Here’s what happens to BlackBerry on November 4th

By Chris Umiastowski on 31 Oct 2013 12:57 pm EDT

It has nearly been 6 weeks since BlackBerry’s board of directors entered into an agreement with a consortium of investors led by Fairfax Financial. As a reminder, here is what that agreement said in plain English:

  • They take BlackBerry private for $9 per share. The general agreement is for Fairfax, and its partner investors, to take BlackBerry off the public market by purchasing all shares it doesn’t already own for $9 cash. This means regular shareholders (like me) trade the shares for cash, and BlackBerry would cease to trade on a stock exchange. It would become a private Canadian technology corporation.
  • The offer was not fully funded at the time. Fairfax was seeking funding from BoA Merrill Lynch, and BMO Capital Markets. Without funding, Fairfax can’t complete this deal. One of Canada’s largest pension plans, AIMCO has already gone on record stating that they aren’t participating in any deal.
  • There is a due diligence period. Fairfax is entitled to conduct due diligence before firming up its offer. The due diligence is expected to be complete by November 4th, which is Monday. But there is no hard and fast rule saying anything has to be done by then.
  • BlackBerry can shop itself to other buyers during the due diligence period. The board of directors would not be doing its fiduciary duty if it didn’t try to get he highest possible price for the stock. We’ve seen hits of interest from other organizations and people. These include private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, co-founder of RIM Mike Lazaridis, and of course the latest gossip ... Facebook (or for that matter any technology company that may benefit from owning BlackBerry).

So what actually happens on November 4th?

We don’t know what’s going to happen, but there are a number of possibilities. Let’s run through them.

First,  Fairfax could firm up its deal by announcing it is satisfied with due diligence and has secured the necessary funding. This is a very real possibility, considering how vocal Prem Watsa has been in the press about his seriousness in taking BlackBerry private.

Fairfax could also amend the terms of its deal. If nobody else is interested in bidding, it doesn’t seem like they need to pony up $9 per share. The stock is trading well under that price, and investors like Fairfax are not in the business of charity or “saving” companies. They’re in the business of making money.

Another one of the bidders could also step up to the plate and make an offer to the board of directors. If and when this happens, we’ll hear about it because the competing bidder would certainly disclose its offer, and attempt to convince investors that the offer is superior. Standard stuff. Given the explosion in cross-platform BBM users we’ve seen in the last week it’s possible that somebody will see BlackBerry as more valuable now. Certainly the stock market doesn’t seem to think so, though.

We could also see some sort of deal crystallize sooner, as in today, tomorrow, or sometime over the weekend. Or nothing could happen. That’s another real possibility. There is no firm rule that says Fairfax has to conclude due diligence by November 4th. We’ve been getting very used to all things BlackBerry related being late. Perhaps a go-private transaction gets delayed too. Perhaps the board of directors of BlackBerry pushes out the finalization of a firm deal in order to give interested bidders more time, in light of the successful BBM rollout.

Those are the most likely possibilities for Thursday. If you had to make a bet, which option  would you bet on? 

Reader comments

Here’s what happens to BlackBerry on November 4th


My vote is for Prem Watsa going through with the purchase.

There's enough equity in the corporation to leverage, and he could borrow the money in a heartbeat. My guess is he has been seeking investors so that the leveraged amount doesn't have to be a burden to BlackBerry.

Question is will he be able to buy enough shares to take the company private? So far smaller BBRY holders have shown a fairly emotional tie to the company and may rather see their investment drift to obscurity rather than sell at a price they firmly believe is too low.

So you want Blackberry to sell itself for less than tangible book value, that mplies value of BBM, BB 10, BES 10, MDM all put together is worth less than ZERO? That Blackberry is a worthless company if you take out the cash and real estate?

Has someone offered more than $9?

You're making the classic mistake of assuming something is worth the value you believe, rather than the value someone will actually pay.

There have been six weeks for potential purchasers to buy BlackBerry at above $9 and so far not one has made an offer. In other words they're valuing the company at less than its asset value (they clearly don't believe the companies books).

It really doesn't matter what we think the company is worth. If the offer is on the table at $9 a share then that is what it is worth.

Prem Watsa has played this very well. He valued the company at $9 when the price was clearly falling to well below that number, and in doing so effectively pushed the price outside the reach of anyone looking to buy to slice up the company.

Because no one piece is worth $9 a share and therefore no one has bought BBRY to slice off a piece and sell the rest.

If you don't accept $9 you won't get anywhere near that amount and eventually BBRY will be sold to asset strippers at $6 or less. Six weeks is more than enough for other companies to decide whether they want to take on a piece of BBRY at above $9. And so far not one has decided to do that.

I agree with you that BBRY is worth than $9 a share. But it really doesn't matter what we think unless we have the cash to buy the company.

Well, I think you nailed it there. Well reasoned. I'll take $9, but I would like it if an opt in to the private buy out group was available. If they could have a minority collective of small shareholders who opt in to the buying group and agree to be bound by the majority owner decisions as long as they are equally treated, (silent partner so too speak) so we could go along for the ride, for better or for worse. Crowd funding a portion of a private buyout.

Swiped with one thumb from the virtual keyboard of my awesome Z10!

In Canada I believe there is a limit of 300 holders of shares in a private company.

The only other option might be to pool shares into a legal entity of some kind where bonds are given in exchange for shares redeemable on a future BBRY IPO. I've no idea if that is even legal.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking, one legal entity for the group of small shareholders so that they would be legally bound to act as one, and even that the majority partner would have all decision making authority over the one legal entity, as long as all decisions apply to all shares of the partnership to an equal extent. I'm sure it could be done legally, it just sounds too potentially messy and complicated to organize bun the first place compared to making a few phone calls to big money guys.

Swiped with one thumb from the virtual keyboard of my awesome Z10!

I would just hope that the Blackberry brand and hardware products continue to be available to consumers and people start buying blackberry phones again. This, from a very satisfied and die-hard Q10 fan!

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Me too - hope Prem can pull it off. And if he doesn't lower his bid, which he should, shareholders should be thrilled. The stock is not going north anytime soon under the current set of circumstances.

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Shareholders will not be "thrilled" at $9, and while I'd hold my nose and take the deal, I'm not sure that others (like Mike L) will be so willing.

If this deal falls through, I don't have a big problem with it.

My opine is based on current market cap only. Could the cap rebound? Sure. But it could also plunge as well.

Sometimes investors need to take the haircut and move along.

I feel bad for all the longs, but I have lost my share on the holds as well.

If I was a current shareholder I would take the money and run. And depending on your country of domicile maybe you can take the loss or a loss carryover.

As much as I hate losing money on investments, I hate giving it to Uncle Sam even more. He gets enough of my money though my ordinary income.

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Unless there are competing bids, Fairfax deal will go through. Over 60% of BBRY shares are owned by big institutions like the big banks. Given the choice, wouldn't they commit their shares to join the private group than to sell the shares for less than book value and realise a big loss. They are long term investors and can wait out the transition. It doesn't take much for Prem to find enough new investors and borrow a little to acquire the rest.

You're assuming big institutions are all joining the "private group". That is not the case here.

I imagine Watsa first contacts would have been the other major investors. If they're still holding BBRY after the last few years they must be committed to the cause (or realise the money they've made on loaning to shorters is about to end).

So why not join the "private group". Not that much to lose (because the saleable assets are probably worth the current value) and everything to gain.

It would be great if FB would invest say 500M to 1Billion in the company and keep it public.

They need a stronger position on the mobile market, a partnership with BBRY would ensure it.

They've been pushing for their own platform for a while, and are obviously not thrilled with how Google is dealing with them. They pushed an update that allowed Facebook to bypass the Play Store as far as updates are concerned, and Google changed the terms of service on them, forcing apps to go through the Play Store for updates.

Seems like they're trying to get away from Android, they just don't have any other option.

Not sure BlackBerry would be a good fit, but maybe they just want to keep their options open?

I agree. Facebook could finally release a "Facebook " phone. Also, despite being the social media giants they are, Facebook is not everywhere; southeast Asia. South America and the Middle East fir example. BlackBerry and BBM just happen to be prominent in those locations, though.

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It's a perfect fit. BBM can work on a desktop. BBM channels would compliment Facebook pages perfectly. So Facebook chat becomes BBM and your always hooked in. They gain growth for more ads and creating a stronger link to Facebook by users. Possibly adding users. Toss in a real Facebook phone and sellable assets decreasing the cost.

A strong partner like FB would ensure the cash they need to completed transition while maintaining R&D, it would bring a fresh new appeal to the BBRY brand and surely increase device sales. It would bring Instagram and followed by other top apps and stop the BBRY's dead news but hopefully it will force a radical change of management. I think the german guy failed and he was still too close to mike lazaridis. BBRY need new and outsider blood in the management team and surely brand new marketing team made of under 35's super talented people.

All I'll say is HTC First. FB backed and not exactly the resounding success you paint a picture of.

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HTC is Android - FB needs a different mobile strategy from Android. If BBRY is not the solution then they will have to do something like Amazon did.

I know it as android. My point was it isn't a 'all fb touches turns to gold' situation.

Like I said though, half a billion is kinda nothing.

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It's not just about the money, it's the confidence that would bring. BBRY is losing a lot even in the enterprise business now too because people are not sure it will be in the market in one year. Plus I wasnt aware that FB actually made an investment in HTC?

I never said they did make an investment. I said backed. As in the put their name behind it.

Extremely different things.

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Then we're talking about two different things completely, I'm talking about FB actually investing in BBRY and forming a partnership. Not a marketing campaign for a phone.

What BlackBerry needs desperately right now is STABILITY. With a serious partnership like this, it sends a message to the rest of the world that they're staying in business.

Right now that's more valuable than their cash, even.

I want no part of a FB BB consortium. The most secure devices vs. the worlds biggest privacy infringer. .. no thanks.

What is the benefit to BB owners/users like myself? I want no part of FB and that JA that "owns" FB.

If FB buys BB I am out that day, I'll have nothing to do with it.

Going private allows BBRY to build itself again without having to answer to hostile shareholders who want quick profits and less R&D - short term gains rather than long term growth.

That sort of thing happens. We had a German steel company build where I live in the USA. Since completion of the plant, they have cut their work force by 50%.

That sucks. U.S is so big compared to Canada looked what happened to ATI, bought by AMD. We lost Nortel Networks which was a leader in networks and with LTE development. Hopefully BlackBerry can stay Canadian and continue on as a niche company.

We are big, and there are a lot of jobs and opportunities here. Sadly, we are also getting lazy and people would rather take an unemployment check than take a job that is "beneath" them.

Idk about jobs and opportunities. Free Trade is going to really hurt Canadian workers, especially the low middle class. The wages will all stay stagnant, just like what happened with NAFTA. EU free trade deal is the worst thing that has ever happened to Canada. It only benifits corporations and increases poverty.


"EU free trade deal is the worst thing that has ever happened to Canada"

You're joking right? EU workers get more vacation, better employment rights, shorter working weeks, and a host of other benefits North Americans can only dream of. Even their minimum wages are higher. Employment costs in Europe are considerably higher and so Canada should be more competitive.

Wages are stagnant because every second thing you see is made in China where wages are a fraction of the US and Canada, and most services are being offshored to India - same deal with wages.

We're being hoodwinked by corporations but it won't last forever.

NAFTA is one of the greatest things to happen to this country. An EU free trade is important and although it will destroy Canadian dairy, it's also a huge injection of dollars both ways.

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Are Canadian dairy producers lacking in confidence so much they don't want to export to a market of 800 million? They see the deal too negatively.

I here you on that. Self entitlement attitudes are running rampid in the west. It's the worst thing for a country.

Trolls should be forced to use BB10!

They should get bought out with with sales experience like that apple guy they where talking about. Forget Facebook forget Google. BlackBerry is a name everyone knows. Don't change the name keep it simple. Advance the os more and more. I think BBM should of stayed only for blackberry. It was a blackberry thing. Imessage is unique because it's only for iphones.

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If Fairfax doesn't go through the share price will plummet.
There will likely be another offer, but far lower than the current Fairfax offer.

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Curious about what happens but would you say that regardless of what happens, BBRY will be out of the hardware market?

The security they provide comes from having an end to end solution starting from the hardware to BES and the NOC. Unless they can license a reference design to other companies so they can do what a BlackBerry handset can do interacting with those assets and make money at it, then handsets are an important part of their business model, despite what analysts say.

Swiped with one thumb from the virtual keyboard of my awesome Z10!

Then BBRY announces that they've rejected all offers and decided that it's prepared to push forward with the 3rd phase of it's transformation plan. A few more layoffs and sales of property, the new leaner BBRY with it's still substantial pile of cash announce a joint partnership with one of the tech companies in exchange for some long-term debt to get the cash pile up over 5 Billion so that it can execute it's strategy. This may cause the stock to tank however.. Just my guess.

How about, if this deal with Fairfax dies, we leave BlackBerry as is, have a motion to remove CEO & CMO (even if means paying them out) & replace them with capable leaders?
Almost any deal that happens will wipe out BlackBerry as it is today which could be fine for a buyer but not us.
There has to be someone out there who can lead a return to profitable as BlackBerry sits today as a company & not torn apart.

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BlackBerry announces a secure, qnx based desktop OS managed through BES 10, and that the entire US government is adopting it.

Wall st loves the news, stock skyrockets. BlackBerry is on top again.

. Ow! Damn, i was dreaming...

I think the Fairfax deal is the most tangible at this point.

I'm not up to speed on my news nor do I know anything about owning a company, but didn't BlackBerry have billions in the bank? If this the the case, could BlackBerry simply buy itself and go private? I know this would leave $0 operating money, but just a thought I had. Probably not very smart a comment, but hey if I didn't share it, I'd never know how stupid ;).

Posted via CB10 on my Z10

BlackBerry cannot afford itself. The roughly 2.5 billion in the bank is at least 2 billion short, and it would leave the company with no cash to fund ongoing operations. BlackBerry would have to borrow to make payroll and meet it's obligations to suppliers. It would start the slippery slope towards oblivion. Cannot be done.

For me this is all part for a show, it's just a distractions to have BlackBerry to buy some time to reposition itself back to the game. It will stay public, as my crystal ball says. Lol

#IChooseBlackBerry10 | Posted via My BlackBerry Q10 (SQN 100-3 v. - Powered by Globe Telecom Philippines

Pw said openly that financing is not problem and he is not flip flop. He has what needs and that is not his firm who has 28 years of record of baking out

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My prediction is that another large player steps up and provides additional investment to partner with Fairfax to take private. Could maybe be a consortium of partners (e.g. facebook, Lenovo, LG, sony) where they get access to blackberry services/products to use in their own products, etc... might not be possible but something like that would be my preference. I go back to the original goal, which is to accelerate scale of bb10. I dunno... will be exciting to see !!!

Thanks for wasting 5 minutes of my time reading an article that tells me "We don't know what's gonna happen, but we're posting about it anyway..." Way to post something new...great work. Keep it up

Wow, tough crowd! He laid out the analysis. You take it and draw your own conclusions. Or does that seem like too much work?

Swiped with one thumb from the virtual keyboard of my awesome Z10!

First off, I'm one person...not a crowd. Secondly, There is little fact and analysis and an overwhelming amount of speculation from someone "Armchair CEO-ing it" as a friend so succinctly pointed out many of us "media types" tend to do...

I worked more trying to understand the nature of your comment than the fact that this article was pointless...

If he told you what was going to happen with BBRY then he would be a liar... nobody knows... even the Wall Street scum that pushed BBRY below $8.00 at the close today...

Was I asking for that? I was asking for nothing. No article rather than rubbish like this. It pains me to troll because I generally keep quiet, but this is just absurd.

I thought it was a good article. It listed out in plain english what possible outcomes to look for this monday. There are people that benefit from these articles so I wouldn't say they're rubbish.

If Fairfax doesn't reaffirm the $9 offer, i.e. if they pull it or ask for more time, the stock is going to drop through the floor.

Potential customers are on hold waiting for the outcome of this transaction. Delaying it just pushes them on to competitors products. Of course, BlackBerry seems to be myopic about that possibility.

I've got my fingers crossed on the Fairfax deal. I absolutely do not want to see BlackBerry wind up in Chinese hands, or any hands outside of Canada for that matter.

Sent from my BlackBerry Z30

I bought a lot of shares at 11.00 and frankly i vote against the deal. At 9.00. The company can be liquidated for at least 12.00
BlackBerry can sell BBM their real estate their patents. Qnx their inventory. They can easily get 7billion. I don't need Fairfax to buy the company at 4.7 b and quickly sell off the parts for 7 or 8 billion and screw all the other shareholders who have stuck buy blackberry and most of users. It's just not legal and there would be countless lawsuits.

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Turn it down and you'll get a lot less than $9.

The board wouldn't have approved the offer if they thought they had a chance of saving the company as a public corporation.

If the deal is rejected by shareholders, the price will be shorted to extinction, the company will be sold for peanuts, and we'll get next to nothing for our shares.

$9 is a fair deal from Watsa. After the last earnings call he could have stepped back and let the price continue to be shorted lower, but he jumped in and stopped a complete crash of the stock.

If BBRY has to go through another earnings call it will end up a penny stock.

I don't agree. Some insiders have convinced the BoD that they cannot survive and so they haven't even tried.
Now with BBM being relatively successful, their decision to define their customer base as people who do not care to play games on their phones, and their huge tax refund coming up, they are getting closer and closer to breaking even.
They have to try harder to unload their Z10 inventory by dumping them in Canada and the US?
Once they sell them all, they will be in better financial shape.

"Some insiders have convinced the BoD that they cannot survive and so they haven't even tried"

Back in July BlackBerry fired its US Managing Director and subsequently laid off much of its US sales force. You think maybe that's because no carrier was supporting the BlackBerry 10 range? BlackBerry 10 devices are perfectly good but relatively few people have actually bought the devices because the carriers would rather sell you an iPhone - often even if you ask for a BlackBerry!

Have you noticed AT&T and T-Mobile aren't selling the Z30? Or that in Canada Rogers won't sell you the device in store?

You get an idea of how difficult it is for BlackBerry to sell phones in the US when for the first time ever they now sell GSM type phones on their shopblackberry web site. Clearly none of the carriers are interested.

Without carrier advertising support it is very difficult for a manufacturer to generate sufficient demand to sell devices, especially when you have to contend with the marketing might of Apple and Samsung.

BBM is successful, but as yet there is no revenue stream. The big question is whether BlackBerry will have time to generate revenue from the product before they run out of cash.

Note that revenues have crashed to almost 20% of even their 2011 values. If you deduct service revenues from the $1.5 billion last quarter, you're left with really low numbers of hardware sales - for both BB7 and BB10 devices.

Nothing I've seen suggests that number is going to change for the better in the next quarter.

Personally I hope for the sake of the BlackBerry brand there is no next quarterly report because the company is private. If that doesn't happen, I'm afraid they're doomed - inventory dump or otherwise.

They have to start controlling the media message out there and they can't do that while they have to announce massive losses every quarter. As a private company they don't have to publicise their accounts. Next quarter will be a huge loss because of the $400 million restructuring charge, and that will be so damaging the stock price could be decimated.

I love my BlackBerry device and believe it's one of the best devices on the market, but I'm afraid they did too little too late. In fact the focus on BB10 has been a strategic disaster because they produced no devices for a year while their competitors stole market share. BlackBerry OS 10.2 is starting to look more like what we would have expected at launch. Without a structural change it won't be enough to save the brand.

Absolutely. Liquidate the company and reinvent itself as something that can actually compete. It cannot compete now.

1.5% market share is not competing... it is a rounding error.

Posted via CB10

BlackBerry us gonna get sold 100%. Now or later. Heins is set to become uberwealthy with the sale of BlackBerry. He won't go any other way.

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He gets nothing if he remains as CEO with the private corporation on the same terms.

And the further the stock price slips down the less he gets. His payout is already half the earlier published amount.

The unique thing about Blackberry is no news or information is ever set in stone until the day after it happens.

Posted via CB10

Or this new EU agreement has changed foreign ownership restrictions and a rather large European firm is considering a bid. Anyone know anything about the EU agreement that could confirm or deny this theory?

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Canada knew what it was about. The EU agreement only affects takeovers of $1.5 billion or less.

And anyway, the treaty is far from being law. They're still negotiating the details. It will probably be a couple of years before it's enacted in full.

Ya, Fairfax might be out to just 'make money', but that will not simply be the only motive at the expense of BlackBerry as a company. They're not out simply to make money and destroy the company. They clearly want to have BlackBerry as their company, and clearly that's not a bid to just make quick cash. LOL, of course that want to make money, but that's not their sole purpose in bidding g for BlackBerry - in pretty sure Prem Watsa isn't only doing this to see dollar signs only.

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Premier Wasa is a quality guy and he knows exactly what he is doing. He has played his cards well. He is well regarded in the venture capital space and a very different breed from the silly Yahoo's on Wall Street .

Taking the company private is the right thing to do. Without the shorts able to manipulate stock price, the company is able to rebuild it's brand. Just look wat has happened over the last month and how things are slowly turning. Security is a huge issue and it is on everyone's mind. BlackBerry provides the best and frankly the only credible end-to-end solution. Everything else is easily hacked by high school students from China. That is reality.

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I wanted to buy the blackberry Z30 but i wait to see what happens but I will buy it next month for sure. When hell break loose maybe there will be a price drop but I hope BB will stay BB.

BlackBerry needs a strong female CEO in the US region, a citizen and solid background in Telecommunication. A physical store with US employees. BlackBerry will get more support from the US market. The president Mr Obama just announced today on CNN that the US is inviting foreign companies to bring their businesses to United States to create jobs. This is a great opportunity for BlackBerry to join the band Wagon.

BlackBerry sells license bb10, and states that our due alternative strategic reviews have concluded that blackberry will go at it in its own. We are not for sale, go away everybody. Even if the stock tumbles to 5 bucks I would rather have that than give the company away for 9 bucks. I'm long bb and continuing,

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The way BBM cross-platform is bumping up Blackberry reputation. I am definitly sure blackberry is going to get a few other bidders.

I'm hoping as many people are as well that BlackBerry stays Canadian. Being a Canadian I will always stick to my Canadian products and services as much as possible. As far as economic growth, I think Canada needs to maintain some footprint in the mobile communications business. BlackBerry has come a long ways and I hope to see it maintain growth and prosperity.

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Gut feel is that it is PW & ML with CPP backing. Doesn't happen on Monday though, but later in the week due to some last minute crossing of 'T"s and dotting of "I"s.

They turn BlackBerry around and xBBM becomes the second highest source of revenue. The new RIM IPO comes out in the first quarter of 2018. ...since you asked.

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Not sure about anyone else, but I'm so tired of waiting and all the speculating. Time to resolve this already. :)

I have Zero Confidence in the Board to do what is right for the shareholders.

As much as I like the Z10 and BB10 I would be OK with the demise of BlackBerry because I am sick at the inability of the Board to send their dead fish of a CEO packing. Just how badly does the company need to perform before he is held responsible?

Posted via CB10

Well that was not a very informative article,
What happens on Monday, well we don't know what will happen on Monday. Thanks a lot!
The one thing I do know is that if Fairfax actually comes through with their offer and there is no reason they shouldn't as they could likely finance it themselves at that price, then the short sellers could be in for some well deserved pain. The reason I say this is because the short interest has been heading back up lately to slightly less than a third of the float and at today's price a nine dollar deal would lead to a frenzy if short covering. The real question will be is how much more than nine dollars they will be willing to pay in order to return those shares that they do not own.
Anyone who has been paying attention lately can see that the volume has been very low lately on both the Canadian and American exchange. This coupled with the rising short interest indicates to me at least that shareholders are not selling their shares, rather they are accumulating more courtesy of the short sellers. They are not likely to give them up easily, and they certainly won't pay a commission to do so in the face of a nine dollar commission free offer from Fairfax.
And let's not forget that this public company is owned by the shareholders who have to approve any deal by management.
Let the real fun begin.

But..... isn't PW doing an "Amalgamation takeover"? He will need 67% of the votes from the shareholders that he doesn't control. Not getting my vote!

Chris thanks for spelling it out so clearly. Most of us knew all this but there has been little discussion going into November and it was refreshing to see it laid out - what might happen.

A FB-Blackberry union would be unstoppable.

If Facebook got the deal, say goodbye to blackberry as we know it, say hello to a fully fledged FB branded phone. (like buttons all over the place).

Posted via CB10

Wouldn't that be ironic if Facebook purchased BlackBerry and they still haven't given us instagram. ;)

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On November 4th all BlackBerry owners will be asked to pay $ 70.00 on their current mobile bill and BlackBerry will then become owned entirely by BlackBerry owners. All current shareholders will be bought out and thus will no longer have any say as such unless they own a BlackBerry. That's what will happen, you and I and all BlackBerry owners will own the company and we will then be asked to appoint a board or directors. Then and ONLY then will this company truly be able to love forward and steamroll the Samsung and Apple in the markets. There will be pride of ownership and every time a "new" BlackBerry owner buys a BlackBerry they also buy into the company for an extra $70. What an added resume stream that is!!!!! Once you own a BlackBerry and are upgrading. You don't pay a second time that keeps all owners on a level playing field and allows the company to focus on what the prosumer requires and wants versus what shareholders require. This eliminates the shareholder bollux and, well it will be a fresh new company. Yes that is what will happen on November 4th my fellow aquiantences.



Only a fool thinks they know me.

If every BlackBerry owner would be in our dilemmas would be reduced. This is a good plan, company becomes a proper co-op versus fully private or publicly traded. If companies actually took this approach there would be less volatility in short term for so many companies. Pity companies no longer follow this line of thinking. Co-ops are always better run. Look at Co-Operators Insurance or CAA/AAA (Automobile rescue clubs). Credit Unions. All classic examples of niche markets well managed.

Only a fool thinks they know me.

A delay will happen, and we'll hear of 2 other offers. One lead by Mike L and one by a company like Lenovo or Samsung.

Umi.... Here is "the only thing I know"....

If Prem Fvcks us after promising that he has "financing" on multiple occasions - then Canadian business people are bigger scum than Wall Street and will lose all respect.

Funny that you are not more "bullish" on the fact that the "Warren Buffet of Canada" is "solid"....

Interesting... and horribly expensive...

So, apparently, more "lies and raping"... did Umi and the crew at CrackBerry know this... are they "part of" the raping?

Canadian government approves foreign ownership to a european car manufacturer.

Manufacturing is moved from Mexico to Europe.

Government gets kickback from the deal (quid per quo)

Posted via CB10

So if Fairfax takes the company private, we shareholders get totally screwed. We were told to wait when the stock at $30, then at $20 at $15 now we are froced to sell at $9 so Fairfax and others can make tens of billions of dollars unleashing the value of very valuable assets of Blackberry? So Thorsten, Watsa, management team, board, they all make money while retail guys like us get totally raped?

@ Franz - been getting "raped" for years.... I have had about 7 BlackBerrys, Galaxy S3 and now a Z10...

What is so fvcked up about all of this is that the Z10 is one of the best phones on the market and this "Team" at BlackBerry has allowed us to get here.... oh and Jim Balsille's "cocky puffery" about all things RIM did not help us at all... easy for the media to despise that guy and his lies...

In any event, I don't know if I am even going to be able to get a Z30 at ATT - that's how fubarred this whole thing is.... but I suspect I will....

This "Canadian Management Team at BlackBerry" present and past have proven "time and time again" that they have not been up to the FIGHT....

So here we are in the midst of a violent and rage based raping.... Something about this ought to be illegal.

Based on your last name you should be more of a screwed investor! Lol. Just kidding. Now come on, you never fall in love with a stock. Business is business and you should have known.

Trolls should be forced to use BB10!

The one quible I have is when Chris says, "The board of directors would not be doing its fiduciary duty if it didn’t try to get he highest possible price for the stock."

The board's fiduciary duty changes depending on if the company can continue on as it is or if a sale or breakup has become inevitable. As the situation stands now a sale is not inevitable so the board's fiduciary duty has not yet changed to one of trying "to get the highest possible price for the stock." That may come later but it is not the case now so the comment by Chris is not technically correct. The board has a different fiduciary duty currently and they would be well advised to understand what that duty is and stick to it.

Nope. Fairfax's financing could fall through. Due dilligence could prove unsatisfactory. Negotiations could lead to an impass (explicitly stated was "subject to a number of conditions including... negotiations") . Regulators could fail to approve the deal. Shareholders could vote down the deal...

Both the board and Fairfax have a number of ways to get out of the deal. I agree the "intention" is there but that is something the board agreed to, not something that was inevitable. Formal is not the same as inevitable. Different standards apply.

Whichever keeps the as a company selling phones and not split it's up and sells all the assets

From my smokin' Barbeque10

Can you enlighten me ? Could Fairfax simply dismantle BlackBerry to sell its various business units (eg. BBM, phone production, patent, network infrastructure...)

I mean is this a possibility ?


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Cerebrus? The same Cerebrus that made a mess of Chrysler a few years ago?

I hope they go private - then they can focus on what's best for their customers, not their shareholders.

I'd love to see John Sculley and Mike Lazaridis shaking hands and buying the firm together, but I think the most probable option is fulfilling the Fairfax Financial deal.

Lenovo takes over handset business and launches bb10 phones into China. BBRY still goes private, bides it time while it becomes prominent auto platform offering On Star like connectivity for passengers billing directly to carrier. Reemerged in 5 years back onto market at 18$

re Fairfax, just got this in e-mail:

TORONTO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd , the Canadian property and casualty insurer run by investment guru Prem Watsa, reported a third-quarter loss on Thursday, due largely to unrealized losses in its investment portfolio.

The Toronto-based company, which is leading a $4.7 billion bid for smartphone maker Blackberry, posted a net loss of $571.7 million, or $29.02 a share, for the quarter ended Sept. 30.

That compared with a year-before profit of $33.4 million, or 84 cents a share.

BlackBerry will continue in business. It is not "another Palm". The delay in offers being made is due to an internal effort to "keep Blackberry Canadian". The company is in "wounded animal " status which means there is a sort of standoff going on. The company is strong enough in some ways to continue and in other ways needs help. It could be a very lengthy denoument.

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Do not count out the possibility of Alicia Keys as well to come in late Sunday night or Monday, but she'll back a Lazaridis return and aid him with a new radical BlackBerry turn around juxtapose to a new branding strategy that will change the way BlackBerry handles their follow-through; thus having BlackBerry break like a rushing river that's been held back.

Perception would still be that it's just another garbage blackberry. They would sell one to every z10 and q10 owner but that's it. Which as we're seeing wasn't enough.

Must be hard being a blackberry employees these days. Shit I can barely stomach being a blackberry user

I would bet that no one buys BlackBerry and faced with going it alone the stock tanks. Of course had they put in an honest effort from the start instead of announcing their demise (ie. Strategic Alternatives - Wi Lan did the same today). BB10 would have been much more viable today and BlackBerry could have weathered the storm.

Long live BlackBerry!!

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Hi Chris, would it be possible to have Blackberry only registered on the TSX (Canada) and not in the USA? Might relieve some of the heat/corruption & manipulation.

In summary, BlackBerry needs capital to market its new BlackBerry 10 portfolio and to buy it time to do so while completing its transition to the new platform while bringing new NOC services to the public/enterprise, BES10, BBM and BBM Channels. The two most obvious/often recognized suitors that would also gain most from a partnership with BlackBerry, are Lenovo and Facebook. Sony would also gain as much, if not as prominent a suitor. It’s not likely that Facebook has the assets on hand to flat out buy BlackBerry. Even if Lenovo could do so, it would face regulatory issues in Canada and the USA, leaving a partnership option the only path to move forward. Apple, Microsoft and Google, would have less to gain from a partnership with BlackBerry, having their own hardware/software vertically integrated, already. These three companies, as well as Samsung, would most likely use the patent portfolio and the NOC/BES10 secure servers/software to their advantages in gaining access to enterprise clients.
Stay tuned, as the cat will be let out of the bag, on or before November 4, 2013! Ofcourse, BlackBerry may decide to stay the course, on its own, public and Canadian, having acquired a second wind. Or, perhaps Mike Lazaridis might come into the picture, as part of the Fairfax deal or with other partners.

My bet is nothing will happen, it was a measure to stabilize the stock for a few months before BBM and BES 10 show some good results.

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Though I believe BBRY may have done more damage than 1st thought, by announcing a sale and/or partnership,. They lost Millions of Z10 sales because of this. Had they better explained there reasoning why, and the dedicated and continued BB10 support, the damage from nonsense rumours and speculation would have quickly died down.

I will say this once more, the provisions regarding a sale and or partnership stands on one thing, and that is the continued strong support for BB10. BlackBerry 10 is to continue to be supported and grow or NO DEAL. This comes right out of BBRY's mouth. Just wish they explained it better.

2 Strategic Partnerships coming IMO.
As for the FairFax deal, not sure its going to get passed.
BBRY is obviously worth a lot more than $9 per share.

Since everyone knows BlackBerry can't keep any promises or meet any deadlines, this will drag on, and BlackBerry will fall further into obsolescence. "Keep Moving"

Geez today could be the last day of BB as a trading company , " Where is the Podcast . the cake , the Pint of Beer, the chilli "

Paywall.. and I don't read it other than for these BBRY articles. I've been expecting rumblings leaking out all week and all we got was a trip to FB and this. It seems quiet... too quiet (said in a gunslinger tone from the awesome video arcade game time traveller by Sega ;)

Ok, possible stupid question alert:

If the Nov.4 deadline happens, and FairFax (playing possum all along as I suspect), states that they are not quite done with their due diligence, and want an extension, does this release BlackBerry from any penalty, and thus allow an open market window to then happen?

BBM already boost million of android phones sales out there and it's real (even iphone take the advantage), whose not believe BLACKBERRY is more than $9..??????

If I had to make a bet Chris it would be that you are wrong.

“We believe there is enough evidence to suggest Apple will launch such a device. In our view, the appearance of the iPhone (or something like it) poses little risk to RIM’s business.”
Chris Umiastowski, TD Securities, 12 December 2006

The best outcome could be Fairfax backs out of the deal, and Blackberry announces they are staying public. They are acquiring partnerships (Facebook, Google), and they are showing signs of stability. I would rather ride the roller coaster, than bail. I see a lot of future potential for BlackBerry, and I hope the short traders refocus their attention to Apple.

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I am one investor that absolutely will not let my shares go for a measly $9/shr, even though I have stock under this price. The future gain potential of Blackberry is better than Apple, and I am not willing to hand over my shares so Fairfax can steal my profit. Don't research the articles they are trying to scare you, look at Blackberry technology, and what it is capable of. I bought a Z10 to get a better understanding of my investment, and It should pay off if Blackberry stays public. Even if you buy an unlocked Z10 from blackberry's official website, to replace your iPod touch it will he money well spent. I paid $399 for an 80gb smart device that not only makes for a great media player, it also makes for a great organizer. The hub, once you understand the benefits will change your life forever.

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It is only a hunch, but I believe that this Fairfax deal was made simply to stop the bleeding of share value while they tighten up their BB10 OS. They also used this time to acquire partnerships. It would be stupid for BlackBerry to go private. The stock is remaining stagnant just under $9 until Monday. I believe if Blackberry plays their cards right and makes some major partnership announcement, along with the news that they are remaining a publicly traded company will help to break the $9 barrier. BB10.2 is days away, and just in time for a turnaround.

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I think the current shareholders will reject $9 in light of the recent success of BBM and the comments by the former Apple guy that BBRY just needs time.
That comment alone should give BBRY the impetus to push forward as an independent company and tell investors that their long term plans are being validated by Scully.

I also feel the $9 offer has kept the share prices low. Who would pay $9.50 for a share if there is a good chance they will be forced to sell them for $9.
Ever think of that, Chris?