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BlackBerry to announce First Quarter Fiscal 2015 results on June 19

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Looking back at the incredible pace of change at BlackBerry in CEO John Chen's first six months

News & Rumors

Bert Nordberg stepping down from BlackBerry board next month

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Prominent investment group Kahn Brothers increase stake in BlackBerry by 80%

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Is BlackBerry stock now at rock bottom?

Rock Bottom!
By Chris Umiastowski on 3 Jul 2013 12:04 am EDT
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Friday was pretty depressing for anyone who has been in the bull camp on BlackBerry stock. We were disappointed with financial results that included only 2.7 million BlackBerry 10 devices shipped. But the silver lining was the obvious revenue growth they’re starting to see. In case you forgot, or never noticed, revenue for the most recent quarter was $3.1 billion, up from $2.7 billion in the prior quarter.

It’s obvious that we have a company still in transition. Service revenue is dropping. Gross margin strengthened in Q4 of Fiscal 2013 but weakened significantly in Q1 of fiscal 2014. The cash balance improved but would have declined significantly if not for a large tax recovery. BES 10 has been installed at over 18,000 companies. This is a strong sign of enterprise interest ... but it’s too early to know how many of these trials will turn into full blown BB10 deployments or generate client access license revenue for the iOS and Android “Secure Workspace” solution.

The Q10 has started to ship, but it wasn’t globally launched by the end of the May quarter. The Q5 has now started to ship, but hadn’t launched in any markets by quarter end.

All of this points to a company that hasn’t succeeded or failed yet with respect to the BlackBerry 10 transition. But what about the stock?  Is it priced as if failure is certain?  Let’s take a look at things after 3 trading days of losses on the NASDAQ.

The market value of BlackBerry is currently $5.1 billion, which includes $3.1 billion of cash on the balance sheet and no debt. This puts the enterprise value of the company at $2 billion, which seems like a bargain if you believe the company has any potential profits in its future.

But it’s not quite that simple. They’ve got a lot of marketing spending to do over the remainder of this fiscal year and it wouldn’t surprise me for the cash balance to drop by half. Say they were to end the year with only 1.5 billion in cash and that by this time they’re back to at least breakeven. That would mean the current enterprise value (based on future cash) is about $3.5 billion.

With $3.1 billion in quarterly revenue right now, and likely growing as the Q-series rolls out, it’s reasonable to assume they could grow to $4 billion per quarter and reach a 5-10% operating margin, depending on revenue mix and hardware margin.

If we take the low end of this range, on annualized $16 billion in revenue, we get operating profit of about $800 million. Assume the Street tax-effects this at 25%, and you get EPS of more than $1.00 per share. In other words, you do not need to make any kind of aggressive assumptions to see BlackBerry climb to an earnings per share number that easily justifies the current stock price.

But to justify a higher price? I think we need to see a path well north of $4 billion in quarterly revenue, higher software revenue including BES 10 licenses for Android and iOS, better gross margin on hardware and it sure wouldn’t hurt for some of the big name apps we’re all waiting for to finally show up in the BlackBerry World store.

Rock Bottom

So is the stock a bargain? I wouldn’t say so. But I think the downside risk is pretty limited at this point. The company is financially stable and I think the worst case scenario here is a sale to a company that wants to monetize the enterprise assets. And let’s not forget the value of the company’s patent portfolio. I’m not claiming to be a patent expert of any kind, but smarter people than me seem to believe there is real value in what BlackBerry holds.

For what it’s worth, Cormark analyst Richard Tse (a smart guy who I respect) believes the company’s service business could generate $1-2 in earnings per share on its own, regardless of the hardware business. There’s no guarantee BlackBerry will execute against this opportunity, but they have been in the enterprise market for a long time.

Finally, I’ll say this: The stock hit lows in the $6-7 range back in September. At that time there was a lot of doubt that BlackBerry 10 would ever see the light of day. There was doubt anyone would be interested in the OS. Today, even with the weaker shipments of hardware versus expectations, I think it’s fair to say that the negative story on BlackBerry isn’t nearly as strong as it seemed in September. So if $6ish was the bottom for the stock in September, I don’t think we’ll get there again now.

At the (very real) risk of being wrong, I’d hazard a guess that we’re pretty close to a bottom right now.

Disclosure:  I own shares of RIM, and this is not investing advice. Do your own homework and make your own decisions.

Topics: BBRY Editorial

207 comments

birdman_38

No. I can see it getting down to $5. Nothing significant new, continuous assaults by the press, and the next report highlighting another loss. I sometimes wonder if it'll get to be around Nokia's price.

Posted via CB10

davinci4real

Birdman has to be the most negative person in the world!!! Haven't read one single good post from him.

John Bernard

Maybe so but he's most likely right. This stock will continue to nose dive and announcing that their abandoning the BB10 update for the playbook gave more reason for the bears along with anything they can find negative. I was waiting to upgrade from my Curve once BB10 would be available on the Playbook, keeping my Curve another year for now.

mrskycar

Agree that the price has a little more to go and have a similar reason for deferring my upgrade.

standan

I have a playbook, and I knew exactly what it offered when I bought it. I bought it because the price was a joke and it met my needs. All I use it is to surf, and see my emails when I am not on my lap top. Also I bring it with me for travel instead of my computer. I am sick and tired of reading post complaining about the PB. Most people bought it because of price, you got what you paid for. Stop whining.

iwasspartacus

How much stock do you own? I have enough where... well.. I've lost patience.

Posted via CB10

HabsSuck

Birdman you do realize that Nokia is trading 1.4x it's book value BlackBerry is currently 0.55x

Posted via CB10

Mister Sir

Maybe the market believes the asset value of BB is overstated.

birdman_38

If you must use a label, I prefer the term "realist".

Posted via CB10

boys_inter

Difference between negativity and realism that's for sure buddy.

birdman_38

Which is what?

Posted via CB10

buylocal_getaBB

I had no idea you were a stock expert! Reading your other posts I know you are definitely a pessimism expert, but nothing would seem to indicate you know anything about stocks.

Drop to 5$ LOL you have some good drugs where you are. Be honest, you picked that number straight out of the air didn't you. Your basically saying that BlackBerry is worth less than the cash on its blance sheet, and that, of course, is absurd in the extreme.

Read a book, spend less time on CB.

Posted via my Zed (not Zee) 10

birdman_38

I was in the 14% of those who predicted BlackBerry's stock would decrease last Friday. Didn't think it would take a 30% hit though!

Harley Kid

Although I am NO stock wizard either, I was at least able to place a stop margin gap at 2% with a "sell all". When I went on my phone to check the balance on the market and saw 0 shares, I knew it had to be bad. Furthermore, when I spoke to my broker later that afternoon, he recommended that I stay away from "Gambling" with BBRY at this time. Although he sees it pulling through in the future, its a high risk at this time due to its volatility. So, I guess I am a pessimist as well because I have chosen to still support blackberry, yet not so on the stock market.

newbaskerville

Great sale, i can finally afford to buy the stock now and buy lots of them while they are still cheap and undervalued. Hurray!

Posted via CB10

mandony

For whatever is said about Blackberry stock dropping from heaven,
it must be noted that the stock buyers are extremely fickle.
The 'gold' stock in the phone market has been Apple.
The stock today (Jul 3, 2013) is trading at $410. The 12 month high was 705 (now at 58% loss).
I see no new important products in their pipeline.

Do we have to worry about Blackberry? I say not. The new line of phones will take a year to fully roll out.
Only time will tell if these products will re-capture market share.

That being said, the tiger in the market is Samsung, which seems to have a lot of steam for new introduction of products.

birdman_38

And a lot of money.

Posted via CB10

mandony

For sure. Apple and Samsung have seemingly limited funds to move forward. BlackBerry must be careful to allocate marketing cash

mastermike87

If ya smelllllllaaaalalalalalalaloooo. What The Rock is cooking.

Posted via CB10

ingaz

Agreed
I doubt it will go lower then where it is now. As Q10 and Q5 continue to open in new markets revenue will remain consistent. A10 will be out for the holidays "hopefully" which will keep blackberry as a viable alternative to apple and droid. Transitions takes its toll. In my opinion the patient will be rewarded.

Posted via CB10

camera531

Like the patient Playbook owners were rewarded? Just playing devil's advocate...

TheRealFixxxer

Touché

I definitely don't want to be negative but nothing seems hopelessly optimistic right now.

We have a company bleeding and the one glimmer of hope to save it was BB10. There's no saying it still won't, but spending -anything- on producing, manufacturing, promoting and supporting brand new BB7 devices as you burn through cash reserves is a step in the exact opposite direction.

The Q5 and other lower cost BB10 devices should be the phones for emerging markets. Not new BB7 phones. If BBRY is catering to those unwilling to make the switch due to those users losing some of the legacy functionality, I have two things to say;

A) the current product wasn't good enough to keep existing user base, and has seen nothing but a decline. If making dramatic changes means you lose some of the ~75 million user base due to alienating them, but in return gain that many users and then some (hopefully ten-fold) due to it, would it not be worth it?

Or, and more what I would want;

B) keep core functionality and improve upon it. Some of the dramatic changes brought forth in BB10 wasn't good enough to gain that much needed user base and has only made others want to leave.

I'm not trying to say I have all or any of the answers, but I am just another guy that fears his next upgrade will be choosing the lesser of the iPhone/Android evil (read: Android).

I don't wish to be put in this position and I'm sure everyone here can at least agree on that.

~TheRealFixxxer

NotGoodIMO

I think the main problem with BB10 is that it's very resource intensive. It needs minimum of 2gb of RAM to run smoothly. That's not a good news and it will be very hard for Blackberry to make cheaper handsets for the emerging markets. Q5 is not really cheap and will not be able to compete with the cheaper Windows 8 or Android devices. I wonder if Blackberry made a wrong move by going BB10 route. I think Windows 8 probably would have been a better route for Blackberry considering its enterprise focus. I have a feeling Blackberry might end up in Microsoft camp ultimately, most likely as an acquisition by Microsoft.

TheRealFixxxer

I agree completely.

I'm sure if I did some digging around I could find this very same thing said by me well before BB10 came to fruition. Likely before BB7was introduced even.

BlackBerry is a solid system and the hardware is pretty good, but the delivery seems to be abysmal. In the hands of a well established (not the BlackBerry wasn't back in 2006/2007) company with the knowledge of how to push a product it could once again be a top competitor. But right now it's slowly breathing its dying breath.

I know the "doom and gloom" statements have been thrown around for years, but this company, for a few years now, has not turned around. I know change takes time, but it's had time.

During the earnings call podcast the CrackBerry team said, and I think they hit the nail on the head, that it's always the next product that's going to save them. The Z10 was supposed to, and then the Q10 was supposed to. Now the A10 will, etc. etc.

They have a solid product and I don't like any other OS nearly as much, but something is not being done right. Maybe it's just due to a small user base which leads to a lack of apps which is the bane of Blackberry's market share. No one likes being the red headed bastard child of the app market. No one wants to risk moving to a platform that literally takes years to get the apps they want. And in some cases requires side loading, but I won't even get started on that. It's great that we have the option, but really no one wants such an inconvenience. I sure as he'll don't.

I can only hope those with the knowledge and the power are able to get this company pointed in the direction it needs to go and implements the things necessary to get it there. But quite frankly, the current strategy is not working. That much is clearly.

Here's to hoping it happens because I can't go to Android again. I'd rather use a carrier pigeon.

~TheRealFixxxer

uncle_numpty

DING DING DING - we have a winner.

It's laughable that a mobile OS needs a minimum of 2gb of RAM to even be viable.

BBRY have been working on this 'saviour' os for over two years now and it's still not what anyone would call complete. The fact that it requires so much ram and that BBRY only just realised they couldn't get it working on their own hardware shows what a mess they are in internally.

For a company who sells communication solutions, its not even funny that they can't communicate between departments.

chaosdivine

I love this comment...it's exactly how I feel myself. This OS is just lipstick on a pig...lean it out and then we'll talk.

BB-04

Is that why windows phone 8 is less ready for enterprise then Android because Microsoft is enterprise focussed?

NotGoodIMO

windows 8 is good OS but it's also facing the same critical mass issue as BB10 plus it doesn't have much presence in the enterprise either. My point was that since Microsoft is well established in enterprise in the PC market, it would have been easier for Blackberry to come up with a device on windows 8 which would use Microsoft applications like office for free and integrate with its key enterprise features. The good thing with Windows 8 is that it can run on very low end hardware specs, resulting in a low price tag products which is key requirement to be successful in the emerging markets. Nokia has windows 8 phones with 512 MB of RAM which are super smooth, how do you suggest Blackberry compete with in that segment? The other advantage would have been reaching critical mass for big app developers. If both Nokia and Blackberry were on Windows 8 then I believe both companies would have benefited.

Puz_zled

That's why I saw the Playbook efforts (to get BB10 running well on what would now be low end hardware) to be worth the time and effort and expense if they could then turn around and use that BB10 light version on new entry level low cost BB10 phones. Alas.....

From my sweet BB10 Neutrino powered Z10 :D

mandony

There is a difference between PB and phones.
The cost of development of either demands huge amounts. For a relativity small company like BlackBerry to do both best is hard.
There are better opportunities in the phone market than tablets.
That being said, I still enjoy my PlayBook without the bells and whistles of OS10

Posted via CB10

arvind1983

Enough is enough. I think Thor will eventually sell the company. Its sad, but BB screwed their loyal customers. They can't keep their word.

fazer105

I've always supported BlackBerry, absolutely loved their phones, despite having to reboot BBOS every day. For the first time I'm thinking the company won't make it. As a result I think my next phone will be an Android.

Jemala

Exactly my feeling although I've never had reboot problems.I bought a Xperia Z Tablet last week and will soon drop my Z10 to buy a Androïd phone.

w0lfgang

+1....my words/thoughts exactly!

Mikhou

I was patient With the PB, Now I turn Myself to Apple, disgusted lies and false hopes form BBRY!

Chicago777Guy

You also said that you respected Gus from Scotia and that he has been covering BBRY For a long time...his estimates turned out to be the most crazy with 70 cents EPS.
Not pointing finger but I don't think trusting analysts is good idea..however you might be right at this one that we are probally close to bottom here on EV.

Posted via CB10

Tim Stanford

Buy now. Hold/Sell after Q3 results which should give the market and BlackBerry fans a true indication of Blackberry 10.

Disclosure: I have shares and the above statement are my views and should be used for opinion only.

Posted via CB10

Anilu7

I agree. Have been following BBRY and BB.TO (TSX) and in my opinion with the current cash balance and the most significant debt (that I could see on Friday) being Venezuela, I think that it may go slightly lower then increase moderately over Q2. (Heins did give guidance of a Q2 loss.)

Disclosure: I own shares of Research in Motion (currently called) and the above statement reflects my personal opinion only and should not be relied upon for investment advice.

ptZ10

What the heck is a "May quarter"? Who writes this crap???

Posted via CB10

Kevin Michaluk

Uhh... the quarter ending in May. Fiscal Q1 2014 ended May 31st... earnings reported June 28th.  That use of terminology isn't out of line.

birdman_38

Haha Kevin, love the delivery!

Posted via CB10

elicash

No sizeable investor will have faith in the company under Heins. He misled the media and street massively and hasn't delivered. The stock will hit rock bottom the day before Heins is turfed.

dondizm

Now the only thing bugging all of us is the upcoming OS7 device... are we expecting another device that needs a regular reboot? Let's go BlackBerry 10 all the way!

Posted via CB10 for Z10

BerryRipe

I would rather reboot my phone on my own terms rather than having random reboots from a BB10 phone.

Dukun

Not sure if this was just a point from the past you're making or if you are still dealing with this, but wanted to chime in. I'm in the USA on T-Mobile, had a lot of rebooting problems, multiple times a day, and everything went away with the 10.1 update. Seems VERY solid now. Maybe you've read about this already.

Posted via CB10

dondizm

I know BlackBerry 10 eliminated the rebooting issue. I'm worried about the upcoming OS7 device which would have the same problems as the previous devices

Posted via CB10 for Z10

pididipop

The market usually always over reacts. It will start recovering as things are not as bad as they seem. BlackBerry is basically changing much of their business plan, so people need to be patient. They now have two good phones and a solid OS. Things will only get better.

Posted via CB10

Thunderbuck

I believe we're at least close to a bottom, though I acknowledge we're going to see a lot more volatility over the next quarter and it could certainly dip lower at times.

Of course I'm disappointed in 2.7 million BB10 units in Q1-14. I don't think it's criminally negligent, but it obviously could have been better. I'm in the camp, though, that believes that it's a launch issue as much as a product issue, and that as the OS improves and we see more decent app releases that the overall line will become more attractive. I'm also hoping that the upcoming A-series is good enough to knock people's hats in the creek (no, not a given by any stretch).

I believe that they've gone all-out, and that they've done very nearly everything they could.

One thing, while I think promotion has been reasonably good, it hasn't caught a lot of attention. BB may need to seriously consider a bigger, edgier campaign that emphasizes the ways that it's different from the competition. Just the fact that BlackBerry is a much smaller company than Apple, Google, and Microsoft, and its partnership model means it's not collecting user data on the same scale, should be some kind of selling point.

I'm still long--I have to be, given the haircut I took last week. I think the magnitude of the drop was amplified by a chorus of shorts going "I told you so!" rather than actual merit, and I'd buy more if I had the ready cash. The loss on the quarter was small (miniscule when you take that one-time Argentinian FX thing), and in most respects BB did okay.

They fell short on BB10 sales, and no question it's a cause for concern, but I still #BB10Believe...

theRock1975

Well said Thunderbuck!!

Posted via CB10

Superfly_FR

you.just.took.my.words.out.of.my.mind !
Thanks. +1K

randall2580

The biggest problem for BB10 remains the part that one of the thing that "sets them apart" is the need to side load to get major apps on the phone. John and Jane Q Public want no part of that. Until that's cured, the phones will not sell as well as they could have.

SlcCorrado

I think 6 bucks was rock bottom, haha. So glad I bought and didn't listen to all the naysayers. Even on CB people were spouting off "this is the end" and "don't buy". I hope this time is the same way, but honestly, I don't think I'm going to buy more either way. Just gonna wait it out

jcraig

What are the odds of the WWE app hitting BB10 and an editorial Rock reference in the same day. Great article as always.

br14

Someone is clearly buying at $10. At which price in my opinion it's a bargain. I'm waiting to see if it drops a little further before getting back in. Hard to see too many getting out just at the moment. (Though no doubt the usual dance will be arranged for the next earnings call).

The fundamentals are exactly the same as they were prior to the earnings call, and they're not likely to change until BES10 gains some traction and corporations buy into the devices. It's hard to see why they wouldn't since BES10 is a market leader - and that's before we consider security.

The same value proposition that made BlackBerry a great buy for corporations over the past decade is still valid today. But corporations don't make purchasing decisions overnight, and so the growth in device sales will be slow and steady rather than explosive. But when they do buy in, the potential for revenue is excellent. Even if companies don't buy BlackBerry 10 devices, the annual license fee for Android and iPhone devices should still generate huge revenues.

BlackBerry has really never been a consumer device (prosumer - yes, consumer - no) at least in the USA. The devices are not yet available globally, and have barely scratched the surface in the US (not helped by the fact there has been precious little advertising) and so it begs the question why the world and his wife thought they would do better than the lower end of guidance they actually met.

I still don't understand why BBRY is such an emotional stock. Loads of investors apparently buy it thinking they're about to make it big, only to have their hopes dashed after every earnings call - when they sell at a loss - it's nuts. You can bet the bank there'll be a drop after each call. I have no idea why but I doubt it's an accident. If they'd made a profit the price would still have fallen on Friday.

If you buy BBRY it has to be for the long haul. The company has made some disastrous strategic errors (and apparently still is making the occasional blunder) and is going to take a year or two to turnaround. And they absolutely have to cut more cost. A company turning over $16 billion should be making money.

ACarter100

Good read and I agree with most of what was said. Personally I'm not buying until the day before the Shareholders Meeting. Something has to come out if that meeting. If not, that's the day I anticipate it reaching a bottom. Not $6 or $7. But $8. We shall see. I own BBRY shares as well.

Typed via BB Z10. Find me on Twitter @ahsonn_carter

kidshah

Definitely can go lower. Agree that in the context, this wasnt THAT bad of a quarter. But who says that the next cant be worse? It all rests on the Q5's traction. Pricing it too high+cross platform could spell DOOM for BlackBerry.

A10 can flop as well, if its not top of the line specs. Based on BlackBerry experience I really doubt it will be. In that case no more BlackBerry in 2015.

Posted via CB10

kidshah

Cross platform BBM*

Posted via CB10

triplekia

Well, it bounced back up because of BB10 news. Now that its proven that BB10 isn't such a hot seller, what other tricks do they have to bounce it back? I'm looking at $5 stock that will persist for a long time.

Posted via CB10

4ron

BlackBerry needs to make a big push... now!

ACarter100

Question that bewilders me is that BlackBerry is almost in the same position that Apple was before they did the deal with Microsoft. Apple was about to sue pants off Microsoft for infringing on the products, But BlackBerry isn't going after any company for infringing on theirs. So confused???

Typed via BB Z10. Find me on Twitter @ahsonn_carter

TDSWIM

They got a new head of legal. We'll see if he's a little more aggressive.

Psykotic.Engineer

Thanks Chris for the insight! For those of us that don't have the financial expertise it's really nice to know what's going on.

Posted via CB10

Parthiv Shah

1) My chart suggests to me that BB shall get no demand until it kisses $8.80 to $9. For me that looks like a bottom.
2) Fundamentally cash burn is a concern as in the next 3-4 quarters we can see more cash burn and marketing spend. This is why the Alica Keys hiring and wasting millions of marketing dollars was something I always hated.
3) All of my hopes are on tremendous response from the Q10. The 2.7 Million number would hardly have a minute % of the Q10. Fingers crossed that US sales of Q10 are encouraging. Wish we see a number of like 4 million BB10 sold in the next quarter which shall have sales from Q5, Q10 and Z10. If BB does not deliver 4 million units with these 3 out God help them.
4) Sorry for harsh language but BB has got the most arrogant and egoistic management as I fail to understand how could they repeat the same mistake AGAIN AND AGAIN of over pricing their products. Z10 was expensive from the world go, Now Q5 a plastic-y phone priced so expensively? You can buy a 1.4 GhZ Quad Core with 2 GB RAM and 5 inch screen and an Android platform with far more number of and more appealing apps for the youth which BB is trying to target with the Q5 and Z5.
5) Why the hell are you not releasing the Z5 simultaneously? You think the Z5 will have better specifications than the Q5. No it shall have the same specs as the Q5 but with a full touch. Why this mistake? Why can't you dump the market with all you got in the mid tier market and show users that BB is still alive? Totally Fail to get these guys??
6) When you promised 4 colours of the Q5 why in some markets you are launching just 2 colors and in some just 3? I personally thought pink would have been unique as NO other company offers the same. Why are you differing the pink color Q5?

TDSWIM

Q10 user here. If I didn't have the money for a Q10, I'd for sure have gone second generation and gotten a Samsung S3 which is probably better than the Q5 will be if one can get over the loss of keyboard. If Q5s were sold with BIS and unlimited internet still it might be a different story.

Vector-SS

This is what I don't get as well. I have no idea what goes on behind their closed doors, but the fragmentation is slowly but surely killing them. OS updates fragmentation, model fragmentation, and now "color" fragmentation :/

Leroy Padilla

I bought when it hit $6.67. Agree wait till Q3 and you'll see the real beginning of BBRY and the transition will take that long to really see the win or loss.

Posted via CB10

Jim Wolfson

Did you really buy at $6.67? And you didn't sell, or have a stop order in place when it was around $18 and started to decline? You left all that money on the table?

If you're STILL holding those share, wow. Just wow. You know you're supposed to sell when the price is high, right? So what's your plan as it starts to rise yet again (after it keeps going down for a bit)? What are you waiting for - $100?

A long time ago, I got smacked around like that a couple times. Then I studied hard and learned to trade.

deroubry

I just want to applaud the photo used for this article... Well done CrackBerry, well done indeed.

Posted via CB10

DiscoKing426

My bet is Microsoft buys BlackBerry.

Posted via CB10

jas1978

MicroBerry. That might take time to get used to.

Posted via CB10

wyrdfool

Soft Micro Berry. Doesn't instill confidence.

Posted from Z10 via CB10

xBURK

I agree to the big push. I realize they are trying their best, but it frustrates me to think that this might have been avoided with a better marketing plan? It's hard not to get disappointed when knowing they didn't learn from the past in this regard. So sick of wondering what could have been. The only thing that cheers me up is my Z10. They can't take that away from me....or can they?

Posted via CB10

Meaty123

If BBRY turned the company around in just one quarter, I'd say they are all a bunch of miracle workers.... I don't know any company that made a turn around in just one quarter ... Give it until the end of the year or at least next quarter to see where they stand and what direction they are heading ...

fairfaxnut

Buying dollars for 50 cents is a very lonely venture. You will never make true wealth in the stock market by buying stock on a cheery consensus. Pessimism is a investors best friend. BlackBerry represents that today.

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dusdal

..blood in the streets and all that jazz :)..

Posted via CB10

theRock1975

+1000000

Posted via CB10

jic999

The CBOE have weekly At The money options you can buy them with a expiration of one to two weeks. I have used them on every earnings release. I bought the July 5th $15 Strike PUTS for 60 cents a sold them for $3.80 each the earnings day Crush. Just to hedge some of your losses.

Posted via CB10

Duffman19

The stock will hit 6.50-7 UNLESS BBM when cross platform gets millions of downloads. Good news will drive it around a bit

Posted via CB10

TDSWIM

Not unless the first few million downloads are fake apps. They need to quit announcing things before they're ready. It's possible the fake may not have even surfaced if the announcement and launch happened simultaneously.

jic999

The USA is the leader in Smartphone technology and App development. If the USA Z10 and Q10 do not get the 10.2 update when it launches, BlackBerry is toast. You heard it here first.

Posted via CB10

BruvvaPete

I think Samsung kinda took the prize a while ago.

quizm

The market is always right. Blackberry needs a lot of work. It is split now over too many operating systems. It is still pushing os7 and analysts are counting bb10 results as a sign of success? How much is the smartphone market really moving now? Huge buying last year for iphone5 and galaxy s3 and BB missed that window. All phone sales now not so robust as before? Gaining traction in this market is slow and difficult. Strategy must be to keep in business and wait it out trying to find the niche. Dont blow all reserves. Keep in the game. It must get out of this syndrome where people see it as losing. Still Blackberry's best market is business. It should make offers to firms that simply cannot be refused on economic terms. Drop this Cadillac mentality. Q10 is the best communications device on the market but its price should be much lower. People respond to economics. Carriers too. What about renting BES to small firms, even large groups or families with special features to enable the to benefit from these. In emerging markets push Q5 price point to the very limit. Get volume over profit. BB10 needs to take over and soon.

elicash

Not sure why analysts believe the service business can be stand-alone. all of the BES service revenue is tied to blackberry devices, not third party devices. if they can't get people to upgrade to the new platform, those will eventually go away. They made the wrong bet on QNX and Heins. The board has another corporate governance issue on their hands, with a CEO running around the world showing outright bravado and then producing horrific results and outlook. Time to ship Heins back to Bavaria and send the QNX dream packing and adopt Android or Windows. Heins did something friday few thought possible: he seriously impaired the value of a brand that was already borderline obsolete. No excuses for his behaviour on Friday.

theRock1975

Negatory!

Bes10 works with ios and android. They will get revenue from all platform.

Posted via CB10

elicash

BES 10 will only serve to offset what is going to be lost from BES. Service revenues are in massive decline. There are many competing MDM providers. Remenber, the MDM industry was less than $800 million last year, while blackberry's service revenue was almost $4 billion last year...what they are losing is far greater (by several orders of magnitude) to what they might gain managing other devices.

elicash

There should be an inquiry as to whether Laziridis sold his shares post his May 1 departure. This company has an ugly history of securities fraud and corporate governance snafus.

Aljean Thein

Sounds to me like it's time to buy some stocks..and wait it out. Can't go wrong with $6 a stock :)

Posted via CB10

fazer105

Unless it goes to $0?

denana20

Maybe if they had apps like the other competitors. Only thing I dislike about my BlackBerry

Posted via CB10

NotGoodIMO

Absolutely not, this could easily go to $7. I have no confidence in Heins at all. He might be a good guy but he lacks charisma and vision and I can't believe he screwed the sombre earnings day with with even more negative news of BB10 not coming to playbook. Board needs to get rid of him ASAP and stock will rise. Look what happened to Groupon and Zynga.

LordDraco

The weakest link of BB10 Strategy is the pricing. Too expensive for half done product at launching.

Posted via CB10

pfresh63

+1!

Also if BB is going to gain profits for the A10 and g5, they will gain it within a quarter and then lose it all again because of no app and slow updates.

Proud of being a BB10 owner, but it seems like customers always come last.

Jakob Greve

Rock bottom would be at 6 where you assume that the company in itself is worthless. I don't know was gonna happen but I hate these kinds of high-speculative posts besides I don't see stockprice as being crusial to BB. Just read about Nokias dire straits considering switching from WP to Android being dependent on their feature phone. there'll always be room for 3rd place and BB seems to hold that position to some extend. New OS controlled by BB Stronghold with security and MDM rolling out new models, basicly in balance from a financial point of wiev strong positions in emerging markets

jcarlos100

Get urself up blackberry come on

Posted via CB10

BlackberryFan777

I think it can go lower. For a couple of years now, there's been a constant framing of BlackBerry's future as contingent on BB10. The brand has been coupled with phrases like "BB10 is make or break" and "if the BB10 launch isn't successful, it's the end of BlackBerry." In the long run, your more balanced, objective view of the value -- taking into account enterprise services and IP holdings and such -- may prevail, but not as a backstop against short term bleeding on every announcement that BB10 might not be succeeding.

In sum, the causal logic people have embraced is: If BB10 does not succeed, BB fails. The news they heard of Friday was that BB10 may not be succeeding. Therefore...

Marvin Tang

I can see Stone Cold and John Cena had relentless assault of Rock Bottom but still manage to Get up and Fight, that's what I see of Blackberry they were the underdog, Blackberry 10 did deliver and people were happy.

BruvvaPete

Once again I see a lot of negativity and people spelling the doom of BlackBerry. This mantra has been beaten to death for about four years now. It's beyond getting old.

rickgainsmith

With any luck they get bought out by a company that instils customer service and not the bs we've put up with over the last few years. #playbook

If not let them close up!

Posted via CB10

Ndogg099

I like the theme of the article but I hate how it's because BBRY is not doing so well. Damn! Hoping for positive results from now on.

Posted via CB on the Z10

Brutal Efficiency

Business is about money.

For BlackBerry it went like this:

$400,000,000 increase in revenue/17% growth ------------> Stocks take a nose dive.

Baahahahahahahahaha.......... makes very little sense!!!!!

My Tech-Fleet: Q10; Z10; PlayBook; Surface Pro; Xbox 360; HP TouchPad; iPod Touch 5

theRock1975

Yeah 16 cent loss (10 cent loss from venezuela) on an $18 asset. The kids conclude the end is near.

I think if people just learned the basics like what is an asset, what is a liability, what is debt they would be shocked how cheap the stock is.

No debt, not a penny, never had any debt. No where near bankruptcy. If it comes to the point where huge losses are projected, the company will evaluate how to return $18+ to shareholders.

Posted via CB10

Pilchard

Sorry to be negative, but I think it's over and rock bottom is going to be zero. Kodak ended at zero, no reason why Blackberry won't. The market moved past them. Email is not the number 1 use of a smartphone any more, and it offers nothing compelling. It doesn't have the critical mass to attract all app developers, and the hardware is always at least one generation behind. And they are expensive too. Maybe the stock price will have a "dead cat bounce" when Q10 sales initially roll in, but buying these shares are only for the foolhardy. If you get the urge to buy, say to yourself "no BB10 on Playbook, no BB10 on Playbook" until you change your mind ;-)

seageath

Hope "Crackberry" will provide a "crack" solution for Playbook owner (me)
Release the crack-en !!!!

mr634

I think it will be reduced to penny stocks and be a brand that will disappear in 2014

Posted via CB10

Toxic17

BBs strategy has weakened its stock. Its lack of momentum to get the z10 and q10 out the door around the world at the same time put the nail in the coffin.

Now with BB10 updates being fragmented there appears a lack of commitment from BB. the initial BB10 surge is over and BB have fallen asleep and what are they doing? nothing, allowing the media/stock to go into meltdown.

Sorry but Thorsten does not come over as the man that should be in charge. I think BB needs a kick up the backside, and shareholders should be demanding blood.

ChrisInSD

How many times have you said this? You once told us the company's intrinsic value was $12 a share and could not possibly go below that (when it was trading around $20 if I remember). These stock updates are becoming a bit laughable. Last week you were highlighting analysts (who you "really respected") who were bullish on the stock pre-earnings.

Whenever you suggest someone you "really respect" they are almost always Canadian (such analysts are more bullish toward the stock--this a fact based one their buy/sell rating, not an opinion).

And after glossing over the negative news (which you never delve into other than to say how it must be wrong, even though its usually proven right) you go to great pains to explain why bulls are more credible (a la the soliloquy about Wells Fargo a week or two ago being a big institutional investor and their word had to be worth more than the other 80%).

I'm a shareholder and a fan. But these columns are just silly. Apparently CrackBerry management has decided the faithful want only the Kool Aid and nothing but.

After the disappointing earnings release, after all, we were directed to participate in a contest where we could only win by saying positive things about BlackBerry. Give me a break--this is a GADGET, not a cult.

Arthur108

Brilliant! You nailed it! Totally agree! :)

gatorboi352

"Apparently CrackBerry management has decided the faithful want only the Kool Aid and nothing but."

Uh, are you new here? OF COURSE the faithful only want the Kool-Aid around here. Just go read any forum post ever.

EDIT: "Give me a break--this is a GADGET, not a cult."

Ok yeah, you HAVE to be new around here.

EggTarts

If you were the buy, it was better when it was $6, you'd make a 50% profit even with the price at $9

SplatHead

What helps me is seeing BB10 features, seeing what the future holds...

BBRY NEEDS to start showing off or "leak" versions of the OS.. Its one thing to look at some flip board saying when X feature might hit, text only article about what BBRY could be doing, reading a community brain storm thread, wishing your BB10 did X feature just like your co-workers Other-OS phone.. Its another when you can actually SEE and maybe USE sed new feature..

Maybe its just my messed up head but if you want people to hear you and notice you in a LARGE crowd... you need to scream and dance a jig.. If it wasn't for CB and leaked alpha/beta/hybrid OS's.. I'm 99% sure I would have ditched my Z10 long ago (Note I'm an AT&T user)... Hell I should be getting a check from BBRY for using my phone as a demo/display for 10.2 features. Got Z10's for 3 of my users 2 weeks ago.. after about a week 2 came back to me requesting something else. One was for random reboots and the other was because "The apps suck"... Loaded 10.1, showed off 10.2 features and the KICKASS features that were leaked today. Well they like the Z now..... but ask me everyday when 10.2 will hit...

BBRY GIVE / SHOW US REASONS TO BELIEVE! -- (thorsten, do a jig!)

bjschey

I think the market way overreacted to the quarterly report. It's almost as if they actually thought it would not just beat expectations, but be fully recovered, and be a huge player against Apple & Android in just about two quarters. I see the stock hovering around this point for a while, probably until August/September, then slowly start to climb. With 10.2 coming in the near future, plus a new flagship device, I can see the stock raising more in the fall. Especially if next quarters report is better. If it's not better, expect another plunge. I don't expect to see massive improvements though until at least the end of the year, possible beginning of next year.

It's going to take a lot more than one bad quarterly report to get me to sell my shares.

Posted via CB10

Arthur108

Blackberry is doomed. It's written in the stars!
Palm dejavu! :(

mikeycollins13

Hi Chris,
Solid analysis but it does not take into account how completely inept senior management has been in the relaunch.

The brand destruction from Friday's call will have tangible blow back to BES10 sales AND Q10 sales.

They have put this comeback in a tail spin and the Bears are firmly in control here.

Sadly.

Posted via CB10

BlueNoserBESguy

Honestly unless BlackBerry has something revolutionary and jaw dropping in the next version or two, I see a buyout.

Posted via CB10

javirique

I don't know what I'll do phone wise. I already did and do some android an d ios. Maybe is going back to my startac. But BlackBerry is done. Even the c rack berry readers agree. Maybe the server business is a niche they can concentrate on and do well. But pleeeeeease release 10.1 on Att already! That is all I care about right now. Lol!

Posted via CB10

fearmantis

BB will survive. BB Z10 is awesome!!!!!

Apollo_IV

Your editorials are brilliant. And I realize this is completely off topic but... you're hot! Unf

lawguyman

I am sorry to say that BB10 is failing in the marketplace. I am not sure if it can be turned around. This implies that the company may not have a long shelf life anymore.

This possibility is not even mentioned even though it is a very real possibility.

Now, the hope is not BB10 but enterprise management revenue?

Please everyone, do your own homework before investing.

I love my Z10 but I'm one of the only ones apparently.

Posted via CB10

austerus

No, it's not rock bottom - it can (and likely will) sink a little more. In short term, without a believable shift in strategy, I also don't see a recovery.
The financial results were sad, but not really surprising. Given the platform that is in essence a big breaking change with no backwards compatibility and no upgrade in sight for existing user and adding prohibitively priced new devices, the sales weren't going to be stellar.
Factor in a still developing app store, it's fairly clear that the break (if any) for Blackberry is yet to come. I still have faith it will come.
Speaking as a developer, the platform is great. The devices are competitive and the software is usable and snappy. Blackberry has the technology going for it, all that's lacking is a strategy that will keep the old customers and convince new ones that they're worth it.

smoothrunnings

It's going to continue dropping until its reaches the penny stocks. Investors and market analyst around the world already have this notion that BlackBerry will never be number one or two again, instead they will be the tiny company that is at the back of pack. These same people who think this also drive the market which feed the media who help drive it even more. So you see BlackBerry (RIM) is doomed! :)

LordDraco

The key to BlackBerry survival is simple. Let US company or investor buy it. After Nokia bow down to Microsoft, look how media and the market back Nokia up...
BB10 VS WP8, tecnically and design speaking BB10 is better. Ia not about who build better product, but who has strongest influence on the market.
*just said a simple fact*

Posted via CB10

sakin13

Sadly for most of us... BBRY stock has proven that :

Rock bottom has a basement...

Posted via CB10

gillaz

Revenue is bound to increase if you are selling to more markets and have wider range of phones. However margins are still being squeezed, cant see many big apps on the way. 95% of the worlds smartphones have physical keyboards, how is a niche product like BB10 devices with a physical keyboard going to save BBRY?

BerryRipe

I really want to believe but I'm losing faith in BB. I love my 9930 and I will not upgrade to a half baked BB10 device. I hate the day that I have to decide on another os platform, very sad day that may be!

smoothrunnings

BBRY's stock fell another 0.52% in Wednesday pre-market bringing the price down to $9.65 a share. It will likely continue to fall today bringing it closer to the $5.00 per share mark.

gillaz

Sick of hearing people say it will be better next quarter. Delusional

maskins69

I am a Z10 owner and bought it on first weekend of release in the UK. I bought it because as someone who had used a BlackBerry for some years, I wanted to show some brand loyalty.

BB10 and the Z10 are great - the hardware is solid and the OS is better than the major competitors. However, my work phone is an iPhone and I tend to use that more for things like Spotify, Netflix etc. These apps fit in with my lifestyle. For right or wrong, these apps are popular because they allow access to a service that people want or are already subscribed to.

BB10 needs to attract or invest in getting major app players on to BlackBerry World and start to market it that way. BB10 should advertise as having the apps you love on a fresh and exciting new platform. I have no doubt I am showing naivety in terms of encouraging dev support but financial incentives work wonders. This will affect business users too - a work phone is increasingly blurring into the personal phone territory in terms of use.

I was also burned by the lack of BB10 for the PB and this is another issue. I have no other platform for BB10 other than my Z10. Why would I make BlackBerry World my first stop for media content if it is limited to my phone? A tablet or larger device with the same app support will give a viable alternative to iOS and Android.

I have read a few comments on various threads that have been along the lines of 'if you want the same as Android/iPhone then just buy one'. That's the issue - people are doing that. They want the new devices and OS but they don't want to sacrifice services they have already bought into.

trsbbs

Sales by selling more old phones then the new BB10 phones.

Nice spin......

Using a BlackBerry Z10

yyzberry

You think revenue will grow from here? You're nuts. It will plummet. The new OS is a massive flop and the products will be returned unsold. They should shut it down now. What are the costs to dissolve this company?

HabsSuck

But revenue did increase despite shipping only 2.7 bb10 and decline in service revenue. How about that? Too many on this thread have no clue about business and more importantly the transition that BlackBerry is implementing, no clue whatsoever.

Posted via CB10

scalemaster34

Chris... that all sounds good!

Of course you really are making a LOT of assumptions.
1) Don't think the profits can be sustained, BBRY is going to have to discount prices in association with more marketing to get devices moving off the shelves.
2) Impressions - Think there will be some IT departments (especially ones that invested in the PlayBook) that are going to use this quarters results to help them decide on what MDM & Devices to use moving forward. Results weren't good - lots of negativity and doubt about the company's future, this could affect the decisions of those that don't want to "invest" in a platform and then see that "investment" lost one or two years down the road. They'll play it safe and go with a MDM platform and mobile devices who's future is not in question.
3) Company Value - last year I was hearing $8-$9 a share was the value of the company's assists, including the patents. Company has sold some assists since then to build up their cash, but maybe the value of the patents has increase... who really knows what they are worth.

I think there is still room before we see the bottom, unless BBRY has some good new very SOON!

lc42

We have not seen the capitulation point yet, that I believe is around 5$ or 6$. But I have often been wrong...It could be lower! :-(

Jemala

Quite sure the SP will drop below 5$ buy the end of the month.

diogoteixeira87

We don't know about the future, but I believe that have faith and work hard are really important to success. I have faith. And we can see BlackBerry working hard. I think things will work out.

Posted via CB10

jdsharpe

I mean this really all depends on the next steps from BlackBerry.

If indeed Marketing is revamped, PR is on a major blitz in the US, the Q5 rocks, and the A10's design brilliant, then by December 2013 BlackBerry stock will be at high of about $20.

I say invest now because the Shareholders meeting is not going to be nice. People want answers. I know that I've lost tons of money off BlackBerry's foolishness. And I've had enough but I see a bargain with BlackBerry stock $BBRY

QuickDime

I personally think this type of talk is one quarter too early, before I get torched by everyone, I think it rides now on the next quarter! Now hear me out....

I think BlackBerry 's mistake was the fragmented launched of devices, I want to see a full quarter of Z10, Q10 & Q5 devices, that's the initial line finally all released, let's see those numbers!

I also think they need a crazy summer campaign of advertising, I'm no marketing expert but we need a campaign that makes it so compelling you just have to have the device! I find the Ads to be just eh, the exclusion of that Tame Impala song was great, but the visuals could have been again more compelling! To me the biggest selling point is the on glass typing experience, people seem to want a great typing experience so exploit that you have the best on glass and physical experience of any device for composing any type of text.

I don't believe by a long shot that they're dead yet, but I'm getting a tad nervous again!

Swiped On My Zed10 Via CB10

tygros

Chris,
Need to double check the report on cash flow. There was not a tax recoverable this Q. That was Q4. All of the cash buildup this Q was legit... Anyone who tells you otherwise is quoting last Q analysts. Help to change your tone any?

Posted via CB10

skelleytech

I agree, we'll know more after the real Q2 where BBRY stands on these new devices. I don't believe they have 1-3 years to market and media though. That needs to happen now, even if they have to dip into the funds a little to make it happen. If they take too long to perfect advertising and media, other platform giants Apple/Google will only improve on their technologies and they have the money to invest and......they don't need to advertise/market much. I know Apple is feeling the heat a little as we're seeing at least here in the States a surge in commercials for the iPhone. Google on the other hand, holding steady just on their name alone. Heins needs a lesson in Marketing that doesn't include a short multi-million dollar clip displaying the 'Blackberry' name during the Superbowl or Alicia Keys. Nothing personal Alicia! Maybe he needs to try to get on shows, GMA or Today Show, Kelly and Michael, The View......I don't care which ones. There he can demonstrate and show the products in their entirety and their full capability. If Oprah (back in the day) came out and said she uses a Q10 or Z10, we'd have 60 or 70% of woman here in the US buying those devices..

Ray Britton1

CrackBerry may be running a better business than blackberry. I'm just saying.

Jamaican me crazy bout my z10. Respect

Pard

How could they have been so enthusiastic at BlackBerry Live and deliver this kind of quarter. They bagged the believers(analysts), they hammered the longs, they screwed the faithful that were counting on a PlayBook upgrade, and they revived the BlackBerry is dead, next Palm chatter. We are in a death spiral, the shorts are in complete control and who is left to believe. The chum is in the water and some sharks are going to take them out for a fraction of the potential value. Very sad situation. When they said they were firing on all cylinders I thought it was a Bentley, not a freaking Yugo.

koool1

Keep the faith guys.

BlackBerry 10 has barely begun corporate deployment and Q10 just came out in the US. Things will pick up.

BlackBerry's come back was never going to happen in 3 months and there will be bumps. Love your BlackBerry 10 handset and spread the word!

Posted via CB10

Playbook007

BlackBerry is done in my world. Long time supporter now off the BlackBerry wagon. I will now advise all the people around me that I have seen the light and they were right. Heins screwed me and my company last week for the last time. What idiot would add the PlayBook hammer to a day of a bad report. Again I love the PlayBook bridged to my Bold 9000 combination. But I lost that function with the z10 and now no hope of getting it back. So at work, where I have invested in BlackBerry and resisted Apple and Android along with WP what does Heins do? He single handedly dismantled our mobile solution. Don't care about bb10 on playbook just want the full bridge back. That was by far the best corporate mobile solution. How could he abandon the corporate world so stupidly. So I will enjoy watching the shares goto zero. I own shares, and will not sell them. I want to own them till they hit zero. I want to remember last Friday to the end of BB! Thanks Heins for crawling into a hole for the last 3 months. You were becoming the CEO that wouldn't quit, people were actually believing that BlackBerry was turning the corner with a new leader. And that folks is what sells phones. Confidence in the future! Well unless you get front and center soon, start selling the company again and the future, you have no future BlackBerry!

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!

the_sleuth

Chris, I value your analysis. However, you make one very big assumption: BBRY management can execute. So far, the marketing message has been mixed to inept. U.S. carriers have shown lukewarm marketing effort to BlackBerry brand. The last earnings report shows Z10 as a product, it is a dud. Smartphone product cycles are getting shorter. Unless Q10 and Q5 can show blockbuster sales then BBRY is done. I have turned into a skeptic. We shall see.....it's bottom of the 5th inning but where are BBRY's heavy hitters?

HabsSuck

Fragmented launch or phased roll out as BlackBerry calls it was done in order to protect the Balance sheet

Posted via CB10

Notcho

Up up and away. Go BlackBerry.

NickMcBride

Buy Now!! I have shares and am getting more thanks to the decline! Get it while it's low! The company has potential they just need time the products out just keep believing a little longer and we will all be rewarded! Go BlackBerry!

Posted via CB10

lc42

Averaging down! Humm... Not so sure about that. Remember Nortel, Palm,etc... Anyway, good luck.

sgt50

Just bought 50 shares because I believe, and that is all I could afford right now :)

In Limbo

Greetings all you BB enthusiasts. I am a Windows Phone/Nokia fan over at WPCentral. I just wanted to put in my two cents. To those who are trying to stay positve, just hang in there. When WP was supposedly in trouble (and more personal to me, Nokia), I stuck with them. They pulled through fine. Negativity does nothing folks -- you know that. Just keep your heads up! Cheers!

Mister Sir

And how has that worked out for you?

In Limbo

***Attention Crackberry Members: I found your traitor, lol.
Seriously though, it's worked fine. WP and Nokia are doing great.Your comments are so depressing bro. You should jump ship and stop wasting your time since you hate BB so much. This isn't even my domain and I'm embarrased for the other Crackberry Members.

boys_inter

You sure you aren't bird man_38 in disguise?

In Limbo

Quite sure I'm just "In Limbo". Sorry to disappoint buddy. I must say though, I'm pleasantly surprised by how much more I like the layout of the forum at CrackBerry. I love WPCentral, but the forums could use some work.

AnotherBillJ

I have little interest in stock price, I just want a phone that's amazing from a company that will be around. My Z10 Lives up to its reputation and I believe BlackBerry will continue to improve for many years to come.

adonesc

While any rational person cannot deny that the company is still on shaky ground, this talk and speculation of BlackBerry 's imminent demise and outright failure is premature and at least to me wrong and short sighted. Besides let's consider the sources, hedge fund mangers, financial analysts and stock brokers (in other words the worst scumbags possible), people who thrive on negativity and chaos as vultures picking on a carcasse. To them this is an opportunity to make money, pure and simple, without any regards to the technological achievements of this company, or their inovation
and vision.

If we were to think about this a bit longer it would make sense that the financial market would want BlackBerry to get to such a sorry financial state that failure is in sight. If they can force the company to start cannibalising itself, then eventually it will have to start selling pieces of itself, including those very attractive and valuable patents. In other words, the company would become a lot more profitable in pieces than as a whole. Then the market vultures would swoop in and scoop up those pieces for as low a price as possible and then turn around and sell them for a lot more, thus making at worst a tidy profit, at best a financial boon.

To me as a consumer, with limited knowledge by the way, about all these issues, BlackBerry looks exactly like a company in transition. We all know from personal experience that when in transition, that is when things are most uncertain, when we are at our most vulnerable. Often we are faced with only two choices, either we press forward towards our destination and the desired outcome, or we give up and let the chips fall where they may. I would venture to guess that that is pretty much what BlackBerry is facing right now as a company.

Besides that is the nature of change and transition, one step forward two steps back! It takes time for a cycle of transition to take effect and lead towards something new. Sometimes it is faster and sometimes slower. Let's not forget that not so long ago mighty Apple and Samsung were in the doldrums also, and plenty of the same "experts " were also writing their obituaries! But they stuck to their guns and persevered! For my part, I would suggest BlackBerry do the same. I got a feeling that in the long run it will pay off!

PS I'm in for the long haul with BlackBerry as a consumer. Stick to your motto, "Keep Moving", deliver good new products and in as much as my meagre and limited income will allow I will try to stick it out. Last year when I bought my first BlackBerry device, the Curve 9360, most of my friends were teasing me, now that I have the Z10 and their IPhones are starting to die out and look dated and stuck, while those who own Samsung realize that theirs are overgrown toys, that has stopped and people now look different when I use my Z10...

Posted via CB10

Mister Sir

I will buy 10 shares if the stock price goes below $1.

alternator77

I really don't buy all this talk of the phones being over priced since a vast majority get their phones subsidized.
In emerging markets yes but not in the USA people will forget to feed their kids before they pass up the latest and greatest.

Posted via CB10

oboydjr

Q1 results was bad, but the way management handled them was atrocious. In my view, this was the first MAJOR stumble for Thorsten Heins, offering memories of the past leadership that just didn't get it. Rebuilding confidence with Wall Street will be challenging at best.

Posted via CB10

adonesc

Fuck Wall Street!

Posted via CB10

adonesc

Now as a follow-up to my overly long brainfart...this goes out to BlackBerry and whoever is in charge these days...

First of all, investing in another "new" BlackBerry OS7 legacy device is really irresponsible and wrong headed...there is a reason my former BlackBerry Curve 9360 is now boxed...as a consumer I got the Z10...and moved on and from sampling most of the comments here most other consumers have done the same...and if they haven't done so to a new BlackBerry device, a significant chunk of that blame falls squarely on your shoulders. For example the other day at work, one of my co-workers asked me what phone I was using. That co-worker was using a BlackBerry Torch and was looking to upgrade the device in the near future. When I told that co-worker that I was using a BlackBerry Z10, the person was surprised and asked me basically "what's that?" My co-worker knew next to nothing about the Z10. They had heard something about the BB10 OS and were somewhat aware of the Q10. Whereas when I said IPhone or Galaxy S4, I didn't need to say too much...I showed my co-worker what the Z10 can do (funny enough Time shift was known to my co-worker because a friend had mentioned it!!!!) and they where impressed no doubt. I don't know if it was enough to sway them to upgrade to a BB10 device, but I can only imagine what the proper advertising and marketing could do for these devices!

Which brings me to my second point. BlackBerry offers great products, but no one seems to know about them, besides dedicated BlackBerry users and technophiles. No matter how good your products are IF NO ONE knows about them then they will NOT buy them, they will tend to stick with what they know.

Ever wondered how Apple whose products haven't necessarily been better or more innovative than other brands, including BlackBerry, have sold soo well...duhhhhhhhhhh, marketing and advertising!!!! I'm not the biggest Apple fan, for reasons I care not getting into at this point, but I have to give them props for their marketing genius and savy. They crafted their image carefully by inserting themselves into popular culture, transforming themselves into an integral part of it, at least in consumer's minds. They created the need and demand for their products by making them cool, a lifestyle almost, the object that is most trusty and needed in your daily life when it comes to technology and staying connected. Has anyone seen the latest commercial for Apple, it basically talks about "all the lives it has touched " (I'm paraphrasing here mind you)! What was BlackBerry 's last comercial...I only remember a guy on a flying carpet...don't know what that has to do with BlackBerry?!?! Or it might have been a scene from "Alladin"...

Point being, that BlackBerry has to fundamentally shift how they market and advertise their products and who it is they are doing it to!!!! If you can't do it in-house then for god's sake hire someone who can, someone brilliant not merely good or adequate. Mediocrity is not an option at this point...you need genius!!

Keep your loyal base of customers by all means, keep your business clients hooked, after all there is no reason to tear down a good foundation. But for pete's sake, as you say "keep moving "!!! Movement truly is life, so as such you ABSOLUTELY MUST attract new customers and users and expand your base...otherwise....well it will more of the same we witnessed on Friday. Also, please get your operational shit in order...no more amateur hour!!!!

And a word to the wise, while I understand the reason for having the Q10 and the Q5, there will come a point in time when they will have to be left behind. They are selling now, and will continue to do so as long as there is a demand for them, but I will tell you, if customers got a better look at the Z10, or if you come out with something along the lines of a Z5 and successfully launch the flagship A10, I'm willing to bet that many would switch and not look back. I didn't...once I saw what Z10 can do...and neither has my mother who used a Curve for years...and now just recently became a Z10 owner. And if my mother who is pretty much close to being a ludite when it comes to technology , can upgrade her freaking phone and like it...imagine what you could do if you pulled your head out of your ass...

PS Did I already mention that investing in another "new " legacy device is a really bad f * * king idea?!

Posted via CB10

vansen

For one, it is highly improbable to fully execute a turn around in two quarters. I have never been one to fall victim to the emotional ramblings of short market volatility, I think Benjamin Graham would agree here. BlackBerry needs to stay the course realizing that the general US market (including their media) is undeniably after BlackBerry, particularly at the higher levels of the finance and media worlds; to what end is irrelevant. If one were to simply compare Apple's rise from near oblivion in the mid 90's to BlackBerry's today, I would chose BlackBerry. Apple was undoubtedly days from bankruptcy, whereas BlackBerry is not. Further, Apple's turn around was many quarters in the making (with all around media love and fascination) contrary to the short term speculations of the mass media outlets. Continuing with the analogy, Apple began to revive it's business with the never before seen quality in laptop computers with the MacBook series (including it's new OS) and it's shift to Intel, It was not the Iphone or the Ipad that can be credited for turning around their fortunes. Yet they leveraged their skills and vision for long-term execution. As such, BlackBerry, and rightly so, will be leveraging the QNX system from cell phones to mobile computing systems, that inherently takes time to execute. And with BlackBerry, you have a vertically integrated company that has greater freedom to increase its margins. There is a place for BlackBerry, and I for one will not succumb to short term judgements of the management when they have been sincere to their vision and transparent as need be. Certainly BlackBerry could have communicated their Q1 results better, but in the end, I cannot say that this act is sufficient for its demise. Their numbers are improving, from a long-term annual perspective. BlackBerry should ignore the "short-term" rambles of both the media and the market. Their business plan is in-depth and visionary. It would be a shame to allow what I call short-term arrogance to waiver the company's direction.

adonesc

Amen. Excellent comment!

Posted via CB10

Fnen90

Since 3 years ago. This is happening because BlackBerry's fault and it will be underneath the bottom soon.

buckwylder

Now's the time to buy.

Posted via CB10

buckwylder

BlackBerry is going to do fine. They expected this, even warned us about this scenario.

Posted via CB10

Damon67

Wow, a company breaks even after Venezuela without even having their Qwerty phone launched and the pessimists are out in force. The Z10 is an amazing phone but was never going to be a monster. Save your ultra negative for two quarters from now if they actually are losing money with the full global launch of their keyboard phones.

Posted via CB10

nabil114

6 dollars
7 maybe
If you think about it, fund managers buy at the bottom. Value investing
You can drive share price until sales start to grow.

berry_prasad

I would like to see again $6 range, then only I will buy.

kongee28

To save BBRY, there are 2 things for BlackBerry to take an action

1. Get WeChat (Asia Market), Kakao Talk (Asia Market), Instagram (World Market), Viber (World Market) to roll out in Native immediately. Skype in native too!

2. Do not delay updates based on local telco. Just roll out to every countries at the same time.

Muz81

Q10 was only released 2 days ago in Australia, Q5 is long way away yet. The analysts take only the current figures into the account, overlooking the fact that the Q10 the "BlackBerry pearl" is yet to prove itself. I strongly believe that financial analysts are only good at "explaining" or reacting to what has already happened. They are incapable of predicting the financial events though. The recent BlackBerry slump is their reaction of the past performance, and has little to do with the company's future potential.

SparkyBC

Next quarter you will start to see the big picture. You ain't seen nothing yet the worst is still coming imho. Devices sold is be worse than this quarter and more coming soon BS from thor and the gang,

Robert Burnett

All this because Q10 dosent have a desk charger and clock screen that stays on. WOW!!!
Blackberry, when are you going to listen to your customers??

bbiosdroid

Blackberry has a lot of valuable intellectual property that would be highly desirable to Apple, Google, or Microsoft, but their physical products are middling, and their word is worthless. I see the stock price languishing until the company is either taken over by another company, or a competent management team is installed.

Nick Shadow

There have been many predictions in the posts regarding the stock price of BB, and where it is going. With so many, so sure it is going down, way down (as a percentage) the situation presents great opportunity for wealth.

Empty the savings account, get a margin account, get cash advances on the CC cards, and go short. It is a lead-pipe cinch, place your orders.

No one KNOWS where a stock price is going, especially as one as volatile as this one. And since the people who have enough buying power to move it are not posting on this site, I am guessing nothing said here will have any effect on the market.

But, based on the predictions here, how could anything possibly interfere with massive profits gained from shorting this stock? The only downside I can foresee is the huge tax burden you will suffer.
Nick

rlaracue

Balanced but cautious analysis. I think the challenge with BB is overstating the importance of the enterprise market and the belief it is actually a long term strength for BB.

1. Android has exploded in market share not because of enterprise adoption but bc of the consumer. In fact one could argue Android is weakest when it comes to enterprise penetration - anywhere in the world.

2. Apple and Android were born (as smartphone power houses) on the back of consumer sales and appealing to consumer tastes. Apart from the still head scratching Alicia Keys move BB does not seem to fully embrace this market or believe its a key to their survival; hint it is bc it is for every smart phone vendor on the planet. Fail in the consumer space and you will suffer a slow water torture death (wrapped in a towel of denial). The strength BB has with consumers is built around the keyboard variants of their devices in certain countries but as the numbers show those people are staying with older OS variants or bailing to Apple or Android. While the Q10 is a quality device its market is likely limited to replacements/upgrades (versus a ton of net new users). The Q5, Z5 and other developing nation or low income buyer devices could change BB fortunes but they will be competing with BBOS devices and may end up being a Visa to pay Mastercard type of a move (the n of the BB market doesn't really grow much). The announcement that a new BBOS device is coming seems to indicate they are not sure about adoption of BB10 in those countries/markets.

3. More enterprises and governments have flipped the on switch to supporting Apple than every before and that trend shows no signs of slowing down. Android is finally starting to get tested more in enterprise environments and all major MDM vendors now support it. So the competition in the enterprise and govt space is going to get worse not better. Factor in the slow rise of W8M and you have a tough row to hoe

4. To win in the consumer space you need a killer device (which they don't have, yet) that checks all the boxes and to spend a ton on marketing. Think 1-3B a year (for years) in marketing. 3.1B in the bank may not be enough if sales and margins don't ramp up and soon.

5. BB10 Server will not only have to be better and cheaper than BES it will have to beat out the plethora of MDM apps out in the market today. Most enterprises are or have gone to either partial or full BYOD and as they did BES footprints shrank and MDMs expanded (to support iPhones, Windows, now Android). IT depts are looking for ways to dramatically cut admin costs and for some BES is a target (in terms of cost reduction).

So while I don't think BB is going roll over after one disappointing earnings call the road ahead is much harder than people believed at the launch of the Z10. It will take decisiveness, risk taking and military precision moves for the next 12mos to get back on the horse and run.

buckwylder

Everybody I know into this are buying more shares now. Everybody I have convinced to purchase a BlackBerry 10 phone, absolutely loves their decision. They all look at the staggering amount of awesome positives about the new BlackBerry 10 mobile computing experience and they're loving it. Because the devices are so good.

Posted via CB10

savingblackberry

Why does Prem Watsa think that the stock is worth in the $40's? I would take his valuation before anybody else's. He knows. He is smart. Only if this board and management stop procrastinating abd being greedy and take steps to change perception. $40 will be a breeze then. But with this useless baord of directors, i doubt much will happen. Watsa should get a hostile bidder to come in.

Data547

It's stunning how myopic those that think marketing can save the economic stability of a company. When an os has challenges that a solvent company would have mandated resolved. This before ever bringing a product to market.
The paucity of apps that professional people can actually use is not an indication of any quality control for a working company's perspective. Some apps work incredibly well. They are impaired by inability to work with functions where their use is truly necessary. i.e., the microphone function is wonderful, but it needs to be capable of working with more apps. Likewise, caller ID/call blocker apps are nonexisting, unless one loads an Android app.
Blackberry Link royally needs some attention or a radical programming redesign. It can't do a small percentage of the old Blackberry Windows desktop functions. The upgrade seems to not fix any of the misses.
Just upgraded Q10 software, and hoping for better function soon....

data5

robin11

Wednesday should have been the bottom with margin cuts from 50% to 25% and unmet margin calls sold out taking the stock down another $.85 cents, however, the outage in the Filippines will be used for yet another round of negative news so another $1 may yet come off. Also, lots of buyers are gun shy, especially with the annual meeting after the close on Friday, so shorts can easily push the price down further, hoping to trigger more stops.

invest999

It just amazes me how emotions can carry the day and instead of sitting back and thinking rationally, people lose sight of how they got to this point.
Let consider the following:
On April 29, there was the following headline "Q10 Buzz Spiking Shares".
On that day BBRY was up 0.48 or 3.20%.
On that day, Mark Sue from RBC raised his May-quarter (fiscal Q1) estimate for just BB10-based BlackBerry units to shipments of 2.75 million from a prior 2-million estimate. He’s maintaining an expectation for a total of 10.7 million BB10 smartphone shipments this calendar year. He now models Q1 revenue of 3.1 billion and a 10-cent loss per share, up from a prior 2.7 billion and negative 15 cents.

Guess what? His UPGRADED estmates matched the results of Q1.
At the time no one had any issues with these number and 15 share price was just perfectly fine.
And now these results warrant <10 price. Go figure, the sky is falling!

invest999

Just to clarify, I'm referring to results for BB10 devices and the revenue numbers.

lexluthorxx

It is at rock bottom ....if they muzzle the CEO and prevent his idiotic statements or remove him from his position. If they fail to make a decisive move regarding said CEO then the stock will fall further.

Teh Yang

All I can say is WAKE UP PEOPLE! Most people here are still deluded, I know I've kept saying this but I'll say it again until people tell me to shut up, but NOBODY cares about how good or how many features BB10 has, the fact is the Z10 and Q10 are WEAK, UNATTRACTIVE pieces of hardware that nobody wants. The best thing BBRY can do right now is completely redesign a new touchscreen and keyboard BB10 devices from scratch.

Teh Yang

This company is not going to survive by continuing to sell only to BBRY cults and fanatics. They need to do something with mass market appeal. Just continuing to add "features" into BB10 that most mass market users don't care about will do nothing. When you're dead last in app support and OS adoption you need a lot more than fancy OS features to be competitive!

zensen

Probably but I doubt its going to get any better until they start putting out larger device, a slider and android runtime 4.0 is out and about. so a year from now maybe 2 considering how slow BBRY moves.

2 years we'll see stability and by then we'll have forgotten about the playbook. we'll have their new tablet business (shell) and some new form factors

ron4540

Dip in... don't dive.

vlado091

They reach rock bottom, should I care? After they announce that Playbook will never reach BB10 even though they prommised and many of people bought that tablet because of that prommise. After they didn't released any current (good and stable) OS. I don't think so, I only hope that they bankrupt, so they learn a lesson once and for all. They cannot act like pricks and then not to expect problem. It is their fault, and now they need to deal with it...!

A234556

The acquisition of a large number of BlackBerry 10 gift of 3 months Skype unlimited pass certificate. Interested please contact Skype ID:chinatelecom158 .

FastLane228

with headlines like this and the other media bashing, it's possible..but I'm long bbry, Have this thread hit rock . LMAO

BBM CHANNEL C000EF854 < bbry stocks*C0004ABC9

gitchies

But I thought the Z10 and Q10 are epic devices.
Greatest BB since sliced bread?
Best phone ever?
Its gonna save the company!

markmall

The problem -- I believe -- is that OS 10.0 did not work for too many loyal customers. I think product returns are through the roof.

OS 10.1 could still turn these products around if it is not too late. My Z10 is wonderful with OS 10.1 installed. It immediately became one of my favorite devices ever.