What will BlackBerry Q4 earnings bring?

By Chris Umiastowski on 25 Mar 2014 08:05 am EDT
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This Friday morning BlackBerry will report the final quarter of the company’s fiscal 2014 results. As usual, I’ll remind you that yes, it is really the end of their 2014 year since they have a February year end to their fiscal year.

To set the stage for the announcement, let’s take a quick look back at what happened last quarter. The company reported only $1.2 billion in revenue for Q3, which was down from $1.6 billion in Q2. Revenues have been falling sharply, and everyone is waiting to see where they level out. In terms of devices, the company recognized revenue on 1.9 million units, which was also a sharp reduction from the 3.7 million units in Q2. Hardware sales made up 40% of sales last quarter. 53% of sales came from service revenue, which is still mostly tied to legacy BBOS carrier fees. This is an area that is in decline as the business model shifts to BlackBerry 10.

Also, during Q3, BlackBerry announced a partnership with Foxconn for future hardware, and they restructured their reporting divisions into the following segments: Enterprise services; Messaging; QNX Embedded Business; and Devices. The BBM rollout has gone quite well with BlackBerry reaching 40 million newly registered users in the first two months.

So the big question is … what has happened to the financials since then? In terms of guidance, management didn’t say much in the outlook section of last quarter’s report. For Q4 they said “the Company anticipates maintaining its strong cash position and further reducing operating expenses as it continues to implement its previously-announced cost reduction program."

It’s pretty hard to maintain your cash position unless you stabilize revenue or offset a revenue decline with healthy cuts to operating expenses. Last quarter the adjusted gross margin was about $400 million, while cash operating expenses were $865 million. The difference between those numbers is (roughly speaking) the loss on the income statement. Cash burn is lower than the difference because they’re not spending as much buying capital assets these days, while they are writing down the value of past assets as per accounting rules. But going forward if they want to maintain their cash balance they need to either keep squeezing the working capital balance (pushing out payables, collecting receivables, selling down inventory), or they must improve gross margin, or they must cut expenses. The latter two are obviously the most important for the long term health of BlackBerry.

What do analysts expect? The consensus estimate is revenue of $1.11 billion, or about an 8% decline quarter over quarter. Earnings per share are expected to be a loss of $0.57, which means are expected to be a loss of about $295 million in the income statement. If they hit these numbers I think they’ll accomplish their stated goals. But I’m much more interested in knowing how they are doing with respect to building up BES revenue, launching eBBM, and of course growing (and potentially monetizing, in time) their BBM user base. And naturally I’m interested in knowing how the hardware business is poised to do once the Foxconn products hit the market.

For the May quarter, analysts seem to expect long-awaited revenue growth, so it will be interesting to see what guidance is for the quarter. We’re not talking about big growth expectations, but I do notice the consensus revenue forecast is $1.15 billion, up from $1.11 billion in Q4. If that ends up being anywhere close to accurate it would be a really nice sign of potential business stability.

What are you hoping to see or hear on Friday?

130 comments

emmuniz1

First!!

#BB10Believe #BlackBerryNation #BB10Army #BB10Freak #KeepMoving #TeamBlackberry #BBMCrossPlatform #BBM4All #KeepMoving

I'm MongezaurioBerry

masterful

Nice. But what do you think of the eer

Posted via CB10

freddysrevng3

The Z30 just won the Techno Buffalo "March Mobile Madness" tournament. Beating out iPhone and Androids.....TB is not a Blackberry Fanboy rag...

Nobody here knows about this victory... no marketing + no advertising + no messaging means people have no idea about BB10 and they think "BlackBerry is Going Out of Business "...

Why would you buy one of their phones to be ridiculed.

Heck, even Blaize is doing commercials, today, for the new HTC One on CB.....how is BlackBerry to win?

Going to be an awful quarter report - better get Z3 out en masse to emerging markets and spend a few marketing dollars....

CB10 from the Z30

freddysrevng3

And Chen better keep making "personal visits" to clients - he's about the only thing we have going for us right now....

Lastly, get the Q20 out this quarter - that could sell with track pad and larger screen....no Friggin exclusives!!!

Z30 is being wasted only sold at Verizon...

CB10 from the Z30

BB Super Junior

I see the Q20 coming out Q3 Fiscal 2015. Perhaps Early Q3. Here's hoping for Q20 this Q2 although it would be great to have a new device drop in time for graduation in October :))))

BionicKris

I'm with ya on both posts. Well said.

Posted via CB10

Prem WatsApp

Go Z30!

This is today's real "FIRST" post!

"No Q10?" -> "Buy from Chen... "

freddysrevng3

"Give em Hell", Mr. Watsa

Killjoyhere

The rumors of their demise are greatly exaggerated.

Posted via CB10

Oneshortsleeve

Are you serious?! Honestly, how much validity are you giving this? Someone holds a "bracket" for smartphones, the link gets pasted to CB, and the fanboys flock to the site to give their single device SOME sort of small victory. All the while, no one else knows, or even cares, about this. And if they did, they are busy spreading their votes out for the 8 devices running Android.

This is no type of indicator of how good these devices are. This are homers voting for the only device they know...from ALL platforms.

dildothegreat

I see bloooooddddd!!! death is near!!

Swap my Q10 to ur Z30 I'll add cash, just PM! TQ! :)

drmike

He doesn't think therefore he's a first loser period.

Posted via CB10

buylocal_getaBB

It's interesting that people react so strongly to first comments and end up wasting many times more comments reacting to it instead of just going about their business of posting something relevant after the first comment. It would seem this would be the best way of minimizing the waste, instead of a bunch of equally meaningless insults.

Buy a bb, get a droid for free

Prem WatsApp

+10.3 for some sense here...

"No Q10?" -> "Buy from Chen... "

kdklein

Please contribute something and stop wasting our time with this stupid "first" stuff.

I'm extremely curious and hopeful for BlackBerry's future. It would really be great if we got an earnings bump and the stock shot up a bit more.

aha

His hush tags said the same thing as what you said, and he had fun by posting "first" and getting to people's nerves.

Posted via CB10 with Z30 on 10.2.1.2141

masterful

I think it will be positive and it will spikes very high

Posted via CB10

IJKBB10

I really hope your right. It would bring some confidence that BlackBerry just might be able to become profitable again. That will cause more existing customers to upgrade to BES and hopefully gain new customers to move to the BES solution for the BYOD trend!

As Chris mentioned the;
"This is an area that is in decline as the business model shifts to BlackBerry 10". Also the fact companies are shifting to stupid iphones and Androids.

Posted via CB10 with my  Z30

z10 rocks

A short squeeze. Lol, I'm hoping for, long bb

Posted via CB10

crunch27

Good for you.

What will the 4th Q bring us? Probably more bad news. They have got good products, now get off your @sses and promote your phones. Advertise! We, Q10, Z10, Z30 et all, can't do all the work for you by "word of mouth".

Himanshu Mehta

Advertising is gonna help big, catch the youth and flourish as apple & Samsung did.

Himanshu's Z10

scalemaster34

Advertising cost a LOT of money.... they can't really afford to do the mass advertising the Apple, Microsoft, Google and Samsung are able to do these days.

First you need a product that the "youth" want... sorry but BB10 and it's limited app selection and contrived ways of getting apps is not all the appealing to non tech people.

Drmoe

Losses but progress!

Posted using the best phone ever, the Z30!

birdman_38

Chen is very good at pitching it that way.

sandman10

Bloodbath. Optimism is overrated.

JAM25

Crap, more crap.

Time to stand up and advertise. Advertise everywhere.

And I mean everywhere.

Schools, bathroom, restaurants, airports, buses, downtown areas, facebook, twitter, myspace goddamit(lol), television, newspapers, magazines, phones.

I have an.associates degree im law enforcement and i.feel I can do helluva better job than them.

Posted via CB10

Prem WatsApp

Let's enforce it, then!

"No Q10?" -> "Buy from Chen... "

BigR3dBri

Yes. Advertising. I have not seen any in the main stream. Yet I see apple, android all the time.

Posted via CB10

ATI nsider

Definitely BlackBerry needs to properly beef up its Marketing and Advertising. But they 1st need to ensure company stability. The one area that BlackBerry will IMO market properly is the special new device that John Chen talked about briefly in an interview, that suppose to attract new customers.

milo53

Maybe Chen can paint an ad on the Corporate Jet, by the way is larger than Apples Jet, this would help sell.

Puz_zled

You think Apple only has 1 corporate jet?

This post Powered by BlackBerry

JAM25

Of BlackBerry would advertise, I believe thats the key to there rise.

Posted via CB10

K_Thomas

Yeah, but they have the careful. If they go advertising like crazy, and the product is not ripe for picking (which I don't think it is yet) they will burn through the cash, and that's when we would all be able to get our black suits for the funeral.

The UI, camera, design, and app issues certainly need to be addressed first, at the least. Yeah, I know.... APK. No, it needs to be easy, a complete idiot needs to be able to get where he/she wants to go on the phone. That's in addition to all of the greatness of the os.

Posted via CB10

Ayla Pnx

The new leaked OS... proper indication that they mean business. All I need to hear from them is a new upcoming flagship device. Any hope?

Zed 10 user in SA

prescott19

Not good obviously. Should if went private so they can get away from earnings reports every quarter.

Posted via CB10

Kalendel

I disagree. If BlackBerry went silent (private) after their crash, nobody would know what was going on. By staying public, the business users that BlackBerry is trying to woo are fully in the loop. Rather than waiting a year to come out with the information that they are profitable again, business users can watch the turnaround happen in 3 month increments. Most people would switch if they had to wait the full year, but it's much easier to hold out for quarterly results.
The average consumer isn't going to recognize the importance of them reporting losses, but that's not BlackBerry's target market right now. Their market is the business users who understand that slowing the flow of losses is the most important thing right now and we are watching BlackBerry do that right now. Staying public and doing it right, such as they are, gives people much more to hold on to and reason to not fully dump their BlackBerry phones.

Posted via CB10

jpvj

I think we will se a decline in HW sales. A big one. Many resellers have stopped stocking BB devices and the majority are back stabbing BlackBerry by telling "they will go out of business" and promote iPhone/Samsung instead.

IMHO BB is heading for a just-in-time production with minimal stock and Foxcomm to deliver in small chunks when needed and with potential to ramp up in a hurry if nescessary.

If BB10 ever has to become a bigger player, we need to see support from OEM manufactors and carriers. Until then it is unfortunately downhill.

Operational costs have been lowered but the process is not finished yet, so I will still expect an operational loss. $300M is a good guess.

Btw: Mr. Chen has been quote to say something like "We all know what happen with the US carriers, ...".
Anybody has an idea of what he ment by that?

Prem WatsApp

These backstabbing resellers are silly. No thought about the future of the market.

Now they will sell iPhones and Samsung, until iPhones and Samsung is all they CAN sell!

"No Q10?" -> "Buy from Chen... "

YTDW2000

I would expect to see signs that the stabilization plan is working, though we realistically can't expect the picture to look that great at this point in time.

Sent from my BlackBerry Z30

wincyUt

Well, we shall all know in 3 days the true state of things in BBRY land.

tuxedo_cat

Any insight into marketing to their enterprise and government clients would be great to hear.

Posted via CB10

John Kastanes

If revenues stabilize, BBM users increase appreciably, the market will wait and how Foxconn rollout goes.

Z10

mavsguy842

I'm mainly interested in the breakdown by reporting division, specifically how much of a loss the Messaging division takes (how expensive is their cross-platform BBM/Channels push?),how poorly the Devices division is doing and BlackBerry's comments about the expected improvement in Devices from the FoxConn deal.

Himanshu Mehta

Reduction on inventory of z10 may reduce some losses, steady selling of q10 and z30 also add some fizz.

Am optimistic on lesser losses then forecasted.

Buy blackberry shares this price never would be back $8-10 levels most lucrative.

Next q will reflect all those estate realization, staff reduction and more steady sales of Z3 aka jakarta.

Buy BBRY and enjoy the boom now on or never :)

Himanshu's Z10

rickster2611

Only time will tell....

My biggest concern is the redundancies.

BlackBerry have shed a lot of experience in BB10 while Mr Chen and his team try to stabilise BlackBerry.

If they succeed where will the aftercare experience come from? And for that matter your sales reps?

You need people who know BlackBerry.

Not just for Enterprise customers only, you need it for all customers .

When BlackBerry starts to correct itself and starts to show some profit. It will need to have the aftercare department taking care of the customers needs.

Retraining not redundancies.

BlackBerry...Get it done.

Posted via CB10

NamelessStar

I may be a bit optimistic bit since passing over a Christmas timeline I think they should hit the mark or just pass over it. I know a lot of people looking to get BES10 implemented due to security issues and segregation of information. Will be more interesting to see how many new big names jumped onto BES10.

Posted via CB10 on my blazing fast Z30 on 10.2.1.2141

canadian nick

Thanks Chris love your posts. I know it's too early to be good news but I hope it's not bad.

I still find it crazy that you can have such an amazing product and be worth so little when there are companies like whatsapp sell for 19 billion.

Posted via CB10

dpcanada

Don't know how many people saw the national last night...here the link talking about BlackBerry ...

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV Shows/The National/ID/2444348687/

Dpcanada

Shadberry Bold

There needs to be an official 3rd party Google Play store that works flawlessly with BB10 & all apps! Google services included. Needs to come pre-installed on BB10 devices or maybe have BlackBerry World tap into the Google Play store as a shell (Google Services included).

Then there is no "App Gap." Next advertise with a celebrity spokes person. Obvious choices would be Canadian natives, Drake or Justin Bieber!

Problems solved!!!!!!!!

Posted via CB10

dpcanada

The link did not get highlighted in full...you will have to copy and paste...sorry.

Dpcanada

3_M4N

I'm hoping they exceed the street's expectations and have one or two big announcements. I hope they announce that their CORE program is complete and that they are moving forward with directives to grow sales. And I'm really hoping for some great BES10 / BES12 numbers to show that they are replacing the declining BIS revenues.
Minor announcements I would also like to hear would be some more big name companies that have started using BES and perhaps an official announcement confirming that Ford will in fact be upgrading their infotainment system to QNX. One can dream right? \=D/

Posted while peeking and flowing on my incredible BBQ10! 

Midgeone25

BlackBerry 10 and beyond .there is so much BlackBerry has left to offer they MUST survive and get the word out that they now have handsets that are if not better at least the equal to iPhones etc. And are worthy alternatives to droid, ios and windows. We berry bods know the negative press and mindsets are just bullshit that has arisen from bad journalism and perpetuated by competitor's. I believe in BlackBerry and if we lose BlackBerry there are no winner's, the world will definitely be a worse place without them. Big respect for Mr Chen. And now let's watch a talented business man work!

Tapping and flicking on my Zed 10

koboss

I hope they can show some positive reflection on the last quarter, personally I have seen a lot off BlackBerry users switch to iphone or android because they are fed up with the battery pulls and the freezing ups of the old curves and BBOS in general I think that the curve not that you can compare it to anything new out there, but it pissed a lot of users off in the end and they werebt willing to give BlackBerry a try for fear of Batt pulls, freezing, and most of all no trendy apps... just my take...

Posted via CB10

Prem WatsApp

Right, that's why they need to know about BB10. Battery pull? Once every few months for me.

"No Q10?" -> "Buy from Chen... "

Jerale

Well I'm looking for new announcements. Instead of the Z3 or Q20 are there any more new devices in the pipeline? New tablet? New media device (yes I know it was scraped but it could be revived)? New partnerships? How about the Q20? Do you have a Q20 replica ready to showcase? What are you doing about the Z10 inventory? Will there be any advertising this year? How are you going to handle all the bias carriers? Are you reviving the PlayBook?

These are just few of the things I want to know. I'm really hoping BlackBerry spikes this Friday.

Powered by my BlackBerry (Z10). Join my #BBM Channels C001227CF, C00476C37, C003829C9, C002454C9,C002190AC, C00120CE3

bmorgan67

Here in Canada I have seen lots of small to mid size business jumping onto BlackBerry 10 with Q5's and Z10's. Intact Insurance recently switched all of their employees to BlackBerry 10. I know of a few mid size law firms that have also made the switch. I have seen more BlackBerry 10 phones out in the wild too.

With Chen's letter and the fear of Blackberries complete failure subsiding there has been some growing buzz. I think it may show last quarter but more likely in the next quarter. Go BlackBerry go.

Posted via CB10

lowezz

Guidance! Is all that matters

Posted via CB10

ANTIABE

Advertising! A lot!!!! Make BlackBerry a commercial plaque! Make a pandemia and everyone will knows the real power of BlackBerry!

Posted via CB10

EchoTango

As always, Chris paints a realistic picture. I think the key to the future for BBerry will be the BES production installs and the BBM subsciber count. This will set up the future if they are positive, if they are declining...well warm up the fat lady........ I'm not sure how many quarters of restructuring they can survive.

Curiously, there's been no BBM subsciber numbers published since the 40 million in 60 days press release. I'm wondering if the number stalled or went to a steady growth number or what ?

alan510

This quarter and the last one suffer from all that news about selling the company to Fairfax and a feeling that the company was going under. Who really wants to buy a phone from a company that is headed to seeming bankruptcy? And the company has no new phones launched in the quarter. That, along with massive advertising from other sources at Christmas, likely means tough finances on Friday. HOWEVER, there has been more good news than bad news about Blackberry's direction in the last couple of months so perhaps the bad taste about "strategic alternatives" is lessening which might slow the losses and turns things around for the next quarter. Let's hope so.

Posted via CB10

Koepman

Hm... I don't see how it will be a good day for BlackBerry ('s stock)

+ real estate
- sales of BB10 devices
- inventory still huge
- not much / or not enough BES10 clients

Since 2010 

lc474

It's going to be ugly, and I would not be surprised if they announced even more layoffs soon.
The reality is the phones are not selling, bes is not being adopted nearly fast enough, bbm subscribers have flattened, and cash burn was high, they will sugarcoat it by saying they expect x amount of dollars to add to cash pile with from their real estate sales.
Revenues will barely crack 1 billion, losses of 600 million..

Posted via CB10

milo53

IC474, feel your on the money with that one!

mehofmann

The biggest problem is the carriers. They have zero interest in selling BlackBerry devices, whether for enterprise or general consumer use.

For BlackBerry to do well the company must improve carrier support or go direct sales with unlocked phones at a steep discount. This I see is the only way for BlackBerry to start to improve sales and eventually market share.

The OS is great in general, yet still needs some work in functionality. Regular updates are key. The general consumer and/or business client cannot wait months for updates. That breaks confidence that the product is supported.

Advertising is also essential and must be witty, concise, cool and hip. Must have a hook, security is essential and must be exemplified, along with functionality.

Posted via CB10

Publisher1963

+1 (sadly)

Posted via CB10 on my Z10.2.0

birdman_38

It's not that carriers have "zero interest" in selling BlackBerry. They're more interested in selling what moves, namely Android and iPhone.

Wouldn't you want to sell products that are in demand?

Dhepaa

I hope blackberry can get more than10% market share in q4:)

Posted via CB10

benson0

That they are on the right track and keeping BBM growth! With the new Foxconn phone coming next month it should be a better Q1 in a few months!

Posted via CB10

adamlundrigan

Being a $BBRY investor with a long-term view, the only thing I care about at this stage is significant progress towards stopping the cash bleed. The $1B in debentures and early tax refund masked a massive cash burn from continuing operations in Q3, and to me that situation is unsustainable (eventually they'll run out of stuff to sell or advance for cash)

That said, I think analysts are being overzealous on their revenue predictions. BlackBerry didn't offer any guidance on device revenue for Q4, but analysts seem to think it'll be around 1.8m, slightly less than Q3's 1.9m. Assuming the same gross margin, that should put device revenue around $450m. They did guide service revenues to a similar decline as in Q3 (-35%), so that puts Q4 service revenue around $410m (65% of 632m). So overall revenue should come in around $900m, 18% below analyst expectations and 25% below Q3.

That potential revenue miss, and the EPS miss if cost-cutting is slower than expected, could give bears something to run with. That will present a nice buying opportunity if you believe BlackBerry will turn around it's fortunes.

bbry4life

I think your estimate is accurate. They need to stop the bleeding. Revenue will continue to decline until their sales force have new products and services to push.

BBRY's primary object continues to be cutting cost.

I think their cash position will be up though, but only due to the additional $250M injection from Fairfax and all the property they off-loaded in Waterloo and Texas.

quizm

Good article. Most of us do not have much information to go by. I think markets will be forgiving if results are not much worse than feared. But it seems sales are not strong, and with bbos income going down the fundamentals are not bright. I like the focus on enterprise but I do not think that this market is large enough alone? True margins can be higher in this market, but firms want a very basic machine for communication not one like my z30. I still think bb10 is an attractive option for many for personal use and marketing needs a very strong push. BlackBerry is a great product. It needs to announce greater links to android soon. If it can then escape the death notices, consumer confidence will come round...this is the biggest problem in my view.

Posted via CB10

joshua_sx1

Not to start a war, but do they have "earnings"?

Posted via CB10

Superfly_FR

Well, what I expect is of course close to or slightly above expectations, because it'll be a strong signal of efficiency. We've been burned already too hard with irrational expectations.

Now, above all, what I'd request for is: short term (Q to Q) guidance with a check-list of actions (product & services launch, for instance) we can tick and appreciate each Quarter.
Most probably out of the scope of E.R though ... Yet, one (pragmatic entrepreneur) can dream ;-)

Thanks Chris for this, BTW : what is your source for the consensus figures ?

Chris Umiastowski

I usually head to Yahoo Finance and look at analyst estimates there.  It's been reliable for years, as Yahoo has always used reputable sources.  Right now they use Thompson Financial for analyst estimates.  Fundamental data comes from Capital IQ ... it's all disclosed at the bottom of this page:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BBRY+Analyst+Estimates

Superfly_FR

Thank you Chris, You'll be pretty busy in the next few hours I guess ;)

ATI nsider

This is what I see.
- BBM Adoption has grown beyond 120M active users.
- BES10 gaining at least 10+ Thousand more Enterprise businesses for a 40,000+ BES10 total download/adoption. Naming key major enterprise players that went with BB10.
- 3.4M BB10 devices sold.
- $3.1B cash in the bank
- $500M tax credit from Canadian Government.

Andy321

That would be pretty fantastic. All of the surprises have been to the downside lately. Not looking forward to what my stocks app will be telling me Friday a.m.

Posted via CB10

iskaheen

You could be close to right with the BBM numbers. I read a report somewhere (I can't remember where) that the introduction of BBM for earlier editions of Android was a huge deal in certain developing nations and of the 1B Android phones sold over 20% (maybe more) are old Android devices. These Android phones are dirt cheap (but they can't do much) and BBM is actually used as a business tool for the most basic of businesses (not as a social media thing on these devices). So for example, a fisherman would negotiate delivery of fish to a fish monger at a market someplace real-time over BBM, etc., etc. All they care about is making deals fast and cheap. So BBM adoption in these countries could be much bigger than we think.

jojo beaconsfield

All I can say is Prem Watsa has balls of steel.Be patient ,Chen will pull an Ace out of his sleeve and watch the stock rise to $11us.We heard about the possible Ford deal ,that could be the Ace of diamonds just waiting to shine this Friday.

Barracuda7772

As far as marketing I do not believe blackberry should market the fact that you can install apk files until these said apks are available in black berry world.

Most users either don't want to or don't know how to install amazon app store.

Posted via CB10

habicht

I don't see great numbers this time. And for advertising - they first need something they can advertise.

BBM would be possible, but first I want to see BBM video and BBM for Windows phone. Then they can start advertising.

They need a great device like the 1080p device or/and the windermere. Then start advertising like hell... with q10/z30 and their adoption they would just burn cash.

treaker

A small loss
I don't expect a profit until end of next year and it will be a small one at that.

Z10 on Telus

bansheeboyz

This is a dying brand, the only hope for the company is to re invent it's brand, stop trying to play catch up and competing with apple and android...Reality check, do you personally know 10 people with a blackberry, better yet 5...

Posted via CB10

sebstarr

Yes. Easily. But I live in toronto.

From my new z30

BBZ10wannabe

Mr. Chen has a way of putting lipstick on a pig. Hopefully with almost a month into Q1, Mr. Chen can show some glimmer of hope for a positive path forward. Given that this is year-end for BBRY extra attention will be given to write-downs and write-offs. I expect additional restructuring expenses in reducing manufacturing capability, losses on sale of assets, patents write-downs and goodwill write-downs (if any was left) in general. This is probably their best chance to get all bad news out of the way with a bit of a free pass before turning things around and they don't want slow positive momentum after this quarter.

Anthony Roberts5

The Z3 is going to be blackberry's big chance to start making a comeback a low end cheap blackberry to get the buzz of BlackBerry 10 going emerging markets have billions and billions of people and can be huge especially with more and more software updates....once the user base then we will start seeing the big name apps come along

Posted via CB10

psskid

BlackBerry turn around will be slow while the tweak the UI and ecosystem. Many have said marketing is their largest issues now. People don't know what they have. This is partially true, their biggest issue is perception of an out if date company.

I am in the service business and have seen many people go to apple and Samsung from BlackBerry over the last few months. Their reasons, BlackBerry is going out of business and they won't support or have smartphones by the end of the year.

I know that Mr Chen and BlackBerry have tweeted and sent out statements that they are here to stay but the problem is that the general public does not read this. They follow the advice of the mall sellers and hear negative news via media channels.

Outside of investing in UI and infrastructure upgrades to BlackBerry devices and services, BlackBerry needs to invest heavily in a public relations campaign that is not just Facebook and Twitter but in minor league ball parks, ice rinks, and malls. Places where the general public spend much of their time.

Get the negative news out to the general public.......

Posted via CB10

bradpromac

I think Chen has already made some positive changes and will continue to do so.

I suspect that not much will change this quarter, but we should see things as more stable in the next quarter.

Let's see what Chen can do for the marketing side of BlackBerry as we know he is making big changes in people handling the different departments. I for one am very optimistic.

AmaZ30ed

Alex Keb

It's going to be bad. There is absolutely no growth, subs keep declining, BBM growth has slowed, poor quality control like Q10 double typing leading to more repairs and returns which translate to added cost and I didn't see any big enterprise purchases for new 10. The only positive sign some cash from sale of assets.

The irony is that legacy BlackBerry still bringing home the bacon and BlackBerry 10 transition leading to no income for the foreseeable future.

No bets on BlackBerry until we see how well Z3 sales are.

New BlackBerry motto is over price and under deliver.

Posted via CB10

Naija_berryfan

Right now what I feel is that BlackBerry's market perception is riding at a minimum on the trust that John Chen is at the helm. But for how long will they ride this wave of promise he is outlining, the company needs to start making concrete inroads into the developing market by offering products and services that are easily accessible to this market. Low end devices, BES 10 subscription model that can readily be adopted etc. Then we focus on IPhonedroid super nations like merica.

Posted via CB10

paddyo68

They need to push advertising. If people don't know the phones are competitive, they won't risk buying. And that's the risk BlackBerry has to take!

Posted via CB10

Jimberry Storm

Expecting same as before, while hoping for a miracle

jah23

I want to know what new phones they have in the future. Not the Z3 or Q20. We need at least 2 more phones. BB should try to at least bring out 1 phone per Quarter. I'm still waiting for an Elite phone to blow the rumored galaxy and iPhone out the water. They should bring the Z3 in North America for back to school season for the youth with some fancy color and release the Q20 the same time and bring there Elite device in October. And start preparing for a spring device. IMHO

SKN. 869. Z10

jackwaldon

I'd like to hear that they've moved their excessive Z10 inventory. Even if they didn't make much money on it, it will be good to know their is still a customer base there.

ChrisFricke

Well I know they aren't getting any more money from us. We tried BB10 usability compared to the iPhone for business use. The iPhone was better. Not that the OS is bad - it's great - but the apps were missing. No GIS, no Citrix, no Cisco and several other department specific specialty ones. It worked fine if all you ever needed was email. Recently we tried BES10 vs our existing cross-platform MDM solution (Mobile Iron) and quickly decided against it. Almost everything about the platform is inferior (managing policies, device provisioning, deploying apps, etc). Mobile Iron can manage BES10 devices as well so even if we were going to support BB10 phones we don't need BES10.

I wanted it to work. I personally liked the Z10 but the overall experience wasn't nearly good enough to displace the overwhelming success we've had with the iPhone. We're in fast track mode now to replace all legacy BB devices so we can retire BES5 and BES10 before the next maintenance payment is due. I know other agencies in the area are headed the same direction - though maybe a bit behind.

Disclosure: I am not a fanboy of Apple. I prefer Android.

Douken

Money on my pocket

Visit GTR Lifestyle @ [URL="bbmc:C001247FA"]C001247FA[/URL]

Oiram Asojonih

Not expecting good news, but hoping for good news in the form of bad news that is less bad than previous ER and than expected. I remember hearing when Chen took over that something like 6 quarters was the expected time frame for a return to profitability (not that anyone really knows, I mean after all BlackBerry was supposed to have gone bankrupt two years ago after all). That's a long time to tread water and continue to stay afloat. I think Chen has some tricks up his sleeves still though.

Posted via CB10

Matty

apologies for the spam, but if you would like some daily wallpapers for All BB 10 devices have a look at this channel

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or search: ~ BB10 Wallpapers ~ (Premium Q5, Q10, Z10, Z30 Wallpapers)

samvel2001

They can't sell enough phones not because the advertising is on 0 level, but also because of the marketing strategy and some decisions that are simply nonsense.
Where is the right Z30 for the US GSM users (Z30 STA100-1).
I have been patiently (as well 3 other people from my workplace) waiting until it will show up on AT&T or available unlocked.
Instead they came up with the wrong device Z30 STA100-5 and advertise as US GSM compatible. Imagine a person not so Geeky who ordered the device online and paid 499 + TAX and suddenly found out that the device is not compatible with latest and greatest technology in Mobile world (LTE). Please tell me who made this decision ( and many other wrong decisions behind the scenes that we don't even know of)
We Kindly ask and request from John Chen to clear this mess. Upper level managers maybe are on the right path, but many things are based on mid or lower end managers decisions which in many cases mess up the things. I'm sure that the person who made the decision about above mentioned Z30 is not even in US and he is not going to use it so he doesn't really care.
We need John Chen to fix this kind of Stupidity otherwise fellow blackberry users base will continue to decline.

Posted via CB10

BeautyEh

Chris - Can you answer something for those of us here interested in the financial aspects but who don't have much of an economic background:
Does the write-down of Z10 inventory from previous quarters get to translate to real revenue in this quarter (if sold), or future quarters? Because we've read a lot about prices coming down and decent sales in some parts of the world recently, post write-down.
Also curious is the 40m BBM number accurate? That would tentatively put BBM userbase over 100M.

Posted via CB10

nexus2905

Earnings of 1.2 billion and loss of 180 million is what I hoping for.

Posted via CB10

dallyllamma

Confidence.. solid plan.. building BES.. monetizing

Posted via CB10

Omnitech

I think their devices revenue will continue to collapse.

That does NOT mean I think the death of the company is imminent, I just think that this is an expected situation as their focus has been elsewhere for a while. Marketing of BB10 devices has been nil, many carriers and resellers are not carrying the product any more. And with regards to BBOS, that business is shrinking continuously, especially as Android takes away the low end marketshare in the developing markets.

I don't expect to see device revenue to show increases at least for a couple of quarters, partly depending on how the Z3 does in Indonesia. And I don't see much indication they have substantially increased MDM revenues yet, though they are certainly setting the stage for that, possibly as early as next quarter.

elie bader

BlackBerry just need to advertise more and the nbrs will automatically rise up cause both the device and the OS are awesome. Spend some more on the main apps and u're gueered to go!

Posted via CB10

just_say_no_to_crack

When does Verizon's exclusive on the Z30 end?

Benjamin Fast

Now is a good time to sell short. Considering the amount of restructuring and changes that have taken place over the quarter, it seems unlikely that the market will react positively to the information presented on Friday.

That being said, I feel that in the long run, the changes made in the past quarter have set the stage for a very profitable future.

I would recommend short selling the stock, and then buying more in anticipation for future growth.

Posted via CB10

StoicEngineer

I'm braced for Friday.

Looking at the trends in cash burn and BES10 /12 installations/plans will give some idea of the company movement, for me. Expecting some firm guidance for the next quarter and year to counterbalance low numbers from falling BBOS revenue and operational adjustments. On the other hand, we may see some nice numbers from deferred handset sales.

BlackBerry is still in a deep, intense turn around phase. I believe that it too early (by about a year) to expect encouraging financial out-of-the-woods numbers.

Posted via CB10

digitalsurfboard

i'm not confident they will beat the street expectations of only 8% decline in revenue.

less people will have been buying legacy devices, and that decline will certainly not be offset by buyers of BB10 devices.

i don't see how they will have increased service revenue if they are fighting with more competition to just maintain the contracts that they have. do new BES10 contracts bring in more revenue than previous BES contracts?

the only silver lining is if small to medium size businesses have upgraded to BB10 in large enough numbers. personally I have seen quite a few companies upgrade their staff's phones to BB10 from BBOS in the last 2 quarters, but i've also seen tons of individuals switch to Android or iOS.

the other concern is that after the initial push in BBM subscribers, we haven't heard any numbers. i bet a big percentage just checked it out for a few weeks then ditched it. BBM just didn't work well on iOS or Android.

i hope i'm wrong, but i don't think they'll beat the street. the stock's at $9.34 US. i can see it dropping below $9. then i'll buy some :)

digitalsurfboard

one more thing. they slashed the prices on the phones so their margins on hardware will be lower

jic999

I need to see anything on BBM Money from JC

BBM Channels is a great social platform for e-commerce

Z30 : posted via CB10 app

trwallace

everyone has to remember this is the previous quarter. This was a quarter of uncertainty. No direction moving of top people in and out of the company. Setting the path and starting progress on the new strategy as well as stopping programs that were no longer going to work. The quarter will be ugly everyone really understands that fact or should understand that fact. We now have the direction and the plan. We have to look past what the results are because this was during a time when people didnt know what was going to happen with the company so revenues will slow drastically. I am just hoping they dampened expectations enough to allow themselves at least another 3 months to get things turned in the right direction. Yes the sales direction changed as well from general consumer to enterprise and prosumer . So if anything thinks things are going to be bright and rosy they need to give there head a nice shake. Thats just not the case the actuall moves being made now will not even be noticed for another 3-6 months. I get the fact that we want to know where we are starting from. Thinking this is gong to be anything but ugly is just plain stupid.

BB Super Junior

Chris, I think the May quarter will coincide nicely with the world finally noticing BB10. Q3 and Q4 will see BB10 competitive.

Disclosure: This is only my dangerously optimistic guidance that lacks any real rigor or financials.

bigbadben10

Jumping up and down with excitement and anticipation :)

Posted with my gorgeous Z30

markf

BB needs to get its marketers to the carriers to get them to sell and stock BB10 phones. They need to make deals with them. Provide signs for the stores, like I see for the other phones. BB also needs to advertise itself on tv, newspapers, magazines and radio. They need to show their entire lineup. Show that BB is "back", even though it never went anywhere (except into thin air by most peoples reckoning).. It needs to bring out a phone with cutting edge specs. That's the only way to stand out from the crowd of iphones and android phones. Right now BB is a 5 footer in a crowd of 6 footers. No one knows its there. Since I got my Z10 (T-Mo) I have yet to see anyone with a BB10 phone, NO ONE. All I see are the occasional older BB phones. It's all iPhones and Samsungs. If they don't change their marketing strategy, if there is one, they will cease to exist. I like my Z10 and would like to move up to a Z30, but T-Mo doesn't carry it. I am still paying for my Z10 and can't afford to dish out for an unlocked Z30.

Nonocrack

Just reading the title I thought "oh why not have a BlackBerry Q4 for BlackBerry revival " ^^

Posted via CB10

BlackberryFan777

I hope that Chen will unveil the BlackBerry Classic and announce a no-holds-barred sales effort to upgrade US enterprises with both the Classic and BES12.

It's not totally appropriate to do a product announcement on an earnings call, but I don't think he has anything good to talk about. But, there's a chance I'm wrong. I'd like to hear him announce profits after the new Enterprise sales team's successes in North America and pre-orders of the Z3.

But, for me, I just want a Q50/Z50 and a BB10 tablet. BlackBerry fans are fewer than they were, but our price point is pretty elastic. I know many who bought BB10 devices out of contract. I bought 3 out of contract. Is there any reason why I have to wait for premium hardware until after the Android guys have been-there-done-that? I heard Chen say he was happy just breaking even on devices. I'm glad because that will need to be the case to gain marketshare in 2014-2015.

Posted via CB10

Supa_Fly1

"It’s pretty hard to maintain your cash position unless you stabilize revenue or offset a revenue decline with healthy cuts to operating expenses. "

Chris, I'd say BlackBerry selling capital assets like buildings (before amortization cuts it down below perceived market value) and property is how BlackBerry is maintaining their cash position.

This really scares me because Foxconn takes hardware expenses already with the Z3 which hasn't sold yet and with existing BlackBerry BB10 devices not selling as well as they really should this has me VERY worried.

BlackBerry is still moving VERY slowly: eBBM should be available NOW!, BBM MONEY should be pushed on full throttle as many immigrants from I done six are in Canada and the USA - here in Canada two providers support tap pass like payments using NFC and specific secure SIM cards on BlackBerry Q10 devices. - so BlackBerry should be pushing on this to gain market momentum before it's too late.

If hardware sales by units and revenues takes another significant hit (say 500'000 units globally) add to this dropping service revenue on legacy device hardware and services .... that CEO seat is going to get very hot and that grip on the tie for Mr Chen is going to get very tight mighty quick.
ANY 1 price of negative news will re invigorate that "BlackBerry is dead" death call and will perpetuate:

Less apps being developed or upgraded in the future by developers,
Less sales due to the above chant,
Less third party hardware accessories,
More users defecting.

BlackBerry seriously needs a sick designed HERO device with all the bells and whistles - not for the die hard fans no this is to entice beyond recognition beyond belief larger than life causing a hurricane fan shift in eyes towards BlackBerry. The right commercials the right pricing by BlackBerry and carriers for direct selling and it's got to be in both fill touch screen and full qwerty! The Z30 was nice but this is just sick!!

BlackBerry Q10  & Full Metal CB10!

GV2012

Prem (through Chen) will not give guidance as to financials. He stopped doing that long ago.

Rootbrian

I'm hoping for great news, that's all! We do want blackberry to succeed, not go down hill. I won't be disappointed if it's somewhat good news, or neutral.

Posted via CrackBerry 10 (CB10) application using my BlackBerry Q10.

christoph77

Hope for growth in the next fiscal Quarters.

C0038297E Quote of the Day (BBM Channel)

GRojasHruska

Can anyone review the financials of their property sale and lease?

GRojasHruska

P.S. Thanks Chris for always going over this stuff with us!