Jeffries cuts RIM stock from $15 to $12. Should You Really Believe This Big Call?

By Chris Umiastowski on 1 Mar 2012 11:44 am EST

This morning, Jeffries cut its target price on RIM to $12, down from $15. Every news source out there seems to be just quoting a few sentences from it. And who could blame them? There isn't much in the report to go on. I've read it and I'll tell you what it says, along with my take.

First of all, you have to realize that certain analysts on the Street have a habit of trying to make big, bold calls on stocks every quarter. They don't necessarily have any useful information when they publish big calls. They do it for the headlines it generates, and the fact that clients feel obligated to find out if there is anything beyond what was published.

I'm not going to tell you that this guy falls into that category. I'm just telling you it happens, so you need to keep your eye on the content of the report, not just the call.

That doesn't mean this particular report is right or wrong. I'm just saying ... don't put you faith in every big call you read on a stock. Especially if the report is a one pager citing "preliminary survey work".

So what does Jeffries have to say about RIM?

They believe the company has a +50% chance of pre-announcing worse than expected financial results for Q4. For those of you not so well versed with Wall Street lingo, RIM provides guidance for upcoming quarters on each conference call. RIM said it expected to ship 11 to 12 million handsets in Q4. Jeffries thinks that won't happen. They think 10.5 million is the correct number.

I think it's worth pointing out that RIM has a very good history at predicting its next-quarter shipment number. I'm talking about their ability to forecast out by one quarter here, not the long term growth of the company. Let's keep that in check. Point is, RIM has very VERY rarely had to issue a financial warning on next quarters's guidance.

Time to give you a sense of just how "out there" Jeffries is with their call on RIM. When I say "out there", I don't mean to imply they're crazy, wrong, or anything like that. Their call is just very different from consensus.

The average earnings estimate for RIM next year (Fiscal 2013) is $3.07 per share. Jeffries thinks they'll make only $1.87.

Keep in mind RIM expects to make $0.80 to $0.95 in Q4 (which ends on March 3rd). If they can actually achieve even the low end of this range and hang onto that level of profitability, consensus estimates of $3.07 make sense. So this report essentially says that RIM's earnings will keep dropping. Like a stone.

Why is their view so strong? In the near term, the analyst quotes "preliminary survey work". But very few details are provided. They think handset sales have deteriorated in North America, Europe and Latin America with a focus on European weakness late in the quarter. I have to say, getting this kind of granularity with any degree of accuracy is incredibly difficult. So call me a skeptic.

Also, I'm reminded of a conversation I had many years ago with a highly trusted industry consultant. He pointed out to me that December and January are great months for mobile phone sales. February is worse. So shouldn't we expect sales to tail off in the last month of the quarter?

Beyond the next quarter, the report talks about the risks of RIM launching BB10 after Apple launches iPhone 5. I think a few points are worth making here.

Yes, obviously we are all disappointed that BB10 is delayed until later this year. It sucks. And it isn't news anymore.

Carriers don't exactly push the iPhone. Apple pushes it (successfully of course). Carriers don't want to turn into a dumb pipe, so they're open to partnering with handset vendors who can stall or prevent this from happening. RIM is seen as one of those vendors. If BB10 delivers the consumer experience, carriers will push it.

We shouldn't draw long term conclusions on the success or failure of any platform based on the order of who launches what within a short term time window. If RIM was releasing BB10 one month before the iPhone 5 would it really matter? No, it wouldn't. It might prevent a few BB users from jumping ship as their old contract expires, but the overall numbers are not consequential to the long term results.

Overall, this report from Jeffries doesn't spell out any details on any "survey" details, nor does it convince me that there is any substance to the call. That doesn't make the call right or wrong. It's just not convincing. Just sayin'.

Reader comments

Jeffries cuts RIM stock from $15 to $12. Should You Really Believe This Big Call?


its not like RIM's phone business has been showing true signs of life...heck there are reports of another low-end curve in the works....

Dual-core, front camera, top-notch software-running BB phones are MIA....

Low End curve plays to their strengths in the large markets of India,Indonesia, and Africa, where the hardware is purchased without subsidy from the carrier. Tack on the $2 per month all you can message plan on BBM ,FM radio and you've got a great inexpensive social networking music playing device. Very affordable for the 100's of millions who aren't going to be buying the high end phones and don't want to pay the per text rate charged by the carriers.

Sent from my BlackBerry Playbook.

except when you look at BIS vs other standard monthly data plan, BIS is the more expensive if iPhone start doing their magic marketing in Indonesia for example, then BB is a goner...any difference in the costs of the handsets will be quickly made up by the difference in monthly fees.

From my experience its usually the other way around. Bb social and email plans are the cheapest after dumb phone data plans. Bb data is on par with data for regular smartphones and use that data much more efficiently...

Like I said blackberry has the cheapest data plans after dumb phones social/email plans. And even unlimited plans... Carriers charge what they want, if it's more is cause of revenue losses due to services.

But from what I've seen your still wrong. Bell fido Telus rogers Canada disagree with you...
Digicel carribean/Latin America disagrees with you...

I post verifiable facts not just my opinion, can you?

I doubt it....You didn't look to see who posted it did you?
"Posted by JackKennedy" The guy is always trolling around CB making anti-BB remarks.
RIM just finished negotiating the cheapest all you can message plans with carriers in India in anticipation of the rollout of the low end edge only and inexpensive 3G Curves just coming out. BBM only for 129 rupees per month
As it points out in the article, BBM is way more than just another IM app. Note the quotes from the college student re the comparison with the competing platforms' message app Lots of value for the least per month.

Sent from my BlackBerry Playbook

I do not know in your country, but here in Brazil, the complete BIS plan, with email, "unlimited" internet and access to BBM and Twitter, Facebook, etc., costs more than the normal plans for devices such as low and mid-end Androids, the iPhone 3Gs, and others.

The iPhone would be considered a high-end phone, so people wouldn't be flocking to buy iphones even if Apple started "doing their magic", especially when minimum wage in Indonesia is about $100US per month.

I really don't think the BB would be a goner, even in this scenario.

But while you can get a cheap curve, without subsidies, can be a problem when you see that needs to pay a voice plan, plus the BIS to use BBM, Email, among other things.

Giving an example, the Curve 8520, which is sold here in Brazil without subsidies (and it's selling really well) was sold in a promotion by the operator TIM, with RIM, where users of prepaid plans didn't need to pay for internet access to social networks and BBM until February 2012.

Increased customer base, of course, but after the promotion ends, many people ended up switching device, or continued with a prepaid plan, with no internet, email and BBM, because the cheapest plan that the operator TIM offered, which included a voice plan and BIS costs around R$ 89 per month, which, in U.S. dollars, is just over 50, and is too much for a customer base that was used to spend just over US$ 15 per month with a voice plan.

"its not like RIM's phone business has been showing true signs of life"

Unless you consider consecutive quarters of growth (barring 1) and increasing your subscriber base by 50% in a year growth. Doh!

You really do have to look at the numbers. Their "shrinking market share" isn't so much falling sales as not growing as fast as Apple/Android. RIM's problem is one of falling margins.

Thats partly as they grow in price sensitive parts of the world, and partly because their admin has grown fat - too fat.

But they still consistently sell more phones each quarter than the last, with the exception of one or two quarters last year when they failed to release new phones for around 9 months.

RIM has no choice but to release another Curve. Otherwise they got nothing until Q4.

But I agree...a Curve is a Curve is a Curve!

What I meant is there'd be no new devices until the end of the year, reminiscent of the hardware drought during much of last year.

And where did you get that figure from?

I agree. Their biggest challenge is getting decent apps out for their new OS. No one is gonna go for a shiny new phone with app world in the state it's in at the moment.

that's certainly one of the problems, but even the core functions of the phone has a lot to catch up with its competitor. Apple's SIRI is not even feasible for RIM to replicate. Microsoft has the resource to develop Tellme and its still quite far from SIRI which took years in military development to get to this stage. Apple does have enough capital to keep on buying these technology. Android benefits from Google which monopolizes over pretty much all information in this world, and some of the best developers. Even Windows phone manage to create a brand new UI and benefits from its compatibility with PC.

The iPhone craze really picked up about 2 years ago. What did BB do in the 2 years...used os6 and 7 to update the graphical component of the os and that's pretty much it. Now all other devices have cloud syncing, each of the 3 os have a clear and focused direction on where they are going, yet RIM is just sitting here trying to do everything and doing bad and slow in all of them.

RIM didn't buy QNX last month...they had more than enough time to fix any problem, yet they still can't. Not being able to deliver today's technology today and consistently delivering them tomorrow is fatal for any technology business.

The Playbook's catastrophe is not excuse, Playbook was launched as a non-ready product not because RIM didn't have enough time, it's because they took their time and did nothing with it. Now Playbook 2.0 has reached the functionality of older iPads, that is not a reason for the product to be competitive.

I feel that your analysis is somewhat false. Playbook 2.0 didn't bring the playbook to a regular Ipad, it supersedes the Ipad 2. for example; Look at the email setup for both ipad and playbook. Which one delivers more... the playbook does in my opinion. You can flag messages for one. You can also sync all your social network under the same mail feed. You also can swipe down from the top bezel to see whats currently open while composing an email. The Contact App is worlds better than the Ipads contact also. It sync all your social network along with your regular contact perfectly. Notifications for social as well as contact email can all be done from one place. The calendar App is simply amazing with timeline information right on the actual app itself. the only thing that apple has on RIM right now is the ecosystem and apps. I don't know what RIM is doing about the ecosystem but the apps are starting to channel through to the playbook so its just a matter of time. And how about the multitasking capabilities of the playbook. The Ipad cant spell multitasking like playbook can. That alone gives the playbook an edge on all the competition.

Did RIM miss the mark? Yes, they didn't predicted that the tablet market would take off the way it did. And they let apple shop the putty from the consumers. bad mistake on their part but.... are they working on it.... You bet they are. Soon BB10 will be out and the tables will turn. Based on the leaked pictures of BB10 and a video showing off what RIM has coming in the near future w/o letting the competition see whats coming is a smart move (Think Silicon Valley).

On another note. I've had an Iphone / Ipad and an Android phone / tablets and guess what, got rid of them both so i can get my blackberry back. OS 7 is awesome. I love it. It has everything i need. Even the browser is amazing on OS 7. Everything on it works. Social networking, Weather, Stock info. Camera, Video, Music store, Music, and lets not forget BBM which by the way has changed dramatically since its been released. Other app integrations are working well with BBM and I must say that I am impressed. Oh yeah, No angry Birds for OS 7.. who freaking cares. Its on the Playbook and on a bigger screen to boot.

Heres what is disturbing though, lets look at the US market.... Something is definitely wrong here. Its almost as though they want blackberry to fail here in the US. All of its customers are abandoning ship going to either Iphones or Androids with out even checking out OS 7. Making claims that Blackberry sucks and thats why they are leaving. The best part is that they never even played with a new 9900 or 9800 series phones. Never tasted OS 7. How ingnorant is that. Talking smack about something youve never even touched. I show them my Blackberry 9850 or the 9930 and start going through all the features and they are like "Wow, i didnt know blackberry's could do that" People are Simply stating what others have told to them. No wonder this country is going to Now we have this Jeffries snob saying the value should be $12 per share instead of $15 simply because he said so. And because he said so the stock droped 4.48%. Its become a game of who are we going to fuck now instead of who really has a piece worth talking about. These same People did this with Windows Vista, talking smack w/o even playing with the OS. They do it with the Sony's PS3 again w/o testing the machine. They are even doing it to the new PS Vita which i must say is the most amazing gaming hand held to date. Now they are do it with RIM.

I hope that RIM suceeds just so the so called analysis can look foolish but we all know they will find something wrong with what ever blackberry brings to the table. Its just what they will always do...... sorry!!!

Okay, your Windows Vista argument isn't great because anyone who works in IT knows it was pretty shoddy. Windows 7 is great, Vista not so. And I have moved from a 9780 to an Android phone and my Android is far superior. You read any tech review of a BB product and it always summarises at the end by saying something like "it is okay as far as it goes but you should check out the competition".

It is not all a conspiracy. RIM are genuinly behind. And a unified inbox is a nice feature, but it won't sell tablets. Or phones. HTC phones have unified contacts too. It's no big deal.

The only thing that was shoddy with vista was boot up time and a resources hog. But after services pack 1 it got better. Anyone in the IT world will tell ya the same. 7 is definitely a better OS but vista set the path.. You mentioned 9780 which further validates my point. Try the 9900 series phones and I'm sure you'll change your mind. Even cnet gave it good reviews. There are only two things blackberry needs to do right now. A better ecosystem and more apps and the apps are already showing up. I'm not knocking android. It's a nice OS, Buggy but nice. Alot of force crashed apps though and the fragmentation is out of control. What I didn't like about the android system was the email integration. Sure if you have a Gmail account and us excellent it no problem but what if you don't use a Gmail account. The native client for mail outside of Gmail sucks. It's almost as though Google is trying to force you to use Gmail. Sure I could set it up under Gmail.... Think about that, coming from the cloud to go to upload to another flounder to come to you.... Doesn't make sense to me.... BlackBerry got it right. It took them almost a year but they did it. Didn't give us a half fast email client. They gave the consumer something that's usable. Usable for any email provider that you may use.

Is blackberry behind? That depends on who you ask and which type of consumer are you. The 9900 with OS 7 is rock solid. Ask anyone who has one. Also the playbook is rock solid. Does it need more apps? Definitely... But you cannot deny that 2.0 is solid and just made the playbook a viable player in the market. They just need more apps and like I've been saying, they are starting to show up on playbook. It's just a matter of time. Especially when BB10 OS is released, then we will see blackberry rock the socks off the competition.

Now that I think about it, maybe I should buy some stocks now that this moron has declared the stock is worth 12 per share. Once RIMpire makes its comeback the stock will skyrocket. Do yourself a favor and just look at what TAT is doing with playbook and that is just the start of things to come....

My Android (HTC Sensation XE) is not buggy. Smooth as silk. As it should be with a dual core 1.5ghz processor. The ONLY time I have had an app force close on me is on the Android App Player on the PlayBook. Never on my phone. And the HTC Mail client is fine if you don't have a Gmail account.

And why would I try a 9900 when it has no autofocus on the camera, no Skype video calling, no Beats Audio, hardly any apps and I have to rely on BB's ageing servers to get my email. My playbook has no autofocus on the camera, no Skype video calling, no Beats Audio and hardly an apps.

My HTC offers all of the above. I can skype video call really well on it.

BB are fine until you consider the competition.

Sorry, but the PlayBook is far from being a iPad competitive, at least considering both with the same price. The email application in the playbook is good, but it's far from the best. Integration with Twitter and Facebook is horrible, it takes much time for incoming messages on Facebook or Twitter to be received on the playbook.

The contacts app works, but with many bugs, many times I try to link information from two separate contacts, which were to be grouped into a contact, and the app freezes, sometimes completely locking the playbook, which forces me to restart the tablet (and Playbook takes too long to restart).

As for multitasking, I agree, the Playbook is much better than the iPad, as well as notifications. But moreover, the iPad is better. The integration with the iTunes store is perfect, the number of well done applications is phenomenal, and the games are very good, and Playbook need this. Playbook (and RIM) have a music store, which barely functions outside the U.S. and Canada. The podcast app does not work if you're outside the U.S. or Canada, and even then, the PlayBook's music store does not compete with iTunes, at least in amount of music, movies and TV shows. The expanded functionality with the AirPlay is another strong point (I know it is possible to connect the Playbook on TV via cable, but it's much better to use my AppleTV and play any music or video from my iPad on my TV without me having to get up from the sofa and plug a cable on the PlayBook).

Jack... seriously??? Apple's Siri is a crock of sh*t just like most of Apple's great stuff are crocks of Sh*t sold to dumb people. Witness, in my organization at about this time last year iPads started showing up at meetings, by fall tons of them at meetings along with keyboards here and there. Now.. no iPads at meetings anymore. iPad is not a useful work device.

iPads not functional devices. iPads are another crock of sh*t brought to you by Apple.

Carriers push the iPhone, not Apple. Carriers love the iPhone because it draws millions of customers into signing a new/renewing an old/ contract.

BB etc. don't have that "I want it desperately" feeling among customers in the mass and iPhones are much cheaper with a contract, so that's the key.

The biggest issue for carriers is not exactly only gaining new customers (which is important in the first place of course), but to keep them attached to the carrier. That's why Sprint has dedicated themselves to buy billions of dollars worth of iPhones (next generations included of course).

Comment on the topic itself: I believe it's true as many would probably sell RIMM right now to buy AAPL.

im not a fsan of apple or even the iphone but i do agree. specially how rim has the bold priced so high even on contract if they dropped price a lot and had good deals on it in my opinion mnay more people would buy it. but also rim having a poor backropund on gettingf phones and updates out on time or even ahead of schedule hurts them as well.

No sir. Carriers hate the iPhone. They make way less selling one over any other device. In a perfect carrier world the iPhone would not exist. Unfortunately for them it does and in order to compete/keep customers, you have to have the iPhone

The iPhone in their minds is a necessary evil. I think i have stated that the carriers make more money per phone selling anything but the iphone. Android phones use just as much data. The carriers are not permitted to "skin" the phones the way they want. They can't add any of their "bloatware" they can't do anything to the iPhone. Not even put a company logo on it. If u have read or heard a carrier rep say they like the iPhone they are lying thru their teeth. It all boils down to dollars sir. iPhone's are not that much more expensive than high end phones from other makers yet Apple is taking the lions share of the profit. Whose share do you think it is coming from?

I think the top execs. Hate the iPhone too, but I think the store employee loves it because of the low return rate. The sales people get dinged every time a phone is returned, so you can bet they are pushing iPhones as a safe pick.

Wrong. Apple pushes the iphone, not the carriers. Apple does the advertising. Apple pushes it from their stores.Carriers may have the iphone, but they don't push it. Right now everyone is drinking the Apple Kool-aid. That is a bubble that will burst.
RIM has dropped their prices:I can get a Bold 9900 for $0 on a 3 year.
I have nothing against Apple :I have 2 of their computers. But there are definite drawbacks.
The direction RIM is going is the right one.
That it is taking a while to get there is hardly surprising.
No one has ever done what they are doing. Apple got a standing ovation for replacing one chip. RIM is replacing everything from the ground up while maintaining an existing infrastructure.
Their only mistake was being overly optimistic in their announcements.
That was a previous administration.
Mr.Umiastowski knows what he is talking about having worked in the world of stocks.
I am not so convinced about the rest of you.

I guess you haven't seen the Verizon, AT&T and Sprint commercials that feature the iPhone. (about the only one Sprint runs anymore)

I guess you haven't been in a Carrier's retail store and seen the Apple display right up front.

I know that Carrier may not like Apple and the way they "hold them over a barrel". But they all realize the the iPhone is HOT and is drawing in new customers and is the reason existing customer are upgrading to data plans.

In fairness... sprint isn't pushing the iphone in their commercials.. they are using the iphone to push their unlimited data plan.

The carriers have guaranteed to Apple a certain amount in sales in their agreement with Apple to be able to sell the phone. So you're right they may hate it but they have to push it to meet their contractual obligations.

You are just flat wrong here. The next time you see an ad for the iPhone on TV it'll be from a carrier not Apple. Check. at least in the US.

Different areas maybe? Every iPhone ad I have seen in the US are made by Apple. However every carrier commercial I seen (Verizon, T-mobile, Sprint, Metro PCS, etc) has been of Android phones.

I agree. And furthermore-anytime you go into a Verizon store around here they lead you right over to anything Android and try to steer you away from Iphones and Blackberrys.

The only ad for iphone I've seen is the one where that dorky kid and other talk to siri. Yes no carrier would be dumb enough to make ads that show people how to look like a-holes with their phones, but most ads I see for the iphone are from carriers.

To be fair Android represents the vast majority of the smartphone market so it isn't that surprising that you see android ads.

RIM is still huge in emerging markets and that is why a new Curve is in the works. RIM dropped the ball in the US and will eventually make a comeback, just as Apple has... I am not in any panic over RIM, however I do agree they need to get back to solid innovation and their TAT folks seem to have been doing just that with their confetti stuff... just get the damn things to market and be more BOLD (not more lame) in their advertising... IF they can pull off BB10 phone on time with solid hardware and features, it should be the start they need to return to prominance, although not at the top, but seated in a good perch...

Don't completely disagree.

Just want to share that I'm in Indonesia, RIM's biggest market, and I had 3 friends move to Android and iPhone *using Whatsapp* since beginning of this year. And Whatsapp has grown into something really great - can't even tell why I'm so hooked to BBM anymore, as I can chat with more people on Whatsapp than on BBM since it's cross-platform.

I really think RIM should licence their BBM to another platform...BBM is a solid product... Also they should focus on making only 3 phones, and not make too many versions. A Bold, Curve and Torch with only one model each would suffice, then build them well with great specs. Having less models with a unified OS for both phone and tablet will be of benifit for developers.

RIM missed the right point in time to license BBM. Why should anyone license BBM when there are alternatives like Google Talk or Whatsapp?

Why not the top? Apple was down and out not that long ago:two weeks from total bankruptcy. Literally. Not in the fantasy world of lies and innuendo that surround RIM. The kid at the phone store tells someone that RIM is discontinuing the PlayBook because he is in love with Android. Next thing you know,people are reporting it as fact
Android is all new and shiny with 6 billion choices of the same thing. That'll get old.
If Andy Warhol were alive today, he would have said,"in the future,everyone will be #1 for 15 minutes."
Not that long ago If you had said Apple will be #1, you would have been laughed at.
Everyone has to believe in something,so I believe RIM can be #1.
Haters and skeptics never have to look foolish or appear wrong :they never form an opinion until AFTER something has happened.

"Haters and skeptics never have to look foolish or appear wrong :they never form an opinion until AFTER something has happened." I'm quoting you. Well said...

I'm thinking of slowly picking up shares here and there, on days when big moves (mostly down lately) occur to increase my position.

Lets not forget that RIM owns QNX which runs pretty much car makers infotainment systems. They may be down in the states, but emerging markets are huge and they are still the #1 phone in Canada.

When I first bought into RIM last year the shares were $22, at that time AAPL was $175.......I just don't like investing in companies that have cult followings and are run by Scorpio.

If there is ever a hostile takeover, watch for guys like Jeffries to be right there. It's obvious to me their strategy is to drive the stock price down to a place they want and then start to get aggressive and try to buy the company and split it up.

It's a call with no downside risk. If he's wrong he'll just push it off to next quarter weakness. We know RIM won't show any real positive signs until BBX devices are released so until then they are a very easy target for people that need to fill time, like analysts and bloggers.

He said if rim met expectation this quarter it would probably be short lived and miss the next quarter basically.

So let's see.. if they meet expectation thats not going to be good enough nothing is good for these guys.

Jefferies carries a lot of weight and people listen. It should also be noted that the short position on RIMM is about 10% of float or 53 million shares. Their are vested interests at play but a near historical high in shorts is truly an indicator of where this stock is going short term.

Six months out it could all be different.

Chris is right. The only way for RIM to survive is to bend over, grab their ankles and wait for the carriers to have their way.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion but it is nice to see someone on the CrackBerry team with experience perform some good analysis.

The media used a guy with 12million under management as an "expert source" state that RIM was getting out of the tablet business during a critical period for the new tablet. This kind of media coverage is irresponsible or even malicious. It certainly hurt the company.

Honestly, if you don't have 500 million under management you are not a real source of expertize. The media kept broadcasting this to huge damage to RIM's tablet from a guy that, if properly diversifying his accounts had no more than 1 million bucks in RIM shares. He should not be in national news.

This last call is along the same lines.

I hope RIM delivers. I do a great deal of research on devices and I still believe RIM has a tremendous value proposition. My neighbor is going to Baja today and I got her to trade her iPhone for a BlackBerry. She got the Mexico plan for 3.99 and can call for .09 cents per minute but also she can BBM for free as much as she wants vs. texting that uses roaming.

There are tons of examples that support the BlackBerry as a real viable option to any other device. But the media in the U.S. is not helping. It is scaring people and that never helps.

I'm sticking with RIM because I like their products and the value proposition is excellent.

make a compelling device, sell lots of them and make a lot of money. Their share price will be reflected accordingly in the mealtime they are at the whim of all the short traders.
I am looking forward to their Q4 earnings call, not because of their Q4 results but more for their full year 2013 guidance. If they estimate a forward looking EPS of $4-5, you got a PE of 2.4 - 3 based on Jefferies call, which is ridiculously low.

Don`t get me wrong, I`m a big BB fan!
But there are some things, which are not excusable...
I own a playbook and a 9900 - which should be my communications devices.
But there are barely no native messengers.
About 4 years ago, there were some...

I`m missing: ICQ, Skype, AIM etc.
Especially on my playbook.

Sure, there are other messengers, like IM+ or so, but either you have to buy them or they don`t work as good as the native ones did...

It`s also a kind of sad that I only can use my playbook videochat in combination with a other playbook - not like: From Playbook to PC or so...

Why is there no BB Videochat-software for a PC or MAC or so??

yes I would, I know my daughter would.

makes you wonder why some third party apps won't support the device. Maybe they have an exclusivity contract with another fruit

Yup, you are right!
That contract with the other fruit sucks...

But it would be great, if RIM had it´s own "skype-like" service.
A BB program for a PC and/or Mac which makes it possible to interact with a playbook.

every platform except BB support it...ICQ is popular again in Eastern Europe and some parts of Western Asia for no reason...

Yup, they do...
Blackberry unfort. not!
It was a great time, when there were all those native messengers!

Well, right now RIM is only some 10% from 12.
If they miss this Q stock will probably lose another 20-30% and that will be THE END. Destroyed by almighty Apple. So kevin and Mr. Heins, you should just update your LinkedIn Profiles - start to look for a job

don't be short, RIM is a long term play. Even Jefferies is estimating RIM will make a 2013 profit close to $1 Billion. Street have RIM at around $1.6 Billion. If BB10 is as great we all belive it to be this estimates will be way too low.

btw your comment is very lacking, that's a polite way of saying you're .......

Please come back and post when the stock goes up. Of course shoritng the share or two that you can afford will not lose you much but you'll live up to your real screen name Petrodouche.

If I had the money for the trading costs, I'd be buying a bunch of RIM stock right now. I'm not expecting them to suddenly take first or second place in the smartphone market or to return to their pre-iPhone valuation, but they're going to continue to be profitable and I don't see them staying as low as $15 either.

im a massive blackberry fanboy but my colleague on his iPhone can have all his contact, emails and calendar items sync between his outlook and his phone.

Me, 9790, I have to calendar sync my contact and calendar items using google sync and blah blah blah....

I love BB and I will never change but iphone unfortunatelly simply work

Anyone who pays attention to business side of RIM, knew that another poorly performing quarter, possibly two, we're coming. I have a 9900 and love it, but it isn't competing very well with other platforms, and this is obvious.

As a shareholder, I'd like to see RIM take some of its cash on hand and buy back some of its own stock so it is less exposed to analyst negativity, then focus solely on Bb10 and try to actually speed up its release.

Carriers don't push the iPhone???? What planet are you living on? The next time you see an ad for the iPhone on TV it'll be from a carrier not Apple.

So far all the iPhone commercials that I've seen have been from Apple not the carriers, so I'm not sure which planet you are on. It's been a very long time since I've seen a carrier iPhone ad.

I only have 1 comment. All those companies that were on BlackBerries, and switched to Iphones are all not secure because of the 2 latest "iOS Glitches" LOL.

And there is a current one for Contacts also!

But does this dirve the stock down? NO Does this get huge Press NO! is there an Instant Responce from APPLE NO! is there a FIX?? Not yet! And yet ALL those apps that have Location services on can ALL ACCESS your Personal DATA!

We live in such a Ass backword world that makes No sense sometimes.

And then this Ass wipe comes out sayin that Rim is 12.00 because he wants headlines.

I am really sick and tired of the Media taking Great companies and Driving them into the ground.

"We live in such a Ass backword world that makes No sense sometimes"

It makes perfect sense.

Consider that if you're the worlds largest company, you're probably also the worlds largest spender on advertising.

If you were Apple, with so much at stake, would you leave something as import as PR to chance?

You've got lots of cash. You'd use it to buy your news stories.

Mess up, and your company could lose 50% of its value within a few months. Just ask RIM.

Check out some of the major blog sites like Engadget and BGR. They both have back door relationships with major tech companies. Not suggesting they're biased, but you have to wonder.

Michael ‏ @baltimorebred
@asaunders Crackberry front page comments say you are quitting RIM. I sure hope not. They would be losing a valuable asset.
Alec Saunders ‏ @asaunders Close
@baltimorebred whaaaaaat? I LOVE my job. They'll have to pry my BB and my card key out of dying hands ;)

Whether the report is accurate or not has become a mute point when you connect the dots over the past many quarters. Shorts have had better data and investors await a plan of action from the new board of directors and CEO. What should be major catalysts (developer conventions, tech shows, etc) are followed by an onrush of regurgitated negative analyst and sector news. In RIM's case when you don't stand up against it you end up passively accepting it as true. The new CEO has yet to get his stride when it comes improving RIMs marketing, communication and execution.

New CEO has 26 years of experience and he achieved nothing. Siemens Mobile? Where is it now? He's shorting the hell out of RIM as well as all other shorts. That's obvious.

RIM heading toward its doom is likely regardless of which CEO it is...It was pretty much beyond saving since the end of last year....the gap is way too wide in terms of function and technology...and the market share has dropped so much in the States that it's not a very good communication device anymore due to BBM no longer being a dominant IM. You can't really blame the new CEO...if he does manage to save RIM then he's just amazing...

Bottom line is all RIM has done this year is announce a new OS upgrade which most people other readers here care about and they show up to MWC one of the biggest trade shows for mobile and show nothing. No execution, no strategy, no good products in the pipeline. Selling to emerging markets makes them seem like a budget phone maker. They have no high end premium devices. RIM is done soon guys why not just call a spade a spade.

RIM is in big trouble, it will be two quarters of negative sales until they release BB10 devices and even then, no one knows for sure if the BB10 phones will be a success. Its a game of Russian roulette except all the chambers are full.

financial analysts are liars and theives - everybody knows this. so, what's the big surprise? they lie, and if you believe it - that means you need to improve your lie detector. ____________________________________________________________

in the time of your life, live so that in that good time, there should be no ugliness or death for yourself or for any life that your life touches, seek goodness everywhere

Financial analysts are more than likely in the same weave as meteorologists:

People who get paid whether their predictions for the future are right or wrong.

People need to stop hating on RIM/Blackberry but hopefully some help of more marketig of Blackberry Playbook 2.0 and BB10 we will rise to the top again

Last time I stopped into Verizon it was tough to find a BlackBerry phone. When I finally found my beloved Bold and Curve the associate tried to direct me to a DROID even though I stated only the BB allows me to text fast and if necessary while in motion. The carriers have no respect for alternative or better technology.

Verizon are trying to kill BlackBerry. Their CEO said as much.

They make far more money out of people with Android.

The truth is most humans are fundamentally foolish. We buy what we're told to buy, and then defend our choice with silly arguments.

But the fact is, if you can persuade 50 million people to pay over the odds for an iPhone why wouldn't you.

I went to buy an iPad for my son, saw the price and wondered how Apple have managed to convince (or is it just "con") so many consumers to part with so much money for what is, for most people, of marginal practical value.

It makes no sense, but it is reality.

I agree. How stupid (is the word) can people be to be buying into apples bs. I walked into the store the other day and I don't get it. I have had a iphone for many years (cool for the first week) but thats it. I look at there ipad and it's an oversized what...then the price kills it immediately for me on all there products

Who uses BBs now anyway? Same people who still use cassette walkmans. Most bright top managers quit RIM last year - check it yourself. Mr. Heins is just a mediocrity with 26 years of experience during which he achieved nothing. He was a last man in Siemens Mobile, now RIM. The only person who is truly bright is VP Alec Saunders responsible for developer relations and now he is quitting - hope to Apple or Google.
It is finished.

@Asaunders is not quitting RIM and you did not see that on twitter. Read what you thought you saw again!

Michael ‏ @baltimorebred
@asaunders Crackberry front page comments say you are quitting RIM. I sure hope not. They would be losing a valuable asset.
Alec Saunders ‏ @asaunders
@baltimorebred whaaaaaat? I LOVE my job. They'll have to pry my BB and my card key out of dying hands ;)


Seriously don't blame Petrodouche for being on here BLAME CRACKBERRY for not putting vote buttons so him and his ilk can be voted to oblivion.

I'm seriously sick of CRACKBERRY.



"Most bright top managers quit RIM last year"

You have to be joking. Most of the so-called "bright managers" that left RIM were cast off, and with good reason. There are a couple of notable exceptions who were victims of RIM's revised approach to developers.

And Alec Saunders is a nice guy, but buzz phrazes don't make it easier to code. And alienating 10's of thousands of Java developers wasn't a great move - even if we can understand why.

Thorsten Heins has 20+ years of experience in large corporation politics. He's exactly the kind of guy needed to head a company like RIM. Jim Balsillie had zero experience of other large corporations, and has been led down the path by his senior leadership.

Now the question is who killed once a great Co.? No, it was not Heins. It's Lazaridis and Balsillie. Both are very bright but... Arrogance and self complacency.
I have been to MWC congress two days ago - and there indeed was a line of developers for RIM conference but everybody just wanted a FREE PB they did not care about RIM. Some of them could not code at all. RIM could as well just offer every developer who show up 200-300 USD the result would have been the same. It is pathetic. Now Windows 8 is coming and they will do their coup de grace.

Scale down buying is usually a painful exercise. For RIMM there will be plenty of time to buy the stock if it's undervalued as we think.. You will know when it's time to buy when you start to hear your friends say "hey, did you see the new BlackBerry..." more often than they do now.

RIM and Blackberry will survive! They have the best fan base meaning their consumers are loyal and LOVE the platform, not just the hardware and specs. I think most Blackberry users are hanging in there because they know Blackberry's potential and are just waiting for the ULTIMATE DEVICE which will keep users on this platform and attract others. It can only get better, just a matter of patience...


I agree that carrier support is key for RIM's success. My only issue is the cost to the carriers for upgrading their BIS servers to accommodate BB10 phones as well as the PlayBook. A few years ago when RIM was on top, upgrading was a no-brained since the volume of phones was there to justify the cost of infrastructure upgrade. But with the dramatically lower number of US users, the upgrade might become a trickier sell for RIM.

Here's the best thing I did - only wished I did it sooner with my stock portfolio:

Dumped all my RIM and other loosing stocks....bought Apple @ $440 last month....

Today have made back all I lost with RIM and now have a profit.

I will ride the Apple wave for as long as I can - especially now that there is talk of Dividends and Stock Splits.

Guys - worst thing you can do is buy with emotions....I did with RIM and learned the hard way.

Always liked Blackberry - Have a 9780 and Playbook but I get my 4S next Friday and will dump my Playbook on Kijiji - salvage what I can and by a Ipad X....

This is based on my experience .....yours might be different - Good Luck to all !!

Lets see,,,

Lets bring out a new PlayBook 1.5 ghz dual core 7" tablet about the same time
as Apple lets loose with an IPad Quad core and a new 7" tablet.

IOS5 vs new BB10?

RIM marketing vs Apple marketing? ("Be Bold" blows big time BTW)

RIMs pull vs Apples strong arm with carrriers?

Medias current ideas on Apple vs RIM?

RIMs ability to shoot itself in the foot vs Apples?

Who has more cash on hand to price drop their products the longest?

Does the world love an underdog? I don't think it is on TV anymore.


My guess is Q4 sales quantities will be fine. The new phones were released right at the end of Q3. Sales values is a different question.

Whether Q1 2013 is as good is a different question.

And by the way, $12 is significantly less than book value, so I think you'd see considerable buy back and acquisition by the value folks who've got involved in RIM.

The most recent iPhone 4S commercials, and even the iPad2 commercials I've seen have been launched directly by Apple, not by the carriers. They've been promoting Siri and the 'magical experience of rediscovery' for the iPad 2. Haven't seen any Verizon or Sprint commercials for the iPhone 4S since they first secured the opening contracts last year.

Yes, Carriers hate the iPhone as a cost factor, which is why US Cellular was offered but didn't accept (6th largest in the US). If they did love the iPhone so much, why didn't they jump in BEFORE the 4S arrived and jump on the momentum that brought AT&T back?

I agree that BB is not doing all that well in the States here, and that yes they have been focusing more on emerging international markets...they've said just as much themselves, but they aren't tanking to the point of bankruptcy or selling themselves like I keep hearing every other day from people who read one line from one article on a tech site... Very annoying that people don't read full articles or double check sources.

I'm with the others that are waiting on BB10 to see what they are going to do going forward. I've fiddled with the iPhone before from way back at the 3G up to the current 4S model, as well as several varying Androids (Desire, Galaxy S, Electrify to name a few) and have always come back to the BB for it's keyboard and secure email for work. Every person has their own opinion and right to like their choice of smartphone, but coming here strictly to bash and cry a vendor a flop (or dead) really isn't showing anything...

This guys really earns his salary, doesn't he?

RIM is mission on so much talent here on CB. If they hired Kevin for CMO and Chris Umiastowski as, hmm, Chief Wall Street Defence Officer, I am quite sure things would start to turn.

But then again they are turning. The new PB ads show a lot of promisse. If they can improve on those for the BB10 promotion, they should be more than fine.

Ok, let's talk some numbers. Acc to last Q only some 25% of revenue was derived from the US down from more than 70% full two years ago. If you look at statistics of US BB usage you can see that it's down to 5% only and is lower with every day. Simbian is like 2% and WP is already 1% - that is minuscule. US is as Nabokov pointed out once is obsessed with "glittering gadgetry" and it was like this for the last 100 years or so.
So yes, US customers need BB10, BB 5,6,7 is ancient and boring for most of them - proof? Check statcounter again.
But what about regions which generate other 75% of revenue? South Africa, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, UAE, Venezuela, Columbia, Carribean countries etc etc - do you really think they really need BB10? Most of BB phones sold here are low cost low margin ones with BB5, BB6 and much less BB7 and people are perfectly fine with it. Cultures are very different from the US, income are very different as well.
Moreover, as US share is almost nonexistent now - I'm sure that this Q US will constitute even less that 25% in total rev - maybe 20 or even less.
Now what will BB10 will accomplish for regions who will generate more than 85% of RIM total rev by the time BB10 becomes available?
Not a lot. They are perfectly fine with even BB5 as said earlier.
And BB10 in the US? Well, almost everybody who wanted to quit BB has already done so and there are mostly hardcore fans left, they will stick to it as long as RIM's alive.
And others who are mostly already smartphone users - iOS/Android -what about them? Do you really think they will start migrating to the BB10? The answer is no.
BB10 will basically offer what PB offers now but with more visual gimmicks - Cascades etc. but APPS - not there - there will be no Netflix, Kindle, Hulu - you name it.
What's the point of leaving well rooted ecosystem and jump to the BB10 when there the same problem as with the PB - lack of MAJOR apps?
Things are not that easy - just make BB10 on time and everything will be back to normal. No.

You've already lost a lot of credibility here with Alex Saunders leaving RIM call above....and then going hahaha on the news.

BB10 may give RIM a winning touch interface smartphone something it has yet to accomplish. Other wildcards may be giving them something better than Skype, Netflix, Kindle, Hulu, etc. Prior demographics of BlackBerry users show they have an above average net worth and income so app vendors moving to the platform will continue to parlay their success. If Netflix and others find it repulsive to earn money from RIMs 75 million and growing subscriber base either RIM or another company can build something to fill the void.

Do us all a favour Petroucho and run along now!

I hope the guys in RIM are hearing this. They are well aware that they will literally starve if they don't deliver BB10. They must need some sort of sustainability plan or something?!!!

As for BB10, can't they show some sort of software preview or something ? Just to ease the stakeholders.

The rejigged board and management structure has yet to hold an investor conference to apprise shareholders of their vision going forward. At what point in time, does such a thing become long overdue?

I'm sure RIM knows what they are facing. They are working their butts off i'm sure, so i'm gonna sit tight with my #BlackBerry loving arse and wait for my goodies!! Let's go RIMPIRE!!

I hope I'm wrong but I think its too late for RIM. I love my Touch 9850, other than the crappy keyboard, but Android and Appple are the clear winners. All this talk about security and email, the average person doesn't care about all that. They want apps and BB has a pretty sorry selection. I have all the apps I want and need, but it seems that most people want a bunch of stupid useless apps to play with. Like I said, I really hope I'm wrong, but the delay of BB10 really made me think about switching.

"They want apps and BB has a pretty sorry selection"

Really? How many apps do you want. There are around 60,000 apps for BlackBerry, and if you did nothing else in your life but download apps, you'd still be working on TODAYS apps in 20 years time.

The desire for App quantity was a clever marketing strategy developed by Apple to differentiate what was really quite poor hardware (except for the display) from the rest of the market. There are key market segments that want apps, but the majority of people can barely use their phones features as it is.

Sorry but it sounds like you're just repeating propagange you've seen printed.

If there's some app you need that isn't currently available post it and let us know.

One item no analyst has pointed out (please correct me if I'm wrong) is the playbook write down of 485 million which translates to 85 cents a share.

So if rim has since sold those playbooks, (which they took the write down for) then they should have 85 cents, from playbook sales, plus phones sales of (let's use that idiot from Jeffries number) 63 cents which equals $1.48 a share

I'm I missing something?

I'm from indonesia, and I'm well aware that the BB-craze is only happening in Jakarta (the capital city), but not so well elsewhere: (many outside the cities do not even take it seriously, as the carriers here rarely air blackberry-related stuff over TV commercials).

Yes it is social suicide not to have a blackberry, but only in Jakarta (where it used to be seen as a status symbol). Indonesians love to text and communicate (which explains that it is Facebook's 2nd largest market), which also explained RIM's great rise here. But now I'm not sure. Texting via Facebook is now free and unlimited via some cellular plans here.

( By the way, 8 out of 10 blackberry users I've met here do not even know that blackberry can open emails. They only use BBM to keep up with friends as a social network service, and BIS for Facebook.)

RIM is being attacked on all sides.

Good article Chris and I would like to add that based on my preliminary survey results I believe that Jeffries has a 50/50 chance of being correct :-P

Jeffries downgraded RIMM because they need to recover some of there money they lost when they sold short at $12. Or they want to buy the stock at a lower price. These companies only come out with these comments to benefit there company or there clients. They want to suck the dumb person in that watches TV and reads the newspaper to get there stock picks from.

I hope the person who said in here they bought the AAPL stocks looked at a chart before they bought. The stock is supported by thin air. Time to take some profits. Oh but of course I did read today they were going to $1000.00. I think some of the big players want you to buy there AAPL stock from them.

Regardless of where the RIMM share price "should" be, I am sure this is exactly it. Anybody who hasn't understood the revelations since 2007 about what was going on in the casino investing sector, is a mark who is going to lose money as the banks frantically try to recover their losses. If a share tipster really believed that a stock would go down by 20%, the answer is not to tell the public but to short. It would be a secret worth far more while it remained secret. So in this case it's clear someone has a big short position and is panicking.
The state of the world mobile phone market is irrelevant. BB may be about to tank or recover. But you won't find out from a "stock analyst", any more than a Saab salesman with a single new car on the forecourt would have told you a couple of months ago that Saab was about to go bust.

The simple game has always been to chase the middle class money around from one tizzy to the next as you milk them of their money going up and coming back down.

Apple stock price will fall as their products drop out of style and something better garnishes more attention. The stock descent will be incredible due to the price. When it starts it will be amazing to watch.

Alot of talk about Apple hitting $1000 a share.....

Thier market share is still very small and new products coming out within days (Ipad 3) unlike Rim which still has to demo a working BB10 Phone!

IPad 3, is not a new product.

BB10 is a new product, new OS and hardware.

Disclosure, I own shares in Apple and RIM

To those who think they're RIM dominating in emerging markets, etc ... I live in Brazil, and honestly, RIM don't give a fuck about Brazil and the potential consumer market here.

The only inexpensive device that they sell here without subsidies is a Curve from two years ago, priced as low-end Androids, that are selling a LOT more. Then they have a Curve from last year, which is sold for the same price as the iPhone 3GS and some mid-end Androids, and, surprisingly, doesn't sell nothing. The bold and torch are more expensive than the iPhone 4S and top Androids, and this makes no sense.

Add the fact that Blackberries have a voice and data plan more expensive than the data-and-voice plans offered for the iPhone and Androids, and you see why RIM is not growing in emerging markets (or at least here in Brazil).

Also analyzing other point: I am a college student. At this point, the purchasing power of me and my friends is not that great, but we all have smartphones or we're in the process of buying one. None of my friends is interested in buying a Blackberry. All they want is to buy an iPhone or an Android. The one who has a Blackberry is me, and I'll buy an Android later this month, because the benefits of the Blackberry over the others don't exist, at least for me. The screen of the Blackberry is too small to do anything, no friend of mine uses BBM, and the fact that I have to pay more for a data plan equivalent to what my friends have on their smartphones and pay less is an strong argument for changing to another platform.

We are talking about stock here and from an investor's perspective Rimm is dying.
They have managed to produce enough negative news on regular basis to drive themselves to a predicament where even a good quality product is going to be ill perceived.
Stock market - is not about what is really happening but rather about the possibilities, the potential, the growth.
...and what do we have? OS10 doesn't yet exist, the chip that will run it is not yet available and large corporations switching from blackberries to iPhones - Brilliant!!! lets invest some money here as the new CEO instills that super strong feeling of the man in charge with a vision!
Get real, things are going to get uglier.

You may be right. But exactly the same was being said about Apple in 1999.
Apple products in 1999-2001 were such unadulterated crap that my small company threw out the lot and migrated to IBM PCs. It just wasn't worth the pain.
BB products in 2012 are not nearly as bad as Apple products were in 2000, relatively speaking. They work, and work well. But moving over to a new OS is a big move. It took Apple several years, during which they had to support old applications in a virtual OS, just as BB is having to run Android apps on an Android VM.
There is nothing at all to say the rest of the Apple story will pan out, of course. RIM may well fail. My guess is that if they succeed, it will be because of security, still the weak point of iOS and Android. Microsoft went through terrible pain when they had to start to upgrade security to Unix standards following the many scandals with Win 98 and 2000.

Earnings per share at current price is excellent.
RIMM needs to fill Marketing position fast! That should be top priority.
(And get Desktop Manager for OS2 released)!

All I have to say is I love my BlackBerry devices and fully intend to support RIM till it dies or thrives! I have high hopes that RIM will make a full come back! I do not want to get into the DROID game where everyone is chasing the next best thing week to week.. And I definitely don't like being told what I can and can't do with my phone like Apple. So I will enjoy my BB and all of my freedoms as such. No matter who you are you have to admit there is something about a BlackBerry that has most keeping an eye on them. Some hate to admit they admire what we have and some truly hate BlackBerry. I still enjoy watching non-BB fans taking time to come on here and bash RIM. I have been through the Storm 9530 and the Storm 9550 and now proudly own a Torch 9850 and a 64GB PlayBook, I haven't been able to put any of them down. I also haven't experienced anything with DROID or IOS to make me consider moving to either. RIM I'm routing for you!