Scotiabank sees a sale or partnership as more likely than BlackBerry going private

By Chris Umiastowski on 12 Aug 2013 10:11 pm EDT

Today I had a read through a report from Gus Papageorgiou from Scotiabank. On the back of the announcement of a special committee to explore strategic alternatives, he raised his target price on the stock. His new target is $14.20, up from $12.50 previously.

In his report, he comments on the higher probability of a sale of the company or a strategic partnership versus a going private transaction. Hislogic is that if the goal is to accelerate BlackBerry 10 to market, as the board of directors has stated, then a going private transaction probably wouldn’t be the best way to accomplish “scaling the assets”, as Papageorgiou puts it.

He sees the most valuable assets of BlackBerry as being the NOC (because it’s connected directly to over 600 carrier networks), the BES server installed base (over 200,000 of them) and QNX (which powers 60% of shipped automobiles today, and is the heart of BlackBerry 10). He makes what I think is a good argument for the potential to sell to, or partner with, companies who have interests in machine to machine (M2M) computing such as Ericsson, IBM, Cisco, or Qualcomm, each of whom he points out are looking to capitalize on the M2M trend. BlackBerry’s NOC and QNX assets certainly could be useful here.

As one example of how BlackBerry could monetize QNX and the NOC, he paints a scenario where the company powers the delivery of software update to cars. With an estimated 35 million cars having embedded wireless in them by 2018, charging $15 to deliver a software update could bring in $525 million per upgrade. As he points out, the network would not be limited to the automotive market. For example, he sees the opportunity of maintaining iOS and Android devices in the enterprise as an additional $1.6 billion revenue possibility.

Many analysts, including Papageorgiou, now seem to support the idea that hardware is of secondary importance to BlackBerry. I’m starting to agree with this, with the added point that some close partner still needs to make the hardware, and there has to be a way for such a partner to make money from it. If BlackBerry can’t profit from hardware why will a buyer of this business?  

As for valuation, Papageorgiou values BlackBerry’s cash and patents at $10.16 per share. He pegs the enterprise business as being worth another $3.21, giving him the $14.20 target price.

Despite the stock rising more than 10% today, everyone realizes this is due to the increased probability of a take out. It has nothing to do with short term results. We won’t see the next set of numbers until September 27th, at which time we should also have some early evidence on the potential success of cross-platform BBM.

Topics: BBRY Editorial

Reader comments

Scotiabank sees a sale or partnership as more likely than BlackBerry going private


I really hope they can get some kind of good partnership versus another company buying it and selling off its assets.

The Canadian government should really step in and protect it from being bought buy a foreign company and not loose another great Canadian company and its intellectual property like what happened with Nortel Networks!!!

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I think Prem watsa , CPPIB , Teachers PP and other canadian equity firms should come to a deal and help Blackberry get privatized.

Canadian Government wouldnt step in as it stands now, because for some odd reasons current government is focused on foreign investment. i.e, they are letting in Verizon to bid for Wind Mobile while restricting Bell, Rogers & Telus. This kind of investment would never create any benefit for consumers as government claims.

Canada should change its regulations over competitions, if you look at one of the another Canadian Gem, Interac, they are still not for profit company while master card and visa charge Canadians lots of money. Canada should allow interac to function on its on as a profit company so they can innovate and reduce the transaction fees in canada and elsewhere.

The Cdn government is pushing for foreign investment because the small players going at it alone has proven to be difficult in this market and they did not foresee Robelus using their "discount" subsidiaries (Fido/Catr,Virgin/Solo,Koodo) with the parent's financial resources to "compete" with the new entrants to push them out. Canada needs a fourth national carrier to compete and incite more competition. As we can see Robelus is very afraid of Verizon potentially coming to Canada via Wind/Mobilicity and it's very hyprocritical of them putting out propoganda saying it's not fair for Canada with the "loopholes" in place and the jobs that would be lost. I would agree if it werent for the fact that Robelus had similar origins (even getting free spectrum) and that they are offshoring many jobs already themselves.

Funny how everyone wants competition on the carrier side but only Apple and Android on the device side. Guess we will just have to accept what the iphone has to offer going forward.

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!


If BB decides selling is the best option, then blocking the sale could lead to the company going under eventually. I doubt there are really any Canadian companies looking to buy BB

I'm a firm believer in a partnership. They must mention a sale to "keep all options open" but I don't believe it's why they care striving for.

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I think it would be a partnership as well and thats what I would like to see, as a share holder. However, I'm concerned about the move by Prem Watsa.

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I am in agreement with you on that. BlackBerry needs some kind of partnership. The question is whether or not BB10 will survive. I would hate to see that OS discontinued.

Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10

Agreed a take over would cannibalize the company for "useful parts", if that happens might as well throw away our phones :( A partnership is way better...:)

I'd prefer to see them enter a joint partnership with Sony instead of seeing the company get torn apart and sold off piece by piece.

I agree with you 100%. I know that both parties could benefit by forming a partnership, similar to Microsoft and Nokia except better.

Agree, Sony devices are also high priced, and some reviews I've read, not too great, but together, who knows. Still think IBM, maybe even Cisco would be a great partner/merge [IB10 ?]. Really, who knows, have to agree with other comments though, don't want to have to give up my Blackberries due to them being divided up like some cheap pie either, or sold out, been with them a long, long time and want that to continue. BB works very well for us here, and BB builds a quality device, and we want that to continue, with a BB OS, not androided or some other limited OS. This company has got to keep moving.

Yes, agree, a BB Sony combo would likely not work out well, but IBM, and Cisco, even Red Hat are all over the "internet of things", thus BB would be a perfect fit for them.

This is my thought.

Blackberry has what they need (BB 10 is solid), anyone can source the parts to make a decent device. The only thing Apple and Samsung have going for them is purchasing scale.

Blackberry needs to pull together various vendors that are being impacted by mobile. Nintendo, a camera company, etc. Do the same thing Google did. Release QNX for almost nothing but keep it like Microsoft so the core cannot be changed (to maintain security) But form your core "team" so that each can benefit from mobile market that Apple and Android is taking over.

Nintendo / Sony - an exclusive way to extend into mobile
Camera company - stunt the bleeding of their point and shoot market.
PC Vendors - being shut out of the mobile market

Each has to kick in a membership fee and share some property for the device(s) made.

This is similar to what Google is doing but it's only working for Samsung. HTC is getting pounded, LG is seeing quality devices ignored etc. The difference is each member can now collectively help the platform actually compete and be different. They can still be open to Apple, Google, Microsoft use their services but this new platform will get priority.

Anyways - my crazy thoughts. There's nothing wrong with partnerships. People act like Blackberry is going to shut down next week.

I agree, I don't wanna see BlackBerry sliced up and sold by assets. I'd rather them partner up with a well known hardware company that could cover the distribution of BlackBerry 10 phones as well as push BB10/QNX out into the market.

If SONY has the interest so be it but there are a numbe of companies that have potential.

Posted via CB10 using a Z10

That's ultimately how this is going to turn out. The sum of the parts is more valuable than the whole. Slice Em up and rack Em out

Posted via CB10 from BB Z10

I wouldn't worry too much, this scenario is not likely. More than likely, I piece of it will be sold (HW division) or the company will go private.

This must be the best option. With BlackBerry on software side and Sony hardware ranges, they can bring in great devices and ecosystem.

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Agreed. Imagine bb10 on a waterproof xperia right now. That would be a pretty compelling competitive offering.

Posted from my incredible Z10

I don't understand, how can a sale if the company yelp accelerate BlackBerry 10? Wouldn't a partnership be better option?

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I would love to see BlackBerry partner up with Sony. Just imagine having a complete household ecosystem running bb10, in terms of having your computer, consol, television, and smartphone all powered by one unifying being.. this being all Sony devices powered by BlackBerry

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You guys are delusional. Why would Sony use BB in their phones when they are getting android(with all the apps) for free?

Sony is already in tough position which they are slowly turning it around. They wouldn't something stupid and go with BB which will only distract their efforts with Xperia lineup.

The uneducated consumer walks into Bell,Rogers etc and hands them a "free phone" that plays games and off they go! The carrier just wants the contract! Voila, massive cheap android devices. The media says BlackBerry sucks and voila, they put up with their laggy phone.

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!

They also saw my bank account growing by $2000 by the end of July... they were wrong :/

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Only time will tell. I just hope when the dust settles we still have Blackberry devices so I can get my stuff done efficiently. I've been with blackberry since the RIM950 on Bellsouth (Cingular) and I don't wanna change!

I still think they're not doing enough to get BBOS users on to BB10. They haven't tried very hard, so of course there are still 10s of millions of BBOS users that haven't switched to BB10. I think before they try to do a partnership or an outright sale of the company, they should try to get the BB10 user numbers up. Windows Phone is doing GREAT with the Lumia 520... it's time for BlackBerry to put out their powerful yet low-priced device and get into the "at this price, you can't lose!" market.

Windows might be doing "great" but Nokia is still losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter.

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Exactly: the software company (Microsoft) is getting traction even though the device manufacturer (Nokia) is not... but in BlackBerry's case, the one offsets the other... the gains in BB10 market share offsets the hardware subsidy, hopefully. Another argument for not becoming a software-only or hardware-only company as Microsoft and Nokia are: what good is it to Microsoft is Nokia doesn't succeed but Microsoft does? It just means that other hardware vendors like Samsung or HTC are likely to put out low-cost WP devices, further eroding Nokia's position, while Microsoft's gets stronger.

I agree. I am struggling with a 3yr old torch and like most of my friends would love to upgrade to BB10 but the cost of the handsets from carriers in the Caribbean is ridiculous. (carrier locked contract Q10 for the equivalent of $800US). If there was some sort of financial incentive, the numbers of upgrades would be fantastic.

Of the many BBOS subscribers, how many did you realistically expect to switch in the first six months of BB10 (which did not include the "all important" back to school and holiday season)? I guess we're going with the assumption that most subscribers are not on long term contracts and are technofiles who upgrade every year?

I'm not sure your question can be answered without an 'essay': the 70 million BBOS users are scattered all over the world with different carriers and contract durations and so on. Just playing probabilities, in the 6 months that BB10 devices have been available in many regions, 1/4 of the people on 2 year contracts would have been up for renewal. That's 15 million users. No, if they bring home $20 per day and the device is $800 they're not going to upgrade, but if it's $250 off contract and $0 on a non-platinum-tier contract, they might. There aren't 15 million BB10 users yet, are there? I think that there are probably 6 million, worldwide, and over 50% of those came from non BBOS.

I agree. With no debt what is the point of selling? As long as they can pay the bills why not stick it out? Rome wasn't built in a day, and they need to give BB10 a fair shot before killing it. They owe us customers that much.

BlackBerry Z10 | Verizon |

If only the advertising was better. Even Apple has some great commercials these days. Steal those guys who are in charge of getting the companies that created those commercials... at any cost.

Really? I See those A____le commercials and all I can think of is "So??!! Other phones can't take great pictures or play music??" They don't have a competitive edge there any more. Everybody can do what they do and better. So they are left telling you that lots of other sheeple use you should use it too. Weak.

From my sweet BB10 Neutrino powered Z10 :D

The issue is consumers are not thinking that about Blackberry. They still think of what the devices were like in 2006.

Marketing needs to focus on improving that. Perhaps show how the device has evolved and tie it to people being connected and productivity.

Apple's latest ad campaign is horrible, actually. Whoever thought 'designed in California' wouldn't open them up to 'manufactured in China for 30 cents per hour' snark should be fired. Right now, Apple doesn't need to market; the carriers are doing all the marketing for them, and they can ride the wave of past success. They're in a most enviable position, much like Nike or Star*ucks or, the McCoy to Apple's Hatfield, Samsung.

That said, bad marketing may be better than no marketing at all. I'm really quite disgusted that BlackBerry apparently had no stomach to go into the market guns blazing. BB10 is a great product being done in by its own maker.

I'll stay until the bitter end, though. Wish BBRIM would reciprocate that loyalty.

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Keep in mind the carriers have sales commitments to Apple so yes they NEED to push iPhone.

Sprint is on the hook for something like 10 million iPhone

Disagree. I think going private is more likely. Furthermore, evidence such as reports about Prem Watsa mulling the idea + him leaving the board are more indicative of the company going private rather than being absorbed by a larger company.

Furthermore, Papageorgiou has been consistently wrong about Blackberry. His predictions for unit sales + margins were WAY off (see CNBC, June 27th). So, I don't put much credence in his opinions.

Thor mentioned two things in the last earnings call - "We can do it ourselves" and "We are looking for partners to scale the deployment of BB10" (or something to that effect). Hence it can be going private and also partnering with someone to manufacture the phones.

I guess getting Timothy Dattels from a Private Equity firm to join the board last year was preparing for this day.

Exactly. The hints at their plan are all there. To anyone thinking Blackberry doesn't already have a plan are crazy. They hired JMP awhile ago and Perifax leaving the board is a big sign of what is in motion.

Yes amazing people actually believe they don't have a plan. I believe they are currently more focused on renewing government, institution and corporate sectors than they are the consumer side. Eventually BB10 will spill over to the consumer side as you bring your corporate phone home with BB10 balance! Going private and working this sector hard is the key to serious profits and if they can profit for a better consumer experience so be it. Else go it alone. As long as they are kicking, my company and its employees love the z10 and bb10.

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!

Agree, this is why going private makes sense, so that everyone shuts their yap about not selling enough phones to consumers.

I agree, I think it will take people using it in the corporate world to see how great a phone it is
That's how it started in the beginning, I do believe.

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Good read. Although it would be silly for BlackBerry to not build it's own hardware as it does now. That part should not change. Otherwise, partnering or other strategies are always possible and could be lucrative. Leave the hardware part as it is and keep making great smartphones as that will pay off in the long haul, allow the other growth opportunities make the money.

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The rumors of possibly going private or any other strategic alternative would explain Watsa's resignation mainly due to potential conflicts of interest if he wanted to increase his stake further. He would be limited to do it before because of insider trading rules.

They'll get out of the handset business me thinks. The assets listed in the post, plus bb10 as an additional one, they don't *need* handsets. Bring back a QNX desktop distribution, but the BlackBerry experience into as many form factors as possible (yeah, Sony could help here).

Now, how can BlackBerry drum up some interest in others making handsets that run bb10?

Start writing device drivers for other handsets and get a prototype, say an S4 or something, running? Show how easy it is?

I agree with this. It makes total sense. In fact I really think it would be win, win if Samsung bought BlackBerry and finally had their own OS instead of relying on Google and Microsoft.

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That'd be a shame. I love BB10 and would like to stick with it forever, but after my Nexus S and Galaxy Nexus, I'm never buying another Samsung phone. Too many serious hardware glitches, and a very noticeable difference in quality between individual devices, especially with the AMOLED screens.

I don't know why it takes an analyst to come up with great ideas like generating revenue opportunity by approaching the automotive industry or opening up BES, in order to support Android and Apple for corporate communication (although I thought BES10 could manage all platforms from an administrative aspect already) .

These are basic revenue generators that just needs some good sales guys/gals to go out and seal the deal.

Posted via CB10 using a Z10

Because the leadership at BBRY is a bunch of fucking amateurs. Like the Board.

Somehow this 'latest' strategic thrust is going to rejuvenate the company? After a series of missteps (by this EXACT same Board!) steered this company into iceberg after iceberg?

The announcements today by BBRY and Mr. Musk basically sum up where BBRY is right now. And the response of this forum. Hey fanbois ... here is a couple tidbits you would realize of you read a newspaper:

BB10 is unavailable in Japan as the Japanese market is not a consideration for BBRY. This is the nation that Sony is headquartered. There is little likelihood that Sony will rescue your beloved BBRY.

Samsung could purchase BBRY, yes. Why? Or more importantly... why now? BBRY would be cheap right now yes... they will be even cheaper in December 2013, and cheaper still in March 2014.

If I was a decision maker (not for BBRY of course I would have left last summer when Thor announced BB10 was not ready... fuck... the writing was really on the wall then) I would quietly buy up shares so I could get at that cash balance/user subscription base... and then convert all you ducks to my own OS. Google could do that. Samsung. Huawei, Apple of course.

BBRY and it's awesome OS are headed for the history books and case studies at MBA schools. It's over.

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I agree. The people that created the mess have been entrusted to clean it up. Show Heins & Co. and Stymiest and Co the door.

Why would we believe this ANALyst? This guy had an estimate of .72 cents eps for last quarter. Just another clueless pumper.

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I hope they don't do something really drastic. Just put more money into advertising. I was talking to someone today who didn't even know BlackBerry had phones with front facing cameras. I love my Z10, and people getting increasingly bored with iPhone but don't want to do something drastic like WP8 would be a perfect fit for BB10, if they knew it existed.

BlackBerry Z10 | Verizon |

If there were a Sony & BlackBerry partnership that would potentially see James Bond using a BlackBerry device thanks to Sony's strong product placement.
This would be a good thing.

Call me an optimist, but I think we are going to hear some good news from this. I feel the company has created value with their new technology. In my opinion, Thorsten and team have done a great job managing BlackBerry. With their new compelling technologies on the horizon, let us hope they create a joint venture or partnership to keep BlackBerry moving.

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If the results in September aren't nice, I think the combined pressure of QE taper will put a hurting on the short term stock price. If anyone is long and has a basis of $15 or under I think everything is going to be just fine.

I think a partnership/JV would be good for BBRY. I think a sale to a strategic buyer is more likely than a PE shop, or consortium of shops.

In any case, it's better for investors for a deal to get started now rather than later when the company could at some point burn through all that cash.

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Sounds to me like more compromises. Thing I liked about BlackBerry was the way they designed the hardware and the software to work together in a very unique way. Don't think you'll get that if the hardware is made by someone else. Q10. Is à wonderful,quality device and a big improvement on my 9800.

Blackberry is the biggest loser and self destroyer of its own value. What takes them so long to get BBM cross platform? This is like forever. It gave Watsapp chance to launch their voice services. Blackberry sucks big time in their product launch strategy. They are always 1-2 years behind the competition. That is the main reason it has to sell itself. Who will pay more than $15 for this dying company? Its a DO OR DIE Blackberry needs to open everything to Android and IOS like BBM voice, BBM screen share etc to have decent no of users use BBM. APPS APPS APPS BB 10 is a dead OS now and no one would want to buy BB10 phones without MUST HAVE APPS!

If QNX so successful how was it even possible that blackberry bought it for 400M? Where is the QNX revenue breakdown in ER call? Oh wait maybe because they haven't made a cent with this purchase.

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That's what I've always wondered. People keep going on about how amazing QNX is, well why was it no one else bought them? QNX has been around for a very long time, yet no one was interesting in buying them until BlackBerry came around and bought the the company for a very affordable price.

It makes no sense. If QNX is such a great company, powering so many automobiles, why is It that Google or Apple didn't buy them? It's not like they had never heard of QNX, heck I knew what QNX was back before BlackBerry existed.

Typed on my Dev Alpha C, Posted Via CB10

Because BBRY was Resarch In Motion. And that QNX did need so work to get in to those days!
Blackberry took its opportunity, but didn't "transform the try" and was to slow working on it.
Hence a late BB10 launch, dead Playbook...
QNX indeed have a good potential, and imho would not match the Android spirit if you want it still clean enough after the works done...
Android sort of linux based OS and Apple IOS then there was a chance to pick there and BBRY was there.

The best thing they can do in the short term is to remove the duplicitous. CEO and get someone with a true vision for the tech Co. He will be gone in 6 months.

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There would be a surprisingly good outcome out of this, this icon who created a whole industry is in this position because let's face it Canada is a small country. If this is an American company things will not go this way. But I can assure you this company will come out stronger, the gang up of the apps industry will fail.

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This from th bank that keeps telling us we're richer than we think? I wish.

My none question is I keep hearing about qnx powered cars. 60% of cars sold today? Really? Where are these cars? Why don't I see more interconnectivity with more cars. If qnx powers so many cars, how can BlackBerry be losing so badly then?

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It's the system within the car! Every car today has some form of computerization. QNX is the internal platform that you don't see and it is very stable and efficient. If it wasn't, you would be having a lot of issues. Kinda like we do with Windows all the time! Just bought a new Windows 8 computer due to a hardrive failure. Guess what? Window 8 totally is a joke! It's the worse attempt possible to be user friendly and it's like a toy! What a complete flop!

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!

BlackBerry Z30 is a tool for me to connect to my clients and partner. Evenly it a my close friend

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BlackBerry bulls totally underestimated how much the deck is stacked against them, and over estimated how much carrier support they would receive. Anyone that believed they would throw their weight behind BlackBerry vs. Microsoft or to weaken the Apple, Samsung stranglehold missed the boat, carriers sell what's hot, they live and die from quarter to quarter and BlackBerry's sales and marketing efforts failed to produce the desired results. To their credit in the last year they delivered an amazing new OS, increased their cash position, introduced new hardware, Z10 is the best device I have ever owned, developed BES 10, MDM solutions, OTA updates for automotive, BBM about to go cross platform and BBM Channels. Despite the tremendous progress, superb technology, iconic global brand the general public is clueless. They think BlackBerry is dead, as do some of you and most of the talking heads. BlackBerry is vital, they have great strategic assets, software and services, but they don't have the resources to fight the app wars against the well endowed tech titans. I think it is wise to pursue a transaction sooner rather than later before they burn the cash. A big boy partner or partners with manufacturing and marketing prowess will give them the scale to develop the ecosystem and capitalize on the many revenue opportunities they have identified. Public or private I wish them success in all their endeavors.

BINGO! The consumer is clueless! The z10 destroys the iphone bar none! BlackBerry will retreat and survive in the corporate and government sectors. People will be given new bb10 devices in these areas and they will love them. This is how BB10 will survive and grow into the consumer market but it will take a few more years.

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!

Remember sony Ericsson now us just Sony! Sony ate Ericsson the same could be if BlackBerry associate with Sony (tremendous cia)

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blackberry's playing a poker game with a full house.. but blackberry doesn't know how to arrange the cards.. so now they're asking for help.. hopefully they ask the right person

Seems to me I have seen this before. Palm Inc. I am not an investor so when I read articles like these I am thinking in a different mind set. To an investor a sale can mean big money just look at when Hp Bought Palm it's stock jumped 26%. However as a user this is not good news. If I am looking to sell a company and get money for the investors then the users are just life blood to keep me alive until the deal is done. I can't see a company buying Blackberry and saying I am sure glad I got this hardware. I see it more like we got QNX ,BBM, and BES so when an upgrade is available we can switch you to IOS or Android and keep doing business. Sadly this could very well be the Death Rattle. Many will think partnership but in most cases those end with one part absorbing the other. It may be good news for Investors but for End Users I don't think this is good news.

Palm is a bad comparison. BlackBerry is a lot further into its transition, more diverse and in a financial superior position than Palm ever was then.

Time to re-fuel, re-arm, and re acquaint the world with the new BlackBerry. As a m2m juggernaut

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That's the Spirit!

BlackBerry will survive in the Corporate and Government Sectors! My Z10 is so much better than an iphone!

Once you are private you can do what you want less break the law!

BlackBerry will survive in the Corporate and Government Sectors! My Z10 is so much better than an iphone!

Sony is a pure consumer play, full stop. They may license BB10 for their devices but they are not going to invest heavily going down the enterprise route.

Blackberry provides little juice for consumer focused firms and Sony does little to improve BB enterprise standing. In fact Sony could hurt BB brand in the enterprise space.

The PS4 OS is done so QNX on a Playstation is not likely target and would financially irresponsible to consider.

MSFT, Amazon, Google, Samsung (bc of their recent push to be enterprise friendly) and Apple (for patents and BES 10) would be better partners, buyers etc.

Apple is more of tongue in cheek idea bc Apple doesn't need to buy BB unless they feel BES 10 is an opportunity which is unlikely.

I think Sony may be interested in Enterprise. It would be no different than Samsung trying to come with their Knox software. BlackBerry would get Sony further ahead of the competition in this space and it would help Sony diversify outside of consumer electronics.

The problem is BB needs someone more powerful and influential than they are with great market share or market clout. Sony has these attributes but in video games, TVs and not phones & biz class services. It would be combining two weaker phone players not ideal.

Sony's marketshare in the smartphone space is negligible vs Samsung. Their TV biz is getting slammed and they are hoping the PS4 sets all kinds of records.

They offer nothing in the enterprise space that BB didn't already have and they run businesses which inhale cash and are often mentioned at investor meetings in a negative light (as in why don't you sell that division).

Amazon, Samsung, MSFT, Google, Yahoo or Apple are the only firms that have the cash, clout and apart from Yahoo (who could still face plan into oblivion & really has no use for BB) have the staying power BB needs in the mobile space.

Amazon makes the most sense because they can use QNX for a variety of purposes, they could create a BB tablet tomorrow and a cooler BB phone (both with the best KIndle experience on the market) they have an app ecosystem and could fund the porting of Android apps to BB10 by the 1000s, did I mention lots of cash/equity, enterprise clients, massive data center, etc.

Sony is a retail consumer brand and in the android phone space = fourth or fifth fiddle behind Samsung, HTC,Motorola, LG here in the US (which is a make or break market for all smartphone companies - ask Nokia).

BlackBerry needs a partnership to realize economies of size in key areas. These are hardware, software, and marketing reach. But really it's key strength will be innovation. The smartphone market is peaking in growth. If Heins' vision is correct that the computer is now in our hands he needs the science and the investment resources to do it and do it quickly. This latter quality has been BlackBerry 's biggest downfall.

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Great report. To be a true blue blackberry fan is to be willing to part with its hardware. To be a true blue father is to be willing to part with his grown up daughter.

Great report. To be a true blue blackberry fan is to be willing to part with its hardware. To be a true blue father is to be willing to part with his grown up daughter.

I am at that point with the daughter. Doesn't mean I have to like it lol.

BlackBerry will survive in the Corporate and Government Sectors! My Z10 is so much better than an iphone!

I really like posting l-o-n-g comments.

"In his report, he comments on the higher probability of a sale of the company or a strategic partnership versus a going private transaction."

1) Going private IS a sale of the company.
2) Nothing stops them from doing both (i.e. going private and seeking a strategic partnership).
3) A private sale doesn't automatically mean a breakup of the company (although this depends on the buyer(s)).

They may be able to sell off parts of the hardware, but not the entire portion. The reason why BB's security is so good is because of it's close ties to the hardware. Getting rid of all of the hardware basically cripples the end-to-end security. This is something that a lot of people don't understand. Running a SWS or other container type software on a device is not as good as an end-to-end solution (Yes, even BES10 SWS for Android and iOS is not as good as running a BB end-to-end solution, but it offers a lot more options than the other MDM solutions). Remember, if you have root access to the phone's OS, you don't need to decrypt the channel information, the phone will do that for you. All you have to do is access the data after the fact. But I digress...

For starters, I think they need to go private to get away from the writers at Forbes and others who can somehow attribute panda deaths in China to poor quarterly BB phones sales in the US. BB's brand has, and continues to be, dragged through the mud. Yes, they screwed up, but the constant barrage of crap from the media doesn't help. I'm all for saying they had a crappy quarter and their phone sales were below expectations, but printing daily articles re-hashing months old news makes them a-holes, not tech writers (I use that term lightly regardless).

Next, they need to partner with a company to make low-end phones to grow the user base quicker. A larger user base will put pressure on app developers to get those damn apps on BB10, even though I don't care for any of them (well other than Google Maps, but BeMaps 10 Pro is pretty good). Oh, and F**k Netflix - had to get that off my chest.

I know some of you will hate me for saying this, but Samsung seems like good fit. Here's my reasoning:

1) The make pretty much all of the components on a phone, so BB stands no chance of making a handset cheaper than they can. I would want them only for making low end phones and getting cheaper components.
2) They want a plan 'B' OS. Their phones currently run off of an OS that they have zero control over. Tizen will go nowhere, so they should just stop wasting their time and money (which they have a lot of, mind you).
3) They want to break into the MDM market, and Knox will not help them get there. Now that MS is starting to gain some traction in that space as well, they need to kick it into gear or forget about it all together.
4) Samsung builds other stuff that Thor wants as part of the mobile computing vision.

So, private + Samsung partnership is my view. Keeps the company in tact and both benefit. But who knows, only time will tell.

Don't hate your points at all. BlackBerry needs to produce high end phones that are secure for those that require that! And low end phones for the consumer who don't give a shit about high security. Over night, bb10 would be a hit if Samsung announced it as going to start building hardware for BlackBerry. This is a very likely scenario as Samsung is advertising BBM cross platform in Africa. If BBM takes off cross platform, this could be the signal for Samsung to strike a deal. We will see.

BlackBerry will survive in the Corporate and Government Sectors! My Z10 is so much better than an iphone!

This has gotta be a bad thing. I don't see how this can be good. BlackBerry will begin dilution!

We're going down down in an earlier round! Sugar were going down swinging!

Posted via Q10 using CB10

He is the same guy who expected BB to beat the street last quarter.
He estimated gross margin to go up from 40% to 44% in reality its down to 33% even though there is higher margin BB 10 devices.

Keep your expectations low and hope for the best.

Nah. They need to remain a manufacturer of at least one or two fully native devices IMHO.

Leave partner to make the rest.

~STV on Z10STL100-3/ TMO US

No they don't, I already pitched the idea of a 'built for blackberry' hardware edition. A series of quality points a device must fulfill to run the licensed BB10. Windows does it and it works.
The number one reason BlackBerry is in dire straits is because of their hardware division; while being quality products, their refresh cycle compared to the market was ridiculously slow.

I hate to say it but people want a phone that has a quad core, that has ample amounts of RAM. No matter what the OS actually uses or needs. More means better in the consumer smartphone market and BlackBerry never caught on to that.
Dwindling ecosystem? That's a moot point with the addition of Android apps.
Hardware is what's doing them in and they still don't seem to realize it.

License out the BB10 OS, license out the keyboard design and have a 'built for BlackBerry' hardware edition.
You'll get the BlackBerry OS on more phones, revenues will grow due to being transformed to a services company with very little overhead.

And come on BlackBerry, create an app or just buy SideSwype, integrate it in BlackBerry App World so users can download Android apps without having to sideload the damn things.
How is it that a 3rd party always seems to be faster in executing the good ideas, is there really no one at BlackBerry that's ever pitched this idea?

WhatsApp => PTT service (Come on guys, you got this!)
SideSwype => Installing Android apps without sideloading (seriously, no one ever thought of this?)
BeMaps Pro 10 => So much better than BlackBerry Maps (either buy them or stop developing BBMaps and license the BeMaps Pro application for every device)
The list goes on....

I'd love to see a new VP of innovation (do they even have one?) and someone who slaps the board back into reality.
It's really not that hard to get this company to turn around, they have the cash and they have the services/networking hardware in place. Time to make some executive decisions Heins. Get rid of the hardware division, expand the VOIP and BB10 division, start a buy-back program.

I don't really agree that hardware is that important Moto/Google doesn't see to think so. But.. the rest of what you say sounds great.

Cut it up and sell for pieces. Ask the board to resign, I am a shareholder but I do not feel our interest has been cared for. Watching this company fall.... with absolute silence from management has evaporated the market cap.
It feels like the MySpace story all over again.

BlackBerry can't profit from hardware because they don't benefit from economies of scale. They've always been trailing and it was OK when they had some strength on the software side.
Selling to any name mentioned in this article would be the death of BlackBerry as we know it and it would be sad.
Still hoping for a joint venture with Samsung to build their Pro division.
And the sales numbers in the next financial report are going to be so bad (told you the Q10 wasn't the saviour you were so sure it was), that I really hope they will have something positive to announce regarding potential partners.

The Sony-BlackBerry deal sounds very well, but i don't honestly see why and how could BB10 help any new Xperia get more marketshare than what it happens now with Android. Yet, seeing how many competion they get from Samsung, LG, HTC and others Sony might see opportunities in the enterprise business and in cars. Who knows, BB10 (maybe they would change the name in QNX Mobile) could power future Sony smartphones, tablets and even TVs and gaming consoles (playstation). On the other side Sony could spread its contents store (music, movies, books) on its very own platform.
Yet, i see the risk BlackBerry disappear as smartphone maker and becomes a software and services company, with indeed companies as Cisco, IBM or Qualcomm more willing to make investments in it.
Should one of them wanting to keep investing in smartphones they should also buy and integrate with BlackBerry two companies: Digia, actual owner of the Qt Project and Myriad, maker of the Alien Dalvik Virtual Machine to run Android applications. That would make BB much more interesting at all.

You speak of Sony. One of the Ford commercials shows the Fiesta with a Sony stereo I believe. So Sony must be interested.

BlackBerry will survive in the Corporate and Government Sectors! My Z10 is so much better than an iphone!

I'm not sure if the Government can do anything for BlackBerry, but I wish they would do something. I watched Nortel sale off their assets 4 years ago and Canada lost it telecommunication manufacturer. And wait, as I remembered, Silver Lake also participated....I wish BBRY wouldn't have the same ending.

1. Go private

2. Create a Joint Venture with a Hardware manufacturer and make High performance, Low cost Physical Qwerty's keypad smartphones, with larger screens and a Nokia 520/625 competing (on price and exceeding specs) full touchscreen device.

That Hardware manufacturing partner should be either, ASUS, Ericsson or Lenovo.

3. Create a device (Like under £100 Cheap) with an 8 inch display, which pairs with the Q5, Q10 and A10/Z30, effectively becoming a a Tablet. If ASUS is the partner for this device, then allow for the BB10 devices to directly dock into the 8 inch display size and cost permitting.

4. If all of the above dont get the boards permission or if all the above ultimately fail, then sell all valuable assets to samsung and enjoy the retirement plan.

Clearly someone has stopped drinking the Koolaid in Waterloo. What's triggered the decision is that BlackBerry have put all the hardware cards on the table apart from the Premium Z30 and the numbers don't add up. Don't get me wrong The BB10 phones and Os are slick but what's pissed me off after moving from a curve to a Z10 is I don't have my mobile Banking app or Podcast app and I don't even use Facebook so how you convince the MTV generation to jump on board is beyond me.
I've heard pipe dream suggestions like going android or selling out to established handset manufacturers. But seriously who's making money off of Android apart from Google and Samsung and no established manufacturers will buy the company unless it's to access the patent portfolio. The best hope is a licensing partnership with Lenovo with the remaining core company concentrating on software.
Making money on handsets is as big a feat as Mercator squaring the circle in the 17th century.

Wait until 10.2 is released. Even if your bank doesn't release a BB10 app you should be able to side load the Android equivalent with little problem. And there are tools out there now to make that process relatively straightforward.

Whatever the outcome may be. Let's hope BB10 is still alive and well. BlackBerry selling it's hardware business and licensing it's OS and Partner up with another tech company for M2M software business. Sounds good to me.

Posted via CB10

I really would like to see BlackBerry partner up with HTC because I believe that HTC makes some amazing hardware and is struggling to get a foothold in the marked here in the USA. Same as BlackBerry is struggling. HTC devices powered by BlackBerry 10 that would be a sick combination!

Posted via CB10

You are all wrong

Fairfax holdings is going to purchase the remaining 90% and Blackberry will go private. You need not worry about whether or not BB10 will be safe as it will be, going private only affects the shareholders and gives BB time to fix it's issues without public spotlight (this is a great move considering that this OS needs as much work as possible). BB will improve BB10, (maybe)license it out eventually, and it will come back to the public at a future time (perhaps). Don't worry, BB10 is only going to get better from here on out.

After reviewing their financial, and doing some research on Pram Watsa, I am 100% confident that this is an extremely smart move on their part.

As they say, big things have small beginnings

oh, and if you want some proof as to what I've said above, feel free to read for yourself:

+1 Not sure Mr Papageorgiou's record is that great on BlackBerry. Unless he's just spreading confusion.

I've thought for some time that the only way to escape the glare of negative PR is to get the company private. I stand to lose personally but I can't see any way they can avoid it.

Fail to get BlackBerry out of the grip of market manipulators and they'll eventually kill it dead. It's not the trading of shares that's the problem, it's the constant negative PR that ultimately starts to be believed by consumers and enterprises alike.

Couldn't have said it better myself. What RIM needs right now is to get out of the spotlight, iron out this OS, and start pushing hard for app development and a smoother integration with android apps. That being said, I also just noticed that the 10.2 Gold SDK will be announced tomorrow - so I imagine the final release should be coming out around October. I really hope US carriers don't lag in pushing it out this time, but only time will tell.

I was hesitant on upgrading back to Blackberry, but just said fuck it, and got my Q10 today. I am confident that things will only get better as time goes by.

Well I am glad that you have the confidence and good for you. Frankly I am worried that BBRY is in an extremely difficult spot and I am wondering if they will still be in a position to build BB10 devices this time next year.

Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10

Confidence comes from the fact they're sitting on a fair amount of cash, so could probably survive for a year or possibly two with zero sales. So no need to worry about whether devices will be built (subject to the results of any review of course). They'd be demolished in the market of course but nothing new there.

However, the fact they've come out now and announced this review, suggests there has been a material change in their business. Either that or they had this previously planned subject to sales numbers or other factors.

My guess is they have a fair idea what is going to happen next but are willing to listen to offers. They can't just take a public company private without covering any other options that may be available and putting those options to shareholders. Due diligence must be observed or the company will be mired in legal action for years.

My guess is a LBO and the company will become a private corporation owned by Prem Watsa, Mike Laziridis and a consortium of institutions and/or banks.

With enough cash in the war chest they can continue to develop BB10, cross platform BBM and BES10 and once reestablished go public again in a couple of years time.

Have to say the 10.2 SDK looks to have more or what I expected from BlackBerry and is on the way to making BB10 head and shoulders better than the competition.

Ultimately they have to get the company out of the public eye to avoid damaging their reputation any further. Even if they had the worlds best phone (OS wise arguably they do) they still won't sell if the media is constantly warning of their death.

Even BlackBerry fans are starting to believe the nonsense.

Going public is a double edge sword, and USA stock market sometimes is so rough and ruthless. Companies like BBRY should stay away from that for good.

It's not a good sign as it shows that the company is not truly believing in there products. If the leading team has not confidence how does it affect BB employees? Imo there is only yes or no when you run a business. 'maybe this, maybe that' is a weak position and leads into nothing.

Yes, Yes, this is BlackBerry. WE are a security software company who happens to build the BEST handsets but, the "home built" handsets must remain the best (thus expensive)and the manufacturer of the market sets must be very good at delivering reliability at a developing market cost so as not to smear the BlackBerry name. There are a number of those manufacturers.

Most commentators point to the fact that the BlackBerry Management team has made numerous elementary mistakes since the launch of BB10; everything from poor marketing campaigns to overpriced phones to lack of carrier support to untimely OS updates to leaking info of future phones with outdated specs, all of which has culminated in the company finally announcing it is open to the prospect of strategic partnerships, an outright sale or becoming a private concern. The Board of Management has displayed a shockingly high level of incompetence in its execution of day to day business and evoked erodinging confidence in its loyal supporters and absolutely no confidence in its detractors. The commentators are right, the ineptitude is disgraceful to the point of disbelief...which is why the more this saga unfolds the more I see the "Rope-a-Dope" strategy being employed by BlackBerry. Take what looks like a severe beating until you're seemingly down and out, then when the opposition moves in for the kill, you counter with a barrage of blows catching them off guard and knocking them out. The BlackBerry Aristo/A10/Z30 may be first of many counter punches BlackBerry plans to release over the next two years.

You might make more sense if you bothered to add a paragraph or two.

It's true that earlier management made some pretty elementary mistakes. But for the last 18 months that charge isn't fair.

BlackBerry launched the 10 series into the worst market conditions for premium smartphones since phones were invented.

ALL the major manufacturers are having problems selling phones - relative to their scale. That includes Samsung and Apple. Even the mighty Samsung are discounting their phones and Apple are about to launch a low cost iPhone. BlackBerry just happen to be starting from a lower base.

The truth is that their obsession with BlackBerry 10 - caused by paying too much attention to the chattering classes in the marketplace led them to produce no hardware in 2012 - and the consequent loss of share. It will take some time for that loss to be recovered.

Uhmmm... In case now one has noticed, Blackberry put itself up for sale this morning. R.I.P Blackberry. It was nice knowing ya. Now..when's that new iPhone coming out again? Oh wait that Windows Phone with the 41mp camera looks nice.

As many mentioned, I'd rather see not a partnership with an American company...

QNX is an excellent embedded OS, Sony could see great advanatage of it to their Pro Video and Photo products. Sony consumer products may not be very successful yet Sony is market leader in broadcasting solutions.

Sony's expertise in harware design and manufacturing combined with BlackBerry's software portfolio could be a huge turn around point for both companies.

Whatever happens, proud to be a BlackBerry user - wanting to see the company do more and better.

I will bring up my point once again. This new strategic committee was setup to generate ideas on how to increase the sales of BB10 devices. This IMO is a great idea obviously.

I don't see anything about breaking up the company. A strategic partnership would be a much better deal, or even a buyout where BBRY continues to stay whole and continues to sell its products and services but now with added funding.

I've said from the beginning, the issue was the lack of marketing.

BlackBerry hasn't really made hardware for a long time. They out source the manufacture to contract manufacturers.

And they absolutely need to go private. Every time there is a quarterly announcement they suffer a barrage of negative PR as market manipulators move the stock for profit - even when they've met guidance.

If you're a corporate buyer and all you see on the various business news media is BlackBerry losing money would you buy BES10?

Clearly the sales teams are receiving feedback that says "we love your product, but will you be here next year?".

Take the company private and all that negative PR goes away. Once the company is turned around and with the continued production of decent hardware, they can take it public again.

BlackBerry needs to control the entire ecosystem to be successful. They don't have the size to compete on costs with Samsung or Apple. And creating a software or services only company would dramatically reduce their size. They're worth more together than the sum of their parts.

Having 30% of the available stock shorted can't be good either.
The company needs some breathing time to get their sh1t together. Going private is a big step and cuts out the glare of publicity.
The smartphone market is a form of Chinese torture. Apart from Apple who's making money on the premium side?
The problem now is cheap android phones are a tsunami ready to swamp all but the most resilient competing os's.

"The problem now is cheap android phones are a tsunami ready to swamp all but the most resilient competing os's."

True. But only if you don't care about security. There's still a big hole BlackBerry can fill. But they won't do so when every 5 minutes some expert on TV is saying they're about to die. However stupid the comments are they fill the air with noise that cannot be ignored.

I think a partnership would be preferential, if BlackBerry wishes to remain in the hardware market.

If not - then privatisation (ie if fairfax or silverlake or whoever takes BlackBerry on) is no bad thing - they get all the patents, noc, bes subs and all the rest and BlackBerry can grow developing it's software and services and move on from there. It will be a smaller company. And probably not consumer based.

Who the partners would be... well I personally can't square sony. They wanted to up their mobile stance and signed up with ericsson and that was toxic, but lucrative for the patents purchased. Google has bought motorola and done what with it? Patents make money though. Sony has money issues. HTC also. Who else? Who even wants to? Why would they want to?

Other than the services, what would BlackBerry have to offer? There's another article with the title asking who should BlackBerry partner with (or something like that).

The question is who wants to partner with BlackBerry.

BlackBerry is bleeding.

But they have patents and services that, if exploited correctly, can be mined for a lucrative return. That said, in all objectivity, is bb10 the asset everyone makes it out to be? The market has declared apathy. No one wants it on a BlackBerry. What honestly makes one think it will sell on a sony or something? I think a jv would allow cheap - as in actually cheaper - devices, like an HTC one x+ or something, a £300 bb10 phone. That's better. I still think it will fail, but this is purely down to how the brand perception has been slaughtered.

My fear is that a jv will not be a partnership. It will be biased against BlackBerry. It has to be. BlackBerry just put itself up for sale. This shows their weak hand. Whoever comes in will offer a lot. In return they get the BlackBerry treasure chest.

I would hate to see BlackBerry abused like nokia or motorola. Motorola was a world leader. So was nokia. So was blackberry. Through arrogant mismanagement BlackBerry has declined. This fall is five to seven years in the making. They never adapted.

JV is a way out, privatisation also - either way the BlackBerry I've invested in, these past 13 years, is gone. I'm financially insulated. I wish BlackBerry was.

I am sorely disappointed.

And I wish them all the best.

Posted via CB10 on my BlackBerry Q10


People can wish all they want for a US company not to take over Blackberry, dissect it and sell its parts off, but it's inevitable unless the Canadian feds step in, and we all know they don't care to save a company who is 90% dead.

That being said its time we face the ugly truth. Blackberry is dying and who ever swoops in and buys it, is going to buy it. We can hope for the best but this is not a Hollywood movie with a fake happy ending. This is life, and life can suck.

I will be stockpiling my Playbook apps while the Blackberry world is still open. Anyone know if the Playbook email and Blackberry servers will die when Blackberry dies??? Sad day but true.

It's profit that maintains a company. Android has 70% global share but apart from Samsung who is profiting from running android? The android market is already saturated. HTC are forecasting a major loss for next quarter and Sony is struggling to gain a foothold.
Choosing android and banging out cheap phones is not the answer.

Any handset maker who has adopted Android has had great success. Blackberry would have been no different, and it would have been a lot better in retrospect considering BB10 flopped.

The BB10 loyalists can talk till the cows come home but Android last year would have put BB back on the map. And Android has some wonderful phones which are by no means cheap.

And the UI on Android is highly customizable. BlackberryAndroid could have done some wonderful UI customization that would have easily rivaled BB10.

This stock has been seriously manipulated....... I think the time for the short thesis and constant bashing of this great company is over........ BlackBerry is making it's come back and smart investors will hold on for a price north of 20......

Posted via CB10

Not trying to be negative here but if the stock has risen 11% since yesterdays announcement, thats because stock holders are happy some huge company like Samsung is going to buy Blackberry. This isn't a comeback but investors feeling secure their stock will be worth something when (Samsung for example) takes over. Has zero to do with some sort of Blackberry comeback. The company sadly is in bad shape.

Since announcement on Monday, the BB shares have risen +11%

The announcement was 'old news' from several months ago (said in other ways).
Perhaps the statement was to bring excitement to the analysts and potential partners or buyers.
Well, the idea worked. Monday's news was front page on the Tuesday financial pages.

Strange, comments of Apple being king over BB have been absent. Be it known, Apple's share of the smart phone market is dropping like a rock, where Samsung is building share and BB has remained low but stable.

IMO the eventual successful suitor will be a Canadian finance company that wants, long term, to put money in and build the company. This would exclude a vulture capitalist company.
The Canadian government will in no-way allow a far eastern company from getting involved.
Otherwise, that leaves only well healed companies, like IBM, from being the 'winner'.

Not sure I agree with your analisis of a Canadian company saving the day. Everyone knows US super companies pretty much rule with their wall street capatilism. The Canadian government can't really do squat in stopping a US or Asian bid unless they are willing to have a federal buyout of Blackberry to keep it Canadian.

I support Blackberry and use my Playbook daily along with my Samsung Tablet, but lets get real here. It's Canadian arrogance of trying to be an original rebel with BB10 which put Blackberry in its current financial mess. The market has changed drastically since BBs hey day in 2005, so maybe a US takeover will get Blackberry back on track, as Canadian rebelism has done crap for this once great company.

I agree, if a financial institution is involved, may be a conglomerate which has US and or Canadian HQ; there are often cross-border operations.
As far as outright purchase by a Far Eastern maker or financial institution, it is my understanding that the Canadian government has some say in the transaction. BB has high security systems which the Canadian government would want to assure remained under appropriate control.
Strange, I have not heard of interest by European based companies.

"The market has changed drastically since BBs hey day in 2005", true again. Cell phones are a commodity. Almost all new smart phones have similar functions.How they get there and the hardware profile differentiates models. All the makers have the same perplexing problem, how to make money in ways other than selling the instrument. Apple and Google have profit centers in their 'stores', stuff that they do not make, rather re-sell, and ad revenue. Blackberry has income from enterprise servers and required contracts. 'Contracts' will be less profitable as things, like BBM, go cross platform. So, BB has to think about stuff to re-sell or advertising revenue?

"We won’t see the next set of numbers until September 27th, at which time we should also have some early evidence on the potential success of cross-platform BBM."

But that product will only be out by September 20th, just on Android by the sounds of it. Not too much to gauge on a week's worth of activity.

Hey Birdman. I'm looking forward to the cross platform BBM as well. Would be great to use my Playbook with Android friends. I use my Samsung Tablet daily as my main tablet, but miss using my Playbook for business.

Unfortunately with Blackberrys track record of killing Playbook, Z10 lagging sales and now going on the auction block I'm not going to hold my breath with BBM. I don't think its going to happen. If it does I fear its not going to be a game changer for Blackberry...but we can hope, and hope is a powerful thing. Keeps me using my Playbook daily and supporting this once great company.

Theres a feel and a magic I get using my Playbook I don't get using my Samsung. The same magic I get when I use my wifes iPad. There's a feel of magic, class and style I get using these 2 tablets. That's got to count for something.

Do you folks know what most PE firms do for a living? They buy struggling firms (80-90% below peak market value) with little to no debit, good cash flow and assets they can sell in a pinch if the restructuring doesn't work out. Hint it rarely works out.

They then proceed to saddle the firm with massive debt, collect obscene mgt fees, gut the firm of talent (spun as "providing the business with much needed focus") and then leave the rotting carcass by the side of the road destined to be another case study for a Business School.

Handset companies need near constant buzz, media coverage coupled with market leading tech and innovation. They cannot go into cloister mode and make accountants smile. They will be forgotten in months if not weeks. Their retail & carrier presence will dry up over night.

BB needs a partner or buyer which is well regarded tech firm. They are closer to the fate of Palm than fan sites want to believe. If anything Palm is showing PE firms it is better to do a pre-emptive strike versus a long slow bleed.

If Blackberry handles the sale of the company the same way they handled Playbook, Z10 and countless product update lies, its going to be a nasty slow long bleed for them. No well regarded company like Samsung is going to take interest in Blackberry, a company with a horrible track record for lying to their loyal customers. People and companies hate liars and I feel the vultures circling.

About 2 years ago... BBRY (RIMM at the time) should have entertained SERIOUS conversations with Google about a development partnership between BBOS (and the early stage at that time QNX BB10) and Android OS. This partnership or sale with the BBRY branding intact would have made an INCREDIBLE amount of sense for both Goog and Bbry in the battle for hand held supremacy with Apple. A jointly branded and developed device would have been great. And while I understand the logistical challenge that is blending corporate cultures and such for partnership purposes, there was a moment where it could have just about worked.

In the current moment, I can't say that I think a suitable partner out there. A few possible takers, but no one that has the ability to leverage what BBRY does really well (the OS) and help fix what BBRY does terrible (Business strategy, branding, marketing, sales etc...). More importantly at this point any partnership comes with an incredible amount of baggage from BBRY due to the perception of desperation in the move. As such a strategic partnership or joint venture would be DOA. A sale however wouldn't be bad... but in the current state a sale of any sort effectively ends BBRY as we know it (not just in name, but in practice and effect)... So if you love BBRY a sale is the same thing as shuttering the doors, unless you own stock...

This leaves going private... Which despite the analysts opinion has merit for BBRY for actually turning its fortunes around. I agree that such a turn would be possible away from the public eye and the pressures of being in your face. The company could realistically go for broke and spend that BILLIONS it has in cash on marketing and advancing the product without the requirement of immediate ROI, ROE, and ROA as demanded by being public. Private investors might make the BB10 play into a 3-5 year move rather than a Doug Flutie style hail mary which it currently is.

Anyways that's just my business brain thoughts... time will tell, but BBRY is in a bad way at the moment, strategically and operationally.

I have to question analysis that simply argues that BlackBerry is well-positioned to provide car and m2m solutions without looking at what other companies are also well-positioned or even better positioned. There may be opportunity, but it is difficult to tell what role BlackBerry might play in that opportunity. BlackBerry is hardly an established player in these markets of the future and I'm not sure how much of their technical advantage is protected by IP or what the barriers to entry might look like for other firms.

The smartphone and enterprise computing markets are easier to understand based on BlackBerry's longstanding presence there.

Posted via CB10

It's called QNX which is already well positioned in the Automotive Industry, Medical Systems, Defense Systems, etc., BlackBerry's QNX is very well positioned. The question is will they continue this trend and make it grow further. I think so.