Canaccord backpedals on slashed BlackBerry Z10 sales forecast

BlackBerry Z10
By Simon Sage on 4 Mar 2013 04:52 pm EST
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Analyst Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity stated last month that he was expecting the BlackBerry Z10 to sell 300,000 units in February. Now he's revising his forecast to be closer to the ballpark of 800,000. That's quite a dramatic change, though he maintains his sell rating on BBRY stock and his outlook for the financial year. Here's what he had to say about his continued dour outlook on BlackBerry.

"Our follow-up surveys have indicated steady but modest sales levels for the Z10. With new BB10 smartphones launching in the U.S. only in mid-March or later at subsidized prices no better than competing high-end Apple/Samsung smartphones, combined with our expectations for the Galaxy S IV to launch at a similar time frame in the U.S. market, we anticipate BlackBerry will struggle to reclaim high-end smartphone market share."

Walkley also believes that carrier support in the U.S. won't be as strong since Sprint is holding off on the Z10 and T-Mobile won't be getting the Q10.  

We've been hearing a lot of positive (though vague) feedback from Canadian carriers on BlackBerry Z10 sales; even with the competition heating up, I think this level of pessimism isn't due quite yet.  How do you guys think the BlackBerry Z10 will do when it launches in the U.S.? Will it just be a momentary spike as Walkley seems to suggest, or will there be a real resurgence of BlackBerry in the U.S.?  

Via: Globe and Mail 

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Canaccord backpedals on slashed BlackBerry Z10 sales forecast

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This just one thing people can't realize, once they see the name brand blackberry they turn and run the other way.

Not a troll. It's very true. A lot of people still have the mentality that BB phones are slow and behind everyone else. They won't even give it a chance. I think BB will just have to stick with slow sales until they prove that they have truly caught up with other brands. Peoples minds are not going to change overnight. I think it will take a little while. In the US anyway.

Hoping for great success here in the States. AT&T and Verizon are the big dogs...while Sprint and T-Mobile are national carriers, they're quite a bit smaller. I feel bad for their customers who will want to have a choice between BB10 devices, but if BlackBerry is true to form, they'll have more BB10 (or 11?) phones available soon enough and Sprint and T-Mobile can get their customers full touch and qwerty devices, respectively.

What are you talking about? T-Mobile is getting the Z10... No one other than Sprint has announced they will carry the Q10. Who says T-Mobile won't have it?

I believe he's referring to the fact that T-Mo will be getting only the Z10 and Sprint will get onlly the Q10...these two carriers will not be carrying both.

~I am BlackBerry by choice~

I would expect about a million or so initial sales in the US. The loss of support from Sprint is more an issue for Sprint than for BlackBerry. I think the average consumer may be surprised about the Z10 and BlackBerry, since many seriously think the company went out of business.

The US market is saturated. What is really needed is more lower cost BB10 devices available for pre-pay plans, which would entice new users away from feature phones.

The other issue is allowing carriers to kill BIS. Any user who lives on e-mail delivery quickness will be put off from switching to carrier enabled e-mail, because the carriers are unreliable in timely delivery. I think many existing BlackBerry users understand this, and may want to stick with BB6 and BB7 devices in order to not compromise e-mail delivery. So this new "kill BIS" idea may be something the carriers wanted, but it will hold back many upgrades from older BlackBerry devices.

I can only concur to your BIS point. People using BIS before saw it as the practical way to get things done, which was the case for me as well. I sacrificed more of the modern tech available but I had the most reliable email service ever and compression made "worrying for my data" something inexistent unless I was roaming.

I do have the z10 now but honestly BIS is something I really miss.

That said, lots of ppl in the forums do not like BIS and are happy to see it go. Also in the bigger picture, opening the phone up to data plans, makes 1) more attractive to carriers -obvious why- and 2) possible as an option for the final client that just is accustomed to use data plans. I believe the no BIS policy is going to draw more general public from other platforms in, and as much as I do not like its "absence" myself, I think BB is making a good business decision there in the long run.

I am not from the states but from what I hear, read and what my peers tell me, the bb10 could very well sell more than anticipated on one condition in my opinion: get stuff working and no glitches in the basic uniform "must haves" for the US market. BB10 must dress up really well so that people will flirt enough to be able to see the absolute beauty within.

I have good expectations for the US launch in general and I for one am really happy with the phone!

The USA economy is in the toilet.
That is why BlackBerry went to the wealthier nations such as India, Spain, Canada and the UK first.

BlackBerry can maybe pass some of the older models down to the USA on buybacks.

God Bless America.

You are correct!
I know that the US still has a few bucks left.
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I am just getting very tired of their media bashing the BlackBerry brand ... the worst being CNBC. The Americans have little clue about Canada, and maybe we should let them know what it feels like.
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However, if you are an American, and can stomach this, have a look :

http://www.usdebtclock.org/
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And EACH American is responsible for paying off this debt.
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Good luck, and God Bless America.

Canada has roughly 1/10th the population than we do in the USA. We have 26x the amount of debt than that of Canada. So at the current ratio if Canada had the same amount of residents as we did their debt would be 5.46 trillion (talking perspective here). Our per capita income is close to double that of Canada... When you put that into perspective it is like comparing a students debt level ( I am exaggerating here but you get the idea) to lets say Bill Gates debt level. Yes Bill Gates will have much more debt (on paper) but the income is also much higher. Its all about perspective. BTW, USA GDP is 15 trillion ( 1 trillion less than our debt)... Canadian GDP is 1 trillion or 5 trillion less than the debt)...

oh and Dieu bénisse le Canada!

Okay, just to set you straight (Source: CIA World Factbook):

- Canada does have about 1/10th the population of the US (34 million to 314 million)

- Per Capita Income isn't a term. What you mean to say is per capita GDP, and it can be further described in terms of "Purchasing Parity Income" (PPP) or "Nominal". PPP is the more correct way to view "Income" as it defines the percentage GDP in terms of what that "Income" can buy. US Per Capita GDP (PPP) in 2012: $49,800. Canada Per Capita GDP (PPP) in 2012: $41,500. 41,500 divided by 49,800 = 83.33% which is greater than 50%.

- US Total GDP is $15.56 Trillion. Canada Total GDP is $1.446 Trillion.

- US Debt as a % of GDP is 105%. Canada Debt as a % of GDP is 83.5%. (Note: Source: Eurostat. CIA World Factbook lists US debt at 73% and Canada as 83.5% as it lists all Canada debt but excludes from the US Data debts payable to internal Goverment agencies such as Federal debt payable to individual states. According to Factbook, including these debts like they are in the Canadian calculation would increase the 73% figure by 1/3rd GDP, or to approx 106%)

So, not to rain on your post too much, because really the US economy is still by far the worlds biggest, it's in similar shape (per capita) to that of Canada's.

Ahh, yes. Per Capita Income is a term within a country (how much the per person makes in New York vs. Idaho is important). It's probably pretty close as a whole to per-capita Gross National Product but it's early morning and I didn't have time to look it up to make sure.

Generally speaking, yes, per capita income/ gdp per capita can be used interchangeably. Ya have a good day!

True I have little clue about Canada except the fact that I have a great smart phone that comes from there. Or that my Bruins kicked Vancouvers butt in 2011 but if you wanna bash the USA stay up there and freeze your ass off in the winter. Sheesh! Please remember and respect the user base not some jackass who thinks he knows the market or has a pen and can write.

Earl, from what I read nobody was bashing anybody. Maybe that sarcastic comment a way back could be read wrong, but I don't see any bashing. If it was my comment (about GDP/Debt/Etc), that wasn't about bashing, it was just to show another poster that the US and Canadian economy are not that far off on a per person basis (obviously though the US whips everyone in a Total Economy way). No bashing though that I saw.

I think they went to other countries first to try and gain some traction. The US consumer is too jaded with the previously lagging BB brand.

The BlackBerry's selling point is user experience, not specs. As such I see no reason why the S4 would have any more of an impact on Z10 sales than the S3 would.

Sprints Coverage is still spotty and wait....it's 2013. So they can sell thieir Iphones and I will stick with VERIZON, my Z10 and awesome coverage. I have been hearing a lot of talk around here and I am actually worried that I may not get one on Launch day.* ( packs extra pillow into duffel and sets next to tent for the campout)

I think this will most definitely be a winner here as well.

Well these guys are a dime a dozen, the only way they can get a pay check is to say something.
I was looking at the stocks today and the guys that "know" what's going on are saying to buy Apple stock! well Apple has lost over $300 on their share price and is still going down .
For some reason allot of them seem to have the hate on for BB. Not sure why. BB seems to be holding its own. in the stock dept.
FWIW, I predict apple stock will be sold off until it hits bewteen $50 and $100 and Blackberry about the same range.

When you see a lot of hate in the stock market expect either of the extreme two: huge profits or really bad news...

I think there is a huge speculation going on with bbry shares from some "independent" sources in Wstreet. I would like to know the stock portfolio % of BBRRY stocks of some of those really big bad mouthers out there....

fasten your seat belt as something tells me we are in for a really nice launch in a couple of months period...

Looks to me that canacord is changing their sales forcast as frequently as the wether changes. I wonder what they will predict next week.

How about going from 800,000 to 1.7 Million, then the next week, changing it to 2+ Million.

Just back from the NYC BB10 Experience event today, where BB put on a polished show to an enthusiastic and interested large audience. During the breakout sessions, the BB Reps ran out of time before the audience ran out of questions which was encouraging to see and hear. And the BB reps had almost all the answers the audience was looking for. It felt like there was a lot of pent-up demand and momentum there.

I don't know from Canaccord before these stories, but short-selling, churning analysts have long been one of my pet peeves. Where did they come up with their projections in the first place? 2,000,000, no 300,000, no 800,000, no ????? What this most clearly says is that Canaccord doesn't have, and has never had a clue. They were never clear as to which markets and the precise timeframes they were talking about. I had the feeling that a large measure of their penetrating, first revised projection was simply that the Z10 wouldn't be launched until March in the US.

Obviously the Galaxy S IV is real competition, but from what I saw of the Z10 today, I wouldn't count the underdog out!

I would certainly like to know the definition of a "good app"
Please...somebody show mercy and cure my ignorance...but for crying out loud...let's figure out once for all...what the heck is a good app?
I keep hearing this BS for so long that isn't funny anymore...

Love the Z10. It is superb. Side loaded Epocrates app, which is a necessary medical app and I am just whistling.

This is great news! I was shocked to learn that Epocrates will not develop a native app for the Z10. Can the sideloaded Epocrates update itself on the Z10?
Could you share with me the steps, how you did it?

BlackBerry will build the critical mass in the USA, may take a few weeks, and then the wind will be in the sails.

The Z10 has all the features people want in a smart phone these days. The phone while very much 2012 hardware wise is still fast and feature packed. But BlackBerry has to sell the experience. iPhone isn't cutting edge and it's missing features other phones have had for 10+ years. But the iPhone experience sells. If BlackBerry can sell the BlackBerry 10 experience and if the US consumers see it as differentiated enough, the hardware won't matter and the phone will sell. If they can't convince people that swiping and the hub are great then well, their not going to get anywhere in the USA. But there seems to be real enthusiasm to see the pull off the comeback so people might give them a shot in the USA even with the GS IV and iWatch.

AS much as I am a BlackBerry addict, I think it was very wrong to delay the launch in the U.S! And maybe it's the carriers to blame I think it's an unofficial war on BB since it's Canadian and was number 1 for a long time. U.S wants to promote Apple and Android (google) which are both American.

The S4 launch on March 14th is going to hurt BB sales in my opinion, a lot have been holding up to get the new BlackBerry and we still don't have a firm date! I am a T-Mobile customer and I don't like touch phones, having a keyboard is the strongest reason I want a Q10 and they won't carry it that sucks!!!

Another point is that I think it will be subsidized under 3 yr contracts (I might be mistaken but I read it somewhere) and we all know a smartphone's life cycle now is about a year at most, who's going to commit 3 yrs with one phone?!?!?

I hope my predictions are wrong and BlackBerry sales in the U.S will be a surprise for everyone

GS4 is launching in March but hear the actual sale won't be until at least a month or so later. That gives BB a good month's window to push hard on the Z10, and possibly Q10.

It will be a very interesting, nerve-wracking, and hopefully celebratory event in the next few weeks.

~I am BlackBerry by choice~

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This Mike guy is no analyst ... he is a fraudster. How can he be so careless and out to lunch with his numbers? He needs to be investigated.
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Anybody who takes his advise needs to think twice. If you lost money listening to his advise, you may want to exercise your options.
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Forget about Sprint. There are other carriers out there. Either Sprint will be going bankrupt within the next 24 months ( for over loading on non selling iPhones ) or because millions of BlackBerry lovers will be going to another carrier to get what they want.
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Is everyone with me?
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I appreciate the previous comments in regards to the competition but I don't think BB has to worry. In the end what sells is user experience and BB has this going in spades. The UI is cool and creative. There is simply nothing like it on the market. The phone is fast and secure and the app selection is building nicely. All great selling features. What will the new S4 have? Better specs? Sorry but this doesn't cut it anymore? And the leaks on the iPhone 5s look downright dull. Maybe Apple can distract people with the iWatch but even my 10 year old child realized this one was a dud. The concept of wearing something around your wrist has simply died in the under 30 crowd.

BB is on a righteous path and they see the future. The old guard is being passed over.

I hate to say it but not confident the can make a come back with all these d-bags downing them. I have heard over the years that all press is good press, but never bought into that. An uneducated consumer reads this and might say why bother with blackberry. Very frustrating!

There are a lot of BlackBerry "hold outs" for BlackBerry 10. I am one of them. The US launch should be a good one and very sustainable.

Not that this is an accurate gauge for how well the Z10 has sold, but in my university, I see a lot of Z10s. I would say 1 out of 20 people I see have a Z10.

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I will be in the southern part of the US from March 17 to the 24th.
I will take carrier surveys, and report to the CrackBerry crowd my findings.
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I can confidently say from Canaccord analysis that the number of sold Z10s is between 0 and 5 million. I would like to thank the laser like focus of Mike Walkley for expediting my analysis.

Well those are some.... ahem, to use the proper terminology: quite the f*cking variances in your forecasts a55hole!. (sorry for the language I am referencing an actual quote)

I have an idea, once you've expended your mighty mighty braintrust on providing guidance around the smartphone industry perhaps you could perform weather forecasting in the Midwest?. And then I could do your job!

See?: Apple is #1! Samsung may be #1! (repeat until performance bonuses kick in).

"Speculators" have been saying BlackBerry is dying or going bankrupt for three years. The company is still around after so many who them off. When will these buffoons learn?

I'm still looking for Vic Alboini.

I don't know what the US market is looking like but I'm a Sprint user. I put Sprint on notice that once VZ comes out with the Z10 I will be leaving and will have three lines following. My point is I'm not the only one backing BlackBerry like this. Unless others are not serious about it I'm all in and it sounds like many will follow.

...And every Sprint customer who is switching carriers to get a Z10 should send them an email or stop in to one of their stores to let them know exactly why they're leaving and how many lines they're taking with them.

Canaccord also sold non-bank asset backed commercial paper to their retail clients (you know that toxic stuff that started the 2008 correction). So, I'm not sure their track record screams confidence.

it's unfortunate that the stock's price is highly dependent on success in the american market.

but the reality is that success in the american market is no longer crucial for sales success of many products.

emerging economies like india, china and latin america are much more important for global success.

I think I am a little late to add this but fuck it. Sprint has a quota for iphones per month there not going to introduce a phone that will jeopardize sales and losing the iphone bitches I mean
customers

i think blackberry performance will be proportional to their advertising efforts.

if their is plenty of advertising and support from carriers it would do great. otherwise, it will be only be an above average launch in the US

I hope BB has a large push in advertisements here in the US with a stated release date. The Super Bowl ad seems so long ago.

I was happy to see that BB took out a full-page ad in Sunday's (3/3) NY Times on lucky page #7 highlighting the hub feature of the Z10

I got my Z10 a few days ago from my local carphonewarehouse and thought I'd interview them there about sales, and they said my handset was the first they were selling.

The Z10 was clearly overpriced at launch and the price will definitely fall. The situation is however not unique to the Z10, even the all mighty iphone is seeing price cut left, right and centre. I never thought the day would come when Iphones would be offered free on normal contracts, but they are. Competition out there is stiff guys and Blackberry knows it which is why they've chosen to launch at their stronghold first before trying to break the US. In my home country Nigeria, Blackberry is the leading brand and they sell very well over there.

Blackberry still has a lot of work cut out for it though, the Z10 is my second phone, have to have a blackberry because of BBM as it is how I communicate with my family back home. The Z10 is a mid range device at best with an infant, still not quite ready OS trying to compete with the big boys, of course the price will have to come down. For me I will always have a blackberry because of my BBM affection, hopefully the OS will mature in time.

BB should wake up in the area of public relations especially electronic media and press, this is a strong tool engaged by Apple and Samsung, Apple has mastered the art of selling you the same thing in a different cover, over and over again for years and years, somehow they have excellent control over the media, even more so than Samsung that actually makes excellent phones. Whatever the naysayers say at the end of the day means nothing, the Z10 is one heck of a phone and the demand worldwide will grow, just gimme one already!!

I disagree with this concept of "Samsung making good phones". The entire reason I switched to a blackberry bold was that my S2's screen broke-twice. My friend's S3 screen broke within the first 72 hours, and his brother's glass is broken. Samsung phones are too unreliable to be called excellent.
Note: when I say screen, I mean LCD.

I think the US sales will be good. It will be a slow start, but once old Blackberry users see the improved OS and much better it is, they will slowly ditch their other phones. For those on T-Mobile and Sprint, they will jump carriers if they want it bad enough, as they will be limited to only one and not both. If a consumer wants something bad enough, they will jump to the carrier that has what they want, just like when AT&T was the only one selling the iPhone for a while. People wanted it, so they started to creep over there.

It's great that Verizon will carry both phones, but now they just need to start to promote it, as there are only a few weeks left.

I mean....come on...really? How much credibility can an analyst like this have in the investment world? He low balls the first estimate, then increases it dramatically in just a short period because he now knows how foolish he looks Now he using other speculative crap to keep it at a sell. What kind of games is this guy playing? Would you take this guys investment advice?

Proof positive that analyst firms aren't worth the toilet paper we wipe our butts with. Seriously? 500,000 isn't a miscalculation, it's irresponsible. Where's the accountability here? Why isn't someone holding Canaccord's feet to the fire? Clearly they were either lying to begin with or just complete baffoons.

note to Canaccord "investment" clients.... Mike Walkley's advice is ONLY 267% incompetent....give that man a big big bonus!!

I love seeing analysts continuing to warp their statements and still not willing to admit they were wrong.

I think it was a mistake for BBRY to not push for an earlier release in the US, but I'm certain they will stil have a positive launch. Also, these other companies that are opting out will change thier mind in the not to distant future I believe, other than Sprint who shot themselves in the foot with their allegiance contract to the Devil, I mean Apple. ;)

Should be an update to this article. Turns out T mobile IS going to be carrying the Q10 as well. Which means Canaccord Genuity Walkey can suck a nut for all I care. He just wants to make money shorting the stock.

I think we should all email Canaccord Genuity and tell them they have an analyst call Walkey who should be fired for not completing grade 1, and never got his deploma for not passing adding 1+1 = 0.

Hey Mr. Walkley, I think you need to come to Indonesia.
Preorders started two days ago here and from what I know demand has been strong.
An online preorder site offering Z10s from Indonesia's largest operator was down on the 1st day due to the crazy traffic. (I experienced it first hand.)

Just landed here in Spain and I've got four for business its fantastic and im sure it will take off in the USA as soon as it lands

Posted via CB10

Crakberry is it possible to get a story published so when you type blackberry news it comes up. 40,000.00 blackberrys and NO word of it. The American media is it playing fair? I am sure there is a story out there, someone who has covered it. But it is a Google search and they always publish the negative about it's competitors. I asked this on facebook and most said NO. Does google play Fair? 40,000.00 Blackberries to the German Goverment and the day of the story no mention. How does google work?

I am at a huge tradeshow in Orlando with my Z10 and using it constantly. Most people from the USA here and when I whip it out for a call or to read an email, it is hard to miss that big chrome BlackBerry logo flashing on the back. Many people have noticed and comment asking what the heck it is. The majority of serious business people here are either current or former BlackBerry power users. When I take a minute to show them the phone and some of the features, their eyes light up and they want to know when and where they will be able to get one. They, of course, are disappointed and confused that they have to wait but are extremely positive about it. By the way, not one person asked if Netflix or Instagram or any other recreational unnecessary app was available. These are serious mobile users and many have become very unimpressed with Android and iOS. I predict great success for BlackBerry south of the 49th with BB10.