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BBRY Earnings Eve: Place your bets on what's going to happen tomorrow!

Bull and Bear
By Kevin Michaluk on 27 Jun 2013 04:57 pm EDT
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If you've ever ventured into our BBRY Stock Forum, you'll know there are a lot of members here who pay close attention to BlackBerry's share price.

And on the company and investment front, tomorrow is yet another BIG day for BlackBerry, as they'll be announcing their Q1 2014 fiscal results (remember, the company's fiscal year is different than the calendar year, so that's not a typo).

So on the eve of the BBRY's earnings, I wanted to check in with a quick CrackBerry poll and see where all the BBRY investors out there are placing their bets (or rather, what they're thinking will happen tomorrow). Will earnings be more positive than what the street is expecting and will we see the stock go up? Or will the other thing happen. Cast your vote above and let's see where we end up tomorrow.

The number of short shares out there for BBRY is still extremely high, as it has been for several quarters now. That means a LOT of investors out there are literally hoping and betting for BlackBerry to not succeed (fyi... I hate these people). Many others, like me, are hoping BlackBerry will turn in a positive result that exceeds expectations.

Heading into tomorrow, the earnings previews have been really mixed. You see one company reporting that channel checks on BB10 sales are sluggish. Others are much more positive, saying sales are steady and the Q10 is moving, but there's not a full quarter of Q10 sales to report on (there's  no Q10 sales in the US for the period being reported). I honestly don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, but I will say I get that anxious feeling in my stomach thinking about it. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

One thing is for sure, and that's the fact we'll be here covering it. Earnings are early these days - they should cross the wire at 7am ET and the investors call will happen at 8am ET. Just hit the CrackBerry.com homepage and you'll find everything. Once the investors call is done, we're going to stay on the line and record a CrackBerry podcast. It's been a while, so I'm sure we'll have a lot to talk about. 

More BBRY News and Analysis
Visit CrackBerry's BBRY Investment Forum

Reader comments

BBRY Earnings Eve: Place your bets on what's going to happen tomorrow!

108 Comments
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I wanna invest but don't get the money I'm planning to invest till next week. Hopefully I don't waste a few thousand dollars.

Posted via CB10

My guess (I own stock first of all) is that it will rise early and come back down near mid-day with it closing slightly higher then opening.

Again my guess is that It will not be until next quarter with the Q10 US numbers that the stock will really climb.

Kevin what's your personal opinion on what's going to happen tomorrow. Now don't say you have no idea I know you do ;)

Posted via CB10

Honestly, I don't know what will happen... you could have what appears to be a good earnings report, but still see the stock go down. All depends on where the expectations sit.

I'm definitely anxious/scared... as mentioned below.. only 3 out of the last 12 earnings reports have we seen the stock go up. And right now you have a bit of a transition happening.. BB7 sales probably slowing down since BB10 is rolling out, but BB10 wasn't everywhere in this quarter (BB10 barely in it, and not in US at all). Lots of factors at play. And with so many sharts out there, feels like any less than positive news will probably be treated more severely than it is. 

Fingers crossed. That's it.

do you have an idea based on CB10 downloads? alot of us members would have downloaded it and there may be alot since CB10 is one of those top rated apps

There are just so many shorts that they will find some way to spin the results into a neutral or negative result, any good news will be highly downplayed as always.

I hope all the hedge funds that banked on the stock falling lose s ton of money. Common BBRY beat the street.

CB10- BlackBerry Z10

If someone has the time to post every negative link over the past 6 months (saying BlackBerry is doomed, epic fail etc).

I think it would be cool to see the contrast is as I anticipate a great turnout tomorrow for BlackBerry.

Hey all you shorters out there, have a good sleep tonight. Tomorrow is coming no matter how hard you tried to spread anti BlackBerry sentiment.

Posted via CB10

I predict quick drawback because of subscriber drop, but also a quick recovery and increase due to EPS and sales.

Would absolutely love 10 million BB10 sales, With 5 million Legacy sales, Ohh and a few 100,000 playbook sales!

Posted Via CB 10, BlackBerry Z10!

I had a client a few months back that received a whack of BlackBerry stock through his work and was considering them useless. I told him back last November to hang on tight to them as I believed BlackBerry was going to turn a corner once the new OS was out along with the new handsets. Then there's all the folks I told that the Playbook was going to get the 10 OS and not to sell or give them away. I'm hoping I was right on both counts! Up up and away BB stock!! Wish I owned some!

Posted via CB10

It would be a big mistake to forget the PlayBook. A lot of positive news would become of BlackBerry if they would give us something on our playbooks. I don't care if they offered a software adjustment say for 5 bucks. I love my playbook and I know a lot of others that do too. However we need the full bridge back at the very least!

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!

I think BlackBerry will have a blow out earning since Alec Saunders is going out party all the time based on what he posted on Blackberry BBM Channel. He seems less worries about BlackBerry compare to two months ago. This is just my opinion and you can not invest your hard earn money base on what I write here.

I am hoping that tomorrow we will see a rise in BB stock prices and that the 'shorts' who are currently hedging their bets against BlackBerry will lose their 'shirts'

Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10

History is not on our side -- stock price has only gone up immediately after 3 of the last 12 earnings calls, I believe. But I can still hope.

Looking to know if he will be interviewed tomorrow after the earnings call by any investment show.

Posted via CB10

Nah, we just been keepin it real. We share some sort of immunity to propaganda. I bet most people here also knew the WMDs in Iraq were bogus too despite being surrounded by "the majority" who bought that tall tale...

Sent from my iPuh-lease-as-IF

I predict we'll hear about better-than-expected sales in the UK, Europe, Canada, and the Middle East. I think that numbers from the United States will show a considerable improvement from last year, but will still be far short of what would be considered a "comeback" by most industry observers, which is to say that I think weak retail / sales performance in the U.S. will put a damper on what should be a great earnings call. Given that some analysts are looking to see BlackBerry's value in relationship to its marketshare in the U.S., with the expectation that the world will fairly closely mirror the U.S. marketshare in the long run, I'd say Windows Phone 8's gains this year will also dampen enthusiasm a bit. I expect that Thorstein will continue to insist that the BB10 platform ecosystem is growing faster than Windows Phone 8, but the quantity over quality questions will begin to become more pronounced in reaction to such statements on this call. It's crazy stupid and must be infuriating to Marty Malick or Alec or whoever is tasked with such things, but I actually think that announcements of Windows getting a big name app or two around BlackBerry's earnings call could hurt BlackBerry's performance. It's that crazy right now.

BTW, having said all that, what really matters to me is that BB10 is awesome and it is. Since it's an earnings call, I won't get my way, but I'd love to see Thor announce that they will release the A10, a new service, and a new tablet in July, but... I will bet that Crackberry provides the best coverage of any fan site covering an earnings call. Chis and Kevin have done an awesome job the last few cycles on this stuff...

Listen everyone, I have to apologize I have bad luck and I purchased some stock little over a year ago. Shortly after the first delay of BB10 was announced. The stock still hasn't recoverd, so sorry!

Posted via CB10

BlackBerry will beat the street but not by huge numbers. If TH has big announcement(partnership perhaps with Sony or lenovo) on top of beating the street then we might get a nice spike in the stock price. I'm long BlackBerry

Posted via CB10

Thor has been very quiet. He is up to something and he doesn't want it on the streets. I think in the near future he is going to make a big announcement and it's going to be good

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!

More likely Thorsten Heins has been quiet because BlackBerry has nothing to announce except more vagueness during the earnings reporting. Bob and Doug Mckenzie would have been better CEOs or at least more entertaining. ;-)

Posted via CB10 from the BlackBerry Z10

It's gonna be a drop no doubt. A few days later, its gonna rise. Investors hate any bbry related news

You have to be in the stock for the long haul. No matter what happens tomorrow the spinmeisters will be out to portray it as bad news. If the numbers are good, then it was a short pent up demand Hurst. If the numbers are bad, then BlackBerry is doomed.

The fact is BlackBerry has accomplished an amazing amount, launching a new system, getting the apps they have, etc.

BlackBerry is not going anywhere. It will be a long steady climb and the business world, which never was happy with iPhone, will come back.

And, if their mgmt software is better than the others, while not a huge revenue stream, it will solidify their business position.

All in time. Buy on dips.

Posted via CB10

I bought at around 8 so I'm already doing well. Glad I didn't buy Apple at $700 as that stock has just dipped to 393 despite Apple issuing bonds to finance future promised dividends. Although the value is still much higher than BlackBerry, the downward trend has to be concerning to Apple.

Posted via CB10

For certain, there will be something in the numbers or analyst call that will give the negative spin doctors to chew on. Subs, units in, units sold, service revenue decline, Thor's haircut, Alicia Keys song choice..... Sky has to be falling somehow

I'm betting we'll see earnings up, then the forbidden fruit will call on its minions to come out from under the bridges and attack, and we won't be allowed to have a single positive conversation in the forum tomorrow.

Moderators, spend your evening sharpening your troll hunting swords!

Posted via CB10

i really think we will see a squeeze tomorrow(q10 and BES10 outlook will blow everyone away),good luck longs,remember this:blackberry is the best and most manipulated stock in the world
nice work Thorsten Heins,the board,employees,....

It will go up then the market will hear something that they want to pick on and the stock will slide down.

Posted via CB10

Not this time,tomorrow thorsten heins will do the ALI thing. He and many people suffered enough.
Very sad day for shorters tomorrow. Pinatubo surprise tomorrow.

Be positive and think positively! Too much pessimism and negative prognostication without empirical evidence is baseless and useless. Cheers for success and prosperity for all!

The spin will be epic. The company has made too much money, huge tax burden. The company sold too many phones, not good. Too much profit, large tax burden. Just a blip, a last gasp before the death rattle. Stuff like that.

Posted via CB10

I hope I'm wrong, but my crystal ball says disappointing sales, but enterprise business doing OK

I think it'll be good news but I think the "sharts" will talk about the number as though it was a full quarter for the devices being out in the USA and hope no one notices when they read the articles.

Posted via CB10

Last night I had a vivid dream that BlackBerry's share price went up 65% (I'm assuming shortly after the report. I didn't dream the date, unfortunately). I also dreamt that my wife had not got her additional shares yet, which is something we planned to do today (So it's a bit like a nightmare). Sooo... we found out today that our plans are thwarted by the fact that the funds for my wife's share purchase will not be available for 3 - 5 business days. That means she won't have her shares before the report. 50% of dream has come true. Now to wait for that 65% appreciation. :-) Disclosure: Long BB and BBRY. Short on sleep.

I am in for xx,xxx shares so it's 50 cents earnings plus great guidance and surprise on BES guidance ! Shorts i hear crickets !

Posted via CB10

Stock goes up to 18.35 and back to 17.98 to end the day slightly above 18.
CachhhhhhinnnnnGGGGGG!!!!!
Sorry bears!

I predict better than expected earnings, Thorsten does it every time! If the short squeeze does not happen as a result this quarter. It will next quarter! I am invested and believe strongly in our beloved BlackBerry company!

Posted via CB10

If they can make money on selling 1 BB10 .... I'm sure that they can make a whole lot more selling 3M BB10

Tomorrow, I will buy more stock as it falls. Bb10 is awesome, and in time will sell. The negativity is still too strong. The carriers still push the hell out of Apple and Samsung. People I know, who love my BlackBerry nd said it was going to be their next phone,recently came out of the store with an iphone and the other a free Samsung Galaxy. This is on Canada for Christ Sakes! BlackBerry needs it's own stores. Period!

Where's my FULL BRIDGE Mr. Heins? Please return it!

BB will beat estimates (again) and the street will like this. . . the street will question service revenue (again) and the street won't like it (again) ...looks like it will break even to me. ..

No betting. Just facts. Tomorrow will not be "a gamble" of any kind, just BlackBerry sharing facts and numbers with us.

Posted via CB10

BBRY is a very volatile stock. BB needs to beat the street by a lot to be able to squeeze the shorts out. What might happen is sales higher than consensus, earnings higher than consensus. maybe constant or slight decrease in user base. however, if they don't beat consensus by a large enough margin and set a good trend, the shorts, and profit takers will bring the stock right back down to about today's closing.

The new Blackberry is an innovative and hard working company employs thousands of people in the globe.
I do not know why many people want them dead. Isn't a fair competition is good for the industry? Companies can bring new and productive mobile devices to the society. Shorting a company to death is brutal let alone creating misleading and false analysis to manipulate the SP. You tell me how can one respect the shorts. This is negative energy to the world. Making dishonest money out of someone's hard work.

I already have to explain to "regular" folk the difference between gambling and investing....a story entitled "Place your bets" doesn't help....seriously, I know people who think the lottery is better than the stock market...seriously

My take is that they will beat the consensus estimates for earning and sales...however, I don't think these will come in far enough over consensus to counter the slide in subscriber base which if I had to guess will drop to 72 from 76m in last quarter.

I am long the stock but realistic. The last earnings call was wonderful but did not stem the slide in share price due to (among other things) the 5m drop in subscribers from the previous quarter.

I don't think BlackBerry subscribers fall will reverse course until Q2.

Until then, I am long (and hopeful) that the street will see the drop in subscribers as the base before it turns upwards from Q5/10/Z10 and eventually A10 and H10 (crossing fingers) device sales.

Posted via CB10

I feel its all goona be expected results, maybe slightly better then expected. But I hope news is huge and the shorts eat it bad!!!

I don't understand why people are hoping on this quarter. Bb10 just came out. I'm betting on the second quarter! The Q5 in africa would boost blackberry for sure

I think we need a solid quarter to
1. Show investors that BlackBerry is not dying, but continuing to thrive and making profits. There is a need to counter this perception among a lot of the general public. A better perspective of BlackBerry as a company among the public will lead to more sales of BB10 devices.

2. BlackBerry needs more of the big name apps to be available on its BB10 platform. A solid quarter will give these developers more of a reason to develop for BB10 instead of continuing to sit on the sidelines.

Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10

Small increase in revenue and stock price and a small continuation of increases that BlackBerry will build on. Z10 and Q10 will be the reason for both.

Posted via CB10

Lost a ton of cash on BBRY being bullish. Since then been bearish only. After that started gaining money. Not enough to recover from my losses but just enough to ease the pain.

Posted via CB10 from BB Z10

Just remember this. When Apple was almost dead they were in fact worse off than BlackBerry was. That being said, I hope BlackBerry kicks some serious ass.

Posted via CB10

While this an important marker no doubt, I personally wouldn't make to much of it. This will hardly be the definitive word in BlackBerry.

The market cannot measure, in my opinion, what BlackBerry is actually worth.

Posted via CB10

Positive posting by BlackBerry. Negative stock prices. Cmon the sort sellers are not gonna let BlackBerry cost them $ with a big upsell. I suggest tomorrow may be a good day to take some profits and rebuy on the downturn.

Posted via CB10

I was lucky to buy in at $6.25 last Sept so even it drops a bit im still in profit zone

Posted via CB10

My crystal ball tells me: Stock price will be volatile but end flat with a mix of good news and not so good news in the earnings call. Earnings will slightly beat street concensus due to continuation of excellent cost management. Subscribers numbers will slightly decrease due to rate of legacy subscribers loss outpacing new BB10 subscriber gains. Android and iOS defecting to BB10 will be around 35 percent. Z10 sales slowing but Q10 sales more than making up for it. No solid numbers on BES10 or Q5 sales yet. Cash on hand will be lower than last quarter due to increase spending on marketing, incentives, and product launches. No announcement on future products. Guidance for next quarter is again break even. It's going to be a tug of war. Bulls will focus on the company's progress and the future, while bears will pick at transitional woes. With July 1 being a holiday in Canada and July 4 in the US, low market volume will result in meaningless swings in stock price in both direction. BlackBerry has several game changers in the works. Short term, the shorts may still be able to hang in, but if BlackBerry can execute their vision, those long BBRY (3 to 4 quarters) will be handsomely rewarded. The real question is, what can BlackBerry offer beyond the next 3 to 4 quarters to keep the momentum, keep moving, squeeze the shorts.

See a sharp rise in profits, those in shorts are gonna get screwed, i place bet for stock to outperform by nearly 20-30 % on immediate basis, long term 4 quarters $ 40.

Best Business Recipe Yipeee = BBRY.

Posted via CB10

2nd quarter will be better. By then they should have it lots of countries, and it's summer so people are socializing spreading the word about BlackBerry 10

I think the "results" numbers will "beat expectations" but the current Quarter and ROY forecasts will be scrunized AND twisted/used as the basis to "sell off" the stock, despite an overall great report.

Let's not forget that the Q10 was on sale in the US ONLY for about 4 weeks of the quarter and that Samsung has released - I just heard - 2 (TWO!!!) Galaxy devices in that time frame.
... ALL this is information the short-sellers WILL use to leverage the $$ DOWN on TV-time analysis.

ALL the negative analysts have had to do - successfully, at that, time & again - is to create "reasonable doubt" that the GOING-FORWARD Quarters & BBRY's rest of the year won't pan out favourably or as the Co. predicts.

EVEN IF Subscriber Numbers hold steady or grow slightly AND Gross Margins are "respectable," the short-seller pressure on the share price WILL be OUTRAGEOUSLY STRONG.

After all, 41% of the total float is SHORT and THAT is an insanely compelling number!!!

On "good" numbers (slight beat all-round), I predict the shares (in Toronto) could go to CA $16.50 or even spike temporarily to CA $17.
On INSANELY GREAT numbers, they could even go over CA $18 for a short while.

Regardless, I'll predict the share price will END the day around CA $16 ($15.80 - $16.20).

If the numbers are "disappointing" in ANY WAY WHATSOEVER - even on something seemingly trivial or at a microscopic level - the price could drop immediately to between CA $ 9.75 and $12.50 and finish up below $12.

Let's hope I'm correct on the first and wrong on my latter assessments.

TIME TO DELIVER, HERR HEINS!!
Either way, YOU NEED MY MARKETING CONCEPTS & CREATIVE and FAST! ... I can meet on an hour's notice. In Waterloo.

I think it will be a modest report but no matter what happens, it will likely get spun negative. Too many shares held short means they'll be on the phones trying to sell a downside view.

Posted via CB10

Just a few hours away but I think things are going to shake out pretty flat within a pretty wide range around the estimated earnings. It's going to be tough to get normalized sales figures moving forward the way the BB10 phones are being released haphazardly around the world. Hopefully BlackBerry will provide some additional color around the sales numbers beyond just the reporting time frame to help make some sense of things.

Posted via CB10

The bit that concerns me is that I have only seen one z10 in the street and never seen anyone using a Q10. It seems so surprising. I am in the UK.

Posted via CB10

I'm uncomfortable with the poll. In fact I believe "Stock is going up but shorts and bears are very powerful and will fight to defend the $3 Billion they've put on the table lately. This will result in unpredictable waggles, depending of the bull decision. If major shareholders and some hedge funds rally "the cause", then they can lever to squeeze the shorts. If not, after a moderate storm, stock will come back to its $14-$16 range and then ride to the next level the $20s."
Oh, of course all the above is depending on what/how Thor will announce during E.R call ... but I'm pretty confident they'll beat street estimates, due to Q5/10 performance and unexpected BES10 penetration.
So I voted #1, but not sure the squeeze will happen this Quarter.

! I'M SO LONG I CAN WAIT !

This is the first time, I'm aware of any blackberry earnings. And I've been a fan for a long time. Does that mean something?

All the best BlackBerry I mean that with my heart love my Z10 love BlackBerry....will keep an extra eye on your stock...

Posted via CB10

6 months of Z sales at production rate of 1.5 million units per month,+
unknown increases in production,+ the Q, + all the good stuff, coming around the corner,,hold on to your hats.BB is not the old RIM and has been making great progress.they have product that can compete and profit margins are much more than they used to be,BBM,BES,QNX,all good stuff.Take it easy ,and stay long !

All I can say is that it's a good thing that BlackBerry waited to launch the Z10 & Q10 when the OS was relatively stable and not buggy.
Microsoft, it seems, can get away with unloading beta OS (ie. Windows 8) on users with little punishment for such audacious actions. Had BlackBerry launched with deficient software we'd be looking at stock price of $5.00 instead of the current $15.
All said and done I think if earnings are strong and sales meet or exceed expectations then we should see an improvement in the BlackBerry stock price.

Posted via CB10