The BlackBerry Santa Claus rally is in full force

Santa Berry!
By Chris Umiastowski on 23 Nov 2012 01:36 pm EST
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Stock market watchers often talk about the "Santa Claus rally" that tends to lift stocks towards the end of the year. But in the world of mobile technology, while Google and Apple have been getting hammered for what some say are poor financial results, Research In Motion is on a tear. RIM stock is up big over the last few weeks.

The BlackBerry maker's stock bottomed out on September 24th with a price of $6.31 and today it has exploded to nearly double that value, just shy of $12.00. It's not like you had to pick the absolute bottom to make money on this stock either. The stock traded under $7 for parts of July, August and September.

So why is it up? What's going on here exactly?

It comes down to market sentiment. If we look at the actual business situation, nothing has really changed at all. The company has been showing off pre-release versions of BlackBerry 10 for a long time now. We've known it looked strong. We've known it was to be delayed until Q1 calendar 2013.

But now I guess you can say we're even more sure of the launch date. The funny thing here is that the launch will take place in February. Hopefully early February, but I think likely later February. Yes, the launch event is in January, but devices won't ship until later, and that's the real launch. That's the date that matters. That's when RIM can book revenues for the new hardware, as it leaves the shipping dock.

The stock market is a funny thing. In the long term it is a weighing machine. Results are all that matter. But in the short term it is a voting machine. And even though the business situation hasn't changed, the votes are changing. People who had written the company off are now getting a bit more optimistic.

One example is Kris Thompson from National Bank Financial, one of the many Canadian analysts following the stock. He, along with some other bears, have issued more bullish reports lately. Kris is making a short-term bullish call because it seems the launch of BB10, happening on time, could mean more devices ship in February than he's originally expected. Reminder: February is the last month of RIM's quarter and year, so that month affects Q4 results big time.

The launch of BlackBerry 10 has analysts revisiting their financial models in full force. They're bumping up ASP forecasts (average selling price = the price carriers pay for RIM hardware). This helps gross margin and profitability. They're bumping up device shipment forecasts, which translates directly to revenue. This, along with positive media reports on the quality of BlackBerry 10, is changing people's perceptions about the company and causing investors to vote more in favour of the stock.

That's what makes the stock price go up.

Momentum is a funny thing. The positive media reports on BlackBerry 10 really jump started on the day the company announced the January 30 launch event. If you look at the analyst reports, they're almost 100% reactive rather than being proactive.

This, CrackBerry nation, is why analysts get a bad rap. They get picked on for being reactive too much of the time. And it's true. They are. But there is a reason for it.

You see, analysts are no better at predicting short-term stock price movements than anyone else. That's why I feel investing should be done over the long term. But the whole business of the financial markets is designed around short term thinking. So if a stock starts moving, analysts are compelled to write reports about it, even if nothing has really changed in the business. They start writing about how perception is changing on a stock. They become market psychologists. They do it because they are expected to say something. So just understand this truth rather than worrying too much about what analysts write with respect to short term opinions on stocks.

I'm thrilled to see the stock trade higher. I still own every single share I've ever bought. I'm only actually making money on the shares I bought 12 years ago. The rest of my shares are under water. I'm tempted to buy more. But I'm holding off until I get a better handle on the company's ability to hang on to service revenues. In a meeting I attended last week (which I won't elaborate on here, sorry) I'm just not feeling confident enough on that key point.

Anyway, if you're still sitting there wondering if you should buy RIM stock, you need to keep the following points in mind:

  1. It's going to continue to be volatile. You may profit in the short term. You may not.
  2. Don't blame anyone else for your decisions. It's your money, and you are ultimately responsible for what you do with it. No whining.
  3. If the launch of BlackBerry 10 doesn't get RIM back to solid profitability, I think the stock will collapse again. 
  4. But if the business does achieve solid profitability, it will go a lot higher. A lot. As in easily over $20 and likely towards $40. It all depends on how much of a profitability recovery they achieve. So there is no rush required.

Reader comments

The BlackBerry Santa Claus rally is in full force

61 Comments

I been increasing my position about three times a week as I move money around to invest. Now I got friends crying to me saying they should have listened.

:-D

Same here - I've been adding throughout the 7-8 levels and pumping it to my friends. They were obviously skeptical - almost 100% of them - until the market proves them wrong. I'm still holding on to every share.

One comment about the article - if RIM begins "pre-orders" for BB10 right after the launch on Jan 30, can't they book that as revenue? Or do they have to wait until they actually ship?

Answer:  They have to ship to book revenue.  When they take a pre-order they're taking your money without delivering anything to you in return yet.  So they have not earned the revenue.  They book it as cash coming in, and the corresponding accounting entry is a current liability.  When they ship, the liability goes away and they match it against revenue and cost of goods sold.

 

Anyway, if they are able to talk about strong pre-orders, the market will not care about actual revenue recognition.  They'll care about orders. 

Agreed - analysts will only care about strong pre-orders, and they should also see it in the operating cash flow... Hopefully RIM will emphasize that point.

If they manage to ship a large portion of the pre-orders in Feb, there could be a massive bump in recognized revenue as well for Q4.

Thanks Chris, great article.

There is a lot of time to get into RIMM. Enter slowly and avoid going all-in unless you have insider information. But that would be illegal...

The other thing I think that's moving the stock up fast right now is the number of people who have shorted the stock who are now covering their positions given that the sentiment on RIM is turning from negative to neutral (and even a bit positive now).

Nothing drives a beaten up stock up faster than the stock going up, and in the case of RIM soooo many people have shorted the stock. If the stock is going to go up, those people are gonna close out fast, which will keep pushing up... at least for a bit.

At least I think I recall hearing something like that somewhere before... probably from another article I read by Umi here on CB. :) 

It's funny how just 'talk' and speculation can affect the markets. But there's been more good news than bad lately which is a welcome change no doubt. As the excitement builds I can see their shares climbing even more, especially if marketing ramps up shortly.
BB10~Believe!

Greate post Umi! When you get a chance, give CrackBerry reader your insight on the sustainability of RIM's service revenues. IMO, this is the million dollar quesiton!

So interesting timing ... did you read Kevin's post from the COO interview?  I wasn't at that meeting ... but I did have another meeting that day where I drew my skepticism from.  However, from what Kevin is writing, the COO appears confident that nothing major has changed on the service front.

If that's true, it's very good news. 

Chris you say "I'm thrilled to see the stock trade higher. I still own every single share I've ever bought. I'm only actually making money on the shares I bought 12 years ago. The rest of my shares are under water. I'm tempted to buy more. But I'm holding off until I get a better handle on the company's ability to hang on to service revenues. In a meeting I attended last week (which I won't elaborate on here, sorry) I'm just not feeling confident enough on that key point."

Then you say "  However, from what Kevin is writing, the COO appears confident that nothing major has changed on the service front.

If that's true, it's very good news"

In other words Chris you don't have a clue what your talking about, you're just "feeling", boy oh boy.

As for your trading synopsis, I'm sorry but if you had a real handle on stock trading you could easily have made back your "under water shares" .As such I dismiss your whole analysis of why a stock moves up/down, I'm not confident you really know markets that well.

Sorry if my post seems harsh, it's not meant to be personal at all, I'm just not a fan of innuendo not backed by fact and then wavering when another (Kevin) makes a comment 180% to yours.

FYI, a "santa clause rally" does not happen in Nov , it's typically Dec 25 to first week Jan.

Go Blackberry 10 !

Hey Chris, is your skepticism based off the fact that corporations have to switch their entire BB server to the new BB 10 server? Or are there other reasons you are skeptical? I read your posts all the time, and I love how you list the pros and cons! Only if you were able to enlighten me on this one issue that I am still having a hard time deciphering on my model, I would be extremely grateful. Perhaps, you can explain to all of us where the service revenue really comes from.

Hey WilsonWang - no, the skepticism isn't related to BES at all.  In fact I think that's the most logical place where RIM can continue to generate good fees.  But instead of baking the fees into the monthly data plan (and having the carrier pay RIM), I think the BES business (and Mobile Fusion) should shift to a SaaS model.  Same revenue, just paid directly from corp to RIM instead of through the carrier.  

But with the vast majority of RIM's subscriber base being consumer (I wrote about this only a few days ago, did you see that one?) that's where my concern comes from on service revenue. 

Hey Chris, thanks for the reply. I read all your posts, so Im almost certain i read that one. The consumer side seems to be a bit disheartening as well. But isnt it almost required to pay that 4-5 dollars extra a month in order to use a blackberry? The other thing that fascinates me still is that so many large corporations just cant wait to get their hands on the BB 10. Some of my friends that work at places like Boeing, HSBC, Morgan Stantley all seem to be rquited to use a BlackBerry due to proprietary information. With this kind of demand from corporations to switch to BB 10, do you feel that the demand will be able to exceed 40 million BB 10s sold in fiscal 2014? Thanks a bunch for replying to my post.

Hey Chris, btw, i also did some research on my own and now i completely understand where you are coming from with your scepticism on the service revenue. Analysts are forecasting lower ARPUs going into the future due to the fact that RIM is expanding out to international markets where they wont be able to charge as high of a price, but i think the service revenue should at least remain flat for the time being. I mean, how big of an impace would it be on rimm? It seems with their market share decreasing year over year on a total unit sold point of view, their service revenue has been increasing. Despite the heavy criticisms, i would really like to hear your take on where this service revenue will be going with the forthcoming bb10s. If they have to charge a lower service price, then that is really starting to scare me as an investor...

Yeah, big rally for RIM stock recently. My dad bought some at $7ish, but he was too chicken to hold it for any real gains. I think the recovery is going to be a long road rather than a quick bounceback, especially with how many players there are in the smartphone market.

Hello, I personally believe that bb10 phones will be for sale in february. But I do not believe it has been confirmed that they will NOT be for sale on the same day as launch on january 30. Therefore I do not believe at this time it is a fair statement to firmly say they will not be for sale in january. Very far fetched that they will come out the same day but I think keeping facts 100% up to date and accurate is important.

Yes they did. At this point it is technically possible for a january release despite how unlikely that is (and I am also ASSUMING february). Saying february is technically an assumption as it COULD be January 30 or 31. I don't think release date assumptions should be stated as facts

"In a meeting I attended last week (which I won't elaborate on here, sorry) I'm just not feeling confident enough on that key point."

Umhhh Chris, if you have information on BB service revenue that has been revealed to you in a meeting that you won't share with CB readers, and yet you are investing in the stock that sounds a little dodgy...even if it's only an impression or a wink/nudge you have to be able to share it or you're walking a fine line into insider trading issues. I love your articles, but come clean on your info or don't invest in the stock.

Wow, you are just full of assumptions, aren't you?

 I didn't say who the meeting was with, nor what was discussed.  I didn't say what information was revealed (nothing that wasn't public, that's for sure).  I simply said I felt skeptical.  It all comes from my read of the delivery (analog information) not from the actual information (digital information).

I also haven't traded a share in a long time.  Last time was wen I bought more at over $20.

I'm walking a fine line only in your imagination. 

after seeing the stock rally from september lows to now, im making an appointment with my broker today to get in on the stock while the gettin's good! only thing that worries me is they still have to report their fiscal Q3 results... i have no idea what this will do to the price :S

Jasonvan9, call options for RIM are looking yummy for 2013 also,not for the faint of heart but something you might have your broker go over with you. Call options have great leverage/ limited downside and can work well along traditional long stock positions. Again ask your broker for more insight. Q3 for the most part shud already be baked into the price already, all eyes are on BB10 moving forward IMHO. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=RIMM&m=2013-01

Jason - don't take advice on trading here. Just don't. Anyone who tells you call options have limited downside is speaking out of line. The downside is 100 percent. That is the limit. As for options "working alongside" traditional positions, that's the same as saying corn can grow in a field next to soy. It doesn't mean they are related in any way. 

Just do your own homework and don't trust anyone else on a forum to give you trading advice. 

Chris, I said in my post to you not to take it personal, yet you do,lol.
If you had read my post to Jason you wud have seen and UNDERSTOOD that I had TWICE in that same post to Jason made clear mention for him to consult with his broker for advice, you know the type of advice a broker is QUALIFIED to give,duh. You will also have noticed I included IMHO.

Now in regards to "limited" downside of call options, the downside is LIMITED to your call option premium, but of course you took it upon yourself to define my words to fit your agenda.

Perhaps you need a brokers advice also to show you how to "straddle" your call options. Sorry I didn't expound on that first go around but then again I was not giving stock advice or trying to, just giving MHO.

You on the other hand have no clue what a "santa clause rally" is yet you title your post as such, then you proceed to inform us all of your stock trading abilities (NOT)and then post some BS about a meeting that clearly has been debunked by Kevin.

You're on shaky ground Mr.,go ahead and dig your hole deeper, matters not to me.

Right, the downside of a call option is "limited" to the 100% of whatever you invest in the option.  Option goes south, you walk away with zero dollars.  End of story.  

I wonder if all those people talking trash about RIM are the ones that are shorting the stock. I hope they feel the pain as the stock comes back with the increased positive publicity. There really seems to be a trend in the press representation and share price direction.

IMO there is too much fretting about the service revenue. The bottomline is that if BB10 is a failure, service revenue will not save RIM, the company will be sold much like Palm, end of story. However, if BB10 is the success we all know it will be, the existing service revenue will be safe and will likely increase over time as they find ways to leverage the uniqueness of BB10 into additional service revenue through vehicles, etc. I am not saying that BB10 is guaranteed to be a success (although I really hope so), but I am saying to focus on the service revenue is a bit of a red herring as in and of itself it does not really matter.

Agreed...what really matters is how well the new device is received, the rest will fall into place. I don't believe for a second they would develop an entire platform complete with new hardware and suppliers and not have margins factored in to be profitable. GO RIM.

IMHO margins play well for Blackberry. The carriers in some sense are held hostage to margins carriers have to pay to apple mainly because of apples market share (do as we please apple margins attitude).

Now picture a scenario where a Co. plays fair and equitable with the carriers in regards to margins, revenue opportunity that works for carriers and said Co. >> enter BLACKBERRY 10 , I predict the darling for carriers.

Some mention of this was made between the lines already in public. :)

@blackberryto - I think you're right to say that if BB10 flops, service revenue won't save RIM.  But I also think you've got it backwards.  If BB10 is a success, it doesn't stop service revenue from drying up.

The big debate comes down to what RIM is offering as a value in return for this fee.  It has, historically, been the following:

 

 

  • Security
  • Compression / efficiency
  • push email that actually works
  • BBM experience, which has grown into being a very big deal

 

 

The risk of this changing isn't specific to BB10 at all.  It's just that the launch of BB10 can serve as a catalyst for carriers to renegotiate terms.

Security is still there. But consumers generally aren't willing to pay for it.  Enterprise / Government will, and that's why Mobile Fusion and BES should be a SaaS business.

Compression still matters somewhat.  But I'm not sure how much.  I'd love to hear some carriers talk about this.  When most of our bandwidth use comes from downloading podcasts, streaming videos, buying games, and so on, compression can't help.  It's already compressed data coming to our devices.  But RIM can compress browser traffic, emails, and pretty much anything that isn't already compressed when delivered to us.

Push email?  Everyone gets that now (free) via the Activesync protocol.  For consumers, I don't think RIM is doing anything different than the other guys.  But when it comes to push data OTHER THAN EMAIL, there is opportunity for RIM to excel here.  Activesync (as far as I know - anyone want to confirm?) does not deal with anything other than the basic PIM functions.  So, for example, Facebook or Twitter push doesn't use Activesync.  But is RIM doing a better job of pushing that kind of data compared to Apple or Google?

Food for thought ... 

Chris, IMHO your NEGATIVE "food for thought" has zero credibility, my "food for thought" is that you are a wolf in sheeps clothing.

You are at Globe & Mail taking part in their fantasy stock picking challenge with $50,000 pretend money to play with since Sept. You still have about $9,000 in pretend cash not spent, your top stock pick is Apple and not even one share of RIM even though you are still sitting on $9,000 pretend money.

You talk a good game and that's about it,you in MHO are a bag of contradictions at best and just another Globe & Mail type trying to write your own narrative. The real question is : who are your handlers?

In a direct response to an analyst questioning if the service revenue could decline the CFO said "It's dependent upon the mix and our sub base growth, and certainly the U.S. decline in subscriber base has a big impact on that. And that's -- our focus is obviously maintaining our sub base and looking at opportunities, both within the U.S., as well as internationally and growing our sub base."

That hardly sounds like the service revenue is a sure thing. And if that is not food for thought - and if the CFO is not credible enough for you - than what is?

Hey Jake - thansk for posting the quote from Brian, their CFO.  I think he's very careful about what he says, and is answering questions honestly.  I don't have the exact quote  handy, but they've also said fees are under pressure from carriers, so it is absolutely the biggest risk facing RIM right now.  That said, BB10 looks great and there does seem to be a buzz returning to the name.  

"Wow, you are just full of assumptions, aren't you?

I didn't say who the meeting was with, nor what was discussed. I didn't say what information was revealed (nothing that wasn't public, that's for sure). I simply said I felt skeptical. It all comes from my read of the delivery (analog information) not from the actual information (digital information)."

Not calling in to question your ethics at all Chris, but if you drop a tasty nugget like " I'm just not feeling confident enough on that key point" concerning service revenue in an article about RIMM stock price I don't think asking the question is out of line. SR is a HUGE driver of RIMM's future success financially. I can see them taking a haircut on fees from carriers like ATT etc. in the US, and making it up on hardware sales, but RIMM has not been very transparent on what their revenue mix is going to be going forward...which leads one to assume the worst. It's a fair question, one you yourself have been asking in multiple blog posts here on CB.

You're back pedalling here.  

 Asking the question (which you should have done) is very different than writing what you wrote.

Sorry to tease you in my post, however it wouldn't be right to elaborate on the meeting.  The opinions I came away with?  Sure I can elaborate on that.

I believe that RIM is facing fee pressure from carriers.  Not rocket science, right?  They've said this publicly.  So when I'm interacting with people that know more about this than I do, I want to use language artfully to elicit a response.  I want them to react in a way that they can't plan in advance, so that I can judge (from the reaction) what's going on.

So I think RIM is not only facing pressure on the fees (obvious, public), but I think that executives have not finished negotiating with major carriers on what's going to happen to these fees when BB10 launches.

So Kevin had a meeting with the COO.  He posted his top Q&A from that meeting and #8 was a discussion on fees.  The public line is that these fees are not going away and there haven't been any major changes yet.  This is true from public financials.  But will it remain true?  I wasn't at that meeting, and you'll notice I made a mention of this in another reply, saying that if the fees don't change much it would be very good news.  That's true.  Yet it doesn't mean they aren't changing, does it?  It's simply an if/then statement.

 Until I have more info, I'm sticking to my original comment.  Service fees are a huge risk area for the stock, and I don't believe the major commercial details have been worked out yet. 

Chris you still sticking to your Globe & Mail mid Sept "touting" of apple, saying they are cheap at $700,lol?

I have to admit that the "Santa Claus Rally" is from Christmas to the beginning of the year. I do see Chris stating everything Apple on Twitter as to the iPad mini is so much better than any other 7 inch tablet even though Rene Ritchie over at iMore says different. I guess I'm concerned because his love for Apple might be bad for RIM in the long term.

Guys, don't get too hung up on titles and strict definitions.  If I had to reword it all to please everyone (which I really don't care to do), I'd write that RIM's SC rally is coming early this year.  Whatever.  

We pretty much all use Apple products on the Crackberry team.  I have 100% dropped Microsoft Windows at home.  I don't even run Parallels anymore.  No need.  iPad mini?  I think it's worth the extra $129 over Android competitors, but with the discounts on Playbooks, RIM still has the best price / performance  mix out there.  Bar none.  Unfortunately it can't stay that way.  They aren't able to continue losing money on unit sales longer term.  

 

"You're back pedalling here."

You're right, my apologies. Re-reading my first post I can see it was far too accusatory. Sorry, love your perspective on this stuff, and am pondering getting back into the stock with a bit of play money, but I'm unhappy with the the lack of transparency on RIM's part concerning their SR. It may just be par for the course for companies though, I'm by no means a pro investor so can't judge that and looking for any insight I can get.

Last time I owned the stock it was north of $15, it's probably better for my blood pressure to just stay on the sidelines and stick with boring stocks :)

I own lots of RIM - bought lots in the high twenties and have not sold - here are some points to consider:

1) I think RIM has a floor - worse case scenario, it would be acquired. Bernstein shows that its 'market value / subscribers' is very low. MSFT would purchase RIM just to lock down enterprise clients.

2) Service Revenues - I understand RIM was offering US carriers (some smaller one's) significant discounts 1 1/2 years ago. The current SR may be coming from the emerging markets and they may be more willing to pay these SR (given they are 2G and Blackberry still has pull)

3) I expect very strong support from Carriers. Apple crushes them and Google plans to compete with them. RIM, on the other hand, could increase the value of their Billing Systems (charge it to your phone) and is less of a threat than a major player (MSFT)

4) Mobile Computing is a massive market. Rising tide can lift all boats. I was hoping RIM could, by now, demonstrate an ability to make real $ from this. QNX doesn't count - the profits are too small to matter.

5) I think that that the insider ownership of RIM is a strong sign - Lax, Bass and Watsa own ~20% of the company. You can ignore them, but must remember that have skin in the game and are knowledgeable about RIM and its prospects.

6) I am not so worried about the specs on RIM's phone. I am waiting to see RIM partner with a heavyweight to help them - i.e Amazon, IBM, etc. Someone with deep pockets that will give RIM support.

7) The shorts are screwed. Lots of shared sold short and the momentum is going the other way. Last quarter was big for RIM - cash up in a quarter that was suppose to be a disaster.

I bought lots more RIM at 7.50...still the need the stock to go up, but feeling good this weekend.

Let's stop picking on each other (i.e. Tom Jasper) and keep the dialogue focused on issues. Lots of money to be made here...

I don't think rim is going to be bought/acquired if their stock goes too low. Allot has to happen before that will ever occur.

Hands down, I hope for all the best for rim.

Thanks John for looking out for me when those former washed up Bay St. types try to pick'in on lil ole me. ;)

I conquer on point 3),4),5)and big agreement on 7).

As for Globe and Mail (3rd rate trash heap), Margaret Wente shud be the first clue of the caliber of this rag.

?????? My take is that John was speaking about YOUR attacks on Chris. They create a foul stink in the air much like someone with chronic flatulates who won't leave the party. But hey, maybe I misinterpreted....

Calling out an apple shill is hardly an attack,lol. I suppose what really bothers me is the title of the post "Santa Claus Rally". Give me a break, RIM is moving up because of their hard work on BB10. To say it's a " Santa Claus Rally " is a slap in the face towards RIM. You may have missed the thinly veiled title and the innuendo in the post, I have not and as such call them as I see them.

FYI a "Santa Claus Rally" is after xmas to new year, the idea is that this is a lull period when stocks are not watched with many eyes, as such some stocks move up without merit or scrutiny.

It's obvious the OP has no clue what a "Santa Clause Rally" is or the OP intentionally has tried to dismiss RIM's rally as a "Santa Clause Rally", take your pick, both scenarios don't bode well for the intentions and/or intelligence of the OP.

I don't practice Scientology or NLP (as does the OP), strange Globe & Mail left that out of the bio. ;)

I hope that cleared up some gas for ya.

Go Blackberry

I think you are being a little thin skinned here in your negative interpretation of the title. Personally I'm committed to NEVER giving the other fruit company any more of my hard earned dollars, as you sound like you are, but it is a free country and Chris is free to make use of whatever technology he wants as does Blaize and others who contribute here. They are hardly cRAPPLE shills, so your point there loses you some credibility. As for the name of the rally, I think Chris has a little more money to spend on Christmas gifts for the family now vs.a week ago, so "Merry Christmas!" came early! Lighten up on the man

Tom, I was critical about the points you were trying to make so far, and your spelling in this last post is quite poor. But more importantly, the foulmouthing that you're reverting to now completely dissolves your credibility, at least for me. You are not being helpful for readers that are trying to understand the issues rather than shouting out our 'informed opinions' with our fingers in our ears...

TomJasper...what is your issue with RIM? Your negativity is quite obvious. This is Crackberry...we all follow RIM here.

You are 100% incorrect , I'm 110% behind RIM, in fact I see them being an $80 stock in less than 24 months! Re-read my posts and show me otherwise, it's not there. :)

Go Blackberry!

Hey John - great coments.  I think your #2 is the most important one you made (they were all good, of course).  The emerging markets affect service revenue ARPU, i.e. they take ARPU down and analysts usually (incorrectly) freak out over this.  I look at it differently.  Adding any service revenue is a good thing.  

in places like Indonesia, carriers pay about $2 to RIM per month.  In the USA, it is more like $4-6, and for a BES subscriber it's at the higher end of that range, possibly still in the $7-8 range like it used to be.

And I agree with you that service revenue will probably see LESS pressure from emerg. markets.  I'd love to see a breakdown of these revenues by geography.  I think we'll get a peak at this in annual filing which should be out sometime in March, following Q4. 

Planning to buy shares of RIM? Here's a few things to consider:

FACT - BlackBerry phones sales are up 25 - 30% in India, Africa, and many Eastern countries.

FACT - NFC payments in CANADA require RIM's assistance. RIM receives a service fee per transaction.

FACT - There are Billions of credit Card transactions per year.

A few other things to chew on:

- You see the size of the new BB10 phones? Do you know how big of a battery you can put in them? The new BB10 is going to have massive Battery life.

- The software is fast, and VERY user friendly.

- PlayBooks will receive BB10 software updates shortly after the NEW BB10's are released.

- 80 ( soon to be 84) Million BB users will all upgrade within 2.5 years. That's 33.6 Million per year. Add this to new phone sales, and you are looking at 60 - 80 Million phones per year.

- A spike is occurring in BBM subscriptions.

- The market for Smartphones is just beginning. This is a HUGE market.

- Buy low, sell High

- More and more people are having a chance to try the new BB10 software ( from carriers, to RIM employees, to people in the media, to government officials .... and guess what? They are loving what they see. This is why the stock is rocketing HIGHER. People talk ... you know )

- If BB10 is loved by many, and RIM can sell more phones then they use to, these shares are a 20 Bagger. You will be looking at RIM shares when they are at $80, thinking .... " Why didn't I buy them when they were at $12. I could have made a fortune"

- 180 Million shares are held by institutions
- 95 Million shares are shorted
- xxx Million shares are held by insiders

- There are less the 200 Million shares in play

- these shares can rise VERY FAST with just a bit of positive news ..... and we all know that there is nothing but positive news coming, right?

You be the judge ....

They need to improve their sell-through of their higher-end products. The Samsung is selling the Galaxy S3 and the Galaxy Note by the millions.

If you believe that the markets are the efficient then it is riding on the optimism of the Blackberry 10. It is about the expectations of the institutional investors. The next earning release is coming anyways. It will probably will drop the price of the stock.

They need to cut their R&D costs.

- Rezaur Rahman