Evidence that a BlackBerry 10 comeback in the USA is absolutely possible

Taking out the iPhone and Android Trash
By Kevin Michaluk on 16 Apr 2012 06:05 pm EDT
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Nearly 60% of new Nokia Lumia 900 and HTC Titan II Windows Phone users were former iOS and Android owners. I think we'll see a lot of iPhones and Androids hit the trash too when BlackBerry 10 makes a play.

Looking at the sales of Android and iOS devices over the past 18 months, there is no denying these two mobile platforms have a ton of momentum in the marketplace. Especially in the USA, where demand for BlackBerry has been hit the hardest, it's almost felt like all roads have been leading to Apple and Android at RIM's expense. Indeed, many long time BlackBerry owners have left the platform when the time for an upgrade came, and a massive percentage of first time smartphone owners have overlooked BlackBerry.

But it's a mistake to think the game is over. As the recent decline of BlackBerry has demonstrated, consumers are less loyal than you may think. Of course there are tech fans who are extremely loyal (myself included), and most of them live on our Mobile Nations network of sites, but there are always new devices and gadgets hitting the market and people do move around. And yes, people even leave iOS and Android.

Case in point, take a look at the results above from the poll that was posted last week on our Windows Phone site, WPCentral.com. Asking new Nokia Lumia 900 and HTC Titan II owners what phone they had before buying their new Windows Phone, I was pleasantly surprised to see nearly 30% were former iPhone and Android phone owners (over 3,000 respondents). This is obviously good news for Windows Phone right now but I think it's also GREAT NEWS for BlackBerry 10 when it debuts later this year. It's proof that even Android and iOS are not immune to defection. And though a lot of people may currently walk down a path that takes them to Android or iOS, when their upgrades come due, there will be many willing to leave to try something else.

Everyday that goes by without BlackBerry 10 on the market RIM is definitely losing out. But unlike sports, the mobile game doesn't get played season to season. It's an ongoing game, and as long as you're in business you're not out of contention. RIM just needs to make sure they have all their players in position -- software, hardware, apps, marketing -- so they can take a clear shot when BlackBerry 10 phones hit the market. If they score, people will cheer... and buy.

Reader comments

Evidence that a BlackBerry 10 comeback in the USA is absolutely possible

120 Comments

Long live the RIMPIRE!

I believe that with Cascades, smooth transitions, efficient messaging like on the BB OS 7 devices we have now and Skype, we'll be dominating once BB10 hits!

I think that bb10 will be very rough till bb10.1 or bb10.2 - I like to keep my hopes low. We all know how playbook 2.0 is still rough!

I uderstand what you're saying... But if we consider that BB10 and the TabletOS are pretty much the same thing and that some of the TAT stuff will (most likely) be available on BB10, I guess we will be in a good position when it hits.

It better be so, if RIM expect people to buy the phones...

I doubt it will make that much of a difference...smooth transitions are hardly a consideration since android started off with pretty ugly looking UI and it was a success.

Comparing RIM to wp is hardly fair, since the effort put in by wp across the globe and the resources they poured in makes RIM look like it is doing nothing. I saw wp setting up some sort of event competition in Hongkong, which is often ignored and genuinely not worth it because setting up anything is extremely costly in that city. App counts grew much faster on wp than Playbook and a lot of useful, unique, and creative ones too. So marketing wise and functionality wise, Windows put in an extreme amount of effort to turn the tide...and then the half empty, half full, they manage to steal SOME share with the effort they put in.

When you look at RIM, and compare what it has been doing with what Windows has done, then RIM just looks passive, like they have been idling around.

The most important thing that get repeated over and over again is BB10 is this miracle, and to be completely honest, we don't even know what it is. If we have to judge from what we think we know from the early leaks and the chip announcement, we're not seeing a phone that's bringing something new to the table; we're seeing a modernize BlackBerry with widgets and gestures and that's it.

I'm not saying that's not enough for some of the people on this site, but I'm quite sure that widgets, gestures, and maybe those animations/transitions (let's say we are extremely optimistic about RIM's development schedule), for the majority of the population, there is absolutely no reason to use BB10 device.

RIM could hope that some consumers will randomly switch over and some of the fans will stay, but the number is of course going to be small, and even that is just being desperately hopeful.

We're not dealing with randomness here. We are dealing with which os offers the best features and RIM is not showing much promises. There has been a huge turn in sentiment in the past month even on this site, and I think there's a very good reason for it.

Just tell RIM that they are developing things independently, they are developing things in competition to its competitors.

What I checked was the post done at forums.crackberry.com/showthread.php?p=7319746#post7319746

Also, some reasons (not all) that Android is popular are (as Kevin M. mentionned) the people who had dumbphones and wanted a cheap solution were offered Android where many do not have a clue what it does except that it has free games (like the iPhone) and is much cheaper.

People that diss BlackBerry are usually comparing an OS5 to an iPhone 4S or Galaxy SII. I'm not even joking and I've seen this first hand. They tell me that they can make calls and use data at the same time and that requires a dualcore processor and the SII has it, that is totally wrong.

Believe it or not, people are clueless about the fact BlackBerry's could multitask using a 312MHz processor on an 8330 when the iphone couldn't until recently and even now it's not true multitasking.

In the end, it comes to big names bashing BlackBerry for past devices and refusing to accept the fact things have changed. As Kevin M. mentionned, a blog posted an article "bashing" RIM 2 hours prior to RIM posting their quarterly rundown. People believe those things.

I am quite sure that some companies even pay bloggers to do that.

Yes, they have made mistakes, but never have they completely laughed at consumers with an upgrade such as the iPad, iPad2 and The New iPad.

Keep Calm and Be Bold

You mean except when they did things like take the 9630 "Tour" and then change the name to 9650 Bold, make minimal hardware improvments, and expect me to think its a new flagship device? Or changes from the 9650 to 9700 to 9900? Obviously they have made hardware improvements, but looking at the 9630, 9650, 9700, and 9900 laying on a table it's hard to see the differences. Obviously they have made processor and memory increases but the changes in them are no greater than iPad --> iPad 2 --> new iPad.

Kennedy....Dude, you are a bad rash. No one wants you here. Go to an iDroid blog somewhere and shovel your shite amongnst those who will appreciate you......or did you get voted off those chat rooms too?

Correct me if I'm wrong but, do we (CrackBerry Nation) go to other MobileNations websites and talk trash about their devices?

I DON'T HAVE TIME FOR THAT!
Do you see what phone I'm holding? BlackBery! I got no time to funk around! I'm too busy getting busy!!

Feb 2011: Nokia announced will switch to Windows Mobile.
Oct 2011: Nokia announces Lumia 800 (just 8 months time).
Jan 2012: Nokia Announces Lumia 900 (11 months time).

- - - - - - - -
April 2011: RIM CEO accidentally disclosed future Blackberry smartphones would eventually be using QNX.

April 2012: It is now 13 months and not even close to a new BB OS10 product?

End-2012: Personally I think RIM will launch BB OS10 smartphones end-2012, and we'll be lucky to have such a device in our hands by Christmas 2012. (18+ months lead time).

- - - - - - - -
~Nokia may have a chance by transforming its smartphones within a mere 8 months time, very quick.

~RIM/BlackBerry is not doing itself any favour with this 18+ month lead time to switch to BB OS10 (by end-2012).
Like some analysts have observed, BlackBerry does not have the luxury of time on its side.

The clock is ticking...

Remember that Nokia adopted existing software by making the switch to Windows - they just had to build the hardware whereas RIM are being the whole thing, software and hardware

But the poll is not scientific nor controlled in any way. So... I don't want to be the bad guy here, but this is useless to ALL investors and researchers looking at market shares!

Nice job Kevin for trying hard to keep the RIM going.

All I know is that in 1 week I will be switching to Android. I stood by RIM for 6 years. I may switch back when BB10 comes out, but I doubt it. They have been falling further and further behind. To a point when I think, why pay $600 to upgrade to a new 9900 when it doesn't do anything different from my 9700. Lack of apps(and I am not talking about games) is whats killing BB, that and the hardware is over priced for what you get.

Went that route already myself and I'm back to BB and anticipating great things from BB10 and Cascades. I found the Android OS to be very flaky, but good luck with it.

Went that route already myself and I'm back to BB and anticipating great things from BB10 and Cascades. I found the Android OS to be very flaky, but good luck with it.

What are you talking about... That only shows that visitors from our sibiling site, WPCentral are coming from other phones and, surprise, it shows that iOS and Android are losing people.

That only shows the obvious: People want something new. When Java BBOS got boring they went iOS. Then Android. Now those are beat up and people want new.

And I've seen the Lumina. That's new, pal.

When BB10 hits, it will be new too. I just hope it's new enough.

well, but you do realize that the poll's percentage is relative to the new users of wp, not the wp users' former os, right?

Since we know BB's user base is less than a third of the user base of either iOS or android, the stat actually shows that a greater portion of BB users have switched to wp comparing to iOS and android.

BB's market share is around 8 and android is 50 and apple is around 30...so the stat actually shows quite a huge portion of BlackBerry users moved to Windows Phone comparing to iPhone and android.

While what you said does have merit, sheer numbers alone does as well. The poll had 3000+ respondents meaning that about 300 people left BB to go to WP7 whereas about 1700 left iOS and Android....huge difference in numbers regardless of market share and percentages

50% is over 6 times of 8%, 27.83% is less than 3 times of 10%, so the number of BB users switched to wp relative to android in proportion to user base is doubled.

Two times the amount of users from BB in proportion to user base switch to wp comparing to android and you think it is good news?!?!!??!

Let me give you a more significant example...Say the Chinese government executes 1% of their population. That's equivalent to 13.4 million people! Now lets say Canada executes 1% of their population. That would be 340,000 people. Its the exact same percentage of each country's respective population but clearly we know which is the greater tragedy? (And for the love of god don't say Canada). I don't think I really need to explain this any further...Yes, percentages do matter but so do total numbers....quit whining about it.

He's a troll. He gets paid to whine about it. Don't do him the courtesy of a debate. He's actually not interested in any conclusion other than the obvious message behind ALL his posts. Otherwise why would he bother?

I really thank you for the attention you pay to BB, but not so pleased to see you go on here targeting people when you yourself admitted that you don't even own a BlackBerry handset.

I mean not to take away your right to comment on a device you don't own, but may I please to not think your comments would have any authority.

Uh, we're dealing with consumers which grow in number at different rate, in your analogy, it would be akin to saying Canada only has 400,000 people and no birthrate and China has has a birthrate of 10% each year.

Canada will have 60,000 people left who will die at some time and Canadians will no longer exist while China will recover.

In an ethical stand point if someone were killed then yes, but I doubt switching to another platform is unethical.

The result is that China will recover and Canadians will be gone forever...ethics aside (which is unrelated to the case whatsoever), do you think Canada being gone is really less of a tragedy than slowing the growth of China?

Hey JackKennedy:
I don't know where on earth you get your stats from, or maybe you just invent them for your own purposes, but as usual you're wrong - just like every other bit of disinformation you spew on this site.

GLOBAL MOBILE OS USAGE DEC/2011:
Symbian - 33%
iOS - 23%
Android - 22%
BB OS - 8%

Now if you do the math, unless you're going to reinvent that to suit your needs as well, you'll see that adjusted percentage for the Blackberry compared to the iOS and Android OS are:

iOS = 29.36; BB OS = 29.04
Android OS = 27.76; BB OS = 27.77

In case you have a hard time understanding these numbers, I'll put this as simply as I can: THEY ARE EQUAL! Well close enough that it's not worth arguing about.

I took American figure from ComScore for obvious reason...look at the comments, the majority of the readers on mobile nation are certainly not very global...

That's like taking two completely unrelated statistics...

33% Symbian says a lot about the reliability of the figure for reference of this poll

@diegonei you summed it up very well... I think people switching from one smartphone platform to another are not switching to "get" something on the new platform, but are switching because something is lacking or annoying on their current smartphone platform.

I was happy with my 'Berry 8830 but it was a loaner and I had to return it to the loanee, so I tried an iPhone 3GS for about 4 months, and bought a Torch 9800 on launch day. I love the form factor, but it was underpowered (huge strategic error that is partially responsible for putting RIM in the straights it is in now). I had a reason to move a business line from a $70 per month landline to a $30 per month unlimited wireless line, so I got a Samsung Nexus S (Android) and used that for a while, too.

I'll sum it up thusly: My personal handset is a Torch 9810, and my business line is a Torch 9810.

I may have to wait 'til the BBX-based slider comes out, because recently being without my trackpad on one of my Torches for 2 days was AGONY. I will NEVER be without a TrackPad again.

I completely agree. These numbers don't mean much.

And I think it would be important to define what "success" would mean for RIM.

while I can't oppose your second point, let's hope RIM's definition of success isn't to lose only a smaller amount of people continually and die a slower death...

The numbers do mean something...
what they don't mean is that android and iOS are losing users in quantity;
Android and iOS's user base is growing in a much faster rate than RIM and are far larger than RIM;

Not only do the figures mean more BB users are switching to wp in proportion to user base comparing to the two big oses, but the effect of the 2 big oses are also dampened by its new users of which RIM can benefit only very little.

Kevin actually unwittingly showed that RIM's situation is much worse than we thought. Even before the launch of Windows 8 (the real platform that integrates with tablet and computer), wp is having a major effect on RIM. RIM is the one suffering the most.

I dont get it... Both of them have the largest marketshare. Its like taking a poll for people who live in china who has moved to the US. I'm sure the amount of people would be high.

Exactly, it is called selection bias in statistics (at least that what I think it is called)

If you stopped to think about it, Kevin's argument isn't that BB owners aren't switching to WP but that there's a possibility that iOS and Android folks will look at BB10 when it comes to upgrade their phones. Add the RIM loyalists to this pool and there could be the potential for big sales when BB10 phones comes out.

okay, so correct me if I am wrong, but I'm trying to understand your logic: Kevin is saying that despite that more BB owners in proportion to user base switched to wp comparing to the two big platforms and that consumers are less loyal than we think, BB10 will have "potential for big sales" because despite iOS's new product and Windows 8 will be released right before BB10 and consumers are not loyal, the non-loyal consumers will wait and skip the two platforms and be loyal to RIM?

um...I think it would more logical to assume otherwise, due to the strategic launch date and how RIM has suffered the most casualties, the possibilities of "BB folks" switching to iOS and WP will be much greater than the possibility of "iOS and Android folks" switching to BB10. Since consumers are less loyal than we think, adding this to the pool, there could be potential for huge loss of user base before BB10 even come out, and by the time it does, most users will be holding a current generation phone and have no incentive to buy BB10.

Kevin made no such suggestion or conclusion. All he said in the post was that the proportion of new WP users on the Lumia and Titan that were previously iOS or Android users was high, suggesting that despite the general consensus in American media that all people want these days is an iOS- or Android-based device, a significant number of new WP users once had them and thus may not have been impressed with the newer offerings from Apple/Android makers to remain on those platforms. That's all Kevin's saying in his post. I think you're reading far too into it.

It doesn't matter if the actual number of former BlackBerry users is greater than the actual number of former iOS/Android users, because Kevin's original premise is that if the new WP phones are compelling enough to lure a significant percentage of former iOS/Android users, then if BB10 is good enough, it too may do the same.

To summarize: the article is basically saying that we shouldn't count RIM out yet. Not that it will miraculously take over the market share or anything, just that people might actually buy the new devices. That's all, folks.

I'm just reading what sk8er_tor wrote, since I can't seem to understand his logic and how he came up with the conclusion that there could be big sales when BB10 phones comes out.

Then I suggest you read my post again because it's quite clear. Read all the words. Not wasting more time on you.

Did anyone even realize that "older Windows Phone" was not even an option in this poll?

Kevin's conclusion that 60% of Lumia and Titan users came from iOS and Android is wrong since this poll does not even count all those people who had older windows phones and switched to the newer devices.

It's like if they were asking "If you switched to Windows from another OS, which one was it?" and it is no surprise that the top responses were for the platforms with the biggest market shares. The only surprise is that less Android users are switching compared to iOS, since Android has a bigger market share. This shows fatigue among iOS users since it is an older OS.

Can RIM last long enough for these supposed blockbuster devices to make it to market? Will these devices be good enough to warrant the level of expectation and anticipation that builds?

When RIM's next BlackBerry smartphone comes to market, it is an absolute requirement that the device be an overwhelming success, and it must be immediate. RIM will have to do something that they have not managed in a very long time, release a device that is nearly perfect, as there is not likely to be any time for a "do-over" after this.

On Mobilesyrup, they recently had an interesting poll regarding what mobile device people were looking forward to this year, and a bb10 device was second behind the Samsung Galaxy S3, htc and apple were tied for 3rd/4th.

Haters keep voicing their negative opinions, while the patient keep quiet.

and the results was:

Samsung Galaxy S III (44%, 1,825 Votes)

BlackBerry 10 smartphones (18%, 735 Votes)
Apple's iPhone (11%, 467 Votes)
HTC One X (11%, 452 Votes)

So even on a Canadian site, RIM is behind Samsung by 1100 votes and Apple is behind RIM only by 200something votes

and I have no idea why Lumia 900 and even Lumia 800 are still on the list....

Everyone loves a comeback...RIM is in a unique position to blow the minds of many and complete the Gordie Howe hat trick in game 7 of the Mobile Cup finals.

MARKETING, MARKETING, MARKETING!!!! That and bribing the Developers of the Top 25 Apps over on iPOS wouldn't hurt either. I think that (and obviously a good product, duh) would be enough to stage the ultimate RIM-job!!!!
--Joz

Long Live The RIMpire!!!

Skype is owned by Microsoft. It ain't gonna appear on Blackberry anytime soon. Hell, it ain't even on Windows Phone yet.

[extracted from an older comment of mine:]

I've tried ReelPortal (too much lag on overseas conversations) and everything else ... Bottom line: We either get Skype or Oovoo, etc; OR else, RIM has to make its audio/video-chat on the PlayBook cross-platform (maybe integrate it with BBM for BB users etc).

In other words: PB MUST have a high-quality cross-platform audio/video chat service, whether it's skype, oovoo, or invented at RIM.

BTW: The fact that Skype refuses to make a PB application smacks of corporate politics [you mention M$] and I'm happy to leave skype if RIM makes an alternative.

Question is, who is gonna.help rim get blackberry10 to be that "SuperPhone " that it needs to be.
Only way I see this happening is if Samsung step in.

RIM does fine making there hardware, in my opinion a bb is built a lot better than the plastic that Samsung puts out.

I said it in other posts and will repeat it again: Samsung will not step in, it is neither to their benefit, nor does it fit in with their culture. It is just impossible; there's absolutely no chance.

But justin bieber wasn't the first one who said "never say never". It was mentioned in a few old OLD movies and television shows, cartoons, even on the radio before television existed. Looking it up, it's been said by millions, not just bieber.

Well really, perhaps next time you can check your facts and provide footnotes and references to back up your spurious Beiber claims. I found it funny, and the misplaced annoyance in response was unintentionally even funnier!

Oh, look everyone, the TROLL that knows everything. Samsung consults him on a regular basis, so they'll know what they should do. LMAO

having a pat on the back for ourselves. i mean...unless the probability goes to "0", the "absolutely possible" prediction is obvious and hence no need for evidence.

now how rimm is gonna play this out and how the market is gonna react to this is beyond prediction...

at this point i'm pretty dismay about the outlook of this company. truth is, if BB 10 pans out, i stay. otherwise, iphone it is. heck, Thorsten Heins himself said individual users are not gonna be the focus of the company any more.

"“Now if you go exactly where your competitors are, you’re dead,” says Heins. “If we try to be Apple, we will fail.”

-- http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-04-05/thorsten-heins-into-rims...

I personally think BB10 is the number 1 most anticipated device of the year, People want to see the playbook in a mobile phone form factor.

People don't even care about the Playbook, the Playbook is selling like the plastic and glass it's made out of. I find it extremely difficult to believe that "people" would suddenly become interested in seeing Playbook in a phone form factor when they don't even care about the Playbook itself.

lol:
Yes, an excellent example of what happens when you leave a 10 year old unsupervised on a computer too long. Someone should tell his mother to put the little juvenile delinquent to bed.

I don't know which world you come from, but here on Earth, Playbook's sales figure is horrible.

If you looked at the other post about Playbook, in a lot of the comments, many users own an additional iPad....I think Kevin himself has said that he owns an iPad at some point, certainly at least some Apple products...

To say that Playbook is selling very well either means you're from another planet or is flat outright lying.

Loyalty is a good value to have from your followers and RIM has them just like the other manufacturers. What will keep the faithful coming back will be product quality, delivery of product, solid customer support, and an on point message. Also for me another reason is investment in accessories, apps, and familiarity with a platform.

If RIM can keep the transition to a new platform as seamless as possible and try to maintain some accessory compatibility would be a very good way of keeping the faithful on board. It to me also comes down to what is it we are users want to see in the BB family of products and do these offerings provide the solution to what we seek. If not then we are free to move on and switch products, but not everyone can afford to make changes annually or more when new models come out or plans are up for renewal.

One of the things I did as marketing manager for one of the companies I worked for was to put our company president in front of our customer base in our MARCOM adds and product brochures. His picture was in front of people with his message to them from our company. This made things personal and gave a sense of human factor and face to the company above our sales and rep network. The customer sees his effort to communicate with them and took the time to do so.

Wouldn’t it be cool if RIM would do this in new ads and commercials to introduce the new BB10 platform and models going forward? To show that RIM has a face and people behind with a strong solid product line.

Don't forget CrackBerry Nation that Apple was one day "hanging by a thread". I believe there are enough loyalists who will stay and/or come back if RIM get's it right this time. The BIG question is, "How much time does RIM still have?" I so badly want them to win! Thanks Kevin and CrackBerry team for all your hard work - a lot of which we don't even see! Keep it up!

Here's a poll that I'd like to see (maybe it's be done somewhere)...

What percentage (%) of any Mobile OS' subscribers would say that they are "die-hard loyalists" to that platform. My prediction: RIM wins hands-down! Like Kevin said, most other consumers can be persuaded. Rock on, BlackBerry!

I would leave BlackBerry if there was something better...for me there isn't

I'm really excited about the future of BB10 and the playbook...if RIM makes the experience different and exciting people will notice...and comeback or switch

"Everyday that goes by without BlackBerry 10 on the market RIM is definitely losing out."
That is so true!!!!

Kevin, I realize you are the biggest BlackBerry cheerleader on the planet. Your optimism is admirable. However you need to write articles like this objectively, from a less emotional prespective.

come one, Kevin owns iPads and iPhones and stuff...these articles are here because it's crackberry.com...mostly for cheering up hardcore fans than depicting reality...

more like cheering up the hardcore fans and misrepresenting reality...

how many of you remember the story of the apple "newton" fan group?

religiosity is brand loyalty one step too far.

As both a Galaxy S2 and Bold 9900 owner I'll say that I find Android highly overrated. For sure there are many things to like about it but the main reason it is popular is because it is cheap with the most manufacturers meaning the most devices on the market. Not necessarily because it is 'better'.

Even though I am not an Apple fan, I would take an iOS device over an Android one as long as it was jailbroken...and if Apple actually offered a removal battery and bigger display. Unfortunately, they don't hence the S2.

This isn't to say that BB is the best phone either. Far from it. But it is really good (or the best) at some core things and if RIM can pull off a good BB 10 phone I wont have to carry around two devices to get the experience I want which would make me really happy.

Interesting in that I alternate between a GSII Skyrocket and a Bold 9900 as well. I actually love Android, although it is easy to see it is a cobbled together system. I find it annoying to have to go back every now and then and close open programs to save battery life. I have a hate/hate relationship with Swype.
But I always find myself reaching for my Bold and that sublime keyboard. Although BB7 is a steaming pile of crap, Blackberry truly is the best at messaging/communication, and not to mention, I am addicted to that damn blinking LED notification light.

As much as I hate to say it, has it been taken into account that there are significantly fewer blackberry users to switch than there are iOS and Android users? This poll doesn't really say much to me except that people were excited about the new Windows phones...

Don't get me wrong, I'm as uber excited BB10 as much as the next guy (except for maybe Kevin), but this article really only looks at the bright side and not necessarily the realistic side...

More pies in the sky ! They just keep coming , week after week .......! More dreams ! Only the real Fanboys will buy the new BB OS 10. Nobody els.
Today according to Bloomberg RIM hired Bankers to " Weigh strategic options " ! Means RIM is looking for a buyer ! The only way !

There are a few things to consider here:

1. Nokia is virtually giving the 900 away, and hemorrhaging so much money Moody's downgraded their credit rating. There is a very real chance Nokia will not survive.
2. WP7.5 has been out a few years and seen at least 2 updates, the last a major one. BB10 will not have this luxury. It must be a hit and polished right out of the gates.
3. I might be wrong, but I believe Blackberry has a lower share of switchers do to the fact that there simply aren't all that many people left using a Blackberry (9% market share), and most have recently updated to BB7 devices so they are ineligible to upgrade.
4. The Apps MUST be there at launch.

The mobile industry needs RIM. RIM still has a chance, and I hope they hit a home run.

LET'S DO THIS RIM!!!

I can't really take a poll like this from WPCentral seriously. Many of the users really dislike Android and Apple products and that might even influence them to falsely vote for iPhone or Android.

yes...and people can't switch from Lumia 800 or Windows Mobile...Good job, WPCentral....

Moreover, where did they find the 6% of webOS users to switch to wp to begin with. I'm sure if they hang on to this point, it's going to be pretty difficult to move them to wp in wp's first iteration....

I am a blackberry loyalist all the way. I won't even consider switching to android or iphone until RIM is gone outta business for good. But the one thing that concerns me is when I read artciles about rim wanting to sell itself to other companyies even before bb10 is released. Is rim loosing fiath in its OS, does this meen Mr. Heins doesn't believe rim can pull through this mess byitself?? I really really want rim to drop a lot of jaws with its BB10 OS. I don't care much for apps. I just need the apps that I use from day to day like my banking apps, my gps, wikitude, groupon, facebook, gasbuddy, etc. Please RIM, for the sake of bbm and ur legendary status as a mobile player in the game letss pull ourselves together and release one kickass product!! Make me a proud canadian and a proud owner of a Blackberry!!!!

How many Lumina's and Titan II's have been sold to date? I can guarantee that they don't come close to the Android and iPhone sales.

I have been a BlackBerry fan for quite a while but as they continue to fail to implement anything new and exciting they will continue to fail to compete with Apple and Google. They need to stop trying to play catch up and having a reactionary mindset. They do one thing good and with every new release of iOS or Android those technologies release API's that bring them that much closer to bringing a BlackBerry like enterprise experience.

Come on RIM, stop watching and start doing!

A world where there is IOS and Android without any other viable options would be a sad day for me. After playing with windows phone and the playbook, while Android and IOS have strong/matured OS, I think that the market is ready for a refresh. I'm really hoping that bb10 gives me a wow factor that playbook os did for me, with regards to an interface usability, the apps and other things I'm willing to wait somewhat to mature.

but the point of operating system is to have a unified environment...Cross device NFC communication, certain bluetooth functions, certain cross device apps, syncing, etc depends on compatibility...the number of oses in the market is suppose to be small.

That's not the point of an operating system. An OS lets the user control the hardware device. What you're talking about is much newer and arguably redefined by Apple: the mobile solution. It's helpful, and even beneficial in some aspects, to have all of your devices synced together via one technology or another, but it's certainly not mandatory.

Case in point: several iOS users hate iTunes (which now lets you sync nearly all of your data across different devices and device types) and don't like the fact that you almost have to go through it to operate an iPhone or iPod Touch, which was one of the reasons for the advent of jailbreaking. Or, a person that owns a Mac laptop but chooses an Android phone and/or tablet.

We don't have a slightest idea what will BlackBerry 10 be. It's UI, how it works, etc, how can we be sure that iOS and Android users will jump ship to BB10? I doubt it, plus, hardware plays an important role in deciding which platform to go with. Seeing how RIM design their hardware, their BB10 hardware will be a year late than its competitors. 9900 with no front facing camera, 5MP camera, no autofocus? To hell with security, general consumers won't care about the mobile being secure or not.

Just to be fair...he said how it is absolutely possible...he didn't say how likely it is....

It's like going on a Doctor Who forum and seeing all these posts about "how it is absolutely possible that River Song is the Rani" or going to the court and seeing the lawyer say "how it is absolutely possible that the man fell by accident"...usually when someone say "absolutely possible", the "absolutely" is meant to be self-assuring on an unlikely scenario....

Popular lore gives us the idea that smartphone users just switch from one device to another. The reality is that this is still a growing market. Check Gartner Group and IDC reports, and you will find that new users are more important for growth than existing users, or upgraders. What RiM really need to accomplish is to attract new users, especially people getting their first smartphone. Once this market matures in a few years, then it will become more important to retain users, or attract users from other platforms, but for now it's all about attracting new users.

RIM is dead. At first, i was excited about BB10. Then I started pretending that my PlayBook OS was on my 9930 and I realized how much I'd hate it to simply get stuff done. I love my phone because of the endless settings/customizations. The PB has about 10 settings. My phone has integrated apps, where I have a menu that I can do a lot of stuff. The PB can swipe between apps, but that's about it. And so on.

I wanted to believe BB10 would be a continuation of the BB I love. It won't be. It can't. There's no way they pack that much functionality into the PB OS in the next few months. We would have alreafy seen it as a proving ground before the make or break phones come out.

Instead of the ultimate BB, we're going to get a slimmed down, Android/iOS wannabe. Except, unlike those monster tech companies, who have endless resources to enhance their product, the wannabe will be void of apps. Again. (Not that I care - I'm happy with my apps - but others do care)

And for the loyalists who love their BB7 devices, half of them will want to keep the superior *phone* OS, and the other half of them that fo want to jump will be locked into a contract for another year. And the first time smartphone buyers will get the iPhone the all their peers have, or the Android they're sold by the retail associate.

It"s too bad, because I really love my phone.

Easy come and easy go. I believe that this poll is biased to the types of folks on these forums who have made hobby out of constantly switching to the latest and greatest phones -- and get bored with having the same phone for too long.

I would love to see the results of an unbiased poll.

I don't know about Android, but in my experience iPhone users have been very loyal. I don't think I know a single person who has switched away from an iPhone.

Kevin wrote:

.....Of course there
are tech fans who are extremely loyal
(myself included)......

Kevin is just as loyal to his Apple devices as he is to Blackberry.

I just don't see the hype for Skype. Is that the only thing that will make or break a Platform? I love my BlackBerry & will continue to support it. Got my money burning a hole in my pocket for BB-X. Stats, Polls, stocks, etc. don't show me anything. They can be manipulated. You know what they say, "opinions are like....". BlackBerry devices suit me. Nice article, Kevin. Keep up the awesome posts.

This is true not just for BlackBerry, but for any new technology that gives us something we cherish for: choice.

I am one of those new windows phone owners, mainly because I got the Titan for free from MS during the windows challenge! Now if Blackberry decides to do a blackberry challenge to give away an older blackberry phone in preparation for the new phones then I'm all for it! ;-)

IMHO some of the best reports we have received on CB lately are the reports that we might finally get a taste of BB10 in May. At least then when we have these RAH RAH reports we might actually have something to hang our hats on when we discuss what BB 10 will be. Seems like the guys who work on the blogs here have seen things they haven't been able to/actually been embargoed about talking about - and the sense of it I get is good.

I feel like the kid who got not such a good birthday present but who's parents keep saying wait till Christmas Johnny and all of your dreams will come true. Meantime the kids next door are having their parties in May (Samsung GSIII?) and August (iPhone 5?) and my parents keep saying don't worry Johnny because they will all be jealous when Christmas comes. And today my Aunt came by and says Oh Johnny boy won't you be so happy when Christmas comes!!

Oh it feels like Christmas will never get here...

Those numbers misrepresent the reality of the big picture. What should be compared is the total number of customers that have switched from android/apple to wp7 against the opposite. Shown in total numbers, not percentages.

Those are some interesting stats on how people have switched from different platforms. I believe BlackBerry has the most loyal customers and will only increase in product satisfaction and consumers that user it. As long as there is HOPE, there is always light at the end of the tunnel. The best product will be used, no matter what platform it comes from.

#BLACKBERRY

I'm not sure how the numbers break down or what they really mean but I will tell you why I stay with BB. First, the best messaging device out there, bar none. My eyes are too old to watch a video on my phone so that doesn't matter. I don't need 1,000,000 apps I would use once and never again. I want to make phone calls and get my emails when I need them. I want my battery to last all day and if I need to replace, it I can.

Next, I like the fact I can set up different profiles very easy on my BB. When I go to bed, I change my profile to "phone only" so I will get important calls but not alerted to every email or BBM. I can still sync my music with itunes, so that is not an issue.

The iphone and android are consumer devices and BB's are for business people. Very different markets in my eyes.

I use BB's because they work for me every day. If something comes along that is better, I will switch and until that happens, I will stay with my BB.

then you should not be using a BB at all

messaging, reliability: have you forgotten the outage?

video: then get a big screen

battery: the phones launching this year can all last pretty much more than a day, and many with replaceable battery...if you use messaging and phone calls only, then you only need to use 2G network, in that case, pretty much any phone will suit your need

profiles: motorola's phones will automatically set your profiles according to the situation and gps, so you don't even need to ever change it after setting it up

business: BlackBerry mobile fusion is a pretty good indicator that iPhone and android are already significant business devices that it would be profitable for RIM to include compatibility to them. I certainly would not consider the current os7 more of a business device than Galaxy Note or the Motorola phones

Not preaching for people to convert, but just saying, it is always beneficial to learn about the competitors

Most big developers avoid Blackberries or have dropped support for them. The same or worst is happening with the Playbook.

A year later the PB browser lacks very basic elements like arranging your bookmarks and crashes quite often.

RIM should be showcasing the in-house and third-party BB10 apps that BB users want on the Playbook NOW or have them ready on launch day.

I see how the Apple was "hanging from a thread" is brought up as "proof" that's it is possible to come back from your grave, but to me Apple is still a marginal player on the PC segment and owe their success to their line of iGadgets

Possible?
Hell, it's. Inevitable.
They get the bullets, they just gotta learn how to load and shoot!

Actually this article is quite embarrassing for Kevin ! Written in a childish way where he is acting like a Cheerleader for the most fanatic BB- fans just to keep them on board. Come on , this will not help RIM or attract people to Blackberry. Rather the opposite !
We ordinary guys who, "due to some unknown reason", still are BB- users would like to read moderate articles based on real facts.

Honestly, Kevin. The "evidence" you cite is not evidence but instead wishful thinking combined with -- or based on -- misreading data. Whether a significant number of people adopt BB10, whether they switch from other platforms to BB10, etc. depends on too many factors to name here, not simply the "evidence" that you cite.

I understand that Rim's success is crucial for your success. After all, you are Blackberry Kevin and cheer leading, a certain amount of which is appropriate in this hype-fueled world, seems to be in your nature. I am a Blackberry fan, hoping that I am not forced to switch. Maybe there'll be some revelations in the beginning of May that will generate excitement for the new platform and hope for us die hard fans.

Kennedy, do you not realize that the "outage" youre refering to did NOT affect every single user? If not for Crackberry, I would have never known about the "outage". I was not affected by it whatsoever and neither were any of the other BB users that I personally know....so for us, reliability is still RELIABILITY.
I really dont understand your protagonist approach here. Its not a devils advocate role you are assuming but more of a role meant only to antagonize people on here.

A good friend who was a BlackBerry user for years finally gave up when he tried to configure BES on his small-business server and he was basically "told" he had to run an entirely separate server (a pretty big expense for a small business) just for BES... he switched to iPhone and has said how much he loves it... so imagine my surprise when he said he was tired of Web sites not being fully supported on Safari and was looking to switch to a Samsung Galaxy Note.

I was flabbergasted.

When BBX devices come out and rock as I believe they will, I believe he will consider BBX once I have mine and show it off to him.

The headline has some basis, if you remove the term "evidence". If RIM gets their act together -- which includes hitting a homerun with BB10 (OS, hardware, and apps) and actually markets it right. But those numbers prove nothing.

Remember that the poll's premise is that the respondent has switched to WP from something else. And the question is which platform did they switch from. With that in mind, look at the numbers again. With the exception of Symbian, the percentages loosely mirror North American market share. And we're not sure, from the post, where the poll was taken.

You can slant statistical results very easily by selecting where a poll is taken, who is asked, etc. If I had a poll at my church whether I ought to become a presidential candidate, I'd get a better percentage of positive responses than the present candidates and the president. But most of the country wouldn't even have a clue who I was, never mind if I ought to run. So, I could say I've polled thousands with a positive response, but I've already slanted the results by who and where I polled.

Having said that, let's look at the reality. RIM is taking a brand new OS (at least for mobile use) that has native multitasking built in, they're putting it together with a multiprocessor, LTE driven piece of hardware. What the end product will be like is anyone's guess. We have a glimpse via QNX and the Playbook. But how well that will scale to phone use depends on both the hardware and software engineers. I'm guessing that they have their act together on this one, knowing this could mean RIM's future. But, if the lack of full spectrum functionality on the Playbook indicates anything, they need to get developers fully onboard and they need to do that now. And, when it gets closer to release time, RIM needs to do a better job of advertising and marketing than they've done since I bought my 9800 and upgraded to a 9810.

Honestly what i take from the stats is that the BB loyalist have remained on blackberry and that's why a further dramatic drop hasn't occured. It's as if, RIM has hit near rock bottom in user base. People who float around OS's.. will easily switch from ios/Android over to WP7 and continue to swap OS's

iOS is rock solid, but it's getting a little stale. The AppStore is over saturated, great apps are harder and harder to find, not because there is any less of them being made, but it's a needle in the haystack problem, until Chomp helps them out in that department.

Android is, okay, and can be really good, but the part that makes it really good is always around the corner and doesn't ever seem to arrive. And yes, I mean ice cream sandwhich. There are other things too that detract from the Android experience, small things, lots of them, and sometimes you get tired of putting up with it.

Being a user of both ecosystems (iPhone 4 + Galaxy S2 LTE...that still doesn't have ICS), I was about to jump to Lumia 900 until I read in depth reviews about it.

The handset in short is unreliable, and unfortunately, in more than one way. Facebook & twitter is a broken experience. Apps in the market, are not well supported by the developers, they are not actively taking feedback and releasing updates / patches. And most of the apps have problems just running smoothly on the handset, but developers seem to be not interested in resolving any issues. Most importantly, the core apps in the Windows Phone are nice looking, but disasters when you actually use it on a daily basis.

So all this to say, I'm waiting on BB10 to make a jump back into Blackberry. But if the launch of bb10 is anything like the Playbook, then forget about it.

Would love to see those in depth reviews. I have seen nothing but glowing positive reviews from the majority of new Lumia 900 owners. Even my co worker who's a die hard Android nut is bugrudgingly singing its praises.

well we don't even know how many people participated in this post... i don't think RIM will survive on its own... i LOVE my 9900 but this is getting sad.

"RIM just needs to make sure they have all their players in position -- software, hardware, apps, marketing -- so they can take a clear shot when BlackBerry 10 phones hit the market"

Yeah. I totally see this happening, what with their history of doing as such.

as someone that resells hardware in the secondary market its interesting to read Kevins article.
In my opinion Android took off due to cheap handsets.
Apple well I just don't know how they did it. I used one for a week and other than the ipod functions I HATED IT.
I find that most people who migrate from ios to android etc usually migrate back to the OS they started out with. I cut my teeth on a blackberry and struggle with any other OS I've tried. I'm just going to stick with BB. Why? First of all I'm Canadian. I use the BBM extensively. Push email is a must for me. And my BB/PlayBook does everything I need it to do except for Netflix.
Problem for Rim is they just sit there and take every slap the media gives it. Their adverts suck. The BeBold campaign is BeLame to me.
Ill be first to buy a bb10 device. But Rim its double overtime and game 7. Put the puck in the net with BB10.

wait.... you are gauging a potential bb comeback based on the fact that people moved to wp7???? you must have been dropped as a baby! i dont know a single person who would own a bb if they were paid a million dollars to take it! bb is dead, and they are now the biggest joke to ever hit the "smartphone" scene.... if you can even call it smart anymore. your hopeful post on how a dead platform may resurrect from the grave made me laugh so hard my sides hurt. i hope you don't cry too hard when rim announces they are closing their doors forever lol