What to think about the latest analyst reports on RIM

Industry Analysts
By Chris Umiastowski on 9 Oct 2012 12:58 pm EDT
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After getting some positive press in recent months, RIM is back to getting negative headlines again. No, they haven't done anything. But one Bay Street analyst is saying BlackBerry 10 might not come out until March. This analyst, by the way, is well known for making noise.

Eric Savitz at Forbes wrote a piece discussing the analyst report, which you can read if you care. But I'll spare you the click. In a nutshell, we have an analyst who is telling clients to sell their shares in RIM because BB10 may not come out until March. This means the February quarter won't benefit from any BB10 device sales.

Furthermore, current sales are under pressure, so the November quarter could be pretty bad. Finally, he's saying nobody wants to buy RIM, and for RIM to be successful as the 3rd mobile ecosystem they need to convince Samsung, ZTE or Huawei to license BB10.

Here's my take: Lots of analysts have intelligent things to say. And some don't have much of value to add. Just put some thought into what you're reading and think about what matters. RIM's current quarterly results hardly matter. Stability of the user base matters while we wait for BB10 to be launched.

Is it really delayed until March? The Jeffries analyst seems to think so. Maybe he's right, maybe not. If he's correct, this is still a Q1 release, so RIM won't technically be missing a promised milestone. But, they did lead us to believe a January or February release was likely, so if it slips to March, I think it tells us they still have a long way to go to earn back our trust in terms of meeting dates.

Is it any surprise that nobody wants to license BB10 yet? Of course not! RIM is looking to launch it on their own first. They have to prove the OS in the field with real customers. Then they can look at licensing it. Thorsten Heins made this very clear at BlackBerry World in May. And my bet is they won't look towards other handset makers from day one. They'll look at other vertical markets (including automotive).

Analysts are under pressure to write reports on stocks, and their sales force wants every piece of research to relate back to the short term view on a stock (otherwise they have nothing to call their clients about). This perpetuates the publication of research with an extremely narrow focus on next quarter's earnings rather than long term strategy and business success. That's the business of making stock market predictions. The more a stock moves, the more analysts will talk about it. RIM just rose by 30% and now we're seeing new "reports".

My view has been, and continues to be, that RIM has enough cash (and a stable enough customer base) to make it through to the launch of BB10. From there it's all about delivering an amazing experience to customers. This company's two major problems to solve are: 1) get the hardware business back to profitability; 2) fight off service revenue pressure as long as possible while rebuilding around the new platform. To invest in RIM, right now, is to buy into the idea that it can achieve these goals.

Reader comments

What to think about the latest analyst reports on RIM

181 Comments

You my friend will eat your own words! After having seen and played around with BB10 (not Alpha A or B) I have renewed faith in RIM. I personally think they're only fine tuning the OS now and BB10 will definitely launch in January!

GO RIM!

PS:And no I don't work for RIM :P

I don't know why that guy from Jeffries Misek even bother posting on RIMM. His US channel checks are completely irrelevant; for the quarter just posted the US channel check done by Morgan Stanley uncovered that some places hadn't sold a Blackberry in weeks. Show me negative Nigerian or Thai channel checks if you want to scare me. Anyway shouldn't all of his readers be out of the stock? And March vs Feb makes little difference except that all of my March 13calls are going to expire worthless; I will just have to hope my June 16 calls get the job done. "Misek is a bozo" - Steve Jobs!

I think just a two month delay isn't that bad, specially if it is from Jan to March, if that is what it takes to have the BB10 devices in the best shape possible. The big problem was with the october delay, because the BB10 devices are going to miss this year christmas, while Google and Windows have pretty good phones ready to compete against Apple.
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@ezequieldamico
RockAndRollGameStudio.Com The BlackBerry Games Publisher of Latin America

I disagree. A two month delay is/would be a VERY bad thing, for the exact reason you specified, they've already delayed it once. Many of us are at the extreme limit in waiting. I own a phone which is 14months old now (9900), and I'm itching for a new one - waiting till January is very very painful for folks like me... So yes, a delay till March will mean I'm using a Samsung by then, and more than likely I'll be happy with it. I doubt I'm alone in my thinking either - most I've talked to (bb fans) say they can wait till January... But another delay would be it for them as well.

OMG: I can't believe you have a phone that is 14 months old. How can you live? If I can't update my phone every six months, my car every nine months and my house every year, I would die.

P.S. Get a grip..

I think we've all waited enough and don't want to wait any longer. Anyhow, at BB JAM, Thor said that carrier testing will take place next month (i.e. October). You don't send a product for carrier testing if it's not coming out for five months (i.e. March). Hence why I don't believe the March date and I think BB10 will come sooner.

I enjoy technology, and particularly smartphones. I use the things for many hours each and every day. So yes, I love to be up-to-date on the latest and greatest - sorry if you don't share my sentiments :p

We all enjoy technology, at least most of us. That is why we are on this site. Abandoning RIM because of an additional 2 month wait seems a bit excessive, especially considering your name, 123berryaddicted. If you aging 9900 isn't up for the task, make the switch. Then you can get the high-end BB10 that has been rumored. I am more than happy with my 9930 for now. Not sure what you are looking for with the S3. For my purposes, the 9930 is great.

Hhhmmmm. Let's take a look at this. RIM hasn't released a high end phone since August 2011. We were told October, and are now being told January. Yes, 2 months on top of this is too much, and I can guarantee you I'm not alone - many figured 14 months was to much and already own an Android or iOS device. I've stuck it out, I still love blackberry, but NO... I'm not gonna wait till March. It is SIMPLY to far away. RIM knows this, and I don't even believe this bogus report about being delayed till March, I believe RIM knows another delay would really hurt them, they'll release on time, and we'll all be happy. I was just saying.... 'IF' another delay... Android here we come.

I suppose 'officially' you are right... But RIM executives have also made slip ups and mentioned january as "launch".... So.... Ya... You're right. But my feelings (opinion) still stands, I aint waitin till march.

Its a brand new OS!! do you know how difficult a task that is, especially in todays cut throat industry. For this to work RIM has to get it right the first time around, they cannot afford to release another half cooked product and I think they know this. Building the new RIM on a foundation of a solid product should be their number one priority, if that means a little bit more time than so be it.

The people that are complaining now will also be the first ones to point out the flaws if the product comes out unfinished,giving it an early death like the playbook.

I'm confused. No one ever promised January did they?

That being said, I wouldn't really be surprised if BB10 didn'y come until March. A similar thing happened with the October delay, with random sources saying it would be delayed and most people being like "yea right"

He's right. When Apple delayed the announcement of the iPhone 4s by four months, a bunch of iPhone users left for Android and the 4s became the worse selling iPhone in iPhone history... or did it? Some fans are just more fans, I guess, willing to wait an extra four months... maybe even longer because Apple doesn't say anything beforehand.

The problem with you assumption is that it's an additional two months. Why beleive that, it could be 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7 months more.

yes I know they said Q1, but this is RIM we are talking about.

RIM should just announce a date a stop all of the speculation.

No troll. I have only ever used Blackberries. I am also developing apps for Blackberries. But guess what. I don't need to get a new product every year. I keep my Blackberries for years at a time. To start whining that I need a new phone because it is 14 months old is childish. It is just a mobile device in the end.

@Bluenoser63 People can upgrade whenever they feel they want to. That's their decision. I know you weren't meaning to, but your comment came off as a bit rude.

+1

I concur, you might say that 2 months isn't that bad, and people are being ridiculous for giving up, but you have to remember, this wouldn't be the first time RIM hasn't upheld their "date" of release. And 2 months isn't a long time, especially given what we have already waited, but sad to say, all it would take is 2 months for the company to hit rock bottom. Here we are excited and hanging on to a shred of hope to an insecure promise of Q1, which to most of us that means January or February, and now to say March? Wouldn't blame people for giving up, this is all hearsay tho, we will see in time what really happens, hope for the best and prepare for the worst right?

Totally agree. Another delay would mean trouble. I'm in the same boat and am trying hard to wait for BB10. As hard as it is now, if I have to wait 2-3 more months, it will force my hand as I won't wait that long and neither will many.

Delays delays delays. That's all it seems to be with RIM. January is streching it, but March is gonna be about the limit for most.

For me its not as bad as it is with the BB smart phone users as I have the WiFi Playbook, but March is still a big dissapointment for me.

Perhaps thats why RIM released 2.1 last week to appease us because they know BB10 wont make it out till March.

RIM is gonna lose a lot of customers not being ready for the 2012 Xmas season, with iApple laughing all the way to the mega-bank. However when you think about it, Xmas 2012 is gone and most in January don't have much money and it takes us all a few months to financially recover from Xmas...SO this puts us right into March, when BB10 will be released. A coincidence or just good RIM BB10 marketing? We'll see.

I love my Playbook and will wait. But for RIM missing the Xmas 2012 season is going to really hurt them. Hopefully not to the point of having to go bankrupt and someone like Google or Microsoft buying them out. At any rate RIM is now the company with the bad reputation for mega delays, and if they do prosper big with BB10, will have to work hard to reverse this bad reputation. But I have a feeling BB10 is gonna be the talk of everytown come March 2013, just as iPhone 5 was the talk this past month.

Bottom line for me, I love my Playbook and will wait till March 2013. Hope enough feel like me to make RIM and BB10 a smashing success in March 2013 to wipe that arrogant smirk from iPhones narcissistic face.
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Tablets are incredible

EXACTLY! I am one of them. I had enough with the RIM bullsh*t and defected to Apple (proudly am a new owner of iPhone 5). I had been using BlackBerry since 1998.

What can I say about RIM is to give her two thumbs down!

Enjoy your iPhone 5. Don't worry about the terrible battery life or the lack of a car charger. My son says that they'll probably come out with a car charger one of these days and that a future update should improve battery life.

Oh and if you have a coloured haze on your pictures, don't worry about it. They say you're just holding it wrong.

When you first look at the delay, you say two months, no problem. But the scary thought is, what if it's more than two months, especially given RIM's history? Rim could move it from March to June, and say "it's just two months", then from June to August, and say again, "it's just two months", and before you know it, we've been waiting almost a year for BB10. RIM needs to put out a clear concise statement addressing the stories, and not let them take on a life of its on, or the mere rumor of a delay will cause defections.

''RIM needs to put out a clear concise statement addressing the stories''

100% agree. Problem with RIM is they have a mentality of trying to obfuscate the general consensus opinion of their possible impending bankrupsy with overly optimistic release dates, when all is needed is a concise honest BB10 release date. Another problem with RIM is their over-confidence of the die-hard Blackberry users desire to be willing to wait forever.

My wife has an original Samsung Galaxy Tab, but come March 2013 if BB10 is another no show, I will be going out and buying a Samsung Galaxy Tab 7 Plus for my wife and I to share and I will be using along side with my Playbook. I am just simply tired of waiting for full Android support, and Im missing out on to many great apps which are released on Android and IOS, while we have to wait like dogs for months.

I will by no means be abandoning my Playbook, just buying something to augment its functionality, because to be quite honest there's nothing on earth that can take the place of Playbooks speed and security for business purposes, and I personally detest Apple and their narcissistic business agenda.
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Tablets are incredible

They aren't going to be bought out or go bankrupt just because of delays. Give it a thought that BRAND NEW SOFTWARE WRITTEN FROM SCRATCH take a long time to perfect and bugs do need fixing and features included.

The take away from today's news is that if RIM does launch BB10 in March. They will most likely not take in any of the revenues from BB10 handset sales until their FY 2014.

FY 2013 ends for RIM March 28th.

Therefore, that means that not only will they have slowing BB7 sales but they will have no BB10 revenues within their FY2013. This is worrying, and could push the stock even further down as earnings become available for Q3 and Q4 FY 2103 from RIM.

It definitely doesn't paint a pretty picture.

However, RIM can surprise here and launch BlackBerry 10 in January or February.

Let's hope.

Follow me on Twitter for my analysis, thoughts and comments on Research In Motion: @SurrealCivic

http://www.twitter.com/SurrealCivic

No it doesn't paint a pretty picture. But I'll say something here that many BB users are thinking but are to afraid to say in a public forum. If RIM screws themselves because of their stupid delays, goes bankrupt and Microsoft, buys them out Blackberry will eventually go full Android and we'll get access to that great Android market because you know anyone who buys RIM out will go full Android. And isn't that what most want with our beloved Blackberry security? I for one love the security of Blackberry but detest how we have to wait like worthless dogs forever to get a great Android title like the upcoming Angry Birds Star Wars being released worldwide to Android and IOS users on November 8, 2012. If RIM is lucky we might see this title in March 2013 with BB10. If RIM survives then great as I'm looking forward to BB10, if not c'est la vie. I also have a Samsung Galaxy 7 plus, and will be playing Angry Birds Star Wars on November 8 2012 with or without RIM.

If Microsoft buys them out I highly doubt they will go android. Microsoft has their own operating system remember. They'll most likely integrate rim technology into their own and use the bb name as a shell for windows 8/9 but personally this isn't going to happen anytime soon unless a company like Google or apple make a go of it since nokia is in bed with Microsoft.

Android would only be an option if bb10 fails or another hardware manufacturer vested in Android buys them out.

Is Angry brids star wars really a defining factor? I'm a huge star wars fan but I'm burnt out on angery birds. Its the same ish. Not even that good of a game to begin with. While you do that on november 8th on your samsung mc-galaxy plus 4g lte 7inch note epic the third, I'll be running my business as I do day in and day out on my BlackBerry. Because my emails get where they need to go right away.

I have to say that I think this "analyst" is talking out of his.... hat.

He has NO proof or founding for what he's written other than confirming his own usual (I'm pretty sure I've heard his name before talking down RIM) slating of RIM.

It's funny because two short weeks ago Thor was saying that carriers would start testing devices at the beginning of October, which would make a mid-January to early February time scale quite likely... So what has happened since then to make this "analyst" seem to believe there was a delay on that time-scale??? NOTHING!!!

He's talking garbage for his own shorting ends.

Thanks for being as doubtful in your write up Chris, I believe this guys guesses should be doubted =)

Si.

Misek was grossly wrong about Q2 2013 so how are we to believe a guy who openly supports Apple versus all others? He slammed WP8 as well, must be nice to have an occupation that doesn't require you to ever get anything right. His skills are up there with the Weather Network.

+1
This guy has been saying RIM is dead for years. He has made numerous false negative RIM predictions that have ALL been wrong.

This guy wants RIM to be broken up & sold, don't beieve anything that he says

He wants to keep the stock low so that his friends, family, clients, and Big Business Associates can buy at a low cost.
Then when the stock hits $60.00, sell at a high price.
This is his job. He needs to do this. How else do you think he gets back door money?

Chris, I think you are going out of your way to be overly polite to Misek. The bottomline, there is no factual basis behind Misek's pronouncements, which make them worthless. Yes, he may be correct. But I may also be correct if I say the Leafs have a chance at winning the Stanley Cup this year. People will be unlikely to hold me to my prediction if I am wrong, but if I am right I look like a genius. This is one of those predictions to me. If the phones are in the hands of carriers right now for testing, and from all that we have heard they seem to be close to final already from both a hardware and software standpoint, it is hard to see what would be the delay past January. If Misek gave us some logic related to that I would be more inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. Since he did not, it feels like manipulation at worst, and at best just a continuation of his love affair with Apple.

I can see why you got out of the biz Chris, I think analysts have the same credibility as tabloid reporters nowadays.

I personally ignore stuff like this...
Opinions are just that... People have a way of voicing their opinions as "analytical proof" now though...
Carry on

March 2013 is definitely not much of wait for Blackberry fans.

This is "the" chance for RIM to leap forward from slipping ground in the competitive world.

Delay is better than the mishaps after the launch. Even a smallest hitch like iPhone's google maps can trigger a bigger debate to fuel more inputs to these analysts to hammer down on RIM.

RIM! Don't tip your toe........... after BB10's launch. looking forward for a greatest experience on my BB10 device.

One month launch delay in a multi billion dollar market does not make or break a company. One or more years does...lets not hope so in this case

but if it's a February 28th release you'll be staying?

Please - such ridiculous posturing. Why not just go now?

You should have known for ages now RIM is shooting for Q1 2013 release for BB10. So if it's January or March, they are technically correct. However, bye bye!!

BlackBerry Curve 8520 | BlackBerry Torch 9810 |
Oh how I love the BlackBerry!! <3<3

If its March, It may mean I can't wait any longer. I like the looks of BB10, but I think they should have whacked out a full Quad core monster at the same time so they start with hardware that others have

March, smarch. They've missed the Christmas rush. in addition, new android and probably wp 8 devices will be out or just around the corner in March. Yup, they've got cash, but if wp 8 catches hold, RIM is toast as a major player.

Thats a pretty big IF, considering the WP8 developer API's haven't been fully released and it is the month of the release.

meh.. do you even know why RIM delayed till Q1? no? ok then be quiet.. how do u know that carrier support wouldn't have been there during this RUSH? yes they might have missed the holidays, but maybe it was the smarter choice.. unless u know all the business and marketing that goes on in the tech world..

and WP?!?! hmm i've seen like 2 in public! i don't know a SINGLE person (not that i know a lot of people, but maybe a few more people can agree) that own a WP... i've actually asked a few carrier stores how many WP they have sold in the last few days and some said NONE!

WP has a long way to go .. longer then RIM in my opinion.. cause their UI is just butt ugly and boring.

Whatever. I believe in facts. Until I don't see RIM crash and burn for their failure to deliver BB10 on time, I will back up them. Everything else is just hot air.

An interview with the analyst (Misek) can be heard on bnn.ca. The interview was at 12:30 EDT.

His reasoning for the predicted march release is twofold:

1. He claims it usually takes 3-6 months at the carrier labs to complete testing. He says devices will be sent to carrier labs "late this month."

2. He claims there are issues with the NOCs, that the NOCs will not work with BB10 as configured.

Thoughts?

I'm *really* sure I've read Bla1ze write before that carrier testing doesn't take anywhere near 6 months.

Also, why does he think it's "late this month" when Thor himself, who I'm guessing knows a whole lot more about BB10 than Misek, stated "early October"??... oh to try and deform reality so that his overal timeframe sticks.

Unless he has someone inside RIM telling him these things [about the NOC]... in which case he may be the next up on insider trading... I'm guessing he's making stuff up to fit his own needs.

Si.

talk is cheap, prove is solid. so far we have seen solid proof that BB10 is not just a made up story but is real. sales is under pressure? the solid proof are, last sunday i've just bought my girl a monza, while i'm waiting for the BB10 launch. whether it will be launched januari or march it's not really a problem to me. a friend of mine yesterday have just upgraded his gemini with a torch, another friend messaged me in facebook just a few minutes ago asking which carrier she should use because she just bought an armstrong after i told her about it last week.

that's just from people i know. i should remind you, for people live in a country that have slow connection speed, blackberry is a better deal than android or iphone. i know i only got 3 people bought blackberry, but what do you think will happen if there are at least a hundred of people like me in the world who influences other people around them about blackberry?

on a side note, RIM still have huge homework for promotion. when my girl brought her monza to her campus for the first time, she told me a lot of her friends are surprised seeing a monza for the first time. they didn't know that blackberry has monza. or orlando. what they know are the qwertys. gemini, onyx, bold and torch (don't ask me the numbers, i can't remember which is 9800 which one is 8900 etc).

when they lauch BB10, RIM should -no, HAVE TO make huge promotional event. get public figures as ambassadors, or people who has lots of followers. trend setters, etc. get a rising star actress, heck, give one to obama for free. whatever, just-make-it-big. so common people will know about it.

I agree with you, last year when the 9900/9930 came out, i bought one, and I was able to influence my wife, my mom, brother, and a friend to get one too (4 people). my friend was actually using an iPhone 4 and he gave the BB a try and he love it. BB is having a hard time becuase of the bad publicity from the media. I think BB is going to be fine as long as they bring some good apps.

Guys and Gals, There is a major misunderstanding! The analyst is right. THe BB10 Launch in Us will be end of the first quarter but the Canadian launch would be beginning of the quarter.Rim won't agree or deny this report but this will be like the Q2 earning report. Wait for the surprise.

and you're getting your information from ????????

I'm guessing the same place as that "analyst"

Si.

At what point do we draw the line of an analyst report being data vs defamation.

As some times I think analyst go to far to the point where they unfairly paint an unrealistic picture of what is reality.

Somehow these "analyst" need to be regulated. Because right now they answer to no one...

When the announcement was made pushing the release to 2013 and then announced that it would be release in Europe first then North Amercia, I figured it would be a late March release.

Launch in Europe at the end of January or Early Feburary and then 3 to 4 weeks later (4 to 6 RIM time) launch in North America. That put North America to a mid to late March.

What about licensing BlackBerry OS 7? Does any one think that would ever happen? Would it make sense for RIM to do this?

Why would they possible want / try /consider / dream of licencing something which they are effectively killing off ??

Si.

Use it for low cost no contract phones, or corporations that what a tried and true system. RIM has already developed all the software. It costs them next to nothing now to use it or sell it. I'm perfectly happy with my Bold 9900. If I could simply by 9900 type phones with not contract for $200 I would not be too interested in BB10 for a few years until it has had time to mature.

I always find it funny how nearly every single article on RIM’s stock starts with the same old paragraph… “BlackBerry maker Research In Motion continues to lose market share as it was slow to react to innovations from Apple’s iPhone and a slew of Google’s Android smartphones.” We get it… Sad that these analysts get paid to just reprint the same old stuff.

Isn't this the same analyst who, less than two months ago, set the Apple target price at $900?

For me, there is nothing better than BlackBerry, so I'll wait with my trusty 9650 and my "super" PlayBook.

Alec Sanders during his presentation at BB Jam 2012 told developers to have their apps in appworld for sale by January 21st, to qualify for the $10k committment. He also when repeating himself said to have them in by launch. This in my opinion that we are going to see BB10 by the end of January. Watch his keynote at 30 mins in to hear it for yourself.

http://youtu.be/Z5RKy8CPX9E

It won't be delayed until March. This is more BS - some goof trying to justify there previous opinions with a vicious rumour.
Analysts are the same people that said Apple would crash and burn, a niche product at best...

Don't think licensing is going to be an option for RIM.

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2410729,00.asp

"the House Intelligence Committee issued a report that said U.S. companies and government officials should be wary of doing business with ZTE and Huawei because the firms might be using their entrance into the U.S. market as a way to spy for the Chinese government."

Other than Samsung (and Apple) no hardware manufactures are making money as it is, would RIM's licensing be as cheap as Android's?

Technically, HTC, despite the 79% year-on-year drop, still made money last quarter... $133 million to be precise.

RIM's licencing couldn't be as cheap as Google, I'm pretty sure they're running a free licencing scheme for the first 5 years of Android... but that hasn't stopped Microsoft from licensing WP to the same companies.

Si.

+1 Good boy! I'm thinking the same thing. I've got $10k in my matress that I want to put into something. Let's just say if I did put 10k into rim and it jumped to 16$ per share, cha ching, let's say it moved to 36$ pershare, etc you get the idea. Idk tho cuz I'm scared of stocks in general

The best is hearing this regurgitated on bloomberg at lunch time...does ANYONE do there own work anymore?

There needs to be an anti-opinion website. Just so it can be quoted and misrepresented.

March wouldn't have been late if Thor hadn't have said the push back from Q4 2012 to Q1 2013 was only a two month delay. There is no mathematical possibility for a two month delay from Q4 to go to the last month of Q1, even if it was originally planned to be released on the last day of Q4. Personally I think that anything past the end of January would be late as no way was RIM originally planning to release in December of Q4. RIM has to prove that they can be kept to their word, especially that of the CEO, and that can deliver products in a timely manor. They have shown in past action by previous management they were capable of neither so Thor doesn't have a lot of rope to play with because of the sins of the fore fathers.

I have been loyal to BB for years and for the most part, satisfied with my 9930. My concern has been that like Playbook OS, BB10 in its first iteration will be a work in progress. All the comments are about how important it is to get it right the first time but let's be realistic, nobody has been able to get it right the first time. Disappointed and excited, I placed my order for an Iphone5 the other day.

I also purchased some RIMM stock after the earnings report and sold today based on the rumors of the delay. While March is still Q1, time is runnning out. Even if BB10 is a winner, it may be too late to regain all the lost market share.

Just my opinion
Rick

What amuses me about analysts in any industry is they all think they're well connected to "insiders" of companies they comment on. They're notorious for making a splash with their stock insight comments, then never stick around to be accountable for those comments they made 6 months ago

No one really keeps a tally of who says what so there's no real risk of them saying stuff that's hardly anymore than speculation lacking much substance at all. Don't think most people will remember who or what this guys says come December anyway. But nonetheless he gets his 15 minutes and that's it.

Last time I checked, these "analysts" haven't run multi billion dollar corporations either. But yet, they get their MBA's and they seem to have all the answers to the world's financial woes. Lol. Gotta love it.

I read the comments on that article and everyone's bashing this analyst. I get so jealous of these dumb analysts, they get paid more than I do, they have more followers than I do, and they incorrectly influence dozens of people.

btw, did you check the most link on that article page? 'The richest people in America'... that's more accurate and interesting than this $hite article.

BlackBerry Curve 8520 | BlackBerry Torch 9810 |
Oh how I love the BlackBerry!! <3<3

I watched a video on this very sight, from BlackBerry that said everything was "on time". TH himself in his keynote I believe said all was "on schedule". There have been more than a few instances when members of the new exec team has stated "January", only to later watch it walked back, but I think these are Freudian slips.

My first best guess when the delay was originally announced was Feb 21st, the same day we got PB 2.0 this year, I'm sticking to that as our new Christmas for BB users date every year from now on!

Chris, I believe you should let RIM fight their own battles. We all know that they are the ones who have positioned themselves for this kind of analysis. Do I believe the analyst? When I think back about all the previous delays, I am sorry to say but yes I do. The Long awaited PB OS 2.1 was released with a fairly good amount of bugs, still can't get SMS bridge to work, I now have to tap on most links twice before they work, never had to do this prior to v2.1. My WiFi now disconnects every couple minutes. Etc. Generally a very frustrating experience. Do I expect BB10 to be any different? Not if RIM is using the same QC as it is for the PB.

On a good note, there was a very good news report on Aljazeera over the weekend re BB in Nigera. Seems like the 3rd world and emerging markets are still in love with BB and more specifically BBM. RIM should place their focus there, the market is growing rapidly.

Misek 'predicted' a late release based on no evidence and now the media passes it off like its a well thought out researched conclusion. An astrologer puts more analysis into their reports. I don't know whose's worse, Jefferies for publishing such information or the media for using it as a credible source.

Well said! Unless I hear it directly from RIM, I don't believe BB10 has changed. Misek is historically anti-RIM and I don't believe anything he says. I hate the way the media takes these rumors and spreads them as truth.

No, because they have not confirmed a date, they have only said Q1. That said, they are obviously hoping to get it out in early Q1, but there may be certain things out of their hands like carrier approvals. That being said, all of their public comments suggest they are targeting and believe January is possible. Misek took advantage of the fact that he knew RIM would not be able to say definitively January, and exploited it to write a garbage piece, and he also knew the media would jump on it like gospel because that is what they do. So unfortunately alot of people will read the headlines and conclude BB10 will not be out until March, and Misek will have achieved his goal.

At this point I feel like a real crackberry addict. I'm holding out hope to get my next fix with BB10, but I feel miserable and I just want get out of this downer. Honestly I'd be just as happy if MSFT or someone else bought RIM and shut it down, or it went bankrup. Then I'd have to face the fact that I can no longer feed my addiction and I'd have to move on.

That, seriously, is not going to happen. Wishing something like that on a Canadian company is like wishing it on a friend or family member to lose their job and then be on the street or looking for work rapidly to be able to pay the bills, rent/mortgage, etc. It's NOT a nice thing to EVER wish on ANYBODY.

In the place, why do we need to pay any heed to such craps, written by an !$hit Sucker. We all kno what a Moron that Guy is... He is an !$lave & will always try to pull us down.
"We Love what we Do", isn't it Guys?
Rejoice the Next Big thing is on its way..

The "Jeffries analyst" has a $5 target and is a permabear on RIMM. Shorting RIMM is their business and stategy. This "Jeffries analyst" also does NOT register and ask questions during RIM's quarterly conf. calls.

In addition, this noisy "Jeffries analyst" is fanatical on AAPL.

If this proves true, RIM's next release better be way ahead of what people are expecting now...

Many companies I know has always been a "BB" only has recently opened the floodgates of iPhones and Androids using Good for Enterprise apps and similar apps to access work emails securely. RIM better hurry up.

RELAX!! Think of a February launch and pre-orders being taken with early March delivery. What one place could you launch a product and get more global eyes on it than anywhere else?? The SUPER BOWL. This makes logical sense and huge splash!! Sponsor the halftime show or something big...the timing works. Pre-orders would build excitement and a frenzy that they need. There is a TON of pent up demand for them not to have 5M in pre-orders...

With respect to this analyst, this guy just missed the 20+% bump a couple weeks ago and wanted to get back into the stock at a lower price. This stock will be double by Easter!

I comment on more articles than anyone else here. I am still going to say this.

I WILL give them until March. I will still buy a Blackberry 10 device in March. They said sorry not coming out in 2012, but Q1 2013. If they stick to Q1 2013 I will get a device. But RIM, hear me loud, hear me clear, and do not forget this...If this device is one day later than March, If it comes out on April 1, 2013 I will not be buying it. I will not put up with it any more. I have given the benifit of the doubt for so long and I still am sticking with you even after these latest reports. This is the last chance from somebody living down the street from your headquarters in Waterloo.

Can anyone show me where RIM indicated that they would be launching in January or any specific date for that matter. They mentioned Q1 of 2013, that could mean any time between Jan 1 and March 31.

So everyone needs to stop fanning the "RIM stock flames" and hold on until BB10 gets hear.

They've missed BB10 launch once, so I'm thinking Thor has them all working hard to get it out and get it out there perfect!! I want BB10 and trust me I wish I had it yesterday, but I don't, so until it launches it's one more day they get to make it even more awesome then what I've seen and they get additional time to roll out more apps..

#BB10Believe

Nothing has ever been announced about January or February. Its US talking here on these articles and these forums that have fabricated this. I imagine it stems from us thinking an extension of the original date in q4 automatically means it will come out at the start of the next quarter and not near the end.

That sentence can be interpreted multiple ways. If the devices launch in March then in January one can say they will be "coming." He didn't say "in January when they come." He said "in January with them coming," which could simply mean "on the way."

An odd way to phrase it yes, but I wouldn't interpret it as a promise the devices will launch in January.

Then why didn't he say " In February, or In Dec.?
Think of it this way, if somebody says: In Dec., with Christmas coming, we will spend a lot of money. Does that not imply Christmas is coming in Dec?

It's hard to miss a launch date when no launch date has ever been announced beyond Q1, 2013. Quite frankly, I think this analyst, and many of the the commentators posting here are simply blowing smoke with much to do about nothing. Q1 includes March 31st.

Now, if March 31st comes and goes with nary a word on BB10 and a release date, then the comments by this analyst and people on these forums is apt. But until that time has passed, RIM is - and I can't believe I'm going to utter this phrase in the same sentence as RIM - on schedule.

Kevin, before the first phones come out I would like to see a blog on how we (the crackberry community) as well as you personally are going to objectively measure the success of the blackberry 10 launch in the sort term (first 6 months).

Because of the past, and as of right now, I can forsee and invision articles on this site a few weeks after launch (when the first numbers come out) titled such things as "why blackbery 10 phones won't sell well atfirst", "why the sales haven't been as expected yet", "It will take investor confidence and then sales will rise", "why first quater results after launch aren't as high as you might have expected", "After the second gen of blackberry 10 sales will rise", "Blackberry 10.1 update will give blackberry the update it needs for higher sales", etc, etc, etc, etc.

I realize as your passion, business, and source of income it is not in your best interest to post anything negative about RIM or blackberry. But you don't have to post anything negative! Just please post an objective way that the success of the launch can be measured against, and post this BEFORE launch. I do not see anything wrong with this.

Thank you.

"Here's my take: Lots of analysts have intelligent things to say." Really, you're being too nice. Lots of analysts are morons, they just feed off each other and repeat the same old buzz words that are little more than - you said it - noise. When someone who's been proven to know what direction the market is going, like Warren Buffett, for example, offers an opinion, then it might be wise to listen. Other than that, these so-called analysts are just paid to make a lot of noise.

I'd be a happy man if all of my equipment worked as hard and as well as my 9900 and Playbook. If RIM can improve on them then I don't know what everyone is crying about. I trust my business all day everyday to blackberry!

Blah blah blah blah...As long as RIM is still around. As long as BB10 is the best device in the market, that's all I care. Some of you speak like as if you have the power to done RIM in because you decide to go to another phone maker. Try that on Apple and Samsung, see they care. The only reason you are huffing and puffing because you actually think that RIM is on the brink of going down and you felt that you have enough weight to break the last straw and want to be the one to be recognize for it. Seriously, go release a sex tape and shop for a reality series you fame seeking whores!

http://www.enterpriseirregulars.com/News/rim-plans-to-start-blackberry-1...

features a direct quote from Frank Boulben " My expectation is that in some countries we will be launching in January,” Frank Boulben, RIM’s new chief marketing officer, said in an interview today before the company’s annual shareholder meeting near its headquarters in Waterloo, Ontario. “Will it be three continents or five, five countries or 10? I don’t know the specifics yet, but it will be multiple countries on multiple continents.”

I am certain other execs have made similar statements in other interviews in addition to the quote from TH

While it will be disappointing to see two months delay for BB10 device, I am not fully convinced with this Analyst. Peter Misek is known for bashing RIMM to extreme. Remember he has $5 target for RIMM stock. He is a typical Imoron Crapple worshipper. If Apple even took a dump, he would gladly put it on his face and call it pure gold. Considering how wrong he was about RIMM's last quarter, I am not sure why media even listens to this idiot. May be they are all paid by Apple.
I am fully determined to wait for BB10 device but if for some reason I can't get one, I am never going to the iPhone icrap camp. NO WAY.

If RIMM could come out with exact date and if it's in January then this idiot will lose all his credibility. I hope RIMM does exactly that ASAP.

Every BB person I know wants the 10 units and /or will switch back form IOS and Android when released (if it lives up to the Hype- I think it will) ... including me- Keep the stock low for sure- I have a lot and will buy more- they have gone up from 72mm users to over 80- that cannot be ignored-

As as side note- , analysts are full of &^^% - they missed the Mortgage meltdown, and praised AIG, yet are severely bearish on a Bio Tech stock that is now up 300% in the last 6 months- nothing more than well paid ignorant pundits-

You need to realize the history shows that the competitors took the market shares from their competitors when they had the revolutionary products for the sectors of the technologies.

R.I.M. was at the right place at the right time when they released the Blackberry.

- Rezaur Rahman

Well, I'll say this,...the leaks about the BB10 device hardware specs and OS had better be dead-on,...as I won't wait 'til March. I'm currently waiting on one of two phones and they are,...the BB10 device and the HTC One X+ 64.

RIM needs to squelch this rumor.

JMD

if you spell march backwards its hcram. hcram has the word cram in it. Cram means to get it done fast. fast starts with f. F is the first letter of the word first quater. so its comin out first quarter still.

The only way it will be delayed is if they find out the maps app doesn't work to their high standards.

This is ridiculous! Stock prices go down because some analyst "thinks" that RIM won't release the BB10 device until March? Really?! RIM said it would be released Q1 2013 which means they will release it in time. The stock market is completely ridiculous.

So let me see if I understand this...

New device = makes people feel good.
14 month old device = makes people feel bad
2 months = too long to wait
A new device released each year = winning
A new device every 14 months plus = losing
People who need a new device each year = innovative and creative people
People who hang onto their old devices > 1 year = stale, boring people
People who need to buy a new phone each year = cool
People who choose not to buy a new device each year = not cool

Did I miss anything else?

The whole notion of owning a new phone to be with the "cool kids" is just funny and sad at the same time. People get the phone you like and be on with it. The rest of the world will be just fine.

This is once again proof that the market is completely manipulated. How does peter rabbit know? Someone is feeding him. Obviously he has a short interest. What leaves a bad taste is that knowone from RIM comes forward to crush this guy. Defend your company and your shareholders and squash these insignificant bottom feeders.

From my part I really like Blackberry and I enjoy my PB 64GB every day. My sister has an ipad and unconsciously the first thing I do is swipe the screen to turn it on. Once you get accustomed to swiping it is a pain to hit the home bottom to move around. My BB 8530 is now 2 years and 10 months old and is breaking down in my hands. Back in January 2012 when my contract expired I read that the new super phones were going to be out on the summer. I waited to learn that it was moved to October. I said to myself if I waited this long, I can wait until October. Later I read that it was going to be move again to the first quarter of 2013. I really don’t believe what this guy is saying, I think the Heins and their current management team is excellent, Alec and the marketing guy are doing the right things but I cannot keep waiting. I’ll buy an iPhone 5 in the meantime. But believe me that when an Aristo like phone comes out, I’ll buy it. I just hope that this will be the phone they release at lunch.

I’ll keep coming back to this site, because I believe there is not another site where people share and help each other out like this one, I want RIM to succeed and keep updating the PB software and I am looking forward for the virtual keyboard to appear on the PB and because like Terminator once said: “I’ll be back”.

I suggest getting the next curve or the bold 9900 because waiting for the latest-greatest will never ever satisfy anybody.

I say this because my television and computer are 12 and 19 years old now. They both perform up to standards and work ever so well. OS 7.1 aka blackberry 7, isn't going to be killed off either. It'll be supported for YEARS to come. So don't wait too long. The bb10 devices that are coming is what you want.

I believe Misek...RIM's management lies...BB10 was suppose to be released at the start of 12...then we were told of the new chip we needed...then we were told it wasn't perfect...what's next? carrier testing took longer than expected. I wish RIM the best, but have no confidence in what they say.

Ah, the smell of punditry fear rears it's head in the coming of BB10 .
Peter Misek, douchenozzle of the month.

If it's true that the BB10 phone won't be released until at least March then RIM is in big trouble with BB users and investors. It means even more BB users jumping ship to iphone or android and more months of RIM hemorrhaging cash. Not good.

As far as Eric Savitz is concerned, I've linked to his articles mulitiple times. He has had a hardon for RIM forever, this guy is eeyor! And as with most of his ilk writing on tech, he knows nothing about the complexity of their tightly knit products. I think most of us know that we're not dealing with Samsung, LG or even Apple, they make an object, not a complete system.
All Savitz is doing is making the stock cheaper, so I can buy more.
One wish I have of RIM is that they would start taking advance orders.

This article quotes an anonymous low level flunky from an Argentina ministry who said they won't receive their BB10 units till March. Well Duh, You can't honestly believe that RIM would launch its flagship device in Argentina!!! Come on, your joking right. Certainly, they might be slotted to received it 3-5 weeks after launch. This whole thing is just plain stupid.

I'm not too worried. I was expecting March anyway. RIM's still got cash, and no debt, and their losses are decreasing. They can make it out to March. The only thing is BB10 has to be perfect when it launches. If they get that right, who cares about the delay. If it's more of a PBOS1.0 thing with a bunch of missing features - that would really be what kills RIM.

I WOULD STICK IT OUT TILL THE WITH MY BOLD 9930, IF THERE IS A DELAY STILL AFTER MARCH IS BYE BYE SPRINT.

My HUP eligibility is in March. I get a subsidised device on launch day if they delay! Woo Hoo!

or...

they launch in January and I get a subsidised device two months after launch day! Woo Hoo!

Nothing I despise more than so-called tech analysts that don't even talk about the tech. I'm sure his doom & gloom piece would have worked really well if it began with the sentence "Despite the acclaim being lavished on RIM's next generation devices and operating system, a 2 month delay will totally doom the company because..."

The whole thing falls apart.

Here's a bit of fun for when you have a few minutes: go on Kijiji for a major city and search for iPhone 4s. Check out how many are looking to trade to switch to a SIII or HTC One X... then do the reverse, and see how many want to trade for an iPhone 4S or 5.

Doesn't it stand to reason that with all these people switching from one to another, should another decent and powerful and capable mobile OS come forth, some of these folks might also choose BB10? If the awesomeness and bulletproof superiority of these two OSes is sound, why don't people pick one and never ever experience the "greener grass" syndrome? I mean, the market is totally saturated by iOS and Android, so people should never want something different than what they have, right?

Of course not. The hundreds of millions of current Android and iPhone customers are all, ALL, i tell you, ALL potential BB10 customers. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.

Any analyst who thinks the market is stable and doesn't consider that people can switch platforms (and the opportunity that presents for RIM) is just. plain. stupid.

If Rim comes out with an announcement that they'll have to delay yet again, they'll lose customers by the bushel full. Lots of customers, including this one, have cut them lots of slack. They delay again and it's over. My contract is up in Feb., and I thought of getting a 9810 (I have a 9800) and "coast" until any bugs would be worked out of BB 10, but I looked at an Android Exhilarate and the salesman was an ex-BB and has it and really sees no big difference between his Android and Torch. I'm tired a breathless anticipation, only to be slammed with another delay. Rim delays again, and Rim can go f itsekf.

Seriously? And everybody who has a family and a house/bills/mortgage/loan to pay off/support being unemployed? Have you ever even considered that? What if you lost your job OR had someone make a remark towards you? Think again man. Have some sympathy.

So let me get this straight. Peter Misek, a Perma bear on RIM and who doesn't even show up for the conference call on RIM quarterly results is some sort of genius. So let's look at his past predictions.

RIM's user base would shrink.......Nope
RIM would be burning cash...... Strike two
RIM's having problem integrating BBM onto the BB10 platform. Screwed this one up royally as leaks show BBM just blowing away everything out there in terms of overall functionality.

So after this I'm supposed to believe his prediction that BB10 isn't coming out till March. And your evidence is what? Carrier testing taking six month! Really, most carriers do it in 3 months. What else. RIM has to send out test units. But they already have! This guy can't even get his facts straight. I say a little less booze and wacky weed at the office might be in order.

Look, I don't think it is rocket science. Alex Saunders has set a date of January 21st for the end of the 10K developer challenge. So logically, one would expect BB10 to launch a couple weeks later. So late January to early February. This would align with Thor's public statements and those of other RIM executives.

So would you be shocked if it was delayed until March? Let me answer for you...no because we've had 2 years of delays on updates and devices.

Is this entire flap based on a comment from some guy in some argentine ministry that they won't receive their BB10 till March. Wow, now that's news. Of course, there not getting them till March. RIM is not going to launch is flagship product in Argentina. It might get it 3-5 weeks after launch as one would typically expect in a phased roll out.

I really don't understand what the hell's taking them so long to just release BB10 already. They've been working on it for how long now? Like technically, what the crap could be taking so long? Really don't get it. They're not re-inventing the wheel here, from what we've seen it's hardly different than the Windows 8 phone platform (except W8 will probably look nicer). Are they too busy playing table tennis in the lunch room up there in Canada, or what? Get your employees to work on something for years and it shouldn't take this long. Pathetic.

Because you've built several platforms on your lunch-break and you know just how long it takes?
It took Apple 3-5 years to build iphone in secret.
RIM is doing okay.
Your comment? Pathetic

Right... the whole world knows RIM is dead. Sorry for your denial. I don't own an Apple product, but they actually innovated and leaped and re-invented the wheel with the iphone. And just look at the market share that proves it. Meanwhile RIM is trying to just do a baby step upgrade, nothing revolutionary and it takes them just as long if not longer.

You you have obviously never ever developed an operating system from scratch before, with tons of great features that nobody else has thought about.

Think of all the time it takes to write code. Even I don't know frickall about making software or any skills what-so-ever on developing/coding/hacking. But I never will bash a company or software maker because of some jackarse making baseless assumptions about a company who is working their asses off making software for a brilliant product known as BlackBerry.

Have some sympathy for once in your life.

Bunch of whiners! no one is forcing you to wait to get bb10. If you want apple go get apple, if you want android go get android. And for people who are complaining why RIM taking forever to release bb10 put a sock on it. Apple took 5 YEARS to develop ios and even when they launched it , it was inferior to the bold 9000. RIM on the other hand only has been working on bb10 for 2 years. They get pressured so much because everyone knows about it, while apple made their in secret. So for those people who can't wait, go get what ever phone you want. RIM not pointing a gun down your throat and threatening you to buy bb10, if they are then yes you have all the right to complain. But since they're not.... CAN IT!!

For me and me alone I can say this: I am waiting since q1 2012!
And in the mean time I am just hoping my good ol 9700 keeps working.
Now the reason why I am waiting:

True multitasking. With the Playbook and soon also the BB10, you do not have to press anything to switch apps, you just swipe! Switch app: swipe right or left, Go to system settings: swipe down from the corner, Open something else: swipe up! It's just that simple and easy. Oh and while you do it, everything keeps running, if you want to! Now combine that with PEEK & FLOW and the experience becomes even better! Example:

You are working on a Paper for work or school, you peek at an incoming email and choose to ignore it, you swipe to your browser to read an article your paper is all about, swipe again to compare what you just read with an PDF that is opened as well, and swipe back to your paper and type some more. Meanwhile you rock the controls to skip a song and you have peeked and opened an incoming Facebook message, cause you were just invited for a dinner. You go back to your paper and decide to swipe into settings for a bit to adjust brightness.

The best part of all this, you did all that, and the only time you pressed a real button was to change a song, no need for a homebutton, no back button; just swipe and follow the flow!

That's what I am waiting for!

If anything happens to the 9700, you can probably get a used curve 9360 (same screen resolution but faster specs), or a bold 9790 used too. Kijiji, craigslist, any classifieds to be exact. Trust me, I'm going to be getting a curve 9360 as a spare in the case this 9900 stops working or gets damaged before or after BB10 hits. :)

OS 7.1 is a KILLER, BB10 will be the ULTIMATE.

There is still no indication of a March 2013 release date. It's all up in the air.
The only big issue with RIM is not having the ability to release BB10 for the Christmas Season. But at the same time it gives RIM the necessary time to completely polish up both BB10 software and hardware.

Personally a March 2013 release is bad news. I can see missing out the Christmas Season, but they have to do anything to ensure they get it out by either in January or February, no later. Personally for me I am getting a BB10 regardless of release date and so is my family and friends.

I'm so sorry RIM ruined Christmas for you people. But you know some of us celebrate Christmas in January so the point is moot.

/s

Think business friend, a TON of smartphones are being sold for Christmas presents. How many will opt for a BB knowing a possible BB10 device might happen in Q1?

How often do Samsung or Apple delay products after announcing them? How many times has BB done this? I love my BB but the constant delays are getting old.

I believe the wait for bb10 will be worth it. Oftentimes, the best shows up last. And I firmly believe that RIM will strike back with an outstanding product line.

Who needs Albioni when we have Misek?

I tend to believe that BB10 will be released in late January - as promised - to certain countries such as S. Africa, UK and Canada. This Misek character is simply re-iterating what has been announced and stated before by RIM. Misek is referring to the USA launch which isn't high on the list as sales there are expected to continue to be in the low range until BB10 is accepted.

The frequency of the negative 'news' can make life dismal for us shareholders who believe in RIM and BB10.

I am waiting for BB10 but if it doesn't work as they say I off the BB wagon. My big concern is that, if they really can pull it off and their customer numbers increase, what would happen to their network? It is not a secret that they have had a lot of outages and even though they are bleeding customers in North America the outrages haven't stopped. Would they have what is takes to support the internet and email capability to the same level and speed than the LTE network of the providers? Lets hope so.

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