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Time to buy shares of Research In Motion?

RIM Stock - Time to buy?
By Chris Umiastowski on 7 Nov 2012 03:22 pm EST
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It feels like the right time to revisit Research In Motion's stock price and have a frank discussion about the upside opportunity and the risks. Usually when I write these kinds of posts we get a lot of readership and comments, and I love the interaction.

Let's start by looking back over the last few months. In September, RIM hit lows that we haven't seen since back in 2003. Of course, RIM stock was also below September 2012 levels throughout most of 1999 through 2003.

See the long term stock chart below and you'll understand exactly how dramatic the rise and fall of RIM has been so far.

RIM
Source: Yahoo Finance

Looking at this chart, here's an important investing lesson: Don't plunk down all of your money in one shot. In my case, I first bought shares in 1999. Sadly, the stock had already rallied significantly by late 1999 and I'm about even on that investment over a 13-year holding period. Yuck.

In 2000 I started working as a technology analyst on Bay Street in Toronto. I initiated formal coverage of RIM, and as a result, resisted buying more stock because it never looks good to trade in stocks you cover. So, for over a decade, I didn't add to my RIM holdings.

If I had been an outsider to the investment banking industry, I could have bought more stock during the big dips. For example, back in 2002 RIM was showing very strong growth in device sales, subscriber additions, and revenue. Yet the stock was an absolute bargain. If you were dollar cost averaging (buying in chunks, over time), you'd have done better than I did. So when you want to invest in a technology company it makes sense to do so in chunks, over time, in order to smooth out the natural volatility. Besides, this encourages you to save and invest regularly.

So now let's look at the chart for the last 6 months. RIM has started to climb again. Nobody picks the absolute bottom, but if you had been slowly picking up stock over the summer, your average price would be about $7. So RIM is already up about 25% from there.

RIM
Source: Yahoo Finance

Many portfolio managers won't touch RIM yet. The common view among professional analysts and investors is that you don't go near the stock until BlackBerry 10 launches. Why? Because we all know the financial results will be horrible (and worsening) until that launch.

Yet the stock HAS shown a good recovery despite posting ugly results. Investors were surprised to see the subscriber base still moderately growing. And to a lesser extent, I think people are starting to notice that BlackBerry 10 actually looks pretty good, and might do OK in the marketplace. I'm not kidding when I say that this is the secondary reason for the stock's recent climb. The financial markets are still telling us that RIM will never make the kind of money they used to make.

Let's go through the math. Currently RIM is not profitable. But in the past, RIM has done very well. Analysts often look at EPS (earnings per share) to evaluate a stock. EPS in fiscal 2011, the year of peak earnings, was $6.34 according to data from S&P Capital IQ (note: Thanks to the folks at S&P for giving me access to this awesome tool!)

The average company in the Telecom Services industry trades at just over 14x last year's earnings. So if RIM was to get back to $6.00 in EPS, we should be looking at a stock price over $80. Even if the market believed RIM could get back to half of its historical earnings (say about $3), we should be looking at a $40 stock price.

The fact that RIM trades under $10 tells you, beyond the shadow of a doubt, that the market casts a huge amount of doubt on the inevitable success of RIM in its current form. Remember that the market is a voting machine. Dollars cast votes, and the weighted average result is the stock price.

But stock prices change based on actual outcomes. Last night, for example, if you'd placed a bet on Obama winning the Presidential election, your payout would have been based on the odds. Today, knowing that he's the winner, the price of the bet would have adjusted to reflect this knowledge. In market terms, Obama's stock price just shot up.

And with RIM, we're essentially looking at some version of a binary outcome. It's not quite binary because there are so many variations of a "Plan B" that RIM could execute on. But in terms of BlackBerry 10 and the smartphone market, it pretty much comes down to RIM either returning to reasonable profitability or failing to do so.

With 80 million subscribers, even without accounting for growth, RIM should be able to ship 40 million phones per year. This assumes a 2-year replacement cycle, which I know is a huge generalization and depends on the market. If they can sell 40 million phones at an average price of $350, with 25% gross margin they should make $3.5 billion in gross profit. Tack on service & software revenues, assume some reasonable level of operating expenses, and you end up with a company that makes a lot of money.

The stock price would rocket higher.

But let's not get too excited here. The risks are immense. RIM loves to talk about its $2.3 billion in cash. But they seem to refuse to talk about what's happening to the $1 billion in quarterly service revenue. What if that revenue drops 50% in the next year, as BlackBerry 10 launches, and carriers renegotiate prices. That means a drop of $500 million in quarterly cash flow. Without a return to profitability in the hardware business, the company would be out of cash in 5 quarters.

RIM out of cash? Yeah, it could happen. Of course, just like Nokia, they'd probably go to market with a convertible bond deal or something else to keep them afloat. But I hope this explains why the market is still so skeptical on RIM's future.

Apple and Samsung make good money on hardware. Almost nobody else does. Kevin and I were talking yesterday about the possibility that Google threw LG a bone by giving them the Nexus 4. LG certainly isn't making money on Android (along with most other players), and what if they were considering backing out of the market altogether? That wouldn't look good on Google.

But if RIM can carve out a sustainable profit by owning its own platform, just like Apple, they do stand a realistic chance of success. And success at this point translates to a complete reversal of Wall Street's opinion of the stock, resulting in a massive revaluation. I firmly believe that RIM has more upside potential than Apple in the next 2 years. But that upside opportunity comes with more risk.

Can RIM resume its path as a profitable smartphone maker and mobile computing platform? Separately, can RIM leverage its carrier relationships, NOC, and QNX platform to emerge as a global machine-to-machine leader? They certainly have an opportunity in automotive. But what about other vertical markets in need of M2M solutions? Could this space be even more profitable than smartphones have been? It sure is an interesting set of questions to ponder.

So is it time to buy shares of RIM? It's up to you, as an investor, to make up your own mind. I'm not going to tell you what to do because it's such a personal decision to make. If you have a strong convinction one way or the other, be sure to share it in the comments.

Reader comments

Time to buy shares of Research In Motion?

76 Comments

I bought some shares a while back when it was around $6/share. Nothing major, but I figured this could be another "contribution" to the company that I have faith will make a strong return.

Unless you invest tens of thousands of dollars in RIMM you are never going to see substantial ROI despite a 25% increase in RIMM share price between Summer 2012 and Autumn 2012. A few shares are meaningless to your portfolio.

25% is 25%. I don't care if it is on $100 or 1M. 25% is respectable and it's value on return is relative to the investor. There are whales that will tell you a return of 25% on 10M would be peanuts. And at the same time there are individuals who would be more than willing to save 25% on a $10 purchase. It's all relative. But the constant is 25%. Always respectable. It's okay to hit singles. You can't hit a grand slam without runners on base.

Exactly! 25% return when you're lucky to get 5% most places? Count me in.
For sure at their crazy prices you aren't going to get 25% buying shares of Apple or Google or Microsoft or Nokia.

Buy Buy Buy! (said like the way they do it on Mad Money with the button Cramer hits)

Ahh... CramerWatch.org. Fun website while it lasted.

Any stock agency that deals on Nasdaq will do. Just make sure they are reliable.

You don't want them running away with your cash! :p

I've been thinking on buying some for a few months, but I have the same problem, I'm not from USA or Canada, and to be honest I still can't be sure about agencies.... If anyone knows about any reliable on-line agency that deals in Europe (Portugal or Spain) please post, thks

id love to see the same analysis of apple shares. since peaking at just over $700 two months ago, apple`s shares have dropped by about 20% to todays price of $561. thats a massive drop, $$ value aside, its 20% in two months. note how aggressive the media has been with RIM when it drops share value, and ask yourself if you`ve seen anything close based on the sudden drop in apple shares.

As for BB10? yes i think it`ll be great (as long as the apps are there of course) but i wouldnt expect the company to pivot on that, not right away at least, i think the markets will need to see at least 2 quarters of positive results before really getting engaged again.

As for where apple`s shares are headed? it all depends on RIM and WP8, if they make inroads into apple`s marketshare, then it could be not great, whereas if the majority of their (new) custom comes from android and other platforms, then apple could once again get itself up in value, i think it really depends where the marketshare goes in Q1 to Q3 of 2013.

As a closing thought, steve jobs came back into apple, simplified their product range due to way too many similar devices being an issue and apple slowly sinking, of course we know what happened then. Thing is, look at their product portfolio now, and theyve slowly slipped back into the same situation of having so many variations that it could be an issue or even history repeating itself.

To put the slide in perspective. That is a $140 Billion, yes Billion with a B, drop in market cap. In RIMs heyday they had a market cap of $80B.

To be fair, Apple was WAY overvalued when they hit $700. That is not a knock on Apple, but the stock should not have been that high to begin with. I think that if the price was never over valued, it would have still come back down with some of the recent changes they have made and issues they have had, but it wouldn't have been 20+%.

for the same reason people buy gold and other comodities, you purchase, wait for the value to go up, then sell for (hopefully) a handsome profit.

People buy stocks with dividends to get income throughout the year to either reinvest or use for other reasons. They buy stocks without dividends for long term investments hoping that the stock price will increase faster than interest from a bank. Obviously people buy divident stocks for long term investments and non dividend stocks for a quick turn around as well though.

Throughout history, the stock market as a whole has outperformed most other types of investments, but they do come with risks. If you bought RIM 3 years ago, you lost everything. However, if you bought Apple 6 years ago, you have made a ton of money. And, without doing the math, if you diversified and bought both Apple and RIM (as well as other stocks to truly diversify), chances are that you would have made more money than if you had it sitting in an interest bearing savings account.

Growth, cap appreciation. It doesn't matter much if the stock pays a dividend or returns in growth, return on investment is what counts. In fact it is a wash. A stock pays 5% dividend and trades in a close range, you make 5%. A stock you pay $6 for and it doubles you make a %100%.

People who look for dividends usually are looking for safety of capital and much of the time, a steady stream of income without selling the stock, so it depends on your situation.

This is a pretty simple view of the reasons of what to buy and the investor's goals. Actually, this proposition is discussed endlessly, with entire books devoted to the subject.

I will say that anyone who thinks buying stock and making money consistently is easy, or that it is "free money" should think more about the subject prior to plunking down the jingle.

Nick

I have stocks in RIM. And don't mind the risks associated with owning RIM stocks. If I was to make a recommendation though is for people to stop and breath before they buy - too many times I have seen people saying they are going to buy stocks in RIM because they "like" them; that is a horrible way to do investment. Do your research; understand your own fiscal risks and responsibilities; and invest based on strategy - not emotion.

haha couldn't agree more.

it's easy to confuse liking a product and liking their stock. not saying that there won't be overlap, but always have to be able to differentiate the 2.

for example:
rogers communication? nay on their products, yay on their stock and not a bad dividend either

Exactly. I stayed away from buying RIMM for many years while I enjoyed using their products. Early on, I could have made money on them, but I didn't think the stock would increase enough to make the investment worth it. I loved the product, but didn't like the investment. That being said, I know RIM better than any other company (besides my own company) and have made a very educated decision to buy stocks. I actually bought and sold in the peaks and valleys since about may (I think) and actually did very well. About 3-4 weeks ago I decided to make my long term move and wait for my investment to hopefully increase over the next few years.

The way I see it, I invested a certain amount of my own money, played the peaks and valleys just right to make about a 25% return and will risk it all because I see little risk and incredible potential. When I say little risk, I have not invested anything besides what I am willing to lose, and there is almost no chance of losing 100% of my investment (they would be bought out before the stock went that low anyways). However, I could see them in the long run getting back up to $35+ per share. Not saying they will, or even that that is probable, but it is possible. So, I can lose about 75% of my investment, or I could gain about 500% or more. I consider that a risk I am willing to take.

jamaican BB fanboy
One of the most insightful comments I've seen on crackberry. No emotions just logics. I need someone like you to manage rimm`s market

I concur. Couldn't have said it any better... I've been in RIMM since $14/share because book value of it as a broken up company was/is $18, not because I like the product (which I do).
Obviously it went down from there so I waited until $6/share and dollar cost averaged down to $9/share...

I'll see your "buy" on RIM and raise a short on APPL some time in Q3 after BB10 establishes a good buzz and works as expected.

Not to be a Negative Nancy but by that time Apple will probably have released the Apple iPhone X along with an updated OS. Or maybe you think Apple will license BlackBerry 10 OS for the next generation Apple iPhone X.

"Blackberry 10" won't be on apple's hardware, or anybody's hardware. QNX will likely be on it, once it's prepared to be licensed out on more mobile hardware with an overtop software UI layer.

Kicking myself that I didn't buy any before the last earnings call.. I was expecting a further dip so I could swoop in and purchase a boat load.. Now it's only going to be a dingy full, especially if it keeps climbing..

#BB10Believe!

dude I almost shorted RIMM before their last call... was NOT expecting the numbers they had haha would have taken a bit of a beating.

To be honest, I felt the same way at first, but realized that in the long run, hopefully the difference in the price from before to after the earnings call will be very minor compared to the overall price of the stock in the long run.

I wish Chris listed out his reasons why RIM can still succeed with BB10. Maybe, it can come later on another article? Personally, I've been buying shares of RIM every paycheck when its price was lingering below $8. Here are some of the reasons why I think RIM is a bargain and why BB10 can turn their situation around:

1. It will be the most fresh OS and it's also potentially superior even over android and IOS.
2. There is still a need for physical key board out there and BBs pretty much monopolize that feature.
3. Immense international popularity. They still have 80M subscribers.
4. superior security.
5. best email service.
6. opportunities in automotive. QNX is being use in a lot of cars right now.
7. possibility of licensing to samsung and other companies.
8. Peek and flow and other BB10 features make it unique from all these similar cellphones.
9. It's capable of true multi-tasking.
10. I read somewhere that their apps are capable of invoking in other apps within the program making it more powerful than those apps available for androids and iphones. (I'm not a developer so I'm probably not explaining this in proper terms)
11. Potentially has the best browser, touch keyboard, camera, screen resolution.
12. Keyboard can predict multiple languages.
13. Easiest to develop for with apps.
14. Number of apps will increase due to BB jam sessions worldwide; because RIM offers best chance of earning money to developers; because BB10 scores highest in HTML 5 tests.
15. The hub and the calendar make it easy for people to check stuff.
16. Mini HDMI port.
17. Dual profile for BYOD. Awesome feature for those that use their phones for work.
18. They have BBM. It is still popular in countries that take advantage of free bb messaging.

To me, as long as I know BB10 is on track for its release, RIM will be a buy for any price below its book value. Any big drops like today is a buying opportunity! :)

This stock is a 10 Banger!!!!
Buy low, sell high ... that is how money is made.

Massive upside to RIM: ( CONFIDENTIAL ! )

1) They are the SOLE SECURED CONNECTION for all mobile credit card transactions in Canada. ( Android and Microsoft need to bow down to them for access. Apple is a no go as their current OS does not allow for it). Many more added countries will be announced over the next 6 months.

2) There are approximately 434 BILLION credit card transactions processed yearly world wide. RIM will get a fee of approximately $0.038 per transaction. That equals 16.49 Billion in profit.

3) Once BB10 is launched, BBM subscribers will double within the next 2 years. ( You do the math this time )

4) Top executives need a secure phone, so it's BlackBerry all the way. Top government officials love to PIN the Pres., so they won't be giving up their BlackBerrys. There is always a trace to emails, and other apps that are not as secure. BBM and PINNING between BlackBerrys is as secure as it gets.

5) Cars - On board PlayBooks will become standard in all vehicles very soon. QNX is the most reliable software on the market today.

And this is only a sample of what's coming.
Do the analyst know all this? Not yet. But when the stock is at $50 per share, they will be screaming, " BUY BUY BUY. RIM IS A BUY"

The shorts will be loosing their shirt !

( Why is Apple dropping hard? Read #1 again )

Disclosure: I may purchase huge blocks of shares in RIM over the next 72 hours.

Your facts are incorrect.

1)> http://press.rim.com/newsroom/press/2012/rim_s-secure-element-manager-so...

Research In Motion (RIM)(NASDAQ: RIMM; TSX: RIM) today announced that it has been selected by EnStream LP, a joint venture of Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Partnership and TELUS Communications Company, to provide its Secure Element Manager (SEM) solution to manage credentials on wireless handsets in Canada that support Near Field Communication (NFC) services. NFC is the technology that can make secure, convenient and contactless mobile payments a reality for Canadian wireless handset users.

This ONLY affects Canadian markets for RIM's business! If you read the article by RIM themselves (press release) this is expected to be 5 Million NFC purchases by 2014, well below your numbers.

2) is skewed to worldwide markets which RIM still does not have an ironclad deal with. YES RIM is a pioneer with NFC payment testing for the past 7yrs if not more in Europe/Asia - I've blogged the facts months ago as I did heavy research that not even Crackberry did. You're talking global payments here ... these are NOT specific to RIM and RIM doesn't have a partnership yet that is outside of Canada ... in time they will.

3) again this is your opinion ... you're saying BB subscribers will double or the NFC payment subscriptions will double?? RIM has NEVER doubled subscriber base, ever - they've come VERY close though ... 80million BB users (60million subscriptions is HUGE to double in 2yrs - YOU do the match).

4) Excutives can be secured with an MDM solution that competes with BES5/10 with various other platforms of their choosing. RIM is NOT the only game in the business. DO YOUR RESEARCH!

5) You're right here ... but times are changing VERY fast!
Audi uses Tegra 3 chips in ALL 2011 products going forward. They ALSO have a prototype using iPad 9.7" as a completely intregrated MMI system.
http://fourtitude.com/news/Audi_News_1/apple-ipad-centers-full-ui-integr...

If RIM doesn't intensify vs glorifying QNX - and working with car manufacturers to accept secure connections & applications in co-operation with BB10 devices (PlayBook or those waiting to debut in March 2013) their going to loose incredible amounts of revenue to support further R&D projects. I'm hoping Lazaridis or Balsillie (who's STILL on the board of directors) will fork in a huge amount of their personal wealth to help RIM if times get very GRIM.

PS: I bought 5 RIM shares when they where at 6.97CAN the day of their last quarterly results. Their at 8.xx currently. I also support BB devices and 5 BES installations all with 70 cals; and have been supporting BB's for almost 10yrs for BES integration.

#7 is wrong. It's going to be, if it ever does, be licensed out as QNX. Nobody has confirmed this "possibility" yet. And please stop reposting it on every article chris writes and publishes.

I expect that the sales will increase after the release of the Blackberry 10. It depends how it can take market share from the Samsung. I think the expectation is that the reception of the Blackberry 10 would be like the Windows 8 for the mobile. I would expect the higher margins for the products because of the target market. The target market is the enterprise. I expect that the revenues for the services would increase because of the support for the other platforms. I expect the RIM to build the reputation in the handsets. The iPhone got the popular because of the experiences of the medias. The HTC is the profitable after their sales are falling.

I think they have the more work after the launch of the Blackberry 10. From the view of the investing, the RIM has the many questions left unanswered.

- Rezaur Rahman

I don't think you really understand what "Target Market" is. You're referring to BB10 as an entirely single product, when it not ... its a platform, with various product segments, thus Target markets.

PlayBook is the only product that can easily reach both consumer/business (Enterprise fits here) markets.

BB10 L-Series: this works mostly for the consumer markets, since the business/enterprise markets have targeted user experience that is in line with a physical keyboard. Another generation of workers (Y gen) to the top brass may change that. Note that this will be RIM's 4th attempt at touch screen only device - so they better get this right and Target-Market consumers with this, NOT the business/enterprise user!!

BB10 N-Series: (if this is the keyboard/touchscreen combo device) this is set to be targeted specifically to the business/enterprise user markets ... where the end user and supporting team will really on the keyboard more for data entry and the touchscreen for navigation/augmentation of resoluting data for consumption. This is why the BB9900 is just so damn successful for RIM.

BES10: THIS is a product based on its on platform that supports legacy and upcoming BB10 platforms that is TARGETED tot he Enterprise market ... solely!

That all said this can vary due to various global markets where price points set for north america will not work in Calcutta or Nairobi or Mauritania.

I should add that it's nice to know that Prem Watsa is on our side. So at least I know I'm not crazy that I see RIM's shares as a big, giant bargain.

Chris, this article is from Barron's; this analyst is still trash RIMM stock. Here is quote "Faucette has bad news for Research in Motion (RIMM), whose BlackBerrys are “disappearing in North America.” “Our checks found some retail locations at each of the U.S. big four carriers that were not actively stocking BlackBerry products.” Faucette’s take on RIMM itself is to reiterate his Underperform rating, predicting that the coming revamp of the BlackBerry operating system, dubbed “BB10,” which is due sometime in Q1, will be “dead on arrival” and that a sale of the company is now too late: We expect the new OS to be met with a lukewarm re- sponse at best and ultimately likely to fail due to the new and unfamiliar UI, lack of complementary devices, relatively few applications and what we believe to be a general reticence by app developers to develop for the platform. Now just waiting for BB10, shareholders are likely to be disappointed. Given the critical importance of the coming BB10 ramp, the financial burden of building BB10 devices and the likely increasing pressure on the company’s balance sheet, we believe the time for a sale may likely have already come and gone. We do not expect these products to gain meaningful traction outside of the purest of BlackBerry loyalists. If and as we find this scenario becoming increasingly clear to the market, we expect RIMM to come under further downside pressure."

Sleeze Faucette times his doom RIMM reports for maximum effect (for shorting).
BB10 is DOA. how does he know that? BB10 hasnt arrived.
Faucettes employer Pac Crest is a bucket shop.

CONFIDENTIAL !

I think that Faucette is a sneaky guy. I'm hearing that he is cheating on his wife. With a MAN.

It appears that he is having a hard time deciding which way to go. He is worried that his children will look at him as a total failure in life. He is known to be very negative in life, yet his new man admires this in him. ( We have heard that his male partner is really a Shemale ). Go figure why he is so negative !

IMO, that analyst is under estimating RIM big time. Think about it this way, right now BBs have super outdated OS that's completely out classed handsdown, but yet, they still have 80 million subscriber. What do you think will happen after BB10 launches? I completely disagree with that analyst. I listed my reasons in the my comment above on why i think BB10 can turn RIM's fortune around and why i've been hording their shares. Btw, prem watsa is bullish on RIM so i know im not way out of left field with my perspective on rim.

83.5 Million BB users will be switching over to the new BB10 in a 2 year period.
That is 41+ million AND new additional users. We are looking at a minimum of 90 Million + each year.

The stock is a 10 Banger !!

Well let's take a little closer look at faucette and his predictions. First, he is an analyst with Pacific Coast Securities, a company with a less than sterling reputation. Sort of a chop shop for securities, known to prey on the weak and stupid. Recently they went long on Apple at 700 dollars and are taking a beating on this investment. Second, how does he know that BB10 will meet a Luke warm response. This is based on pure speculation and his view that BB10 is too complicated for the average user. This is complete rubbish. There is nothing complicated about QNX. The swipe features and options are simply brilliant and setting the trend in the mobile computing field. Time to face the fact that Apple's OS is heading into the sunset. The in and out paradigm is done and it is time to move on. Third, who said developers are not working with the BB10 platform. Even RIM let it slip the other day that there is over 110,000 Bb10 apps already built and ready to go. So by launch, the number will be even higher. Not surprisingly as it is an easy platform to build for. Fourth, why would BB10 only be appealing to loyalists? This is simply lazy logic. If it is truly miles ahead of the competition, then people will buy it.

It seems to me that faucette is projecting his anxieties as to the deficiencies in the latest Apple releases. A outdated UX/UI, limited ability to integrate new hardware like NFC and being completely outdone by BB10 balance in the enterprise space. Apple's only selling feature was the diversity of the App store and that advantage is rapidly disappearing.

Well let's take a little closer look at faucette and his predictions. First, he is an analyst with Pacific Coast Securities, a company with a less than sterling reputation. Sort of a chop shop for securities, known to prey on the weak and stupid. Recently they went long on Apple at 700 dollars and are taking a beating on this investment. Second, how does he know that BB10 will meet a Luke warm response. This is based on pure speculation and his view that BB10 is too complicated for the average user. This is complete rubbish. There is nothing complicated about QNX. The swipe features and options are simply brilliant and setting the trend in the mobile computing field. Time to face the fact that Apple's OS is heading into the sunset. The in and out paradigm is done and it is time to move on. Third, who said developers are not working with the BB10 platform. Even RIM let it slip the other day that there is over 110,000 Bb10 apps already built and ready to go. So by launch, the number will be even higher. Not surprisingly as it is an easy platform to build for. Fourth, why would BB10 only be appealing to loyalists? This is simply lazy logic. If it is truly miles ahead of the competition, then people will buy it.

It seems to me that faucette is projecting his anxieties as to the deficiencies in the latest Apple releases. A outdated UX/UI, limited ability to integrate new hardware like NFC and being completely outdone by BB10 balance in the enterprise space. Apple's only selling feature was the diversity of the App store and that advantage is rapidly disappearing.

My view is more of a macro one. It's not just RIM, I think it's the stock market in general that's going to have a rocky ride over the next 1-2 years unless the U.S. can get it's financial house in order - fast!. External forces like this will pull the entire market down regardless of how RIM or any other company on the stock exchange performs.

I want to see RIM succeed just like all of us here on Crackberry, but right now I'm bearish on stocks.

Just 1 more thing to think about when you're buying RIM shares.

I went to invest a while ago but you need to invest a minimum of 500 dollars. Not sure if that's my bank policy or what but I'm a poor student so i'm working up to that slowly. kind of wish I had the money because when I went to buy it was at about $ 5.90 a share! I have a lot of faith in rim, and I'm a proud blackberry owner. I want to support the company during it's hard times, I want to be a part of something new.

i bought some stock back in July when it was $10.79, all i can do is play te waiting games until the launch of the bb10, and then wait some more

I'm 17 and I bought 500 shares of RIMM when it was $7.80, let's hope I don't go in debt so early in my life lol

The parasite class just took over America. The coming recession is going to make profitable companies hard to justify investing in. RIM? Good luck. You're going to need it.

I'm absolutely long RIMM and have been working on convincing others to have a look at BB10 as well as the company as a whole. With that said, my current strategy is to continue to buy in increments until I reached the current estimated book value, which is still a steal. Any share price above and beyond that equals a WIN for me and for RIM, although I'm investing for the long-term.

One thing I'd like to note is that in countless articles I read daily about RIM and BlackBerry, most of the writers/analyst (not you Chris) are pretty bearish and mostly comment on the financial side and they only seem to think or write from the view that all RIM has is the BlackBerry product line. However, I have not seen much talk about the potential of RIM thru:

- the understated power and value of QNX
- the ability for developers to potentially develop apps for infotainment systems in cars
- being first to grab market share in the auto industry
- revenue that could be generate thru providing security layer for NFC payments
- Mobile Fusion
- companies acquired
- data compression technology
- patent for placing fuel cells behind mobile phone keyboards

I mean some of this is groundbreaking, unchartered territory. This is the kind of forward thinking I look for in a company when investing long-term. What's the growth potential? Is the company showing any signs of where they're headed? Are all their eggs in one basket? There's much more to chew on if really dig into the possibilities of the techhy side of RIM. Then again the name of the company is Research In Motion, and trust me, they are just starting the engines back up. It will rolling full speed ahead soon.

Proud owner of a BlackBerry Playbook & Torch & Shares in RIMM
www.xposeurphoto.com

Chris, RIM does have the revolving line of credit do they not? I cannot recall (assuming they do) the amount but one thing that does baffle me a bit is why has RIM waited so long without going to market for debt or equity placement seeing that they could be in a very dire cash (Cash Burn) situation if things do not go almost perfect? I do realize equity placement would be the last thing they would want at the current share price as it would not generate much liquidity per theequity they would sell but how about debt?
Terms too expensive you think?
Being an owner of FFH for quite a few years and following Prem Watsa, and the consideration he is now on board, he has had to run this route a significant amount of times in the past for his holding company/Insurance Cos when they were in near death territory. I am surprised with him on the board, and his skill at hedging, one of these vehicles for safety (albeit at a cost) has not come to up.

This stock is a 10 Banger!!!!
Buy low, sell high ... that is how money is made.

Massive upside to RIM: ( CONFIDENTIAL ! )

1) They are the SOLE SECURED CONNECTION for all mobile credit card transactions in Canada. ( Android and Microsoft need to bow down to them for access. Apple is a no go as their current OS does not allow for it). Many more added countries will be announced over the next 6 months.

2) There are approximately 434 BILLION credit card transactions processed yearly world wide. RIM will get a fee of approximately $0.038 per transaction. That equals 16.49 Billion in profit.

3) Once BB10 is launched, BBM subscribers will double within the next 2 years. ( You do the math this time )

4) Top executives need a secure phone, so it's BlackBerry all the way. Top government officials love to PIN the Pres., so they won't be giving up their BlackBerrys. There is always a trace to emails, and other apps that are not as secure. BBM and PINNING between BlackBerrys is as secure as it gets.

5) Cars - On board PlayBooks will become standard in all vehicles very soon. QNX is the most reliable software on the market today.

And this is only a sample of what's coming.
Do the analyst know all this? Not yet. But when the stock is at $50 per share, they will be screaming, " BUY BUY BUY. RIM IS A BUY"

The shorts will be loosing their shirt !

( Why is Apple dropping hard? Read #1 again )

Disclosure: I may purchase huge blocks of shares in RIM over the next 72 hours.

TORONTO (Reuters) - Research In Motion Ltd said on Thursday it has won a much-coveted U.S. government security clearance for its yet-to-be launched platform for BlackBerry 10 devices that are expected to hit store shelves in the first quarter of 2013.

The company said its BlackBerry 10 platform has received the FIPS 140-2 certification, which would allow government agencies to deploy the devices, along with the new enterprise management platform to run the devices, as soon as the new smartphones are launched.
The Waterloo, Ontario-based company said this is the first time BlackBerry products have been FIPS certified ahead of launch.

"Achieving FIPS certification for an entirely new platform in a very short period of time, and before launch, is quite remarkable," RIM's head of security certifications, David MacFarlane, said in a statement.

The BB10 launch is all that BB users want till that time RIM better have their marketing strategy ready to 150% with a dedicated user friendly on how to use a BB10 phone and in combination with Playbook website.

Then they need to get their banking , government and carrier partnerships locked and secured.
They need a promo on all their apps and lets not forget SKYPE and netflix etc....

So am I buying RIM, yes at $7 or $ 8 bucks is a shoe in for me plus several LEAP $9.00 calls 2014 for me.

BB10 waiting for you !!

To be fair ... I don't think a blog site should ever contain posts offering investment advice for a company their clearly support. This is BAD for users, visitors and especially for those offering the advice: its called Pump & dump.

Please everyone: Do NOT take ANY advice from any blog site without FULLY RESEARCHING the company and whom is offering the advice!!!!
Disclaimers will not help protect such blog sites or those offering the advice ... including mine!

Just research and seek professional help by those licensed to offer it and publicly clear about whom they represent & work for and how they obtain their commission/earnings and their track record.

How do you eat an elephant...one bite at a time, so in that spirit I'm educating my small circle of business clients in the benefits of BB and their up coming devices....instead of the usual gift certificates and trinkets I donate for customers Christmas parties this year I'm donating 32 gig Playbooks...updated OS and preinstalled with some business apps of course. I am confident this will not only distinguish us as a stand out in their minds but help convert or bring back some users to the BB brand.