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News & Rumors

Bert Nordberg stepping down from BlackBerry board next month

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Prominent investment group Kahn Brothers increase stake in BlackBerry by 80%

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Why BlackBerry is up 50% in the last month

BBRY
By Chris Umiastowski on 17 Jan 2014 03:02 pm EST
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If you’ve been are a shareholder of BlackBerry over the past few years it’s mostly been painful. But if you’ve held the shares over the last month it’s been very rewarding. BlackBerry bottomed out below $6 in December and is now rallied about 50% to almost $9 (USD) today.

The big move started when John Chen quarterbacked the latest earnings call. I posted my thoughts on that already, so I won’t rehash it here. But suffice to say the momentum has continued despite no real change in the financial picture and no important company news of any kind really.

Following last quarter’s conference call I wrote, “Betting on the stock is a bet on the company’s ability to stem the losses on hardware while building up new revenue in the enterprise business. If you’re convinced they can succeed, you should probably buy the stock (and you get any potential BBM upside for free at this point). Otherwise stay away.”

I believe my comment was accurate and what we’ve seen happen is indeed a series of bets by investors on the company’s future as an enterprise software & services play. In a nutshell, more people have become John Chen believers. We have to get past the painful history of BlackBerry pretty much losing out in the hardware market. That’s over, and if they are to ever build up a strong BlackBerry 10 ecosystem it’s going to take years, and will only happen after they stabilize and grow the business via other means.

I know it sounds like a big deal to say the stock is up 50%, but it’s really par for the course in the volatile land of technology investing - especially if the story is one of life or death as it has been in the case of BlackBerry. The stock is up 50%, but the market value is only up about $1.5 billion. To put this in perspective, BlackBerry’s trailing 12 month sales are over $8 billion, but they’ve been on the decline. If we annualize last quarter’s sales then the company is doing a run rate of about $4.8 billion.  Most profitable software companies trade at a multiple several times that of sales. So if BlackBerry can get back to being profitable (even at a lower revenue figure), it should end up with a market value much higher than it has today.

Simply put, the stock has moved a lot in percentage terms but it’s still a case where I think it’s either going much higher (over the course of the next 2 years) while it simultaneously faces risks that could push it much closer to zero.

Owning the stock today is still a bet on the transition of BlackBerry as an almost pure-play in enterprise software and services, with free upside on BBM, which I think gets no value in the market right now.

Topics: BBRY Editorial

132 comments

SiyaBerry

Go BlackBerry!

C00121417 

jojo beaconsfield

Check out this new thread,just posted minutes ago,..$$$the new Blackberry and the truth is about to hit the fan$$$ ,Click on the Link and enjoy the read.This is a big 'open your eyes' in your face, analyst about BB and why the stock jumped today.

lndn

The explanation is the fact BBRY became 'speculative stock' some time ago. So, it doesn't matter exactly what is going on with BlackBerry as a company operating on i.a. mobile market. Financial markets will always do what they want and need to do with 'speculative stock' at a specific time. Don't forget also that even the new tax year starting in some parts of the world now in January could make the BBRY fluctuates.

[...] First ever London smartphone story powered by Z10: www.blackassistant.com

jojo beaconsfield

I just hope that when a guy tears apart the shorts ,and makes a very good case as citron did that people will listen, and BB gets their act together.BB is worth a hell of a lot of money!!!

Puz_zled

Agreed, there was a lot of tax loss selling through fall 13, and there is now some re purchasing , also obviously a huge close out of short positions since the last earnings call where Chen made his first impressions. So, overall not too surprising there is a move up on no real news

Posted via CB10

mandony

Regret, we have not yet seen (though only a month of new administration) any action to change the perception that BB is a dead or dying company.

No ads. No events.

It is hard for the jaded press to boost the company if there is not much to report on like increased PURCHASED Handset sales or new PAID Servers.

mandony

Chris,

Some time ago, there were many of us stockholders who were shocked to hear the news the company was close to become private. The proposed offer was for our stocks to be bought back at $9/share.
It was a great relief for me to learn the deal could not go though.

Having faith, I watched the news and decided to wait it out. The company still had cash in the bank and still had some real value other than software and services. Recently the jaded news media and stock analysts have even said that the fate of BB death is 'greatly exaggerated' (in the words of Mark Twain).

This week the stock price came back to the $9 price per share.
IMO, with new management, there a possibility for the stock price to double, to $18, within the year.

sin-co

I was wondering when you were going to post something Chris, I was just thinking this today!
I was thinking the stock rose because of BlackBerry completing the transaction by Fairfax?

Kevin Michaluk

Looks like the stock is up 5% again today on the word of those German sales.. but I think we know the REAL reason.

SiyaBerry

What is the REAL reason?

C00121417 

SiyaBerry

OK. But just because of 1000 devices? C'mon...

C00121417 

nhanken

Not only that but it's going to generate yearly fees for the services, which is the most important thing.

Posted via CB10

IJKBB10

Exactly! The BES 10 Server is the key cause they ll get license fees for managing android and iOS devices along with BB 10 phones.

SiyaBerry

Fees for 1 0 0 0 devices... wow! huge! Still waiting for companies who order at least 10.000... would be great to win Walmart again!!!

C00121417 

HaberNik

It's coming and it's going. My bank (employer and North American bank) just rolled out BlackBerry upgrade program starting this month (at least 8000 commercial account managers), so I now have q10 for work and z30 for home. However, I know that OPG is getting rid of all BlackBerry phones; as the die they are not being replaced. If only BlackBerry could have opened with the z30 and q10 with 10.2. It would have been a different story.

Tapped and flicked from my BlackBerry Z30!

momantm

OPG is too cheap to buy ANY phones. Bad example.

Posted via CB10

yasmar

I think he is referring to the comment he left on that article :)

Yasch22

+1000
This is an excellent report (though it needs a bit of editing for typos, missing verbs, etc.).

jojo beaconsfield

Not the full analyst's paper, which you will have to read 12 pages of ,but well worth it.Click my link to go directly there.He has BB covered top to bottom.

Yasch22

I have read the whole thing, jojo. One of the parts I liked best was the analysis of the BES division. BB has 80,000 customers (31,000 for BES 10), while customers for the three leading competitors combined (Good, AirWatch, MobileIron) have less than 27,000 combined. But these competitors are valued by Wall St. at more than $1 billion each. Still, the vast majority of North American analysts just don't see this side of the business, and insist on thinking of BB exclusively as a handset business.

jojo beaconsfield

Exactly ,and the tide is about to change,I love the way he tears down the other guys who bad mouth BB.Just about, the very best I could ask for.

jojo beaconsfield

I think that works out to 3 times the # of all the others combined, at 80,000 BES customers, as he says.the ratings of BES also blows the completion away.If they have another service they are not happy with it.

Yasch22

Exactly. BES 10 gets 4.0 out of 5 from 40,372 reviews.
Good Technologies: 3.0 out of 6,824 reviews.
AirWatch: 3.0 out of 615 reviews.
MobileIron: 2.9 out of 818 reviews.

jojo beaconsfield

Then again if you look at how many 1 stars the comp gets compared to 5 stars they outnumber the 5 stars compared to BB which has many more 5 stars compared to 1 star.The rating is flawed as the comp should be rated much lower.

Yasch22

Yeah, but you're still teasing us about something, CBK. I've got the feeling you're practically bursting to tell the world about something you & the folks at CrackBerry know.

Mirk

I see your comment... lol... take all the credit eh

oddboy

It's true, Kevin has been blogging like mad in the last few days! great to see you back in action Kevin!

nt300

The Real Reason:
BlackBerry rallies; Citron thinks shares are worth at least $15
http://seekingalpha.com/news/1514341-blackberry-rallies-citron-thinks-sh...

neteng1000

Wasn't that yesterday's news?

Posted via CB10

1roguecanuck

If that is the real reason Kevin going to expect you to post dozens of articles every day. We need this stock much higher!

Posted via CB10

Iggy City

Kevin goes on vacation, the company falls apart.

Kevin comes home and starts unloading article after article....the company starts rising.

There's your reason. :p

NotGoodIMO

Kevin is actually an iPhone fan, Blackberry is his work, iPhone is what he really likes. That's why he publicly overpaid for his iPhone 5s last year (OK, I know that he also bought some very expensive BB10 phone recently, that's just to calm down the masses). Now my assumption is that his iPhone is either broken or may be he is realizing how much better BB10 is, no matter what type of keyboard you put on iPhone.

birdman_38

Thank you for telling us what kind of fan Kevin Michaluk is.

JuiciPatties

Thank God the link wasn't to promote his "bros in yoga pants" channel. :)

BerryRipe

Lmao...I had that thought for a moment when clicking the link.

Keep The Faith  BlackBerry Q10 

axllebeer

Might have something to do with it but in all reality, the stock has gone up in the last few months on the "belief" that Chen is doing some good. And he IS doing good. But we have yet to see the return of the changes he is still in the process of making. We can't yet, he's not done. And if he was, there hasn't been enough time to show it.

Don't misunderstand me, things are looking up here, but the full basis for it doesn't exist, yet. And I'm not talking about that 5%.

Posted from my CB10 via the power of "Q"

nabollocks

I think this jump has more to do with the expectations surrounding the 10.2.1 release. I personally think this is going to be a game changer for BlackBerry.... definitely worth 15 per share.

Posted via CB10

R Field

lol really Kevin not the Citron report issued today but this? "That's not the reason the stock is up. Silly people. It's because I started blogging like crazy on CrackBerry yesterday and today. :)"

mandony

Kevin,

Since December, if you watch the daily price swings, plus or minus five percent a day is not unusual.

NamelessStar

Love the write up been waiting for this as usual

Posted via CB10 on my blazing fast Z30

just jack

BlackBerry on tsx is closing in on 10 bucks. Your right kevin, nothing on the business side has changed other than the leadership has put a great plan in place for growth, cutting costs, re establishing market presence and dominance, finally turning a profit. Essential the exact thing a great CEO is supposed to do. I can't say how happy I am to finally see someone like Mr Chen at the head of this company.

I have been a share holder for a while, got on board just before BB10 because I know the platform and technology is great and will work.

For those who just see the numbers and say "why is BlackBerry stock going up" it is the same reason it went down, the stock market is all about speculation. Investors buy and sell based on what they think is going to happen not on what does happen because at that point its too late.

Posted Via Q10 Super Phone

skibnik

Perhaps you should give credit where it's due? All these moves that blackberry has made were started by Thorston not Chen he hasn't been in charge long enough to have implemented half of what your giving him credit for.

Z10 Running 10.2.1.1925 Take that Mr App Gap!

jojo beaconsfield

I'm going to lock you in the closet if you don't get on the Band Wagon.LOL

Superfly_FR

+100
Some knows that ;)

sixpacker

Indeed, apart from boardroom shuffling I'm not sure we have seen anything new from Chen so far.
Maybe he has the carisma needed to foster market confidence, or perhaps it's that he's still enjoying his honeymoon period? Time will tell...

Thunderbuck

I actually sold my holdings a couple of days ago, so I'm gnashing my teeth at this $10 flirtation today.

I intend to get back in, but I also fully expect a pullback as investors take profits.

Posted from CB10 running on my awesome Z30

IJKBB10

How you liking the z30? What s your high lights of using it? Did you upgrade from a z10 or q10?

Pard

Stock is up today on Citron report.

Posted via CB10

wincyUt

I totally agree with you

Anthony Roberts5

Nice!!! Its climbing up pretty well to be honest...:). BB10 the best OS hands down....I've converted 10 of my friends who has iPhone and Android over to BB10 mainly the Z30 because its so awesome!!!!

freddysrevng3

What's up, Brother Anthony... you are "the man"... thanks for your help, yesterday, on Mega and "leaks" - could not "figure it out", but appreciated your effort...

Good Weekend...

CB from the Z30

Anthony Roberts5

Heyyy I remember you :). What's good? Which device do you have again?

freddysrevng3

I have the Z30 with 10.2.0

CB10 from the Z30

Jerale Hoard

I want to invest in BlackBerry. Is it a good thing to start now and shall I buy shares?

Posted via CB10

christoph77

Great read, as always Umi. Thanks for the insight!

C0038297E Quote of the Day (BBM Channel)

michaelrb88

Just checked the stocks. 9.05 a share. Maybe Chen has a good plan. I'm sure depending on blackberry to stay around. Wouldn't have anything else.

STL100-4, .1925 OS, .1926 radio

rickster2611

Mr U has spoken......

Posted via CB10

brewman_trueman

Bought around $45 or so, went upto $66 or so... set up an automated sell @ $80... they say not to put all your eggs in the same basket... but I love against the grain... so all I bought after selling my mutual funds were RIM.TO... and all my phones were Q(werty) devices...

Since my shares are valued @ 1/5th of the buying price, I probably should buy more now to make up, eh?

Come on folks, let's keep buying... both the devices and the stocks!

Posted via CB10

Pard

From Barron's

BlackBerry Up 5%: Citron Sees $15 Value, Shorts Are All Wrong

By Tiernan Ray

Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are up 45 cents, over 5%, at $9.01, after the stock got a thumbs up this afternoon from the most unlikely of places, notorious short sellers Citron Research, who argue today that short sellers are misguided in their negativism on the smartphone maker.

“As a short seller, nothing creates a better investment opportunity than a heavily shorted stock based on a flawed thesis,” write the Citron team.

Citron argues short-sellers are still fixated on the company’s defeat in the smartphone market at the hands of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG), but that they need to “get over it.”

What makes the situation more interesting is the incredible amount of unwarranted bearishness coming from Wall Street analysts. Virtually every major Wall Street firm currently has a Hold or Sell on the stock, based on the same substantially flawed analysis.

Instead, the firm argues CEO John Chen, installed in November, has significantly de-risked the balance sheet of the company, an improvement that is not reflected in media coverage of a failing handset maker:

The new strategy — eliminating device inventory risks and refocusing on enterprise software business — has already significantly de-risked Blackberry’s balance sheet. Street estimates of its cash position outlook in the future largely portray the company stabilizing its cash flow within the next few quarters. RBC, for example, sees Blackberry stabilizing its cash position in the 3rd quarter of fiscal 2015, which is three quarters from now. While investors are bombarded on a daily basis with media articles about the struggling handset maker as if the Company was going to fall apart any day, the reality is it has a healthy balance sheet, with ample liquidity to execute its turnaround strategy and make the necessary investments for growth.

The authors lambast various “misperception” examples, including an article by BusinessWeek‘s Joshua Brustein yesterday — “the journalist ridiculed Blackberry’s recent press release of selling 1,000 BB 10 devices and further emphasized the fact that at its peak, Blackberry sold 7,000 phones per hour — and they attack a report by Citigroup‘s Ehud Gelblum‘s December 10 initiationof coverage with a Sell rating, writing “Again, the analyst’s focus here is still on BB10 devices and has yet to manage to realize Blackberry today is an enterprise software play. Why? It’s because the Citi research analyst covers Communication Equipment rather than Enterprise Software.”

The authors write that all these parties are missing “The New BlackBerry,” a software company:

It is going to be an enterprise software company with focus on mobile device management solutions and other potential mobile enterprise software opportunities. The Blackberry today is a fundamentally different company from the old Blackberry that investors were familiar with just a short few months ago before John Chen stepped in.

After lauding BlackBerry’s “BES” device management software, its “BBM” group-messaging application, and its ”QNX“ embedded operating system, the authors argue for the value of the company’s patent holdings:

Analysts have pegged different value on Blackberry’s patent portfolio, ranging from $1 billion to $3 billion. The company was ranked 20th in number of US patent approval for 2013 with 1334 patents approved over the course of the year. Its market capitalization today is a small fraction of virtually every single one of the companies ranked in top 30.

In conclusion, the authors cite this as one of their rare long positions:

Our readers will know that Citron does not undertake a long position in any stock often. And when we do recommend a stock, it is with a reason. (For example, we tweeted about APOL below 20 (after having exposed its major regulatory vulnerability in 2009 when it was over 80), MOVE at 11 in May 2013, WUBA at 24 in October, ATHM below 30 in December. We shared our SOHU valuation analysis writeup (March and August 2012, when the stock was in the 40’s). These positions have stood the test of time respectably. It is Citron’s opinion that Blackberry shorts would be well served to update their research. (Many already have: short interest has fallen from over 32.2% in mid-November, to appx 20.7% as of 12/31/13.) It is Citron’s opinion that it is suicidal to bet against well-capitalized strong management in the enterprise mobile space. It’s just our honest opinion that once conservative valuations against Blackberry’s very viable and highly legitimate enterprise technology businesses are in place, this stock could easily double. The anticipated 2014 IPO’s of much less firmly-rooted competitors will only serve to bolster this thesis. Of course … as always … “Cautious investing to all” … long or short.

wincyUt

The Citron report makes logical sense.

Mr BBRY

^^^ This! The Citron report is the most logical analysis of BlackBerry I've heard of in quite a long time. This guy knows what he is taking about!

Posted via CB10

accuberryedwin

i am glad i never sold my shares.

jojo beaconsfield

You never loose if you don't sell,the saying goes.

freddysrevng3

That took "guts", Bro... you are to be "commended"..

jsocan

Same here, but was lucky the go-private plan didn't go through. That was a close call!

rickster2611

The BlackBerry design has to be more radical to make people sit up and take notice.

BB10 OS is shaping up nicely but the design is too conservative.

Mr Chen meet your new design team....Digital Homeboy and Ziro1.

These people are willing to put the mind and time into BlackBerry let see BlackBerry do the same and hire these people.

Let's show the World that BlackBerry is back and is not messing about.

Guerilla marketing campaigns.

BlackBerry...Get it done

Posted via CB10

jackwaldon

Everything is so impulsive with BlackBerry in the media, the stock can loose that $3 in a heartbeat.

All they need is a lawsuit or a network outage or another private bid (that creates headlines and stalls sales) or a story of a breakup and the stock will drop again.

This is just my opinion and I don't follow this closely. But if you went from staying away at $6 to buying at $9, you need to be ready for a few more bumps.

Also important is that (It's my understanding, I could be wrong) at $10, the Fairfax debt is turned into stock, and they are now "debt free" again. So, that's the news that I am more interested in.

Nharzhool

It's "lose", mate - not "loose". :)

jackwaldon

There is a great deal of talk about the "removal of risk" because of the Fairfax deal. But, that isn't true is it? They are still going to manufacture their own flagship phone. Maybe that means there is less risk, but it's still there.

Am I missing something? Comments?

jr4941

John Chen's vision is resonating with Wall St. Citron is obviously agreeing. With Citron mocking Joshua Brustein's for his article on how lame it was that BB was issuing a press release for 1000 devices.

Citron is basically saying 'it's not just the handset sales dumba$$; it's the EMM!' Puuuuuuuure margin baby!

Carjackd

Financial post thinks part of it is related to this. 1000 units isn't huge but baby steps http://business.financialpost.com/2014/01/17/blackberry-ltd-shares-frida... l

Posted via CB10

nicky devriese

bbm must be listed seperately for more firepower
bbry=most secure network in the world+best messaging system in the world,best EMM and best mobile operating system QNX in the world,only idiots don't buy stock,Heins did fatal errors but Chen will bring blackberry back!!!good luck to all stockholders

tatail

I am still -$200 behind.. Hopefully next week my investment will change to positive.. :)
It was a great day though.

meltbox360

Lucky... Should have bought way back at six but noooooo I had to wait until $12. Derp. No one to blame but myself I suppose haha. To the moon BBRY gooooo!

Posted via CB10

advil_yum

Curious as to what phone Umi is using these days? Still on the Galaxy, or back to BB, and if so, have you grabbed the 10.2.1 leak for it?

Chris Umiastowski

Galaxy is now my primary phone, BB Z10 still sits (regularly charged, use it for email and stuff at home) as my backup.  I prefer multitasking by a mile on BB10.  Way better.  But the apps available to me on GS4 (Android) are what have me effectively switched until BB10 improves.

The two big ones for me are:

1) Voxer (walkie talkie app) 

2) Audible (audio books)

Honorable mentions to lots of other apps that I use semi-often but can't get on BB10.  Considering how much BB is shifting its focus to enterprise software, I don't feel back moving away from their hardware for a while.  I've still used BB hardware for longer than *almost* everyone on this site (13 years)

Alex Keb

I say take your profits. Market is ripe for a correction. Earnings season is becoming quite a dose of reality to the media/analysts proving the economy is not what it was pumped up to be. Stocks are overextended and with high risk leveraged long positions being taken by fund managers, this is a recipe for disaster.

Next week is tech ER, if they also miss their estimates which I think they will looking at intel/ups lackluster performance, Feb might be a red month.

2013 Fed pump rally, 2014 starting with a Taper and bad ER season.

So take this in mind. I suggest to wait if you haven't bought yet and sell above 9$ and take profits.

Chris Umiastowski

Here's my alternative view:  Trying to time the market is a total waste of energy and costs you serious money over the long term (trading fees + bid / ask spreads that you lose forever). People who advocate market timing* fit into one of two categories:

1) Geniuses who are mostly right and make brilliant calls on market timing

2) Fools who haven't learned that market timing costs you money versus staying invested for the long term.

I don't know anyone who fits into the first category.

*I have no clue where the market is going in the short term

Spades1234

The better question is why didn't I throw a couple grand in!

Grrrr!

10

3_M4N

It's not too late! The tides are changing. There's been more and more positive press on BlackBerry recently and soon moods on Wallstreet will change as well. Take a look at that Citron report that's been floating around here. If that doesn't convince you to take the plunge, I don't know what will!

Posted while peeking and flowing on my incredible BBQ10! 

tmommy

Do it now! I was stewing on it a month ago and I'm glad I got in. I literally put in two grand, which I can afford to lose, and right now it's worth about three. That’s not going to cover my retirement, of course, but I'm looking at it as a long term hold (which still won't cover my retirement, I don't think). And, if I lose my nerve in the next ten minutes, I will have had some skin in the game for a while and maybe I can get a nice pair of boots out of it.

Posted via CB10

Nharzhool

Unfortunately I don't have the cash...it looks to be a sound investment.

longtermBB

The debt consortium have the right/ option to convert into stock. It is a weight over the market for 4 years but doesn't help you if you are short the company. Look at GM and EBS where the respective Government's owned some stock. The share price in the short term can still blast through that level. The outstanding short position in BlackBerry was crazy and the speculation was for bankruptcy as the value of the stock at one point was lower than the cash BlackBerry had in the bank. On top of that the "4 billion" loss will trigger a large tax refund yet again. Probably enough to see the company cash flow neutral through it transition. Its probably fair value here and the bears have taken a real beating on fiscal 15. The problem for the shorts is there is really nothing to cling on to and pretty much every market/ street analyst has a sell rating. I went flat today as it hit the Fairfax offer value but in reality if any good news or even no news comes out there is another leg up.

Posted via CB10

smarcuzzi

Yes true this is why the stock is raising. It also has to do with momentum of the company. BlackBerry has this past two weeks been able to sell back to a corporate base as they started out. That means the brand is still recognized as a secure mobile devise for very private information in the hands of employees.

Since Chen has hit the drivers seat things have not just coasted. He has been able to make small yet strategic shifts.

When that happens investors, like myself tend to get sold on the company again and have some faith on the direction.

The book value should soon raise, that will be an indication of the stocks daily trade price average.
Conclusion: still a high level of volatility, with the potential for great success.

Real Qwerty!

BerryRipe

My beliefs are by Mr. John Chen aka The Zen Warrior making the statement about predominately utilizing qwerty phone is what's going to turn this company back around.

Sure a flagship full touch phone may be needed but the qwerty is a BlackBerry no if's and's or but's about it.

Keep The Faith  BlackBerry Q10 

jojo beaconsfield

I think a lot of other so called analysts, are going to look at citron's paper and see the light at the end of the tunnel and come around.This guy makes sense.

Mr BBRY

You are correct, Jojo! Great comments to this article. You sir, seem to get it. You should join Superfly's BBRY support thread. There is no other forum like it!

Posted via CB10

jojo beaconsfield

Thank's for the heads up,I like Superfly,*_*

vizZir

BlackBerry stock is ultra speculative. At this time the upside in the stock is purely speculative.

Posted via CB10

kronykapitalist

Watsa is a self-made billionaire, I trust his judgement when it come to investing vs analysts that depend on a salary.

3_M4N

Chris, I'd like to see you do a write up about the Citron report. Do you think they're right on the money or overly optimistic?

http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f329/interesting-read-citron-research-...

It seems to be getting tons of press coverage from other sites (Reuters, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo News) and is allegedly the main catalyst for today's gains. I guess I'd just be interested in seeing you picking it apart and sharing your thoughts on it.

Posted while peeking and flowing on my incredible BBQ10! 

jojo beaconsfield

He can't pick it apart, as the report is picking apart all the shorts, and is doing a great job in doing so,one of the best analysts I have ever seen,LOL,read the full paper and WOW this guy makes sense.and on top of that, his firm shorted BB big time and has changed their rating because of the new direction BB is taking. John Chen ,Chentastic,I saw that somewhere,thanks,another short washing just around the corner

3_M4N

You da man Chris!

http://m.crackberry.com/what-i-think-about-very-bullish-citron-report-bl...

Posted while peeking and flowing on my incredible BBQ10! 

Superfly_FR

Have a look at his mockup ... and see how BES10 client is appreciated (and downloaded) over google app store ... http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f329/i-support-bbry-i-buy-shares-66649... that's a big why too, IMHO

christoph77

True, true and true :). Nice job umi

C0038297E Quote of the Day (BBM Channel)

ppsingh

Come on BlackBerry!! I am always with you..

C0014768C (Amazingly funny pics channel)

milo53

Interesting, at BB peak, 7000 handsets were sold per hour!
Now everyone is celebrating a sale in Germany of 1000 sets, is this really news worthy?

dusdal

*whoosh*

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hassan boutabssil

Chen has a very positive approch. Which is very important to keep everyone confident it is reflected today by the stock market. With Chen we feel the new era is starting. Wish BlackBerry and Chen all the best

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nabollocks

Get ready for the profiteering...

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ndogg1

I hope BlackBerry makes some money soon. I want my stocks to make money! I have always been a BlackBerry supporter and always will be!

From the mind of a mAnIaC

jcraig

I think the time of the Shorts is coming to a close. I hope ...

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bennyph

Let's see if there will be other analysts coming out to reiterate their "Sell" rating with bs reasons on $BBRY to counterattack the report this afternoon from Citron! And see if it can hold the line at $9!

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texn884

I bought 1 Q10 that I am sure had a BIG IMPACT on the stock rise!

nerdydaddyo

What Chris is saying in layman's terms is that BlackBerry stock is too much of a gamble and not worth the risk from a strictly investor 's point of view. There was no mention of loyal fans being advised to run out and buy some stock in BlackBerry solely to show them your support because it would help them out and it is the right thing to do. This is Kickstarter, BlackBerry edition. Invest in something you believe in, even it is successful or not. Don't expect a big payoff other than knowing you contributed. That would have been a much better article.

I used my Z10 to create this CrackBerry madness!

LordDraco

Like i predicted before, if BlackBerry want to improved its stocks price, they should let US Investor to invest majority stake. John Chen election as CEO is a gesture that Blackberry is getting closer to silicon Valley, thus BBRY Stock price increase.

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RP Singh

The article said Chen is going to refocus on Keyboard devices. YES! Just waiting for a slider now... or if I'm REALLY Lucky, a flip!!

Sent from my iPuh-lease-as-IF

rave1090

Yes I've noticed it too #BlackberryFTW

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m1kr0

Now that this report is out and carried by other big news and financial sites, the stock is responding in the right direction. I think there are a number of financial analysts that banked on BB downfall ready to slit their wrists if they haven't done so already. Perhaps they should.

STL 100-1 OS 10.2.1.1925

br14

BlackBerry is slowly cutting costs but it will take another couple of quarters at least for those cuts to work their way through.

Anyone who thinks the company can survive as a software/services only company is well off beam.

BES is only valuable because it supports BlackBerry 10 and BlackBerry 7 devices. As a standalone MDM it's not much competition to the others - regardless of how many customers they may have. Gartner doesn't rate it so most unthinking business managers won't be committing their budgets just yet.

With BB devices BES blows the rest away.

The fact is that the latest BlackBerry devices - in particular the Z30 - are very good. Especially with 10.2.1. The OS is light years better than iOS, and far better than Android. And with all those Android apps there's no reason to care about a lack of apps.

However, I'd love to know why 10.2.1 has not yet been released. It is several months since the initial development releases, but for whatever reason BlackBerry still hasn't moved on the OS.

Something doesn't smell right.

jsocan

Last year's Gartner MDM report didn't include BES because BES did not support multiple devices yet. This year's report should see BES included in the magic quartrant as the leading vendor.

Atmarix

Well since they're not planning to focus on devices, at least do something about the z30!!!!

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Jonard Bais

Go BlackBerry. BlackBerry loyalist here.:)

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toieboie

9.08 now :D

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canuckbear

Short sellers are exhausted and probably on the beach now enjoying their blood money.

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DaSchwantz

The 'real' reason the stock price went up, in terms of mechanics, is short covering. The short trade was also behind the mechanics of the stock price going down. They have been incredibly powerful and disciplined in this particular case - more so than I've witnessed on any single stock listing before. If you want to know the back story of animosity behind some of the Wall Street hedge funds and Prem Watsa, you've got to dig deeply into the history, including Prem's position (against scam mortgage backed securities) leading up to the global financial collapse, the targeting of Fairfax itself as a stock listing with a campaign of lies and innuendo (about its solvency) around the same time, the subsequent Fairfax lawsuit (against the hedge funds), etc.

Prem also needed the board to get rid of Jim, and then Mike, and then Thorsten and the rest of the executive. After Jim was removed he needed to gently push Mike aside (because they're friends) and take over control of the company, which he did using a (sham, IMO) bid process that ended up turning into the convertible deal at $10. As part of this deal, Prem insisted on heading the hiring and compensation committee. The rest is history following Chen's appointment along with a whole new executive body. The reason the stock price is up is because the shorts now know that Prem is going to successfully turn this thing around whole, and there will be no fire sale. The rest of the day to day details are peripheral.

24C28DD7

Bikram Kochar

ye hey!!!!!! party time

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buckwylder

It's like sports commentary. "They either win or lose depending on success or failure." (oh really? I didn't know there were these two opposing sides called win/loss... intriguing. so what they're saying is, it could go either way then?) why was that in brackets?

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PatrickMJS

Chris, sometimes it takes me a while to think through your articles. Always well written and clear.

I am puzzled by Chen's embrace of the "vacate-the-consumer-market" strategy. With the app hap effectively gone, battery issues solved, OS issues fixed... amazing build quality... I think they need to just get out in front of the consumer with basically a brand new device. I think now is the time to push it hard. Instead it's like they're slouching away. IMHO They are totally missing the boat here. Tide in the affairs of men... and all that. RIGHT NOW. I believe with the right marketing & pricing, the Z30/Q10 product lineup is a very compelling proposition FOR THE CONSUMER.

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PatrickMJS

*gap, not hap LOL

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Herbie52

It could also be the fact that Fairfax is dumping money into this cash cow. I'm sure they see the growth potential of this stock. Blackberry stock has been going up and Apple is trending down. Investors should realize that Apple can no longer sustain their insane profit margins. Not they are resorting to dumbing down the technology (can't stream 1080p). No sim card port, no removable battery. IPhone sucks people! Save money and get a Z10 with better specs. Atleast the Z10 gets better with age. The iPhone gets aborted before the second trimester.

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Brian Persaud

I sold my stock at 10 this week. Waiting for it to drop again so I can buy again and make some money.

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bigsuededog77

Awesome BlackBerry is up 50%

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Oilers24

The reason IBM got out of PCs was they had become commodities, meaning very little profit margins. Microsoft and Samsung have other lines of business to offset the small margins they make on the handsets and Apple is able to still sell theirs at a premium.

BlackBerry does not have economies of scale to effectively sell lowend consumer phones, hence their arrangement with you Foxconn. The stock is rallying because BlackBerry has gone back to their roots as a company focused on serving businesses.

Going forward I expect that the company will leave the commoditized phones to android and Foxconn. I see them building premium handsets for the enterprise. Which will once again set apart the phone and the people using them.

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mwt715

Don't ever count out the original. Keep at it boys. You'll be king again soon.

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freedomx20a

DAM i want it to hit 6 again so I can buy more

adonesc

BlackBerry is up because all the "anal lysts" are hibernating !

Cartman says: Screw you guys I'm going home!