point of a bb fan Site? Maybe it's your act that is getting old. Just something to think about, lol
Torch 9860, Playbook
boy you are really dumb.
Responding to the idiot user #19
.
Take your doom and gloomy shit elsewhere.
I know you are responding to someone else's post I want no part of that but the chart for RIMM looks bad period.
http://finance.yahoo.com/lookup;_ylc=X3oDMTFyZGprc2s3BGtleXcDUklNTQRtaWQ...
There is no closure in the gap between the two EMA traces and there is NO trend of any upside. I know RIMM knows this as well. But that has not stopped them from miserable performance over the last three years with OS 6 & 7.
This is NOT doom and gloom as you call it but merely a part of investment reality. I want them to succeed as a business because I am a capitalist and not a blind fanboy of any one brand; well except Ford.........ha....just kidding......
@19cbb: yes we know your life sucks so much so that you come to BB fansite and troll go get a life looser
Samsung adopting BB10 is not a very good idea. They would want to "tweak" the UI. Nope, leave them out of this.
1++++
You said it!! :)
So if RIM were to partner with Samsung and bb10 is a hit, it could have apple and android shaking in their boots.
Not going to happen at all.
I love how all the analysts say Android is taking over. iOS only comes on one phone, Blackberry OS 6-7 only comes on one manufacturers phones. Don't tell me that the Android OS is the best, when they have it on 400 different phones. Stats can be screwed based on what you want to read out of them: having more out there doesn't make it better.
There is a lot of truth about this,
and one more major thing is, that all android devices are basically the same. There is no real outstanding innovative Smartphoen from all of those (1000?) devices. Yeah ok sometimes there is a ps-controller instead of anything, but u think thats innovative? All of those guys hopped on that one horse, but there are no real riders among them. Blackberry always hold its own drive.
I think they will get back on. They should work around the bb-option so a broader mass can adopt their phones.
there are a lot of different devices.
Huawei Boulder ~100 Euro here and is working not really bad for a the price.
Even the keyboard is not as bad, I would prefere it compared to a low low end BB (like 8520 or something similar).
used it a few days, of course it is not better than my 9900 but 1/4 to 1/5 of the price...
The security updates and the OS upgrades is the issue I have with Android.
And there are almost no bb (bar qwerty(z) keyboard) which are not low end, with more than 320*240 display resolution and a 1Ghz processor and enough RAM...
Moto pro+ (droid..) would have been almost "my" device but it came to late on the market and with some issues. Like Motorolla is kind of dead here in Europe. (extreme bad update politic and bad hardware bugs (moto 2, no mp3) and a lot less devices as in US)...
"having more out there doesn't make it better."
and being ONE phone and ONE manufacturer neither!
I predict RIM will be #3 this time next year
wishful prediction but I like it. :-)
What really could mess with your head is if Samsung decides to put BB10 on their devices down the road if it's licensed out and is a big hit? Who is to say Samsung would stick with Android long term?
for this they still have Bada.
Meego (or how is it called at the moment?) would still be possible or an own android version, too. (like Amazon fire)
phones may be not now but I can see them making tablets or may even use it in their TV's etc
Samsung won't put BB10 on their devices. It's not going to happen.
its definitley interesting to see the shift from dumbphones to smartphones, as the total phone shipments fell a tiny bit, the smartphone shipments went up by 50% which is proof the dumbphone/featurephone is dying.
as for what the first chart shows, its says those that are saying `RIM is dead` need to include nokia, motorloa, LG, HTC and some others in their convo, as all their shipments dropped. sure marketshare is good, but in an expanding market, i figure shipments is a slightly steadier (and generally more fiscally related) indicator.
Android is not a manufacturers, it's a platform split between too many manufacturers after Samsung is taking the lion share. And that's why it's bad.
The biggest news there is that the mobile phone Boom in the face of the world wide recession is now over.
I don't know how on earth you can put such a positive spin on this data. No matter which way you look at the data, RIM is being destroyed by Android and Apple. Take a look at Table 2 in your source. Worldwide smartphone market share:
Android: 56%, today from 36% a year earlier
Apple: 23%, from 17% a year earlier
...
RIM: 7%, from 13% a year earlier.
Android is absolutely killing it and I bet Google is positively thrilled. BlackBerry on the other hand has been gutted.
Guess you missed the concept "We'll settle for being third right now".. the post wasn't about overthrowing Android or Apple. It was about the third position that some are expecting MS to take over, stating that if RIM can effectively move they'll own it rather than MS.
I didn't miss that at all, I just possess the ability to think critically and analyse data properly. There is zero factual data in the post by Chris U to support the idea that RIM will become the #3. If anything, the data points to continued decline for RIM.
I guess you never read the little blurb at the bottom of investment advice and stats. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Seeing how this is a BlackBerry fan site, I think the BlackBerry fans generally assume that things will turn around and BlackBerry 10 will cause a reversal of fortune. Obviously the numbers look bad now, but that is because they are still trying to sell devices with a 10+ year-old OS. You are assuming that since their market share dropped it will continue to drop. It may - and that may be a more prudent bet, but this is a fan site for god's sake. Go somewhere else with your doom and gloom.
+1
Read the title of the article!!! Sheesh! Chris is basically saying RIM was right in not adopting Android because that platform has just one clear winner; Samsung. Everyone else is just feeding at the bottom.
In what way does Samsung being successful with Android mean RIM was right not to pick it? Who is to say that if RIM had picked Android it wouldn't also have been successful, and be stealing market share away from Samsung?
RIM is feeding at the bottom right now and it is increasingly getting worse.
I know what a logically constructed argument looks like, and that mish-mash of words Chris has written sure as hell isn't one.
Note that RIM is doing better than Sony, Motorola, and HTC.
But that's not because they chose a certain platform.
+1000. WinningWithLogic, I agree with almost everything you wrote. The article makes inferences that are based neither on the presented data nor based on any logic.
It may not be logical but I like it. LOL.
You're not winning and both your interpolation and extrapolation of data is based on what you want to believe.
You choose to see in the data what you want to believe.
The only one winning on android is Google. Everyone else is stuck twisting in the wind of retail.
Also, android is a garbage platform.
So, take your "logic" and go "win" somewhere else.
You are all mixing up manufacturers and platforms. The author of the article says "how smart RIM was NOT to take the "easy solution" and adopt Android" and "Android is no place to be for RIM"
Well, as the data show there are successful manufacturers who adopted Android. So, it's not Android that would make RIM successful or unsuccessful had it adopted Android, but the company's business practices (e.g. controlling the supply chains).
Hence, we can't really say RIM was smart not to adopt a certain platform.
In other words, we know that BBs' share went down from 13% to 6.9% in the smartphone market due to their decision to stick to BBOS.
But what we don't know is what would have happened if RIM decided to switch to Android. RIM market share could have:
1) gone up,
2) stayed the same,
3) dropped less than the fall in the share of BBOS,
4) dropped by the same percentage points as BBOS
5) dropped more than the drop in BBOS' share
But somehow the article author asserts us it's only #5 which would have happened. How he arrives at the conclusion is a mystery.
Bingo. You said it perfectly.
what important for me not the OS but the apps that support of the OS, like when in desktop I choose windows over others because it's the platform with more choice of app then others.
smartphone is not a mere phone but it's phone + computer, it's like a swiss army knife for me to do everything not just call or sms or bbm but much more.
so, if the OS start being left by many app developer and it's seldom being update and the developer of the OS can not keep up with how fast the other OS has progress it's better for them to leave the OS to currently most popular OS (android).
although samsung the only one who most successful in using android which much more success then others does not mean that new competitor can not come into play in the field, it's just a matter of strategy, and don't forget that RIM have BBM which is the most reason why many people still stick to Blackberry.
so, just imagine what if there are many kind of blackberry (nokia n samsung use this approach to dominate market) with android OS inside (and it's apps) + BBM, I think that will remove samsung from the top. and at the same time still develop BBOS like samsung do with bada. thanks for reading it, n sorry for my poor english as I'm not native speaker.
No, we're not. Samsung is a very major supplier to Apple, so overall they probably have the largest share of the entire smartphone market if you include all the parts in iPhones that are really Samsung. Therefore, whatever platform they decide on gets the best technology first, in the hugest manufacturing volumes at the lowest cost. At the moment Samsung needs Apple so they don't risk coming under monopoly legislation.
However, Samsung's weakness is that they depend on a different vendor's OS for success, though they have both Android and iOS (You could almost describe Apple as a value added reseller for Samsung...). RIM cannot match them on manufacturing cost or technology, but they have the opportunity to build an enterprise-friendly infrastructure around a superior OS. Samsung software has typically been much less good that that of other vendors.
If RIM went with Android, they would have nothing they could leverage against Samsung. With QNX, they are already in places Samsung cannot reach.
Wrong again. Samsung is primarily a hardware manufacturer. Its dependence on a different vendor's OS is not a weakness.
First, they can choose which platform to rely on; and as Samsung is the biggest mobile manufacturer, it's actually the OS vendors who are probably more dependent on Samsung (as you yourself argued with the Apple example).
Second, if Samsung indeed felt weakened or threatened by reliance on other vendors' OSs, what would stop them from investing more in their own or an open-source platform (Tizen, Bada, etc)? They are actually working on Tizen (with some capable partners by the way), but that's hardly on the top of their priority list.
Third, many people seem to make so much of QNX. Mind you that it has been around for 30 or so years and has not sparked much interest among mobile device manufacturers.
Besides, you can see comments like "QNX is a real threat to the competitors. Everybody is just shaking in their boots because QNX is about to take over the market".
I am sorry but if this was the case, RIM with its market cap of 6 bln and shares trading below the tangible book value would have been long bought by a company that felt threatened. I know there is a great potential of the OS, but at this stage, it's nothing more than another Tizen, Meego, Maemo, Firefox OS, etc. Unless it captures some market share, its potential is not of much relevance.
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In any case, the point was that Chris' arguments are just speculations and, quite frankly, are not logically rigorous.
We don't know the counterfactual, that is, what would have happened to RIM had it adopted Android.
If you look at the data, none of the Android manufacturers' market share shrank by half as in the case with RIM!!!
But Chris somehow makes an assertion that RIM was smart not to adopt Android and hence RIM avoided a greater fall. Again, how he arrived at this conclusion is unknown and the data do not support this premise of his at all.
In that case why doesn't Samsung run everything on Bada? Also, why do you, when you disagree with me, respond to things I never said?
Unix is 40 years old, and when it was 30 nobody thought it would end up in mobile phones. That isn't an argument. QNX itself is not a solution, except that RIM controls it totally. It is the services built on top of QNX that matter. Porting RIM's Enterprise features to a modern platform potentially allows those same features to turn up in other areas - like car management systems. Hyundai's vehicle telematics program is a good example.
Google wants to provide the IT infrastructure for self drive and remote managed cars because they know it will be huge. RIM are trying to beat them to it because QNX is already vehicle hardened.
However, this is all much longer term than Wall Street comprehends; though it wouldn't be the first time that Wall Street has talked down a company expecting the price to rise dramatically in a 12 month period, while quietly acquiring shares at the low base. In assessing the worth of a company, it is necessary to look beyond the share price. This is the philosophy that has made Warren Buffet very rich, while bank traders have made enormous losses.
What you failed to realize is that Chris' assumptions are based on other data and just not the Gartner. The fact that Nokia has shifted away from Symbian OS to Windows Phone will mean that Symbian's share will continue to fall and it opens the opportunity for RIM to move up and he did say if they do BB10 well.
Same will happen to RIM when they shift to BB10 from BB5/6/7. Their share will decline as fewer people will buy the older OS phones. And RIM/BB10 will have to compete with Windows 8, which may be a touch task.
All BB phones (even on old OS) are all even now under the Smartphone category, so BB will not have this impact.
But Nokia for sure is losing big chunk of its normal devices to smartphones category (to other providers, tomorrow that chunk can come towards BB also if BB10 becomes successful).
+1. This is why we need to support RIM when they release BB10 given BB10 has to be good.
You missed the original concept, then in your rebuttal missed it again.
Nice!
Wow, you're so witty!
and so are you!
...winning with sarcasm
Two points I'd like to make. One, the spread between the 10 & 50 day EMA is huge with NO signs of the short EMA crossing over anytime soon. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/lookup;_ylc=X3oDMTFyZGprc2s3BGtleXcDUklNTQRtaWQ...
Second it is rather embarrassing to by sucking hind teat to an outdated Symbian OS!
RIMM needs to deliver to goods just to stay competitive. I am convinced by looking at the data and the chart technical that if RIMM fails to deliver in a stellar fashion and stumbles like they have the last three years then the Institutional Investors will dump RIMM and thus drive down the share even further.
They need to deliver ON TIME and their OS QA folks better do a a better then then ever before like their very livelihood depends on it......because it does.
I'd hate to be a "former BB engineer" looking for a job. Who would want you???
Gutted might be too strong a term, but I agree that the data points require some pretty elastic stretching to be good news. Maybe the best news is that it isn't any worse, as we wait for BB10.
Android is killing it NOW.
Just like Apple was killing it a few years ago. And RIM a few years before that, and Nokia a few years before that.
But Android isn't having an easy ride. The OS was so cheap to use manufacturers have been able to undercut the opposition since its introduction, but licensing fees from patent lawsuits are having an impact.
That and the fact Google couldn't care less about the quality of the OS or App store should see it crash within 5 years.
And the next big thing will take over. Who knows, it might even be BB10.
Android is turning into a bit of a minefield. It's fragmented, performance is iffy, and security issues are mounting by the day.
Yes, there may well be room for BB10 in the market.
good news! first!
Hey Chris U - RIMM at 11.07 at close today. We are 5-6 months from BB10 release. What are the chances RIMM can survive in-tact if they drop below $10 in the next 2-3 months. What if the drop below $10 before their next earnings call?
They can survive because they've got over $2.5B stashed away. But they are a skeleton of what they used to be. I would guess that if they drop to $9 they will be bought out.
They won't "get bought out" just like that.
I can see it being bought out, but RIM has to go through this last ditch desperate effort before this happens. investors won't give up their shares until there is definitive evidence that rim is going to fail. most knowledgeable people I have read give them one chance in three that they will be around in two years. 2.5 billion dollars seem like a lot, but it will go away fast if bb10 is a failure.
I'll do my best to give you a decent reply.
http://finance.yahoo.com/lookup;_ylc=X3oDMTFyZGprc2s3BGtleXcDUklNTQRtaWQ...
There is a HUGE gap between the 50 and 10 day EMA. RIMM is still trending downwards. Yes they have a cash supply and that is good, for R&D and and BB10 marketing; they will certainly need it. The bigger picture is that Institutional Investors like the Vanguard Midcap fund index and many others will be negatively impacted by this downward trend.
Will Institutional Analyst keep the tens of thousands of shares or sell them thus driving down the price even further?
For RIMM's sake I hope the Marketing and CIO (from the development side) have a strong plan.
To paraphrase from Apollo 13 "FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION!"