Stock Talk: BlackBerry 10 one week later

BlackBerry 10
By Chris Umiastowski on 7 Feb 2013 10:33 am
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As of today, BlackBerry 10 has been public and in people's hands for just over one week. A lot has been written by industry pundits and analysts. Even more has been written by Team CrackBerry, who's mission is to bring you more insightful and helpful information than anyone else out there.

So let's look back over the last week and think about what has happened.

The big launch happened last Wednesday in NYC. The stock had been rallying hard in advance of Wednesday. It traded over $16 per share the morning of the launch and then crashed within 30 minutes of the launch event. By the next day the stock was in the mid $12 range.

The major components of the negative reaction are: 1) Z10 not hitting the US market until March; 2) Not enough big name apps announced; 3) Nothing really new announced compared to what was already known. There just wasn't enough good news to counteract Wall Street's feelings that this was not enough.

In my view, BlackBerry should not have press released news the day before and the day after the event. That was a mistake. Why tell us the expanded catalog of song, movies and TV shows two days before the launch? Why press release the great selection of apps the day after the launch? BlackBerry, please explain to me why you didn't announce all these amazing Unity games that are coming to BlackBerry 10 on the actual launch day rather than doing it 6 days later?

I can understand why the market was so negative on the launch. It was easier to see the bad news than the good news, especially for bearish analysts and investors.

Yet, if you look at the recovery in the stock price since January 31st, it's evident that BlackBerry did something amazingly right.

First, they seeded devices to everyone in the audience at the global launch events. Thousands of media (and analysts) now have Z10s in their hands. BlackBerry even made it uber simple to start using them immediately. For example in Toronto they handed out pre-activated Canadian carrier SIM cards along with the devices. That's 60 days of free service for everyone. That's a lot of influential people showing off their new Z10. Marketing money well spent. Every time I show off the Hub, keyboard, time shift camera or BBM video with screen sharing people say to me, "Oh man, I want that phone!"

The UK and Canadian launches were also well coordinated. In the UK the phones went on sale the day after the global launch event. In Canada, they went on sale 6 days later, but the Canadian operators were very aggressive with pre-orders. This has never happened before in BlackBerry land. Smart move. It's working.

BlackBerry Canada 

Between stories of sell-outs in the UK and strong pre-orders in Canada, people were busy reading online reviews of the Z10. Of the media folks who had Z10 review units under embargo before the launch, they all had reviews queued up to be published the moment the embargo was lifted. That's why you saw such a flurry of posts on CrackBerry on Wednesday morning last week.

The reviews were mixed, as always. Many influential people loved the Z10. Some didn't see it as being different enough. The usual complaint was about apps. But the people who complain about apps don't get the fact that this is the strongest pre-launch developer support any platform has ever had. When iOS launched it had zero apps. When Android launched I don't know how many apps it had, but it wasn't 70,000. BlackBerry has been very aggressive (and successful) over the last year in making it easy for developers to bring apps to the platform. They're coming. More will come. This is not the old RIM. This is the new BlackBerry.

The bulls on the stock point to the strong preorder volume, the mix of non-BlackBerry customers who are buying the Z10, and the record setting sales numbers that BlackBerry announced yesterday. The bears point to manufactured scarcity as the reason for stock-outs, and find poorly trained store managers to show as "proof" that nobody wants a Z10. Some of the logic could pass as comedy if the stakes in this game weren't so high.

One week after the launch, I'm quite enthusiastic about where BlackBerry stands. When I show people the phone they want one. They see how different it really is. The product is exceptional. It's not without minor bugs, but no showstoppers are present and it really is an incredible phone that is a joy to use. 

I think it's going to sell very well. It remains to be seen how well, and obviously the numbers matter a lot to the financial future of the company.

This is only the beginning. BlackBerry has to drive its QNX-powered car at full speed. They need to get carrier approval in the US as quickly as possible. They need to be out in full force marketing. They need to keep hunting down developers. They need to deliver on promises to bring Skype and Kindle (and other committed apps) to the platform. They need to aggressively go after new sources of service revenue to counteract the obvious decline in BIS service fees that is coming.

In short, there is still a TON of work left to do. But I believe we're looking at a new company. As far as the consumer market is concerned, BlackBerry is back.

102 comments

NamelessStar

lots of work to do but this is going to skyrocket if things can keep up like this

Eskibo

I'm pretty sure they've only just started to accelerate. Next is USA, Europe and the rest of the world. It's going to be big in my pow.

pallox

Totally agree! It just has to get big imo!

BlackberryIsAwesome

First step: release the new product. Second step: MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING MARKETING! Not just one Superbowl commercial or something on youtube where you have to go and look...ADVERTISING in print and on TV. Saturate the public about the NEW BB. Do what Apple and Android does and market the crap out of the phone so those that have no idea about the new BB will go check it out! We CrackBerry followers know about the new product, but the average iPhone or Andriod user doesn't. You have to SPEND money to make money.

noodle3288

+1. They got to market like they never have before!

SuperionMaximus

They are spending it. At least in Canada. Go to ANY Walmart in Canada - the BlackBerry table is as large as the iPhone table. HUGE posters and demo phones. Wireless Wave and Telephone Booth Stores (same owner) similar story, posters, stands, live demo phones. Carrier stores are even more saturated. Bonus cash, Telus will give you a $50 bill credit on top of what they would normally buy back your phone for if you trade up to a Z10, Rogers, strong introductory price, Bell, posters everywhere, live demo phones. My local Futureshop has TWO demo stations set up right now for the Z10. Carriers and retailers are pushing it hard.

But they need that kind of support in the USA and they will have to pay big time for it there.

BlackBerry needs to be an "it" phone. Stores need to have iPhone, Samsung and BLACKBERRY posters and the keep moving campaign needs to have consumers coming in the doors asking for the new BlackBerry.

blackhove

I have a Z10. Let's not kid ourselves the app selection is pathetic. If they had launched in the US with this kind of selection it would have been over for BlackBerry.
The android ports are so poor they should just remove them and not bother. It's lazy developers who wanted free phones.

RubberChicken76

Tried them all have you?

Not that you don't raise a good point about a flood of bad apps, I really hate sweeping statements about all apps when people have only tried a tiny percentage of 70,000.

scalemaster34

He doesn't need to try them all just the ones that he wants to use, if those key apps don't work for him then HE should move on to another platform.

Of course that is one of the reasons RIM/BB got into such a sorry state to begin with... people moving on.

BruvvaPete2

So he tried a few apps that he wasn't impressed with and now the entire 70,000 apps in Blackberry World is garbage? Give me a #@$%(*& break.

Jtaylor1986

He's right. It is brutal as of today. There are literally no big name apps. It doesn't seem like Mallick and his team accomplished a whole lot as of today other than committments. I was expecting it to be ok not great at launch but it is really a wasteland as of this second. I am very happy with the phone overall though.

Jimcmf

Apps are for children. GROW UP!

thisiscjay

So frustrating seeing ppl comment on something they know nothing about. This issue is due to the limitations of the Android Runtime currently implemented in BB10.
its using 2.3.3 (gingerbread) right now but this will be updated to 4.1 very soon. It has nothing to do with "lazy developers" or the apps being "poor"

BBVegasGirl80

+1 The aggressive push is coming to the U.S. too. Superbowl was just a taste of the new BlackBerry (pun intended). ;-) Especially since BB sales have suffered so much here. When I visit LA next time I want to see a huge ad on the side of that building on Wilshire where the iPad mini ad was. I want to see BB10 everywhere! :-D

Superfly_FR

The whole plan is marketing. But it's not about flooding. It's about (my personal take)

a)Excite BlackBerry people and make them spread the word it's coming : done
b)Seduce the influential media and internet people : done
c)Transform early adopters into device/brand evangelists with easy demo of differentiating key feature (hub, timeshift, BBM video) and make others salivate : on progress
d)repeat a-b-c until all geographic launches are ok (even if US were late, 3 waves were planned on day 1).
e)Sharpen the OS with OTA incremential updates based on users experience (remember, that's a first iteration of a brand new OS and OTA incremential updates are also part of BB10/QNX beauty !)
f)Collect returns, sharpen the message, polish the OS

g)Now you can out the big guns.

DJRME

Keep the heat on, let's put the Z10 in the number one spot. Follow the link and vote for the Z10.

http://www.phonedog.com/rankings/smartphones/

Trini-34

Excellent! Thank you for sharing! Now send a Z10 to the US so we can feel like part of the family again! lol

SurrealCivic

The big question is: Can RIM/BlackBerry make money off of the Z10 and the Q10?

I don't expect margins to skyrocket on hardware, they will definitely bring in more revenue; but how much will they make off of it?

And we all know that revenue from services will continue to fall as more and more people switch from BlackBerry 7 devices running BIS to BlackBerry 10 with no BIS.

Eskibo

Naturally this has all been foreseen, and budgets already been made.

SurrealCivic

So your saying that they have 'budgeted' for lower revenue from services, and falling margins from hardware? Please care to explain how a company can budget for something like this? Where are they going to get the money? Borrow?

Thebigo3d

Of course they have budgeted for this.

Budgeting isn't only about making/borrowing more money to cover your expenses. It’s also about trimming the fat and stretching each and every dollar that you spend. All companies in a state of rapid growth start to become inefficient because it’s all too easy to hire more staff then to fix small problems in your workforce. It’s not until growth tops off or declines that most companies realize there size and work to become more efficient.

Look at the previous round of layoffs/terminations, they didn't do this because they couldn't afford people at the time (were talking about a company with no debt that was still somewhat profitable even without a new handset in the market), they did it because they were thinking ahead to a future with decreased service revenues.

There is no doubt that a solution was in the works for this financial situation the day they made the call to dump BIS for BB10.

scalemaster34

I budget for a lot of stuff too... to bad things tend to come up that tend to throw my budgets all out of whack.

RIM/BB has got to be hoping that Mobile Management options will become popular and the the licensing of new BB10 devices on corporate BES networks, along with the licensing fees for managing other none BB devices will off set those decreased service revenues.

Superfly_FR

Sorry, but what "falling margins from hardware" are you talking about ? Basically, I believe we've come back approx 3 years ago, when RIM incomes were mostly device based and services (consumer BIS) the cake sugarcoat. Also, BES10 should now generate CAL revenues for non-BB devices in "BYOD" or "MDM" enabled companies.
Borrow ? Why not; if the stock keeps a solid - but rational - bullish trend, I believe they would have no problem to borrow, if needed ... wait a minute ... isn't that what the stocks are (originally) made for ?
=> Only the rich get credit ;)

tallbruva

The trend now is to make money post sale of hardware.

What they need to do next is buy an ad company like Millennial Media that has a wide reach. Then they can make money off paid AND free apps in Blackberry World.

Zippy1101

One other thing to keep in mind is that Android took a couple years to get to the point it's at now and it's taken a number of softeare updates/ upgrades to get people excited and talking about it.

There's hope for BlackBerry. They never said this is the end for them, but rather a new begining.

Living in Waterloo, I can say there is a great buzz in the city (and region including Kitchener and Cambridge) that BlackBerry is alive and well!

jimpilot

There is no where to go but up with this OS. IOS and Android are at maturity and will only have small incramental upgrades. BB10 is just starting.

But yes please get them to US quickly.

SuperionMaximus

iPhone yes, it is likely to start declining in market share in the next couple years. Apple is in the same spot today that RIM was in in 2008 with BBOS. Nothing left to innovate. Apple literally can't change much or they risk losing their sole advantage - apps. If Apple went and made a 4.6" iPhone it would have no apps. That or they would have to keep the same resolution and aspect ratio they have now on the iPhone 5 and run into the iPad mini problem - no retina display. They have to tread carefully on hardware, which means they evolve more slowly.

Android doesn't really have those limitations and can iterate faster. The thing that they run into is fragmentation. Jellybean is still on less then 1 in 5 Android Phones over a year after launch.

BlackBerry, being the maker of both hardware and software can mitigate these problems better then Apple can and better then Google can.

But BlackBerry needs to get back into the consumer side of the services business. They need to replace BIS. They need a value proposition. Google has a million services and Gmail, Maps, Wallet, Google Drive ect keep people buying Android phones. Same with Apple, but to a lesser extent, Apple also relies in selling expensive proprietary hardware to keep people in the ecosystem, but iTunes and iCloud are consumer services that offer a unique value.

BIS was a unique service, now it's gone and there's really nothing in BB 10 that is even close to replacing it. Yeah, I can forward my BlackBerry.net email to my new phone through some janky service, but it's just not a BlackBerry. BBM is awesome, but it'll only keep people once the phones are in enough people's hands that everyone has a few friends and family that they can BBM with. In the mean time, in my opinion, BlackBerry needs to work on some first party answer to iCloud and maybe a new BlackBerry email address at least.

iskaheen

I agree with a BlackBerry email name. They have a worldwide network. Use it.

imcurved

Also the BlackBerry email address is free advertising for BlackBerry.
The more BlackBerry users use it, the more awareness to the mass.
8900_32GB_PB

21stNow

Jellybean has not been out for over a year. It was announced 6/27/12 and the rollout started 7/10/12, both of which were less than a year ago.

Raestloz

I don't think launch date would have much to do with Jellybean absorption. Unlike PCs which you can upgrade partially to run the newest OS, Android smartphones are usually made with "it can run this software, end of story" without much consideration for future updates. So, at the end of the day, most people can't install the new softwares, and they don't really have any reason to buy the new devices.
Sort of like BlackBerry Device Software 5.0 and BlackBerry 6

babacan

Nice piece, they doing many things right. I think the seeding of phones to media and others is going to be a huge boost to acceptance by the general public, it can only generate further awareness. While the US delay may impact sales over the short term it should keep BB at the top of everyone's mind and create greater traction as BB gets closer to their US introduction. Long BB

SuperionMaximus

I don't know, I think the delay in launch in the USA could really hurt BlackBerry as by the time the Z10 finally launches in the USA it will be competing for mind share with the next wave of Android Phones which will come packing 2013 cutting edge specs.

If the Z10 doesn't launch until the end of March it will have like 3 weeks before the Galaxy S IV gets announced.

The Q10 may not see the light of day in the USA until Q3. That will make people think that BlackBerry hasn't changed and BlackBerry still hasn't given anyone a reason why the Q10 launch has been pushed from Q1 to mid Q2 in select countries and late Q2 or Early Q3 in the USA.

Is it a hardware issue? A software issue? Is it lack of apps supporting it? We just don't know. But it is a missed promise and a sign that while things are changing, some things like hardware delays may never change.

BruvvaPete2

I don't believe anyone at Blackberry ever said Q10 would be released in any particular quarter. Thorsten said it would be released 'after' the Z10, but they would be announced at the same time.

sbndrf

"This is not the old RIM. This is the new BlackBerry."
Renaming as a new start. I guess the same will happen to the tablet line up currently knows as PlayBooks. Didn't RIM register a lot of BlackPad domains before the PlayBook launch?

mcstravi

Heard on an interview that they are 60% into their overall plan.
I see them licensing their OS to other hardware platforms.
I see them making $ of their Security.
i see them making $ of running BB10 in cars etc. and having other phones connecting.
They have BIG plans...the Z10 Q10 is just the introduction.
.
For the new phones..Apps are Coming (Expensify .. my favorite..was added yesterday)..The App developers may have sat on the fence gauging the initial reaction, but you can be guaranteed most of the top app developers are now full speed ahead to make it for the US launch..they don't want to left out....
In the recent JAM, they said Apps were coming in at over 1000 per day since the launch...that pace won't stay that high..but I'd say 100,000+ by US launch is more than likely...and probably more a the low end.

Rootbrian

OS being QNX, since blackberry 10 is an overlay user interface OVER the QNX UI.

axllebeer

* BlackBerry by choice *
Excellent real as always Chris.

Raizzt

Love reading your insights on the stock market and BBRY Chris. It always sheds some lights on what going on with the stock. I'm not a shareholder but like reading on the subject good or bad.

Thanks!

EchoTango

What a great overview by Chris on a very complex moving situation. Of course we've grown to expect that from him and he always delivers.

The only small point I would add is the morally questionable link between the negative press/media and the short-seller community.

Thanks Chris !

BrahSumatra

BlackBerry and Rim's biggest problem was the marketing, hopefully now they take a page out of Steve Jobs playbook learning how to do it right..

pmich

Always get excited for these articles Chris. Working in the financial district, it's a pleasure to read about two of my passions: finance and blackberries!

playpen007

The Motely Fool at it again: "I have read and watched reviews on the new Blackberry Z10 phone that’s supposed to save the company, and all I can say is I am not impressed. On one review, the casing for the phone actually came loose while taking it out of the box. In addition, the user interface was not as responsive as iOS or Android, and to be honest it offered nothing that either of the other two phones did not already have."

http://beta.fool.com/aleceiber/2013/02/07/analyzing-blackberry/23282/?ti...

nt300

The Motely Fool has always been anti-BlackBerry. Its very evident the reviewer was not being honest at all. The Z10 is super smooth and fast. iOS and Android don't stand a chance. They know it just don't want to admit it.

Kevin Michaluk

Contrary to Umi's take on it, I sort of liked the way BlackBerry staged out the press releases around the launch event.

The reason is simple.. .the media wasn't waiting until launch day to start talking about BlackBerry. Putting out data points early gave the press something to start talking about early. And doing some after the event kept the momentum going.

Plus, it gave us something to write about every day on the site! :)

technotrader

Its exciting to see BBRY get some mojo back. You have no doubt mentioned before the huge short interest in the stock - 135 mln at last count - and the shorts have to be nervous.

Another point worth mentioning is the loss of BIS revenue ever time a consumer BB10 phone replaces a consumer BB7 phone. I'm not sure what the exact fee is, but BBRY's average fee per phone per month is $4. The present value of $4 over a 24 - 36 month contract is $80 - $120 per pre-BB10 phone. So there is an loss of future revenue almost every time they sell a BB10 phone. That loss is likely close to the profit BBRY gets from a BB10 phone sale. Nobody is sure what the gross margin is on a BB10 phone, but if it runs in the 35% range, much of the profit is sucked out of the sale by the fee loss. Granted, revenue rec is different (BB10 profit when shipped, fees over time), but the economic loss has the clock ticking - and BBRY will have to sell a lot of phones to make up for a $2 bln loss in services revenue over time.

Am I missing something? BBRY is going to have to rock the MDM/MAM world with BES10 in order to make up the loss of BIS revenue. They do have some time...

Thunderbuck

The great thing here is that I think BB has a tremendous opportunity to become the dominant MDM platform, almost by default.

They've offered an easy migration for current BES customers and a nice, simple pricing model. Businesses, in turn, love the idea of not having to deploy/maintain a fleet of phones anymore if they don't want to.

Yes, many companies have already migrated to different MDM platforms, and many will just use plain vanilla Exchange ActiveSync, but there's still a VERY strong opportunity for BB here.

gallopiton

hello everyone... i am going to say something that i read in a post that even when it sounds crazy, every time it pops to my head i think, could be?... i read that the reason behind the us delay is, plain and simple, that the inventory wasn't big enough to supply all the markets at the same time... the final hardware was actually decided too late after tests and tests... so, bb thought that if they put some devices in every market would be very bad if the sales were good and then you are out of phones with people asking for them... they thought, since they had not much phones built, better to put them on sale in strong markets... they gave the final hardware late to the carriers for lab testing and now we are just waiting for the approval (which everyone thought that happened a while ago, maybe they changed something in the final hardware?)... meanwhile, bb is now building phones to attend the demand in all the markets trusting that the good reviews would be a lot more than the bad ones, and that would keep the interest high for the phones...

Thunderbuck

Part of the rationale behind the way rollouts are being staged probably DOES have something to do with supply, but maybe not the way you think.

It isn't so much a constraint as it is a desire to launch in smaller, friendly markets where there's a higher percentage of potential customers who would at least look at the Z10.

I don't think the delay in the US launch is so much due to carrier testing as it is an opportunity to firm up major app commitments, get the 10.1 update out, and build some positive buzz.

There were soooo many people who predicted BB's doom when they pushed the introduction back to this quarter, but to me they were managing the expectation, and the warm reception the Z10 is getting seems to validate the decision.

nt300

Good News for BlackBerry 10.

They need to get QNX in every single vehicle. And they need to get that interface where all you do is place your phone somewhere on the arm rest and both Z10 and the Cars QNX auto connect with each other.

BlackBerry and QNX is revolutionary and legendary. If and when people understand the true potential of BlackBerry 10, they will reap the competition. Apple and Google would be salavating for the opportunity to also have QNX while scraping iOS and Android.

newcollector

Wells Fargo upgraded BBRY this morning as well. The analyst wrote a balanced piece.

Check it out at www.streetinsider.com

GBpulsifer

BB10 is also good news for the Halifax region. Just announced an agreement with the government to continue it's investment in the area. They plan to have a BB10 center of excellence and employ up to 400.

Kornmatix

T-mobile hopes to be the first US carrier to launch the z10 in the US!

http://www.tmonews.com/2013/02/t-mobile-hopes-to-be-first-carrier-to-lau...

hope they get it earlier then the march 27th date that was leaked

BBVegasGirl80

+1,000,000! Yes, please! :-)

JakeTheCat

T-Mobile is not bogged down with iPhone inventory so of course they are excited about getting BB10. Sprint, on the other hand, has handcuffed themselves to Apple and as we have seen they are the carrier that has shown the least enthusiasm for BlackBerry. Sprint, with its deteriorating balance sheet and commitment of billions of dollars to Apple has opened itself up to being torpedoed by its competitors; all they have to do is pull the rug out from underneath Apple and Sprint is toast. Once Sprint's competitors clear out the iPhone 5s that have been selling slower than expectations... Sprint will be the only one committed to Apple - and in a big and risky way at that... Goodbye Sprint.

DJM626

I think Verizon is going to be the first carrier in the US that will launch the Z10. T-Mobile never gets any phone first. And I can only say that because I was a long standing customer with T-Mobile and I left specifically for that reason. It will definitely be Verizon or AT&T I would be totally blown away if T-Mobile got it before big red did. Can't see it happening

MoolahMitch

This is no longer true especially for BlackBerry devices as I got the 9900 on release date.

21stNow

T-Mobile got the Galaxy Note II first. I thought that they were the first US carrier with the BlackBerry Bold 9900/9930, but I could be wrong on that.

MikeLip

Go ahead - rub it in. Signed, an impatient US Z10 non-owner :)

jejohnston15

I picked up three Z10's on Tuesday gave one to my daughter who fell in love right away and has not picked up her iPhone since when she brought it to school all of her friends flipped out and from what I have heard from various parents they now want to have the blackberry's. I think by the time the US gets it it will have some momentum and will be common knowledge how cool it is and may result on some robust sales as well.

afwriter

Well, in my second-favorite role as armchair analyst -- I'm more concerned (not sure if that's the right word) as to what the stock needs to sit at six months for now. I honestly had it pegged to fall closer back to $12 at the beginning of the week (and I'm eating crow with ketchup on that one ...), but I thought the $22 goal that some analysts were touting at the beginning of the week is/was too high a valuation.

So, is $16-17 an adequate Goldilocks spot for the pre-US launch? Does BBRY have to hit $22 post US launch to be deemed successful? Shareholders will tend to be happy as long as the stock is some percentage higher from their buy-in point, but how much can someone reasonably expect if they bought in right now? I mean the folks that bought in at $12 just a short while ago can be ecstatic with a $25% rate of return. But that return is still pretty speculative.

Almost as much as anything is the sentiment on the street. Because for whatever reason, people who don't own the stock are influenced by the stocks movement -- mostly as some sort if indication as to whether or not they should by the phone itself. It's a chicken and egg process. If folks see the stock go up, they think the phone is good, then they buy the phone and the financials reflect an upward trend ... which makes the stock go up. However, it can work in reverse as well -- and that's what you have to look out for. If you're basing your analysis of the stock from the $12 point, things are looking good. If you're thinking that it should be at $22 sooner rather than later, you're kind of in flux. And if you're one of those folks looking at the stock's value from more than six months ago ... well, those numbers are going to be hopelessly lost for the foreseeable future.

And none of that has to do with the phone itself.

I'm curious to see how the phone's adoption correlates with the stock price in the next six months.

ElaineOklahoma

A point on the stock price that a lot of people seem to have missed is it was estimated a few weeks ago that as much as 25% of all outstanding stock was owned by would-be short sellers.

Nascar1449

I would have loved to see skype at the launch of the phone, but with the system being powered by QNX and the people at BlackBerry being hungry for the company to be the leader in the smart phone industry, I honestly can't see that the major players in the game not coming over to platform.

I encourage the team at BlackBerry to work harder, and don't let the company fall behind.

AGAIN!!!!!! lets see SKYPE!

blackberryto

"I don't know, I think the delay in launch in the USA could really hurt BlackBerry as by the time the Z10 finally launches in the USA it will be competing for mind share with the next wave of Android Phones which will come packing 2013 cutting edge specs. If the Z10 doesn't launch until the end of March it will have like 3 weeks before the Galaxy S IV gets announced. The Q10 may not see the light of day in the USA until Q3. That will make people think that BlackBerry hasn't changed and BlackBerry still hasn't given anyone a reason why the Q10 launch has been pushed from Q1 to mid Q2 in select countries and late Q2 or Early Q3 in the USA. Is it a hardware issue? A software issue? Is it lack of apps supporting it? We just don't know. But it is a missed promise and a sign that while things are changing, some things like hardware delays may never change."

In regards to the above post, I think the point which gets glossed over by analysts that make this point is that we can pretty much be assured of the fact that we get a higher specced BB10 all touch device before the year is out. So to look at the Z10 and thing it is the end as opposed to the beginning is a big mistake. Just read the following quote from Andrew McLeod, BB's managing director of Canada: Mr. MacLeod said “there’s a robust roadmap” of devices to come over the next year: They will be aimed at people who want devices in different shapes and sizes, and at the big emerging markets, such as Nigeria and Indonesia, where BlackBerry is still a strong brand. Whether you want a smaller screen, a bigger screen – whether you want a hybrid between a smartphone or a tablet – I think what’s important is we now have a platform that can support all of those different preferences,” he said. “We will listen to the market and given them what they desire and want.”

Nick Shadow

afwriter.

The stock is consolidating in the $16.50 range, and I think the support is reasonable. It has major resistance at $18.40 or there about. If it breaks through that I expect an addition 6 to 8%. If it turns away from that, I think back to at least the $16.50.

Someone pointed out the huge short interest, I think it is actually (or was) a bit higher than that. If it gets a strong run up, it could start a "short squeeze" rally, which the longs have been predicting (hoping for) for about a year. That could really light it up, or happen gradually and push the stock, who knows, depends on who gets out, how fast and how big the positions.

Hope this helps. Please remember though it is not for the faint of heart, it has always been subject to big swings, it is a trader's stock, so that means a bumpy ride. Lastly, NEWS TRUMPS ALL. It really reacts to it.

This is by no means a recommendation to buy, sell, or rent.

Oldpeddler

You are absolutely right ... News does trump all. A pure traders stock. One piece of really good news, such as bumping up the US release date ... OR ... a piece of really bad news, such as failing a carriers testing criteria or another having another delay will take it up or down real fast.

I would love to know if the huge short position is still in play after all the high volume trading over the past few weeks. If used to be 1 in 5 stocks was being shorted.

JakeTheCat

"When iOS launched it had zero apps. When Android launched I don't know how many apps it had, but it wasn't 70,000."

It looks like Android had about 2,300 apps at the launch of the HTC Dream. (Or at least within months of the launch.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Android_Market
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTC_Dream

21stNow

I don't think that the launch of BB 10 should be compared with the initial launches of iOS or Android. Even though BB 10 is a "new" OS, it is coming from a company that has been in this exact line of business since the late 90s. Apple and Google were new to the smartphone business with the initial launches of iOS and Android.

And, smartphones were not as mainstream in 2007 and 2008 as they are in 2013, when we are breaking the halfway point with smartphone adoption among US cellular phone users. Of course developers are more willing to jump on board now. The ability to be successful in app development has been proven time and time again.

At best, you could compare the BB 10 launch with the launch of iOS and Android on tablets, but I think that even that would be a bad comparison.

JakeTheCat

I don't think your objection holds water. Apple has been making operating systems since before BlackBerry was born. They launched the original iPhone operating system with zero "apps". Same story with Microsoft and yet BB10 has more apps than the recent Windows phone launch.

Nobody cares about your history, they care about what you can do for them today and in the future. BlackBerry has made a strong statement that when it comes to apps they are delivering now and they have a very bright future ahead. I'm not saying they deserve a pat on the back for that, just noting that they have sat down at the table with a larger stack of chips than anyone else before.

mingus007

Umi makes this stuff easily digestible for the less financially fluent among us. Thank you for taking the time and putting things into context, sir! That said...

I now have MUCH more empathy for our neighbors to the north now that I know what feeling like the estranged cousin is like (e.g. not having the Zed-10 in our clutches).

It will eventually get here. It will be refined further based on brave end user/early adopter inputs from the UK and Canada. It will surprise the doubters with its organic growth (hopefully magnified by a surgical marketing campaign). It will hopefully bring a lot of the financial and fanboi skreed to a halt as people get to know the one device that's doing things that its customers want (rather than the other way around). Is it perfect? Nothing is. (But seriously... Get that notification sound/light thing straight before you throw it out in the states. PLEASE. For all the Fruit Zombies I've dealt with, all marveled at how I knew when I had to, or didn't have to look at the phone based on buzz/light patterns and color. It really is one of those quintessential BB features.) /EndSoapbox

andy957

Good article, thanks Chris.

(N.B. 'who's' in the intro paragraph should be 'whose' ;) )

Steelerstitch

How can they expect to get their market share back when they don't even release in the US on time. I am pissed at their pathetic efforts this is how repay us keeping the faith. I just watched Cold light of day. Bruce Willis throws a BlackBerry into the ocean. It was very therapeutic.

aornoe785

Oh, suck it up and quit whining. Someday the States is going to have to come to terms with the fact that it isn't the centre of the universe.

Also, maybe stop blaming the manufacturer - who clearly has no release issues at this point - and start thinking that your CARRIER might be the problem.

Wah, wah, wah.

Steelerstitch

It is Blackberries fault not the carrier. They know what to expect from US carrier testing. This was a calculated move and a bad one. And Canada is like a shitty loft apartment over a really great party so kiss my ass.

You are going to see poor sales in the US among new buyers because they are releasing it around the same time as the Galaxy S4 which has a faster processor and more Ram. If Blackberry wanted to fail they are doing a great job. If they had released here on Time they would have had a full 6 to 8 weeks to push it before Samsung released its new Blackberry Killer.

aornoe785

Suck a Canadian dick, dipshit.

Peace.

Steelerstitch

LMFAO Really? That is the best you could do? I refuse to insult you back you are to stupid to understand it any way and I don't have time to argue with Mental Defectives.

ricky124

Way to keep it positive. I live in the U.S. and it sucks that I can't go to the store and at least check one out. I've been waiting for so long. I just want a new phone, fairly soon, it may not matter which phone it is, something nice however :)

Steelerstitch

I am trying to wait for bb10 but my patience is pretty thin after all the delays. Besides the Galaxy S4 is unveiled mid March and goes on sale shortly after. It will probably beat bb10 to market in the US. Notice there is no firm date in March for the Z10? And the Z10's specs are only as good as the S3. The S4 is going to destroy any hope for new users buying the Z10. The only thing that keeps me leaning towards bb is my playbook and the bridge app. As far as New users picking one up they have killed any hope of that with the latest delay. As usual bb is a day late and a dollar short.

CarBob

Chris - As usual, excellent article.

HOW SWEET IT IS !!!

BLACKBERRY FOREVER !!

TDSWIM

So BlackBerry is dumping BIS? Does that mean that for consumer users our internet communications will no longer be encrypted and flow through the BB servers? When logging into Facebook, for example, on a BB7 device, it says you logged in from Waterloo, Canada.

What is the practical change that will happen here?

xBURK

Well, I just want to mention something about the reviews I've been reading on the Web regarding the Z10. First of all, I'm neither a smart nor tech savvy guy. I was worried after reading so many reviews stating that the Z10 will have too much of a learning curve for people to take interest in this phone. I chose to ignore these comments. I've had the phone for less than 24hrs now. To say the least, thank God I did. Yes, there is learning curve. Why wouldn't there be? It's not only a new phone, but a new operating system. I can honestly say that I'm flying through everything and loving the crap out of this phone. Way beyond my expectations!

Jordan Gibson1

if I could get a job for Blackberry and help i totally would... blackberry by choice!

merv69

As of today stocks were at 16.00, just saying... P

houseane

I haven't read all the comments so don't know if anyone pointed this out. In my opinion, the stock price had nothing to do with anything BlackBerry did or didn't do. The price dropped because of those that thought they can make money on the stock by buying it before the launch and selling it on launch day. There simply were many more selling at the point when Thor reveled the phones than were buying. They likely set their system to sell at that point with no limit and the few who bought made low offers. Those that bought at that point were the smart ones.

darcy d

I've been waiting sense Tuesday to trade my iPhone 4S for the new Blackberry z10 with Telus ! I still don't have one did Blackberry not make enough or did they give to dam many out at launches my store said I'm next on list that's three days ago now starting to get angry may have to bust the iPhone before I decide to not upgrade you should not have to wait this amount of time so what if its only a small town here we still should be able to get the new Blackberry only 10 min off the 401 :(

nabil114

http://crackberry.com/blackberry-10-devices-will-not-make-their-way-japan

I think the Chris is too bullish on the Blackberry. The article proves my point.

- Rezaur Rahman

Pdoody

Does anyone have access to real data on who is buying the BB10s? I have asked 5 retailers and they have all said it's half iPhone customers. This is huge info if someone has real numbers. All analyst estimates seem to assume only 1 of 15 BB users will upgrade and nobody else.

world traveler and former ceo

If Apples earlier success was "all about the user experience", as many have claimed, BlackBerry is set for a meteoric rise.

Jimcmf

EVERYONE BUY BBRY - It's time to move this baby up !!!

Steelerstitch

That's not going to happen. My friends have switched already. One had a curve and he beat that thing to death. He beat it to death and then AT&T took over Alltel and he got a 9800 which he used until Blackberry's latest delay. He now has a Note 2. My other friend is on Sprint and switched the same day to an S3. People are getting tired of waiting. And new customers forget it, they will be few and far between.

y.gh

My sources at Vodafone Ghana tells me the phone will be launched in Ghana next week at GHS 1999 that's about $1000. Huh! Samsung Galaxy SIII is sold for GHC 1150 ($575), galaxy note to 2 is GHC 1450 (725) and BBZ10 for almost $1000? I waited this long only to be disappointed.

Steelerstitch

Samsung's New Galaxy S4 is supposed to unveil mid March. The S3 is on sale 99.00 threw Verizon and sprint here. AT&T is still reaming people for it at 199.00

Thomas Smith2

Look the share price will look after it's self .I brought my z10 on the bus trip to the football (soccer in the us) traveling from Glasgow to Inverness to see my beloved Celtic FC on Saturday. For the 6 hour return journey I seldom had it in my hand as my fellow Celtic fans passed it about in jaw drop amazement. These guys are hard core iPhone 5 & galaxy users they thought it was really something new. It must have been going on 10 times I herd those words, "I'm getting one of them it's shit hot". Folks that says it all its a winner. Well among Celtic fans anyway.
Just one last thing please hurry Blackberry with the Sky sports app.

Rootbrian

True to the facts chris!