Earlier this morning Barons Blog posted a story referencing some research by independent equity research firm, BlueFin Research Partners. The news is positive for BlackBerry.
As reported by Barons, BlueFin says it “appears that management is confident that the BlackBerry 10 launches will be an unqualified success” based on supply chain checks. Apparently there has been a “significant surge in orders in the past 30 days” according to their analyst, Paul Peterson.
BlueFin also wrote, “Our checks indicate that some suppliers are seeing 6-month order coverage that is several orders of magnitude larger than the previous 6 months, with some suppliers believing that they can get back to 2011 revenue levels if the present forecast levels hold up.”
I don’t know the folks at BlueFin personally, but I do know they have a pretty decent reputation for doing these kinds of supply chain checks. Essentially, the analyst has to form close relationships with suppliers to find out what’s happening. It’s a huge grey zone, but analysts can often learn about big changes in order patterns by talking to a collection of people who all know something that they (and you and I) don’t know.
Stack together a bunch of independent and small pieces of supply chain information and you just might, through mosaic theory, discover that something big is happening. Without having read the BlueFin report, that’s what is sounds like they are saying.
Personally, I’m not surprised. Over the last few weeks I’ve talked to a number of people who all believe that BlackBerry saw stronger sales than they expected, and had to increase build numbers for the BlackBerry Z10.
That said, BlueFin is also providing some quantitative context. If some suppliers believe that BlackBerry can get back to 2011 levels we’re talking a serious improvement in market share for the new platform.
Is the information accurate? Probably more accurate than listening to BlackBerry executives who are always more likely to speak in an upbeat manner.
Whatever you think of the data, it’s certainly nice to see some independent analysis that supports, with some data, what BlackBerry management has been saying about the Z10 launch.