Research In Motion to announce their Second Quarter Fiscal 2013 Results September 27th

Research In Motion
By Michelle Haag on 5 Sep 2012 06:15 pm EDT

It's time for Research In Motion to announce their Second Quarter Fiscal 2013 Results and they will be doing so on September 27th, 2012. There will be a conference call and live webcast that evening beginning at 5PM EST. Full press release below including information on accessing the webcast. We'll be tuned into the event to see what the outcome is, and as always a follow up with the more important takeaways from the information.

Press Release

WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - September 05, 2012) - Research In Motion Limited (RIM) (NASDAQ: RIMM)(TSX: RIM) will be reporting results for the second quarter of fiscal 2013 on September 27, 2012 after the close of the market. A conference call and live webcast will be held beginning at 5 pm ET, which can be accessed by dialing 1-800-814-4859 or through your personal computer or BlackBerry® PlayBook™ tablet at A replay of the conference call will also be available at approximately 7 pm by dialing (+1)416-640-1917 and entering pass code 4501367#. A replay of the webcast will be available on your personal computer or BlackBerry PlayBook tablet by clicking the link above. This replay will be available unt il midnight ET October 11, 2012.

Scheduled Quarterly Results Conference calls for FY 2013                    
Q2: September 27, 2012, after markets close                               
Q3: December 20, 2012, after markets close                                
Q4: March 28, 2013, after markets close

Michelle Haag Michelle Haag "@_Miche11e_ and C0001B3B5" 1214 (articles) 1695 (forum posts)

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Research In Motion to announce their Second Quarter Fiscal 2013 Results September 27th


It's going to be a very interesting quarter.. A lot of factors come into play here. I know we are all waiting for BlackBerry 10 to arrive, but what will happen until then?

We have Microsoft/Nokia presenting their up and coming, we have Google/Motorola, Apple, and then RIM (actually, a long time after these others).

Financially, in the short-term, it is not going to look very pretty.

What do we have to look forward to for Q2 FY 2013?

1. The first thing that I will be looking for is how much cash they are bringing in (Cash flow from operations) versus how much cash they are using.

a. RIM has been exponentially increasing their support for developers, launching BB Jam World Tour, seeding thousands of BlackBerry PlayBooks and BlackBerry 10 Dev Alpha units; all of this eats up cash. In addition to other costs associated with the development and launch of their new QNX-based BlackBerry platform.

b. Restructuring - We all know that the company is in a drastic restructuring phase, cutting their workforce by approx. 5,000 people. These are also cash items, as severance packages need to be paid out.

c. How much cash are they actually bringing in from their operations? This includes their hardware division (low margins) and their services division (higher margins). Their cash flow from operations was approx $710 million in Q1 FY 2013, which is down from $1.1B in the previous quarter.

2. How many BlackBerry smartphones did they ship in this quarter?

The second quarter isn't RIMs strongest quarter historically. Last year, in Q2 FY 2012 they only shipped 10.6M units compared to 13.2M units the quarter before (Q1 FY 2012) which resulted in a drop of approx 20%. Compared year-over-year, Q2 FY 2011 shipments were 12.1M.

Remember, they only shipped 7.8 million in Q1 FY 2013.

With a global economic slowdown in full force, coupled with customers waiting for BlackBerry 10 devices to come out; do not expect RIM device shipments to be anything but disappointing. Recently , global smartphone shipment growth has reached the slowest pace since Q4 2009 (in the middle of the credit crisis). My expectation is that we will see an approx. 30%+ drop in device shipments quarter over quarter, which would amount to RIM shipping approx 5.5M devices in Q2 FY 2013.

3. Will lower smartphone shipments for RIM equate to another inventory write down?

It is definitely possible that RIM will announce another inventory write down, similar to the ones we have seen the past two quarters, for their BlackBerry 7 devices. If they have not shipped as much devices as they thought, they will most likely write down their inventory and take the loss into income.

4. How significant is the pressure from the carriers on BlackBerry Services?

RIM has been bringing in approx. $1B revenue per quarter from their services business. With carriers putting pressure on the price of these services, how has that affected RIMs revenue? It would be positive if they can retain the $1B quarter, but be prepared for this to dip below that mark which could significantly affect their bottom line.

These four items that I expanded on could equate to revenue dropping below the $2B mark, first time since Q4 FY 2012.

In summary, the picture definitely does not look very bright for Research In Motion in the short-term. We all know that BlackBerry 10 is coming, and it looks like it is going to be amazing; but that is 5-6 months away.

Like I mentioned above, the global economic slow down is in full force, which is affecting how much people spend. The unemployment picture is definitely not looking that great in the US and parts of Europe. This has resulted in one of the slowest quarters for smartphone shipment growth since Q4 2009. This will definitely effect RIM this quarter, which will lead to less smartphone shipments, less revenue and less income. We will have to wait until Sept 27th to find all of this out.

Like always, I will be glued to Bloomberg to find out the earnings when they release after the bell on Thursday, September 27th and I will also be tweeting during the earnings call later that evening.

Follow me on Twitter (@SurrealCivic) for more of my opinions, thoughts and analysis on RIM.

while i agree with your analysis and expectations, you havent mentioned userbase size, obviously anything less than 78m would be a big problem for RIM, as that would reflect negative subs growth.

Also, its funny, but people are showing nokia lumias alot of love in the press, when since the launch of the very first lumia its shipped just 7m lumias to date over 54 countries. As your figures show, thats less than BB shipped in the last quarter. just figured id mention it for balance.

That's because Microsoft have lots of cash to send to media avenues therefore they are able to get good reviews all over.

From the "Reality Bites" News Desk:

Expect another round of lay-offs within the next quarter as the BlackBerry 10 gets delayed yet again. Expect many support operations to be outsourced although every attempt will be made to mask the outsourcing in hopes that customers think they are speaking with RIM employees. And because you know bad things always happen to RIM there will be another global infrastructure outage in 2013.

Here's to hoping reality doesn't have to bite.

And like Pinnochio's nose, Kevin's hair grows longer and longer. I'm just kidding CB Kevin (about Pinnochio's nose). Ha! Ha!

I know they're going to come back with a disappointing story, I just hope it's not as bad as I'm thinking it will be.

I guess now we get ready for another round of RIM bashing by the media. I wonder what those who've seen BB10 will write up.



Why do you think the results are going to be really good and they will misreport them ?

We all know what to expect. It will not be good. I want to see if those who've seen BB10 will be able to say it's not over yet. Time will tell.


Half the stuff the media says about RIM is the truth. The thing about it is crackberry comesback with a negative shot towards the author of the article, that's where the denial,blind BlackBerry users come in with the famous quotes: "Rome wasn't built overnight" "the world is waiting for a bb10 phone""bb10 will be a game changer""QNX is in power stations & high speed trains" Same bs just a different day.

Actually she made to much sense you along with those two that +1 your comment is blind fools with a BlackBerry. Those quotes bb users use are so common.

I'm not a blind "fanboy" or "follower". Fuck the media. And get off here if you don't got nothing good to say on a BlackBerry centric site.

Let me fix that for you:
I'm a blind "fanboy" or "follower". I love the media. And get off here if you don't HAVE anything good to say on a blind blackberry centric site.

There you go.

The next 3 quarters (and possibly 4) will all be bad (to leave it simple). If whatever they call on the 27th does not affect the launch of BB10 then RIM will resist.


The results of the strategic review should be mentioned, and hopefully concluded with some positive results in terms of direction.

The fact that Prem double down throws things a bit. Why would he be buying knowing the quarter is down. As a matter of fact, why was he buying at all, considering he new the co ceos before the collapse. Maybe there's something that could turn sentiment.

Prem has a 5 year investment horizon. The noise you hear from analysts and financial publications is focused on day to day or month to month froth at most. In the short term, there's just not much to be positive about in RIM financials. Prem is making a long term bet on the turn-around which will take years, not months. So the positive I take from that is a very smart buy and hold investor sees value in the long term RIM story.

NOW he has a 5 year investment horizon, but what was it Prem saw in rim @50 over a year ago?? Also whats the rush to double down if his horizon is so far out?
Buying before the quarter is odd, knowing (he's on the board) that it's going to be bad, unless it isn't.

His track record for rim has not been great, although I don't know all the details. He holds 15% from what I can gather, seems like a big chunk for a long shot.

I think Prem is a contrarian and value investor by nature and philosophy. The companies he takes long positions in are always long term investments. I can't speak to the short and hedge positions he takes but these tend to be shorter term plays. Also, even at 15% of RIM this is a relatively minor holding in the Fairfax portfolio. He could easily decide to take a majority position with some of the cash they have lying around and prevent a hostile takeover if he thought it was not in their best interests.

Prem seems to buy turnarounds with an obvious catalyst that is being ignored by everyone else. He buys those stocks i na basket and wins in the end, even with a few fails.

Pack up the kids, Betsy! Git the canned food and ma shotgun. Don't forget the dog... actually, forget the damn dog, y'hear?! I'll bring the pick-up round the front. Oh lawd, they's comin to take the house.

Rim needs to counter with a #Bold move. Something other than a #wakeup campaign.

Show us the hardware!!! I want to see a BB10 Qwerty!!!

But with even moderate success for BB10, a 100% increase in the share price of RIMM is not out of the question. In fact, I would say that returning above $14/share for RIMM is a given IF they deliver on BB10. However, even the most fanboy of analysts aren't predicting $1300/share for AAPL...

I will continue to advise not buying the stock as I have till now. That being said, watch out for a "sell the rumor - buy the fact" trade here. The short interest in the stock in near record levels and with a few weeks to go and the stock making new lows today, I wouldn't be surprised if shorts press their advantage a little more here, and look to get out on the announcement. My guess is for a snap back right after the announcement. Just saying - I am not putting 1 dime of mine into this trade and you should not either.

Never trade on a speculative stock with money you cannot say 100% bye bye to, never think a stock "can't go any lower" and never say never when it comes to stocks/speculation. It has been my experience over 35 years of trading the "nevers" have a way of humbling the most astute traders.

@green_ember don't misunderstand me, you can look up my forum postings to see I am consistent. You did not see me say "never" buy the stock and this company will "never" recover. I am only saying there will be better times to do so. Good stock trading isn't only knowing when to get out - it's knowing when to get in. With so much time between now and anything really good for RIM to come, I just think there will be a better chance to buy the stock.

My point is generally I would rather be a scale up buyer than a scale down buyer. Scale up buying of a growing company with good news, good earnings and a great product as we all hope BB10 will be - there will be ample opportunity to buy the stock over time. Everyone likes to look at Apple as the stock RIM will emulate. You didn't have to buy the low, or anywhere close to it, once they changed the narrative.

Patience will be rewarded, in a new BB10 phone, and a better buying opportunity.

My expectations are at the lowest right now. Operating loss + delay of bb10 until Q2 of 2013. So that when they do have a loss and a delay. I wouldn't be surprised haha

Please just tell me this is the last one before the phones come out.

One more round of kick RIM while it's down. No fun. I think I'll just try to avoid the news on the day.

I think it is in RIM's best interest to use BlackBerry Jam Americas as a way of distracting the press. RIM has three days from September 25-27 to prove they have something, so that by earnings calls, they provide the required data to their investors, however have enough ammo to prove their BB10 path and strategy has worth and that is by securing partnerships, financially and development invested large partnerships should indicate some kind of security amidst lower than expected Q2 results.
Or who knows, maybe it's still too early...hopefully by Q3 earnings they will have completed internal and carrier testing and provide a launch date. #dreaming

What will happen, If Rim comes out with better than expected numbers? Ofcourse its obvious the quarter will be a bad one but again any slight improvement and a solid bb10 release will push the stock up North. Do not sell our stock. you will regret.

I don't care about the numbers. I hope that Thorsten shows a working BB10 at the conference. They need to do something like this to show people that this is not vaporware. I am still shocked with all the "leaks" that people still don't believe Q12013 is real. Apple fan boys would be drooling over leaks like this. Oh my god, it is so shining mother fucker!

BB10 launching in January is a fact at this point. I just hope the entry level smartphone sales, Mobile Fusion, and perhaps even BlackBerry Balance will be enough to somewhat offset the rest of the business as to at least be only as bad as expectations are calling for. Here's to hoping for a -$0.44 per share loss.

Who cares about another quarterly "we're sucking big time" data dump? The press is going to meh the new OS, the public will be underwhelmed, and RIM is going to be broken up and sold for scrap. That is all you need to know.

You are so wrong. Just go fuck off and troll elsewhere... Take your doom and slimy gloom with you on the way out. Just don't get your penis stuck in the door behind you.